Assessment of the first consensus prediction on climate change - http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1763.html Nature Climate Change(2012)(2012)doi:10.1038/nclimate1763 Received 31 July 2012 Accepted 01 November 2012 [Abstract] In 1990, climate scientists from around the world wrote the First Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It contained a prediction of the global mean temperature trend over the 19902030 period that, halfway through that period, seems accurate. This is all the more remarkable in hindsight, considering that a number of important external forcings were not included. So how did this success arise? In the end, the greenhouse-gas-induced warming is largely overwhelming the other forcings, which are only of secondary importance on the 20-year timescale. Professor Frame and Dr. Dáithí Stone, from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in California, have produced this report comparing predictions from the first Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report published in 1990, with global climate change data gathered over the past 20 years. Their analysis indicates that the global climate is responding largely as predicted by the first IPCC report, which included a range of predictions for global temperature increase to the year 2030. We are now at the midpoint of that period, and the data shows that the actual global mean surface temperature increase has been between 0.35-0.39 degrees Celsius, which is in reasonable agreement with the 1990 predictions. Professor Frame and Dr. Stone have compared the results from these models against observed changes. From the resulting study, it is highly unlikely that recent changes can be accounted for by natural variability alone.