BREAKING : Ukraine is turning the tables on Muscovite ulus , Ukraine's strategy to counter-attack

Igor Girkin talked about the state of forces after 100 days. Here is the translation.

 
Igor Girkin talked about the state of forces after 100 days. Here is the translation.

 
You are about 25-30 days from the start of the real counteroffensive. I honestly don't know if they will be able to sustain it, though.

Notice the Russian propaganda machine is in overdrive. The type of propaganda is not the propaganda of someone who is winning- it's all directed at intimidating anyone who helps Ukraine, or to portray Ukraine as a "lost cause".

If Russia was winning, the propaganda would be very different- it would be scenes of happy civilians returning to a normal life, everyone would be smiling and kids would be playing in the schoolyards.

SDonetsk convinces me that Russia is culminated. Meaning all infantry reserves are committed, there is nothing left to draw upon. Reason is DNR militias were sent into SDonetsk with no radios and bolt action rifles, backed up by Chechen guardsmen. The UA drew back to the fertilizer plant offering only slight resistance, waited until the RU infantry was fully committed, then came down on them like a ton of bricks.

Russia can't abandon SDonetsk, it would deny Putin the claim of "liberating" all of Luhansk Oblast. They are trapped into throwing more and more poorly equipped and unsupported infantry into a UKR buzzsaw. This is a terrible decision from a military perspective because the city does not have a significant strategic value. It is purely symbolic.

This year's conscripts aren't available until July, and RU is not able to properly equip the forces they have now. UKR has plenty of manpower reserves, they are just waiting for the equipment to arrive and the training to use it.

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You are about 25-30 days from the start of the real counteroffensive. I honestly don't know if they will be able to sustain it, though.
The counteroffensive really doesn't have to succeed (although it would be great if it did). The longer this war grinds on, the more gutted Russia's military will be.
 

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