A simple question about the (il)logical numbers

[teddyearp]

So, please someone tell me how the heck this adds up.

It is said that about 700,000 Arabs ("Palestinians") were made into refugees as a result of the 1948 Israeli war for independence, or the Nakba. I am not going to dispute which it was, nor if they were forced by the Jews or encouraged to leave by their Arab brothers.

Link: 1948 Palestinian exodus - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia

Now there are 6.5 million.

Link: How many Palestinian refugees are there today

That is an increase by 9 times. Even if we say there was a million, that is an increase of over 6 times.

That is where I am having some extreme mathematical issues. How the hell does his compute? Where did they all come from? the global population in 1848 is estimated to be about 2.52 billion.

Link: World population in 1948

Now it is about 7.2 billion.

Link: World Population Clock 7 Billion People 2014 - Worldometers

That is an increase of about 2.88 times. so I need someone to explain this huge disparagy in these numbers.

Thank you.

 

[Derideo_Te]

You are comparing apples and oranges.

Increase in the entire world population is births minus deaths over the time period irrespective as to where they may live.

Increase in one tiny segment of the population would also include immigration minus emigration for that specific area.

 

[docmauser1]

Increase in one tiny segment of the population would also include immigration minus emigration for that specific area.

Then why wouldn't arabs simply say 6,5 mln refugigolos ran away and are still running?

 

[montelatici]

There not 6.5 million refugees and descendants. There are 5 million. I think you are confusing the refugees with the approximately 6.5 million Palestinians in the Occupied Territories and Israel.

The 250K non-Jews that did not flee the Jew part of the partition are now about 1.6 million (Israeli Arabs).

The natural growth rate of developing countries at about 4-5% annually would result in the totals of population even higher over 66 years.

Nothing unusual. Based on the formula, using the starting population of 700,000 a growth rate of 3% annually and 66 years it is quite close. Here is the population formula online. Enter the numbers yourself and see what you get.

Exponential Growth Calculator=

 

[Roudy]

So, please someone tell me how the heck this adds up.

It is said that about 700,000 Arabs ("Palestinians") were made into refugees as a result of the 1948 Israeli war for independence, or the Nakba. I am not going to dispute which it was, nor if they were forced by the Jews or encouraged to leave by their Arab brothers.

Link: 1948 Palestinian exodus - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia

Now there are 6.5 million.

Link: How many Palestinian refugees are there today

That is an increase by 9 times. Even if we say there was a million, that is an increase of over 6 times.

That is where I am having some extreme mathematical issues. How the hell does his compute? Where did they all come from? the global population in 1848 is estimated to be about 2.52 billion.

Link: World population in 1948

Now it is about 7.2 billion.

Link: World Population Clock 7 Billion People 2014 - Worldometers

That is an increase of about 2.88 times. so I need someone to explain this huge disparagy in these numbers.

Thank you.

The so called "Palestinian refugees" that were created as a result of Arab aggression towards Israel, included the Jordanians as well. The mandate of Palestine in Transjordan ended the day Israel announced Independence. In what is Israel today, there were around 300 Max Arabs, a portion of which had invaded from neighboring Arab countries.

 

[teddyearp]

There not 6.5 million refugees and descendants. There are 5 million. I think you are confusing the refugees with the approximately 6.5 million Palestinians in the Occupied Territories and Israel.

Wrong. It was clearly stated in the site I linked that there are:

There are about 6.5 million Palestinian refugees worldwide. More than 3.8 million Palestinian refugees and their descendents displaced in 1948 are registered for humanitarian assistance with the United Nations. Another 1.5 million Palestinian refugees and their descendents, also displaced in 1948, are not registered with the UN. About 263,000 Palestinians and their descendents are internally displaced i.e. inside present-day "Israel".

And the link is from Americans United for Palestinian Human Rights. You definately cannot call that site a hasbara, nor zionist, nor Jewish propaganda site. And since you obviously didn't read the link before, here it is again (and yes, you will immediately find my quote there, unlike searching your links):

How many Palestinian refugees are there today

 

[teddyearp]

Increase in one tiny segment of the population would also include immigration minus emigration for that specific area.

One, I also ran it against the population increase of the United States which with your argument it would make sense to mention immigration and emigration. And over the given time it has a little more than doubled. I'll let you search the numbers yourself because:

Two, your argument is totally flawed IMHO as how does one 'immigrate' or 'emigrate' to and/or from being a refugee?

 

[montelatici]

Just insert the numbers in the formula and it comes up with the current population of the refugees. I don't understand what you are on about.

 

[RoccoR]

et al,

The largest problems with the issue of Palestinian Refugees in the Middle East, is the lack of a single and universal understanding of what it means to be a "refugee" versus "registered for refugee services."

