A 30 Year Cycle of Massive Job Losses?...

Discussion in 'Economy' started by mal, Jan 16, 2010.

  1. mal
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    mal Diamond Member

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    A 30 Year Cycle of Massive Job Losses?...

    Here's the Data:

    Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

    From a Similar Economic Sitution in my Lifetime...

    Unemployment under Carter started an Upward Trend in about mid-1979. It went from about 6% to 7.5% by the time he Left Office.

    From there, under Reagan it Continued as the Recession came into Full Force.

    Unemployment Peaked at the End of 1982 at almost 11%.

    It took 2 Years to come down 3% and another 4 Years to come down another 2%.

    From it's Beginning to its End, the Carter/Reagan Misery/Recession's Unemployment Issues Lasted from Mid-1979 to almost 1989.

    It took 5 Years for Unemployment to Improve by 5% once it Finally Turned.

    Using that Similar Recession/Slowdown, we are Looking at Probably 2014 or 2015 before we see 5% again… If we do.

    Is it a little Odd that it's Apparently Repeated itself in a 30 Year Cycle?...

    30 Years Prior to that, from 1948 to 1949 Unemployment More than Doubled from 3.4% to almost 8%...

    Interesting... Probably Meaningless because it didn't Sustain... But Interesting all the same.

    What I do see as a Possibility is a Generational Shift.

    The WWII Generation started Slowing Down Economically at about the same Time in the Mid to Late 70's as the Boomers have in the Mid to Late 2000's.

    Difference?... The Girth of the Boom Generations Size by Comparison.

    It will be Interesting to see what the Affect of the Largest Generation's Obsessive Spending on Self coming to an End does to the Economy Long-term and if the New "Green/Conserve" Mentality can Boost this Economy once again.

    If you can, I would Invest in Retirement Facilities and Long-term Care!

    Nothing Personal Against the Boomers... Just Business! ;)

    Copyright ©2010 - americanfreepress.org/tha malcontent

    :)

    peace...
     
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2010
  2. Baruch Menachem
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    Baruch Menachem '

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    The 70's and 80's saw a huge shift in all kinds of economic activity. We went from a mostly metal economy to a mostly plastics economy. Technology changed and eliminated huge collections of jobs and the new ones were vastly different from the old ones, and because of business climate reasons, the new ones were in different places.

    Right now, it is not so much a cycle issue as an issue of really dumb government policy. Until we fix what went broke in the financial markets, it will only get worse. From what I can see of 0bama's fixes, he wants to compound the stupid, rather than fix it.
     
  3. mal
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    mal Diamond Member

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    You don't see ANY Generational Aspect?...

    :)

    peace...
     
  4. Baruch Menachem
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    Baruch Menachem '

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    The 70's and 80's were long term things. we made lots of bad policy choices, many of which were never fixed.

    I think, as a general rule, if you fix the stupid, it goes away. So if we make a wise choice with fixing Fannie, Freddie and the issue of toxic assets, that problem will go away quickly. If we make the problem worse, it will compound. It depends on what happens on a daily basis.

    Right now, I don't see any reasonable fixing going on, so we may be in for long haul misery. But if the right policies go in place, things may brighten real quickly.

    Clear up to Jan 21st 1981 there were problems with gas shortage issues. Reagan fixed that with a stroke of a pen. Unemployment was a harder thing to fix because so much else was going on.
     
  5. mal
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    mal Diamond Member

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    Well, unless it starts going UP again, it won't get as Bad as it was in the Carter/Reagan Misery/Recession of the Late 70's and Early 80's...

    :)

    peace...
     
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  6. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    Actually if the same metrics are used then and now now is worse. Inflation is understated by at least 5-10% based on dubious exclusions (energy + many others) and bizarre adjustments (hedonics is the most notorious but there are many others). Unemployment is very thoroughly undercounted even according to the BLS in fact based on 1933 measures (all unemployed non-institutionalized men 16 and over plus all unmarried women living alone) we probably passed the 1930s peak unemployment this past fall. Even allowing for the fact that the 1930s overcounted both the combination of inflation and unemployment now is at about 30-35. That in turn means that only food stamps (sole income for an estimated 2% of the population) and unemployment insurance are preventing mass starvation.

    But yes this a generational shift.
     
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2010
  7. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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    Food stamps have saved us from the embarrassment of the soup kitchens and the long lines. One in four Americans will soon be on food stamps to one degree or another.
     
  8. pinqy
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    pinqy Gold Member

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    Except energy isn't excluded. I'm curious as to what you think is...you're clearly not going off of the BLS site for your info. Hedonics is a well tested method of quality adjustment that's been used for decades for some items. If you don't account for quality changes, then you're not measuring the same thing. And you're probably getting your 5-10% from shadowstats...no one has been able to duplicate his calculations (or knows how he derived them). BLS has studied the matter, and studied it before it made its most recent changes Price adjustments 1996-2006 and the yearly difference is less than 1%, and in some cases hedonic adjustment results in a higher rate.


    [qutoe]Unemployment is very thoroughly undercounted even according to the BLS in fact based on 1933 measures (all unemployed non-institutionalized men 16 and over plus all unmarried women living alone) we probably passed the 1930s peak unemployment this past fall.[/quote]I'd like to see your references for that. There was no formalized definition for unemployed back then, and I'm not aware of any 1933 survey. The current rate is based on all unemployed men and women, so I struggle to see how you think the standard you mention is better. Or you're using a non-standard definition of unemployed. When studying the problem in the 30's it was decided that the best way to judge a person's actual role in the labor market is to look at what they're doing, not what they say they would ideally do. That's a little too subjective to be practical.
    The first systematic method of measuring unemployment started in 1941 and the definition hasn't changed much since then.
     
  9. mal
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    mal Diamond Member

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    Those in the Soup Lines back in the Day were Lucky to have a Shanty to Crash in...

    Those on Food Stamps today are Complaining about not getting a New Video Game...

    :)

    peace...
     
  10. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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    As previously stated, the so called Government Surveys of the economy and unemployment situation are totally bogus. Those who pretend that they have validity are just lying to themselves and to others if anybody listens to them.

    The fact remains that unemployment is way over twenty percent and may be as bad as 25 percent nationally. Surveys in California come back with a number in excess of 25 percent now. It is getting very ugly out there and with the Ugly will come the violence. Obama has had a year now and had done nothing except lie to the American People about the actual collapse of our economy.
     

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