Why polling in 2016 ended up being so inaccurate and why it might not be a problem in 2020

[Billy000]

Tell me how you WEIGHT a NATIONAL poll for prez with Repubs/Dems/Independents in all 50 states when you only SAMPLE a couple thousand people???

It's entertainment and filler material.. So it LOOKS like they are covering the election...

Uh well the obvious answer to that is that multiple polls are done by different pollsters. You then look at the trend in the polls.

 

[flacaltenn]

Lol regardless of your personal experience, independents DO get pulled. I mean to suggest pollsters don’t is just ridiculous.

Then go find me a prez poll that has a statement in their methodology section about what percentage of DECLARED INDEPENDENTS were included in their sample population... I gave up looking years ago.... They are just FEEDING the divisive wings crap to stir them up and to help their paying clients LOOK like they are covering an election -- which they are TOO LAZY to actually do or put on their front pages...

 

[WTH_Progs?]

Biden still winning in the polls right? Say Billy, please bookmark your thread, TRUMP WINS BIGLY IN NOVEMBER

 

[flacaltenn]

Tell me how you WEIGHT a NATIONAL poll for prez with Repubs/Dems/Independents in all 50 states when you only SAMPLE a couple thousand people???

It's entertainment and filler material.. So it LOOKS like they are covering the election...

Uh well the obvious answer to that is that multiple polls are done by different pollsters. You then look at the trend in the polls.

You ever go READ a poll result?? There's a LOT more there than just the 2 numbers for Trump/Biden.. Every LOOK at their methodology section explaining HOW many samples -- HOW they were weighted? Hardly ANYONE including the talking heads and net anchors do,... That's why polls suck.. And will CONTINUE to suck...

NOT for the reasons in the analysis you stumbled across...

 

[Billy000]

Lol regardless of your personal experience, independents DO get pulled. I mean to suggest pollsters don’t is just ridiculous.

Then go find me a prez poll that has a statement in their methodology section about what percentage of DECLARED INDEPENDENTS were included in their sample population... I gave up looking years ago.... They are just FEEDING the divisive wings crap to stir them up and to help their paying clients LOOK like they are covering an election -- which they are TOO LAZY to actually do or put on their front pages...

Okay for one thing, your political ideology isn’t the main takeaway. What matters is who you plan to vote for. If your answer is neither the democrat nor the republican, they are obviously going to record your response. They aren’t going to ignore you. More importantly, many polls are designed to ONLY ask independents who they want to vote for because that is vital information. You act like independents are this fringe element to the polling process when they are in reality CRITICAL and always have been.

 

[Billy000]

Biden still winning in the polls right? Say Billy, please bookmark your thread, TRUMP WINS BIGLY IN NOVEMBER

You can bookmark this shit if you want, but clearly you don’t even understand the topic at hand. No one is saying Biden WILL win. No one is saying the polling won’t change within the next few months. This is simply about the accuracy of polls in general.

 

[WTH_Progs?]

Biden still winning in the polls right? Say Billy, please bookmark your thread, TRUMP WINS BIGLY IN NOVEMBER

You can bookmark this shit if you want, but clearly you don’t even understand the topic at hand. No one is saying Biden WILL win. No one is saying the polling won’t change within the next few months. This is simply about the accuracy of polls in general.

I understand the topic it alright, and this is the first time I've agreed with you, because it is shit.

No slight to shit however, in literal terms shit is useful.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

These polls are completely meaningless. Biden might not even be the nominee.

 

[toobfreak]

Lol you’re such an idiot.

Well said from the guy who wins polls here as the Village Idiot. After 2016, we don't need anyone to tell us, much less YOU, that polls are inaccurate and don't matter.

 

[Sun Devil 92]

This article I read gave a fascinating analysis on how polling in 2016 differs from today. Some of it is circumstance and some of it is pollsters learning from their mistakes. Here are some key takeaways:

1) Pollsters got it mostly right four years ago. They had Clinton winning the popular vote by about 3 percentage points. She won by 2.1 points. And they were right about the outcome in most states. But their research did not capture the full picture of voter sentiment in the upper Midwest that provided Trump with the margin of victory in the Electoral College.

2) Pollsters have been encouraged (since 2016) to increase the sample of non-college graduates, who not only tend to favor Republicans over Democrats but who are also less likely to want to participate in polls.

3) Late deciders. There were more voters in 2016 at this point in the polling process who were undecided between the two candidates. More importantly, Gary Johnson was polling at 10% in late August. By November, his approval was at 3%. 2020's third parties don't have nearly the same margins.

4) Likely voters. Pollsters are slowly but steadily moving to a model using public voter records to identify likely voters rather than a "random-digit dial" system that relies on respondents to report their voting participation patterns.

5) The polls in 2018 were much more accurate in predicting the election.

Polls show Trump is losing to Joe Biden. They said the same thing 4 years ago against Hillary Clinton

Polls got it wrong when they showed Hillary Clinton defeating Trump in 2016. But pollsters say surveys showing Biden over Trump are more trustworthy.

www.yahoo.com

You are getting very tiresome.

I'll bet your neighbors hide when they see you.

We'll see you in November. The only poll that really matters.

 

[Remodeling Maidiac]

Current polls are meaningless.

Trump's approval is on par with Carter and Bush 41 at this point during their reelection campaigns.

Says who, polls? lol

Yep. After all, polls were accurate for 2018’s election and generally before 2016 as well. They aren’t perfect but are historically reliable despite the hiccup in 2016.

Social media mixed with cancel culture and yall wonder why polls suddenly don't reflect actual results....