Zogby - Obama by 5.3

[DavidS]

www.zogby.com

According Zogby, who called for Kerry to win Iwoa and Florida in 2004, Obama is now up by 5.3 which is 5 off from the previous day.

Zogby's poll does NOT include people who have already voted. No polls do.

I've never seen a poll that has cut someone's lead in half in one day. I do not trust this poll whatsoever until it shows me some consitency.

 

[elvis]

consistently in favor of Obama.

 

[DiveCon]

www.zogby.com

According Zogby, who called for Kerry to win Iwoa and Florida in 2004, Obama is now up by 5.3 which is 5 off from the previous day.

Zogby's poll does NOT include people who have already voted. No polls do.

I've never seen a poll that has cut someone's lead in half in one day. I do not trust this poll whatsoever until it shows me some consitency.

its getting closer to election day, they are likely adjusting the polling sample rate to more closely reflect the electorate, instead of the massive over sample they have been doing of democrats
watch for all the polls to get closer in the coming days

 

[tymebeta]

Polls are crap by themselves.

I never understood polls anyways. I think I should be the one deciding how well or bad a candidate is doing. What's the point? How well or bad a candidate is doing according to other people shouldn't affect how I vote or think. Maybe it's affirmation for those who are weak-minded needing to know they are on the winning side.

 

[The Paperboy]

Perhaps they adjusted their models due to:

a. Republicans early voting is equal to Democrats according to Gallup

b. First time voters percentage will be the same as previous elections according to Gallup

c. 2/3 of Acorn registrations were bogus or already registered according to NY Times

 

[RetiredGySgt]

The Press use the polls to attempt to suppress voter turn out. The same way they try to declare a winner early on election night in the hopes of causing some voters not to vote.

The VAST majority of the TV press support Obama and want him to win. The press has been trying to influence our elections for years now and are getting more blatant about it each election. It has not been totally successful but they keep trying.

 

[DavidS]

consistently in favor of Obama.

Not at all. There hasn't been one poll this year that has gone from 10 to 5 in one day. Doesn't make any sense.

 

[DavidS]

its getting closer to election day, they are likely adjusting the polling sample rate to more closely reflect the electorate, instead of the massive over sample they have been doing of democrats
watch for all the polls to get closer in the coming days

Massive over sample of Democrats? Have you read the data from any of the polls or are you just spewing what FauxNews says? I mean, really... all polls do have slightly more Democrats than Republicans, just because there are more registered Democrats than Republicans in the country, but MASSIVE over sampling?

If we were talking about the DailyKos poll, sure I wouldn't have a problem, but Pew, Quinnipeac, BigTen, Rasmussen, Research 2000? Sorry, no.

 

[DavidS]

Perhaps they adjusted their models due to:

a. Republicans early voting is equal to Democrats according to Gallup

b. First time voters percentage will be the same as previous elections according to Gallup

c. 2/3 of Acorn registrations were bogus or already registered according to NY Times

I doubt a, but I'll give it to you because Rush and Hannity have been rallying the troops, there's really no way to verify b until after the elctions and C: polls don't use data from Acorn to find who is a registered voter. They pull out a white pages and they call people. The first question is "Are you a registered voter?" If they say "no" the call ends.

 

[The Paperboy]

Massive over sample of Democrats? Have you read the data from any of the polls or are you just spewing what FauxNews says? I mean, really... all polls do have slightly more Democrats than Republicans, just because there are more registered Democrats than Republicans in the country, but MASSIVE over sampling?

If we were talking about the DailyKos poll, sure I wouldn't have a problem, but Pew, Quinnipeac, BigTen, Rasmussen, Research 2000? Sorry, no.

Somehow I don't think you slept so good last night.

 

[DavidS]

The Press use the polls to attempt to suppress voter turn out.

Exactly. Finally someone supports my point. I've been saying this all along, that the press, who are all controlled by the alien empire of Neptune, have been trying to supress voters. Even though it's a well documented fact that if more people had turned out for Kerry in Florida and Ohio, he would've won.

Oh by the way, every single poll around this time in 2004 showed Bush winning by 2-4 points.

RealClearPolitics

The same way they try to declare a winner early on election night in the hopes of causing some voters not to vote.

The press has been wrong, in the entire modern history of cable news channels and election night coverage, once. The press has been wrong once and that was due to Florida.

 

[DavidS]

Somehow I don't think you slept so good last night.

I didn't. There was a car accident near my apt. in the middle of the night and the loud boom scared my 80 lb pitbull so much that he refused to leave the bed. So I had to sleep around him...which was not comfortable.

When

 

[DavidS]

Somehow I don't think you slept so good last night.

I didn't. There was a car accident near my apt. in the middle of the night and the loud boom scared my 80 lb pitbull so much that he refused to leave the bed. So I had to sleep around him...which was not comfortable.

When Rasmussen has Obama down within the margin, I'll worry. Zogby doesn't scare me so much. He called for Iowa and Florida to go to Kerry.

 

[The Paperboy]

I didn't. There was a car accident near my apt. in the middle of the night and the loud boom scared my 80 lb pitbull so much that he refused to leave the bed. So I had to sleep around him...which was not comfortable.

When

Hope no one was badly hurt. This will cheer you up: Rasmussen still has Obama +8.

So what's your take on Zogby? Did they adjust their model?

 

[DavidS]

Hope no one was badly hurt. This will cheer you up: Rasmussen still has Obama +8.

Well that's more bad news than good. Obama's stopped his climb and not where I wanted him to. I wanted him to be up by 10 in Ramussen before the polls started to contract.

So what's your take on Zogby? Did they adjust their model?

I don't have access to their data, but I do know that they only use 1200 voters, which is a smaller sample size. Every poll that uses a larger sample size has been consistent in the past week. Zogby's all over the place.

 

[Caligirl]

Well that's more bad news than good. Obama's stopped his climb and not where I wanted him to. I wanted him to be up by 10 in Ramussen before the polls started to contract.

No, it is still upwards. He had a seven point lead for two days straight followed by an eight point lead two days straight. It's his highest lead (as you know) for the longest stretch (that part is new). Here are the trends:

Rasmussen Reports: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election.

The people certain to vote or him is also close to 50% as well (48%) which makes the road for McCain even harder. Only 39% say they are certain to vote mccain.

 

[DiveCon]

Massive over sample of Democrats? Have you read the data from any of the polls or are you just spewing what FauxNews says? I mean, really... all polls do have slightly more Democrats than Republicans, just because there are more registered Democrats than Republicans in the country, but MASSIVE over sampling?

If we were talking about the DailyKos poll, sure I wouldn't have a problem, but Pew, Quinnipeac, BigTen, Rasmussen, Research 2000? Sorry, no.

yes, i've read the data, asshole
i'm not some stupid ass like you