Yield Curve Inverts For The First Time Since 2007: Recession Countdown Begins

[McRocket]

Update: The most prescient recession indicator the market just inverted for the first time since 2007.

Don't believe us? Here is Larry Kudlow last summer explaining that everyone freaking out about the 2s10s spread is silly, they focus on the 3-month to 10-year spread that has preceded every recession in the last 50 years (with few if any false positives)... (fwd to 4:20)

(...I don't know how to include the video - so here is the link to it...)

Yield Curve Inverts For The First Time Since 2007: Recession Countdown Begins


Not good.

 

[Zorro!]

Update: The most prescient recession indicator the market just inverted for the first time since 2007.

Don't believe us? Here is Larry Kudlow last summer explaining that everyone freaking out about the 2s10s spread is silly, they focus on the 3-month to 10-year spread that has preceded every recession in the last 50 years (with few if any false positives)... (fwd to 4:20)

(...I don't know how to include the video - so here is the link to it...)

Yield Curve Inverts For The First Time Since 2007: Recession Countdown Begins


Not good.

In the six months since you posted that the Stock Market is up 1,318 points.

Trump has powered through:

• i) yield curve inversion,
• ii) US-China trade war,
• iii) recession in Germany,
• iv) collapse in Chinese industrial production,
• v) contraction in global profits,
• vi) oil price spike,
• vii) BREXIT,
• viii) Trump impeachment inquiry,
• ix) Argentine default/Ford downgrade,
• x) Thomas Cook bankruptcy...

and yet

• risk assets close to all-time highs and
• US stocks on course for 30% annualized returns,
• global stocks 24%,
• commodities 17%,
• global IG & HY bonds 14%,
• US Treasuries 10%...

A breathtaking performance!

It seems to me that you have some value as a reverse indicator.