All the refugees in the world are handled through the UNHCR (United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees); except for the Palestinians, which are handled UNRWA (United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees). Thus, there is a conflict with the practical definition of a "refugee;" and one in which has perpetuated the lack of settlement of the refugee issue.

(REFERENCES)

• 1951 Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees (CRSR), Resolution 2198 (XXI) adopted by the UN General Assembly
• UNRWA Consolidated and Eligibility Registration Instruction (CERI),
• 1954 Convention Relating to the Status of Stateless Persons (CRSSP),

(COMMENT)

The numbers of "refugees" are not based on a formula. Mathematics, per se (or "in itself"), don't enter into the determination. It is a determination by definition and eligibility.

Relative to the Arab Palestinian Refugee population, CERI sets the criteria which basically says that "Palestine refugees, defined as “persons whose normal place of residence was Palestine during the period 1 June 1946 to 15 May 1948, and who lost both home and means of livelihood as a result of the 1948 conflict.” The descendants of Palestine refugee males, including legally adopted children, are also eligible for registration."

The purposes of these CERI is:​

• to set out for the guidance of UNRWA staff, the persons and categories of persons who are eligible to register to receive UNRWA services and those who are eligible to receive services without being registered;​

• to describe the criteria, requirements and procedures for registration of eligible persons and groups of persons; and
• to describe the UNRWA services (relief and social services, education, health, micro-finance and micro-enterprise) that are available to eligible persons.
​

"UNRWA services are available to all those living in its areas of operations who meet this definition, who are registered with the Agency and who need assistance. When the Agency began operations in 1950, it was responding to the needs of about 750,000 Palestine refugees. Today, some 5 million Palestine refugees are eligible for UNRWA services." (SOURCE: Who We Are | UNRWA)

​

Now the question is basically, how did the number increase from 750,000 to 5 million. And the answer is not really difficult, but must be understood in terms of the language used. First, there is a difference between:

• Those considered "eligible for refugee services."
• Those that are "refugees."
• Those that are "stateless persons."

(Note: All true "refugees" are "eligible for refugee services;" but, not all those "eligible for refugee services" are true "refugees.")​

There is a difference between the definition of a "refugee" (in the CRSR) and those "eligible for refugee services" (in CERI). Both have quite extensive definitions, but clearly the CRSR does not include "descendants" in the definition of a "refugee" --- whereas, the CERI criteria for services does include "descendants" in the "eligible for refugee services."

Further confusion is amplified by the fact that CERI uses tricky language that sounds very familiar:

Persons who meet UNRWA’s Palestine Refugee criteria:

"These are persons whose normal place of residence was Palestine during the period 1 June 1946 to 15 May 1948, and who lost both home and means of livelihood as a result of the 1948 conflict. Palestine Refugees, and descendants of Palestine refugee males, including legally adopted children, are eligible to register for UNRWA services. The Agency accepts new applications from persons who wish to be registered as Palestine Refugees. Once they are registered with UNRWA, persons in this category are referred to as Registered Refugees or as Registered Palestine Refugees."​

There is a catch. The UNRWA is not permanent. Currently the General Assembly has extended its term to 2017. Under the CSRS:

"This Convention shall not apply to persons who are at present receiving from organs or agencies of the United Nations other than the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees protection or assistance. When such protection or assistance has ceased for any reason, without the position of such persons being definitively settled in accordance with the relevant resolutions adopted by the General Assembly of the United Nations, these persons shall ipso facto be entitled to the benefits of this Convention."
​

If, and when the UNRWA comes to term, the CSRS will assume coverage. The CSRS, like any other convention, is an enduring arrangement; and set in International Law. The definition of a "refugee" is universal within it.

When the UNRWA terminates, the number of Palestinians that are considered "refugees" today will drop from the 5 million number to the true number based on the definition used universally elsewhere around the world. Currently, under the universal CSRS definition of refugee, the number would be well less that 80,000; some estimate the number to be under 60,000 by 2017. That is because the International Convention (CSRS) would not apply to:

(1) He has voluntarily re-availed himself of the protection of the country of his nationality; or
(2) Having lost his nationality, he has voluntarily re-acquired it; or
(3) He has acquired a new nationality, and enjoys the protection of the country of his new nationality; or
(4) He has voluntarily re-established himself in the country which he left or outside which he remained owing to fear of persecution; or
(5) He can no longer, because the circumstances in connexion with which he has been recognized as a refugee have ceased to exist, continue to refuse to avail himself of the protection of the country of his nationality;

Provided that this paragraph shall not apply to a refugee falling under section A(1) of this article who is able to invoke compelling reasons arising out of previous persecution for refusing to avail himself of the protection of the country of nationality;​

(6) Being a person who has no nationality he is, because of the circumstances in connexion with which he has been recognized as a refugee have ceased to exist, able to return to the country of his former habitual residence;​

This would virtually wipe-out the status of any person who claims citizenship under the State of Palestine, or those that held the citizenship of another nation.

