Zogby: The election is Kerry's to lose

DavidS

Anti-Tea Party Member
Sep 7, 2008
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New York, NY
Zogby's track record has been so erratic this year, he is bound to show John McCain with a slight lead over Obama this election. And I, for one, certainly hope he does. Nothing will energize the liberal base more than a lead by John Zogby, who boasts his own reputation for being the most accurate pollster... he's not. Rasmussen is. But don't tell him that.


http://www.zogby.com/news/051004.html


I have made a career of taking bungee jumps in my election calls. Sometimes I haven't had a helmet and I have gotten a little scratched. But here is my jump for 2004: John Kerry will win the election.


Have you recovered from the shock? Is this guy nuts? Kerry's performance of late has hardly been inspiring and polls show that most Americans have no sense of where he really stands on the key issues that matter most to them. Regardless, I still think that he will win. And if he doesn't, it will be because he blew it. There are four major reasons for my assertion:

First, my most recent poll (April 12-15) shows bad re-election numbers for an incumbent President. Senator Kerry is leading 47% to 44% in a two-way race, and the candidates are tied at 45% in the three-way race with Ralph Nader. Significantly, only 44% feel that the country is headed in the right direction and only 43% believe that President Bush deserves to be re-elected - compared with 51% who say it is time for someone new.



In that same poll, Kerry leads by 17 points in the Blue States that voted for Al Gore in 2000, while Bush leads by only 10 points in the Red States that he won four years ago.



Second, there are very few undecided voters for this early in a campaign. Historically, the majority of undecideds break to the challenger against an incumbent. The reasons are not hard to understand: voters have probably made a judgment about the better-known incumbent and are looking for an alternative.



Third, the economy is still the top issue for voters - 30% cite it. While the war in Iraq had been only noted by 11% as the top issue in March, it jumped to 20% in our April poll as a result of bad war news dominating the news agenda. The third issue is the war on terrorism. Among those who cited the economy, Kerry leads the President 54% to 35%. Among those citing the war in Iraq, Kerry's lead is 57% to 36%. This, of course, is balanced by the 64% to 30% margin that the President holds over Kerry on fighting the war on terrorism. These top issues are not likely to go away. And arguably, there is greater and growing intensity on the part of those who oppose and want to defeat Bush.



The President's problem is further compounded by the fact that he is now at the mercy of situations that are out of his control. While the economy is improving, voters historically do not look at indicators that measure trillions and billions of dollars. Instead, their focus is on hundreds and thousands of dollars. In this regard, there is less concern for increases in productivity and gross domestic product and more regard for growth in jobs and maintaining of health benefits. Just 12 years ago, the economy had begun its turnaround in the fourth quarter of 1991 and was in full recovery by spring 1992 - yet voters gave the President's father only 38% of the vote because it was all about "the economy, stupid."



The same holds true for Iraq. Will the United States actually be able to leave by June 30? Will Iraq be better off by then? Will the US be able to transfer power to a legitimate and unifying authority? Will the lives lost by the US and its allies be judged as the worth the final product? It is difficult to see how the President grabs control of this situation.



Finally, if history is any guide, Senator Kerry is a good closer. Something happens to him in the closing weeks of campaigns (that obviously is not happening now!). We have clearly seen that pattern in his 1996 victory over Governor Bill Weld for the Senate in Massachusetts and more recently in the 2004 Democratic primaries. All through 2003, Kerry's campaign lacked a focused message. He tends to be a nuanced candidate: thoughtful, briefed, and too willing to discuss a range of possibly positions on every issue. It is often hard to determine where he actually stands. In a presidential campaign, if a candidate can't spell it out in a bumper sticker, he will have trouble grabbing the attention of voters. By early 2004, as Democratic voters in Iowa and elsewhere concluded that President Bush could be defeated, they found Governor Howard Dean's message to be too hot and began to give Kerry another look. Kerry came on strong with the simplest messages: "I'm a veteran", "I have the experience", and "I can win". His timing caused him to come on strong at the perfect time. As one former his Vietnam War colleague of told a television correspondent in Iowa: "John always knows when his homework is due."



Though he is hardly cramming for his finals yet and is confounding his supporters, possible leaners, and even opponents with a dismal start on the hustings, the numbers today are on his side (or at least, not on the President's side).


We are unlikely to see any big bumps for either candidate because opinion is so polarized and, I believe, frozen in place. There are still six months to go and anything can still happen. But as of today, this race is John Kerry's to lose.
 
