JimBowie1958
Old Fogey
- Sep 25, 2011
- 63,590
- 16,760
- 2,220
Well, the 31 Democrat House members elected in 2018 that went for Trump in 2016 might want some facts, but that's only my best guess.
District ...Trumps margin of win
AZ-01...……....... just over 1 point.
GA-06...……...….. by 1.5 points.
IL-14...……..…... nearly 4-point win
IL-17...............slim 0.7-point victory
IA-01...…………. about 3.5 points
IA-02......…...roughly 4-point margin.
IA-03....................by 3.5 points.
ME-02....……... more than 10 points.
MI-08............….nearly 7-point win
MI-11 ...............more than 3 points.
MN-02............little more than 1 point.
MN-07 ......….nearly 31-point victory
NV-03 ............…......1 point
NH-01 ............….narrowly won
NJ-02 ............….nearly 5 points.
NJ-03 .........…...more than 6 points
NJ-05 ...............narrow 1.1-point
NJ-11 ............….just under 1 point
NM-02.........…….roughly 10 points.
NY-11............…..nearly 10-points
NY-18............….less than 2 points.
NY-19............…..nearly 7 points.
NY-22............….15-point margin.
OK-05................13-point victory
PA-08............….nearly 10 points.
PA-17 ............…….2.6-point
SC-01............….about 13 points
UT-04.........…...nearly 7 points.
VA-02.........…..3.4-point victory
VA-07.........……....6.5 points
WI-03...…………..Solid Democrat, GOP doesn't have a snowballs chance in Hell with this one.
So, I count 11 seats the Democrats will likely keep, with Trump getting only about a <3% edge.
I count 8 seats likely to flip to the GOP based on Trump winning by close to or over 10%.
I count 12 seats that are definitely in play, and being able to explain why Democrats voted to impeach the 2016 VOTERS will need more facts than 'Cuz we wanted to!'.
A 20 seat flip to the GOP in 2020 gives the GOP control of the House, 219-115.
If the GOP takes all the red districts and splits the blue districts (meaning they went for Trump between 3.1% to 9% margin), that is a 14 vote flip and a likely deadlocked House with an 8 vote margin.
Dems 235 - 14 = 221
Publicans 199 + 14 = 213
District ...Trumps margin of win
AZ-01...……....... just over 1 point.
GA-06...……...….. by 1.5 points.
IL-14...……..…... nearly 4-point win
IL-17...............slim 0.7-point victory
IA-01...…………. about 3.5 points
IA-02......…...roughly 4-point margin.
IA-03....................by 3.5 points.
ME-02....……... more than 10 points.
MI-08............….nearly 7-point win
MI-11 ...............more than 3 points.
MN-02............little more than 1 point.
MN-07 ......….nearly 31-point victory
NV-03 ............…......1 point
NH-01 ............….narrowly won
NJ-02 ............….nearly 5 points.
NJ-03 .........…...more than 6 points
NJ-05 ...............narrow 1.1-point
NJ-11 ............….just under 1 point
NM-02.........…….roughly 10 points.
NY-11............…..nearly 10-points
NY-18............….less than 2 points.
NY-19............…..nearly 7 points.
NY-22............….15-point margin.
OK-05................13-point victory
PA-08............….nearly 10 points.
PA-17 ............…….2.6-point
SC-01............….about 13 points
UT-04.........…...nearly 7 points.
VA-02.........…..3.4-point victory
VA-07.........……....6.5 points
WI-03...…………..Solid Democrat, GOP doesn't have a snowballs chance in Hell with this one.
So, I count 11 seats the Democrats will likely keep, with Trump getting only about a <3% edge.
I count 8 seats likely to flip to the GOP based on Trump winning by close to or over 10%.
I count 12 seats that are definitely in play, and being able to explain why Democrats voted to impeach the 2016 VOTERS will need more facts than 'Cuz we wanted to!'.
A 20 seat flip to the GOP in 2020 gives the GOP control of the House, 219-115.
If the GOP takes all the red districts and splits the blue districts (meaning they went for Trump between 3.1% to 9% margin), that is a 14 vote flip and a likely deadlocked House with an 8 vote margin.
Dems 235 - 14 = 221
Publicans 199 + 14 = 213
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