2015, the beginning of ice free arctic?

Discussion in 'Environment' started by Old Rocks, Sep 5, 2012.

  1. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Gold Member

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    A blog, but many links to reputable sources. Such as the US Navy.

    Arctic News

    In conclusion, it looks like there will be no sea ice from August 2015 through to October 2015, while a further three months look set to reach zero in 2017, 2018 and 2019 (respectively July, November and June). Before the start of the year 2020, in other words, there will be zero sea ice for the six months from June through to November.

    And, events may unfold even more rapidly, as discussed earlier at Getting the picture.


    The image below, from the Naval Research Laboratory, shows the dramatic decline of sea ice thickness over the last 30 days.
     
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  2. skookerasbil
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    skookerasbil Gold Member

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    and?


    Is there a point to this thread?


    Actually, what we have here is somebody advocating for this to be the future of shipbuilding on earth......................


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    Last edited: Sep 5, 2012
  3. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Gold Member

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    http://marine.rutgers.edu/~francis/pres/Francis_Vavrus_2012GL051000_pub.pdf

    3. Conclusions
    [14] In summary, the observational analysis presented in this study provides evidence supporting two hypothesized mechanisms by which Arctic amplification – enhanced Arctic warming relative to that in mid-latitudes – may cause more persistent weather patterns in mid-latitudes that can lead to
    extreme weather. One effect is a reduced poleward gradient in 1000-500 hPa thicknesses, which weakens the zonal upper-level flow. According to Rossby wave theory, a weaker flow slows the eastward wave progression and tends to follow a higher amplitude trajectory, resulting in slower
    moving circulation systems. More prolonged weather conditions enhance the probability for extreme weather due to drought, flooding, cold spells, and heat waves. The second effect is a northward elongation of ridge peaks in 500 hPa waves, which amplifies the flow trajectory and further
    exacerbates the increased probability of slow-moving weather patterns. While Arctic amplification during autumn and winter is largely driven by sea-ice loss and the subsequent transfer of additional energy from the ocean into the high-latitude atmosphere, the increasing tendency for highamplitude
    patterns in summer is consistent with enhanced warming over high-latitude land caused by earlier snow melt and drying of the soil. Enhanced 500-hPa ridging observed over the eastern N. Atlantic is consistent with more persistent high surface pressure over western Europe. This effect has been implicated as contributing to record heat waves in Europe during recent summers [Jaeger and Seneviratne, 2011].

    [15] Can the persistent weather conditions associated with recent severe events such as the snowy winters of 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 in the eastern U.S. and Europe, the historic drought and heat-wave in Texas during summer 2011, or record-breaking rains in the northeast U.S. of summer 2011
    be attributed to enhanced high-latitude warming? Particular causes are difficult to implicate, but these sorts of occurrences are consistent with the analysis and mechanism presented in this study. As the Arctic sea-ice cover continues to disappear and the snow cover melts ever earlier over vast regions of Eurasia and North America [Brown et al., 2010], it is expected that large-scale circulation patterns throughout the northern hemisphere will become increasingly influenced by Arctic Amplification. Gradual warming of the globe may not be noticed by most, but everyone – either directly or indirectly – will be affected to some degree by changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events as greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in the atmosphere. Further research will elucidate the types, locations, timing, and character of the weather changes, which will provide valuable guidance to decision-makers in vulnerable regions.
     
  4. Dubya
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    Dubya Senior Member

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    2015 is also the year I and many others predict the arctic will essentially be ice free during the summer melt, though I don't think the sea ice free time period will expand that rapidly. Others on the Arctic Sea Ice Blog hold similar views.

    Arctic Sea Ice

    I'm also predicting another massive Greenland melt and exceptional weather over the next 3 years that will get the attention of the world. Maybe it's wishful thinking that the world will become aware of the need to prevent an ice free arctic. I believe with all the Northern Hemisphere June snow cover losses, we have about 3 years to save the arctic sea ice or situation will become irreversible.
     
  5. SSDD
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    SSDD VIP Member

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    Do you people never get out of panic mode?

    THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: New paper finds worst-case scenario is ice-free Arctic by year 2400

    Implications of Arctic sea ice changes for NorthAtlantic deep convection and the meridionaloverturning circulation in CCSM4-CMIP5simulations - Jahn - Geophysical Research Letters - Wiley Online Library

    And in the "its nothing new...or unprecedented" department....

    THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: More evidence of alarmist bias at Wikipedia: Review paper finds periods of ice-free summers in Arctic during early Holocene

    ScienceDirect.com - Quaternary Science Reviews - New insights on Arctic Quaternary climate variability from palaeo-records and numerical modelling
     
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  6. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Gold Member

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    Implications of Arctic sea ice changes for NorthAtlantic deep convection and the meridionaloverturning circulation in CCSM4-CMIP5simulations - Jahn - Geophysical Research Letters - Wiley Online Library

    Abstract


    [1] Using CCSM4 climate simulations for 1850–2300 with four different future forcing scenarios, we show that the maximum strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) decreases proportionally to the applied CO2 forcing. This weakening of the overturning is caused by a reduction or shut down of North Atlantic (NA) deep convection due to a surface freshening. In the Labrador Sea, the surface freshening is caused by strongly increased liquid freshwater exports from the Arctic, which are largely due to the decrease in the Arctic sea ice cover. In the strongest forcing scenario (RCP8.5), the Arctic becomes summer ice-free by the end of the 21st century and year-round ice-free by the end of the 23rd century. As a result of the associated freshening, all NA deep convection ceases by 2145, which leads to a 72% (18 Sv) decrease of the MOC strength by the end of the simulation in 2300.

    Well, that is definately better than 2015, however, by the last few years of melt, I find that projection to be rather optimistic. Indeed, by the estimates of the people at PIOMAS, 2015 to 2020, looks to be more realistic.

    http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/12_Climate/sea_ice_PIOMAS_min.png

    At the turn of the century, had someone stated that the Arctic Sea Ice would be where it is today, I would have considered them to be unduly alarmist.
     
  7. SSDD
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    That is under the most exagerated strongest forcing senario predicted by climate models....as we know, reality and models aren't exactly compatable. Expect ice free summers in the arctic about the time hell freezes over.
     
  8. CrusaderFrank
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