Most Respectfully,
R

 

[aris2chat]

So, please someone tell me how the heck this adds up.

It is said that about 700,000 Arabs ("Palestinians") were made into refugees as a result of the 1948 Israeli war for independence, or the Nakba. I am not going to dispute which it was, nor if they were forced by the Jews or encouraged to leave by their Arab brothers.

Link: 1948 Palestinian exodus - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia

Now there are 6.5 million.

Link: How many Palestinian refugees are there today

That is an increase by 9 times. Even if we say there was a million, that is an increase of over 6 times.

That is where I am having some extreme mathematical issues. How the hell does his compute? Where did they all come from? the global population in 1848 is estimated to be about 2.52 billion.

Link: World population in 1948

Now it is about 7.2 billion.

Link: World Population Clock 7 Billion People 2014 - Worldometers

That is an increase of about 2.88 times. so I need someone to explain this huge disparagy in these numbers.

Thank you.

Roughly 2.5 million in the middle east and 1.9 million within the WB&G listed as refugees.

 

[montelatici]

The numbers add up using the formula. Nothing unusual about the rate of growth.

 

[docmauser1]

There not 6.5 million refugees and descendants. There are 5 million. I think you are confusing the refugees with the approximately 6.5 million Palestinians in the Occupied Territories and Israel. The 250K non-Jews that did not flee the Jew part of the partition are now about 1.6 million (Israeli Arabs). The natural growth rate of developing countries at about 4-5% annually would result in the totals of population even higher over 66 years. Nothing unusual. Based on the formula, using the starting population of 700,000 a growth rate of 3% annually and 66 years it is quite close. Here is the population formula online. Enter the numbers yourself and see what you get. Exponential Growth Calculator=

We get an Exponential Drivel Calculator.

 

[docmauser1]

et al,
The largest problems with the issue of Palestinian Refugees in the Middle East, is the lack of a single and universal understanding of what it means to be a "refugee" versus "registered for refugee services."

All the refugees in the world are handled through the UNHCR (United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees); except for the Palestinians, which are handled UNRWA (United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees). Thus, there is a conflict with the practical definition of a "refugee;" and one in which has perpetuated the lack of settlement of the refugee issue.

(REFERENCES)

• 1951 Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees (CRSR), Resolution 2198 (XXI) adopted by the UN General Assembly
• UNRWA Consolidated and Eligibility Registration Instruction (CERI),
• 1954 Convention Relating to the Status of Stateless Persons (CRSSP),

(COMMENT)

The numbers of "refugees" are not based on a formula. Mathematics, per se (or "in itself"), don't enter into the determination. It is a determination by definition and eligibility.

Relative to the Arab Palestinian Refugee population, CERI sets the criteria which basically says that "Palestine refugees, defined as “persons whose normal place of residence was Palestine during the period 1 June 1946 to 15 May 1948, and who lost both home and means of livelihood as a result of the 1948 conflict.” The descendants of Palestine refugee males, including legally adopted children, are also eligible for registration."

The purposes of these CERI is:​

• to set out for the guidance of UNRWA staff, the persons and categories of persons who are eligible to register to receive UNRWA services and those who are eligible to receive services without being registered;​

• to describe the criteria, requirements and procedures for registration of eligible persons and groups of persons; and
• to describe the UNRWA services (relief and social services, education, health, micro-finance and micro-enterprise) that are available to eligible persons.
​

"UNRWA services are available to all those living in its areas of operations who meet this definition, who are registered with the Agency and who need assistance. When the Agency began operations in 1950, it was responding to the needs of about 750,000 Palestine refugees. Today, some 5 million Palestine refugees are eligible for UNRWA services." (SOURCE: Who We Are | UNRWA)

​

Now the question is basically, how did the number increase from 750,000 to 5 million. And the answer is not really difficult, but must be understood in terms of the language used. First, there is a difference between:

• Those considered "eligible for refugee services."
• Those that are "refugees."
• Those that are "stateless persons."

(Note: All true "refugees" are "eligible for refugee services;" but, not all those "eligible for refugee services" are true "refugees.")​

There is a difference between the definition of a "refugee" (in the CRSR) and those "eligible for refugee services" (in CERI). Both have quite extensive definitions, but clearly the CRSR does not include "descendants" in the definition of a "refugee" --- whereas, the CERI criteria for services does include "descendants" in the "eligible for refugee services."