What an ass posting something this big. Kerry didn't have colorado, ohio, florida, indiana, virginia, etc all in play.

It all came down to florida and ohio and you guys "won".

So how's your home value, stocks and wages? If you own a business, how's business? If you make less than $250k and you vote mccain, you're a fool. Even those ppl are worried their jobs might be next if companies keep going overseas. Only millionaires should be voting mccain.
 
What an ass posting something this big. Kerry didn't have colorado, ohio, florida, indiana, virginia, etc all in play.

It all came down to florida and ohio and you guys "won".

So how's your home value, stocks and wages? If you own a business, how's business? If you make less than $250k and you vote mccain, you're a fool. Even those ppl are worried their jobs might be next if companies keep going overseas. Only millionaires should be voting mccain.

Only someone who wants someone else's money should vote for Obama.
 
Only someone who wants someone else's money should vote for Obama.

You nailed Bobo to a tee. Classic Socialist claiming to be something else.


Just like Obama.

America is about to elect it's first Marxist president, and give him a congress controlled by a Democrat Super Majority ran by the likes of Dodd, and Pelosi, and Reed.

Say Goodbye to the USA as we all know it.
 
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What an ass posting something this big. Kerry didn't have colorado, ohio, florida, indiana, virginia, etc all in play.

It all came down to florida and ohio and you guys "won".

So how's your home value, stocks and wages? If you own a business, how's business? If you make less than $250k and you vote mccain, you're a fool. Even those ppl are worried their jobs might be next if companies keep going overseas. Only millionaires should be voting mccain.

I appreciate your enthusiasm, but I've already drank the kool-aid. Obama's my guy. However, I must disagree with you. McCain is running on a social conservative platform and if you're a social conservative and think that McCain is going to enact socially conservative laws, then you should vote for him. If you're a fiscal conservative, you should vote for Bob Barr, because neither McCain nor Obama are fiscal conservatives.

The purpose for posting this was to give my viewpoint of the Zogby poll. He's erratic in his polling and has not been accurate.

I also believe that there will be either TIPP, GWU, Zogby or an AP/YAHOO poll this week that will show McCain with a 1 or 2 point lead in the national polls. All 4 polls have been erratic this election. What I'm saying is, don't trust one poll during one day. If a poll shows McCain in the lead, Paperboy will have an orgasm and probably require medical attention. Trust polls over a long range that show consistency.

Also, what's different about the polls this year is that they are not taking into account people who have already voted. There are estimates as high as 50% for people who will have already voted by the time the polls open next Tuesday.
 
Only someone who wants someone else's money should vote for Obama.

It isn't a coincidence that thr rich got richer while we got poorer.

Inflation went up because of the rich. Their pay went up, ours went down or stayed the same.

Obama is only going to do for 95 percent of us what bush did for the top 1 percent. Only a house slave would vote for mccain.

Under clinton it was ppl who made more that $100k, under obama its $250k. That's an extra $300 per $10k above $250k. The top 1 percent won't pend it like we will.

You're gonna repeat this montra all week, aren't you?

You're talking to people that don't make $250k jackass.
 
It isn't a coincidence that thr rich got richer while we got poorer.

Inflation went up because of the rich. Their pay went up, ours went down or stayed the same.

Obama is only going to do for 95 percent of us what bush did for the top 1 percent. Only a house slave would vote for mccain.

Under clinton it was ppl who made more that $100k, under obama its $250k. That's an extra $300 per $10k above $250k. The top 1 percent won't pend it like we will.

You're gonna repeat this montra all week, aren't you?

You're talking to people that don't make $250k jackass.

Careful! If you disagree with him, he'll put you on the ignore list.
 
I appreciate your enthusiasm, but I've already drank the kool-aid. Obama's my guy. However, I must disagree with you. McCain is running on a social conservative platform and if you're a social conservative and think that McCain is going to enact socially conservative laws, then you should vote for him. If you're a fiscal conservative, you should vote for Bob Barr, because neither McCain nor Obama are fiscal conservatives.

The purpose for posting this was to give my viewpoint of the Zogby poll. He's erratic in his polling and has not been accurate.

I also believe that there will be either TIPP, GWU, Zogby or an AP/YAHOO poll this week that will show McCain with a 1 or 2 point lead in the national polls. All 4 polls have been erratic this election. What I'm saying is, don't trust one poll during one day. If a poll shows McCain in the lead, Paperboy will have an orgasm and probably require medical attention. Trust polls over a long range that show consistency.

