Will We See Increased GOP Turnout in Red States and Districts?

[The Paperboy]

Combined with the early voting exit polls in Florida and Nevada I find this info interesting:

Obi-Wan is working on his update... He, like many of us, is always looking for one more piece of data to interpret...

Two interesting bits of anecdotal data, though. First, from Rob, a Campaign Spot reader in Texas:

While Texas will go solidly McCain as it did for Bush, I thought this was interesting. I live in Lubbock, TX a city of about 200,000 that went about 75-25% for Bush in 2004. In 2004 about 58,500 early voted in the county (total county pop is somewhat higher than city's 200,000), this year early voting was about 69,500. That's almost a 19% increase, and you can bet it's largely McCain support. No glum McCain supporters (as the AP reports) or apathy, or giving up, here.
Second, the Campaign Spot Hilton Head Bureau Chief (a.k.a., "Dad") is resigning in the near future to become the new president of the Hilton Head Republican Club. He mentioned an interesting anecdote to me recently. South Carolina in general, and the Low Country/Beaufort County portion of the state, are some of the most deep red sections of the country as you're going to find; in a year when traditionally Republican states Indiana, North Carolina, and Virginia has wavered, no one has contemplated any Obama movement in the Palmetto State.

Anyway, in this certain-for-McCain corner of this certain-for-McCain state, the wait on the lines for early voting have been... two hours. There's not a ton of locations, and not a ton of machines, which contributes to the wait, but still, that's an awful lot of enthusastic voters in a region considered completely uncompetitive. And even with the early rush, poll workers are being told to "expect the worst" on Election Day. There aren't any dramatic Senate races, House races, or local initiatives to drive all this; it is, as the Beaufort County GOP chairman puts it, "I have never seen our base as energized as they are about this election. The reason is we have never had two candidates whose philosophies as different as this year."

This won't make a difference in the electoral college; everyone has put Texas and South Carolina into the McCain pile since Day One. But it may make a difference in the popular vote nationwide. And if the GOP base is fired up and showing up in places like Texas and South Carolina, is there some reason it wouldn't show up in Indiana, North Carolina or Virginia? I suppose it's possible, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Link here

 

[Jon]

Voter turnout is higher in all states for both parties. It actually benefits McCain that the media is already reporting high voter turnout in favor of Obama. That's going to light a fire up the asses of the anti-Obama voters to go out and vote.

 

[jschuck12001]

Combined with the early voting exit polls in Florida and Nevada I find this info interesting:



Link here

What is the exit poll data in Nev and Florida?

 

[The Paperboy]

What is the exit poll data in Nev and Florida?

Link here

 

[Caligirl]

What is the exit poll data in Nev and Florida?

I believe this is a better link. Has other states too.

411mania.com: Politics - Democrats Expand Early Voting Lead In FL, NC, CO, NV, IA

-- In Florida, 2,872,459 votes have been cast. That's 38% of the total number of votes cast in 2004. Democrats now account for 46% of the vote, Republicans 38.2%, and Independents 15.8%.

-- In North Carolina, 1,847,860 votes have been cast. That's 52% of the total votes cast in 2004. That is a stunning number. Basically half (well, nearly half) the electorate in North Carolina has already voted. And there, Democrats make up 53.3% of the vote, Republicans make up 29.2%, and Independents make up 17.6%. 27% of all voters thus far have been black. By comparison, most polls have been figuring that black turnout in NC would be around 20%.

-- In Colorado, 1,291,571 votes have been cast. That is a stunning 60.1% of the full 2004 vote total. Updated party stats aren't available but according to the latest Public Policy poll of Colorado, which is the most recent poll of the state, Obama is leading among those who have already voted by 17%.

-- In Nevada, 443,211 votes have already been cast. That is 53.3% of the full 2004 vote total. Again, that means roughly half of all voters in the state have already voted. And while party breakdowns for the total aren't available, in the state's largest county (Clark County) which makes up more than half the state's voters, Democrats make up 53% of the vote, Republicans 30.1%, and Independents 16.9%.

-- In Iowa, 400,829 votes have already been cast. That is 26.3% of the full 2004 vote total. So far, 48.3% of the voters have been Democrats, 28.6% Republicans, and 23.1% Independents.

And here are some other states to watch which don't provide party breakdowns.

-- In Georgia, 1,572,293 votes have already been cast. That is 47.4% of the full 2004 vote total. 35% of voters so far have been black. Polls have been figuring black turnout at around 25%.

 

[jschuck12001]

Thanks to both of you. Thats NC # is staggering.

 

[The Paperboy]

I believe this is a better link. Has other states too.

411mania.com: Politics - Democrats Expand Early Voting Lead In FL, NC, CO, NV, IA

It is the exit polls in FL and NV I am referring to.