Further confusion is amplified by the fact that CERI uses tricky language that sounds very familiar:

Persons who meet UNRWA’s Palestine Refugee criteria:

"These are persons whose normal place of residence was Palestine during the period 1 June 1946 to 15 May 1948, and who lost both home and means of livelihood as a result of the 1948 conflict. Palestine Refugees, and descendants of Palestine refugee males, including legally adopted children, are eligible to register for UNRWA services. The Agency accepts new applications from persons who wish to be registered as Palestine Refugees. Once they are registered with UNRWA, persons in this category are referred to as Registered Refugees or as Registered Palestine Refugees."​

There is a catch. The UNRWA is not permanent. Currently the General Assembly has extended its term to 2017. Under the CSRS:

"This Convention shall not apply to persons who are at present receiving from organs or agencies of the United Nations other than the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees protection or assistance. When such protection or assistance has ceased for any reason, without the position of such persons being definitively settled in accordance with the relevant resolutions adopted by the General Assembly of the United Nations, these persons shall ipso facto be entitled to the benefits of this Convention."
​

If, and when the UNRWA comes to term, the CSRS will assume coverage. The CSRS, like any other convention, is an enduring arrangement; and set in International Law. The definition of a "refugee" is universal within it.

When the UNRWA terminates, the number of Palestinians that are considered "refugees" today will drop from the 5 million number to the true number based on the definition used universally elsewhere around the world. Currently, under the universal CSRS definition of refugee, the number would be well less that 80,000; some estimate the number to be under 60,000 by 2017. That is because the International Convention (CSRS) would not apply to:

(1) He has voluntarily re-availed himself of the protection of the country of his nationality; or
(2) Having lost his nationality, he has voluntarily re-acquired it; or
(3) He has acquired a new nationality, and enjoys the protection of the country of his new nationality; or
(4) He has voluntarily re-established himself in the country which he left or outside which he remained owing to fear of persecution; or
(5) He can no longer, because the circumstances in connexion with which he has been recognized as a refugee have ceased to exist, continue to refuse to avail himself of the protection of the country of his nationality;

Provided that this paragraph shall not apply to a refugee falling under section A(1) of this article who is able to invoke compelling reasons arising out of previous persecution for refusing to avail himself of the protection of the country of nationality;​

(6) Being a person who has no nationality he is, because of the circumstances in connexion with which he has been recognized as a refugee have ceased to exist, able to return to the country of his former habitual residence;​

This would virtually wipe-out the status of any person who claims citizenship under the State of Palestine, or those that held the citizenship of another nation.
Most Respectfully,
R

I'm mucho pessimistic. The UNRWA is the largest UN outfit. It employs hordes of "palestinians" very much interested in their continued employment and perks (UN-marked cars, IDs, etc..) that come with it to perpetuate this refugigolo business. They won't give up their occupation easily, and the arab drums and trumpets of the "right of return" in the media, the UN and the halls of governments will insure their continous employment and perpetuation of the professional refugee occupation.

 

[RoccoR]

docmauser1, et al,

At the moment, I agree --- the Arab Palestinians have the upper hand on the issue, both politically and monetarily.

[I'm mucho pessimistic. The UNRWA is the largest UN outfit. It employs hordes of "palestinians" very much interested in their continued employment and perks (UN-marked cars, IDs, etc..) that come with it to perpetuate this refugigolo business. They won't give up their occupation easily, and the arab drums and trumpets of the "right of return" in the media, the UN and the halls of governments will insure their continuous employment and perpetuation of the professional refugee occupation.

(COMMENT)

Yes, "their continuous employment and perpetuation of the professional refugee" status reliefs the adjacent Arab states of any responsibility for the protection of the registered millions, intervention into complex emergency situations, life-saving aid to help with shelter, health, water, and education; and (most of all) repatriation, local integration, resettlement, --- what the UNHCR would call the "three key solutions."

The current success of the UNRWA is limited to perpetuating 6 generations of unproductive Arab Palestinians that cannot survive on their own without the welfare handouts provided in the budget. A 70%+ of the total UNRWA Budget (Total annual budget $907.9M+ in 2012) was paid for by the western contributors (the US, UK, EU, Sweden, Norway, and Japan); $644.7M in 2012. The Arab Palestinian has no real incentive to end the conflict when they can continue to siphon-off three-quarters of a Billion dollars annually, not counting what they derived from the various donor contribution events to support and sustain the failed State of Palestine government.

However the bigger danger is in the fact that there is an insider threat from the over 30,000 Arab Palestinian employees of the UNRWA, which owe an allegiance to the various terrorist groups. The UNRWA is suffering from the Stockholm Syndrome in both the workplace and the budget. It is much like the US Banking Scandal --- too big to fail --- and so we must keep it financially solvent --- to prevent the crisis.

The entire reason that the oil rich Arab nations in the Middle East and Persian Gulf pay very little of the UNRWA budget, is that they understand the corruption involved and the latent associations made with Middle Eastern and Islamic Extremists. They simply know better.

Most Respectfully,
R