Also, what's different about the polls this year is that they are not taking into account people who have already voted. There are estimates as high as 50% for people who will have already voted by the time the polls open next Tuesday.

You would have never thought clinton would be fiscally responsible. But he was.

It is obama, pelosi and reeds job to prove me right. I don't see any bridges to knowhere in the near future.

And screw voting for mccain on social issues. For one, he's lying to the religious right. He used to be against all that. Called Falwell an agent of intollerance. The social conservatives hate mccain. That's why they made him pick palin.

And if i'm losing my home, I don't care if gays are getting married. And if my 401k got cut in half and my 45 yr old wife gets pregnant, I may rethink my anti abortion position. lol
 
Careful! If you disagree with him, he'll put you on the ignore list.

You can do that? Theres only one person I would do that to, and he ignores me so its cool. Haven't heard from him in weeks but he just called me a socialist. Should I go over and say hi? Lol.

These guys seem to be calling the american system socialism. Because what they are talking about, the bob barrs and ron pauls, is a totally new system that will mean radical change. A lot of people will end up broke under their plans to end medicade and social security.

So are republicans talking about the status quo or redical change. Why now one week before the election?

And didn't they get their way between 00 and 06? They raped the treasury and their leader showed us that government doesn't work. Now mccain is distancing himself?

ps. Just like mccain voted with the troops 30 percent and obama voted with them 70? Same stats from environmental groups. Heard it on npr.
 
Clinton had the benefit of a surging period of economic growth fueled by the Tech bubble, and a Republican congress elected with a mandate to balance the budget.

Obama will leave this nation even further in debt that anyone can imagine, and in ruins.

You are all fools if you vote for him, and get what you deserve.
 
Obama will leave this nation even further in debt that anyone can imagine, and in ruins.

You mean like Reagan and Bush did?

In 1981, the national debt was 997,855,000,000.00. By the time Reagan left office, the debt was 2,602,337,712,041.16.

When Dubyah took office, the national debt was 5,674,178,209,886.86. As of right now the national debt is 10,024,724,896,912.49. Add about 3 trillion dollars worth of bailout money to that final figure.

Please, don't tell me how a Democrat will spend, spend, spend when it's been Republicans who keep doubling our national debt every time they're in office.
 
Then how did our national debt increase every year of his presidency?

Compared to reagan bush and bush 2.

What you are referring to is the fact that rich bankers figured out how to take over the us by starting the federal reserve. Add up all our income taxes and we only pay off interest on the federal debt. The more we owe, the more they own us. So for 8 yrs now the mega rich corporations and top 1 percent weren't contributing as much, so as the debt doubled, we all now owe more. And $1 isn't really worth a dollar anymore.

So add up the taxes we lost when lehman and other firms found a trillion in offshore loopholes, and the irs looked the other way.

All those firms got bailed out. All the ceo's got golden parachutes. $700 billion bailout right at the end? And people want 4 more yrs occupation in iraq for $10 bill a month and wonder why the economy is bad?

So obama will spend, in america. His programs will help many americans. The gop spends on defense. That's socialism. How about invest in car manufacturing? People buy cars, governments buy defense. We need to cut defense spending in half and end bush buddy sweetheart deals.
 
Compared to reagan bush and bush 2.

What you are referring to is the fact that rich bankers figured out how to take over the us by starting the federal reserve. Add up all our income taxes and we only pay off interest on the federal debt. The more we owe, the more they own us. So for 8 yrs now the mega rich corporations and top 1 percent weren't contributing as much, so as the debt doubled, we all now owe more. And $1 isn't really worth a dollar anymore.

So add up the taxes we lost when lehman and other firms found a trillion in offshore loopholes, and the irs looked the other way.

All those firms got bailed out. All the ceo's got golden parachutes. $700 billion bailout right at the end? And people want 4 more yrs occupation in iraq for $10 bill a month and wonder why the economy is bad?

So obama will spend, in america. His programs will help many americans. The gop spends on defense. That's socialism. How about invest in car manufacturing? People buy cars, governments buy defense. We need to cut defense spending in half and end bush buddy sweetheart deals.

You're not answering me.

I run a business, I make a projected estimate on how much income I will have this year and make a budget based upon that projection. My expenses will never outweigh my income, because that would just be silly. Are you telling me that the most powerful country in the entire world cannot hire a good accountant to balance its books?

The national debt increased every single year under Bill Clinton. The budget went before the United States congress, they passed it, you sign it. If the budget isn't balanced, you don't sign the bill.
 

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