ScienceRocks
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Women Are Defeating Donald Trump
A series of national polls released on Tuesday showed Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by margins ranging from 5 to 11 percentage points â except for the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times tracking poll, which defiantly continues to show Trump up by 2 points. There isnât yet enough data from after Sunday nightâs debate to really gauge its impact, however. For that matter, the polls may not yet have fully caught up to the effects of the release on Friday of a 2005 videotape, which showed Trump making vulgar comments about women and condoning unwanted sexual conduct toward women.
For the time being, Clintonâs lead is holding at about 6 percentage points in our polls-only model, which gives her an 84 percent chance of winning the White House. Clintonâs chances are 80 percent in our polls-plus forecast.
But while weâre in something of a wait-and-see mode, one demographic split caught my eye. That was from a Public Religion Research Institute poll conducted on behalf of The Atlantic. It showed a massive gender split, with Clinton trailing Trump by 11 percentage points among men but leading him by 33 points among women.
To put those numbers in perspective, thatâs saying Trump would defeat Clinton among men by a margin similar to Dwight D. Eisenhowerâs landslide victory over Adlai Stevenson in 1952, while Clinton would defeat Trump among women by a margin similar to ⌠actually, thereâs no good comparison, since no candidate has won a presidential election by more than 26 percentage points since the popular vote became a widespread means of voting in 1824. To get to 33 points, youâd have to take the Eisenhower-Stevenson margin and add Lyndon B. Johnsonâs 23-point win over Barry Goldwater in 1964 on top of it.
Election Update: Women Are Defeating Donald Trump
Thanks women! Women are being rational, logical, pro-infrastructure, science, and education. WTF is wrong with you uneducated white males? Seriously, you're looking really bad.
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A series of national polls released on Tuesday showed Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by margins ranging from 5 to 11 percentage points â except for the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times tracking poll, which defiantly continues to show Trump up by 2 points. There isnât yet enough data from after Sunday nightâs debate to really gauge its impact, however. For that matter, the polls may not yet have fully caught up to the effects of the release on Friday of a 2005 videotape, which showed Trump making vulgar comments about women and condoning unwanted sexual conduct toward women.
For the time being, Clintonâs lead is holding at about 6 percentage points in our polls-only model, which gives her an 84 percent chance of winning the White House. Clintonâs chances are 80 percent in our polls-plus forecast.
But while weâre in something of a wait-and-see mode, one demographic split caught my eye. That was from a Public Religion Research Institute poll conducted on behalf of The Atlantic. It showed a massive gender split, with Clinton trailing Trump by 11 percentage points among men but leading him by 33 points among women.
To put those numbers in perspective, thatâs saying Trump would defeat Clinton among men by a margin similar to Dwight D. Eisenhowerâs landslide victory over Adlai Stevenson in 1952, while Clinton would defeat Trump among women by a margin similar to ⌠actually, thereâs no good comparison, since no candidate has won a presidential election by more than 26 percentage points since the popular vote became a widespread means of voting in 1824. To get to 33 points, youâd have to take the Eisenhower-Stevenson margin and add Lyndon B. Johnsonâs 23-point win over Barry Goldwater in 1964 on top of it.
Election Update: Women Are Defeating Donald Trump
Thanks women! Women are being rational, logical, pro-infrastructure, science, and education. WTF is wrong with you uneducated white males? Seriously, you're looking really bad.
~