Why I believe that Trump will not be indicted over the Mar-a-Lago Documents

[Seymour Flops]

Just adjusted the terms of the wager we made. I noticed though that I fucked up. The original wager was one week. So you can choose if you want the loser to serve 2 weeks or a month.

You bet a month, and I called. I'm good with that, if you are.

 

[forkup]

You bet a month, and I called. I'm good with that, if you are.

Sure.

 

[meaner gene]

If it turns out I'm wrong, feel free to bump this thread endlessly.

So, here are my reasons:

1) Probably the most important: If they really wanted to indict him, they would have indicted him already.

They would have to present evidence that Trump's legal team would then be able to test, and witnesses that Trump's legal team would then be able to cross-examine.

2) Indictment would force them to reveal information that they want to keep secret. Really secret.

His lawyers can keep the DOJ busy for long past his life expectancy with motions and appeals. He can afford way smarter lawyers than the DOJ can.

In short, the only reason the DOJ hasn't indicted is because they haven't wanted to indict. I see no reason for that to change.

The flaws in your logic don't take the facts into consideration.
Why it's taking so long, is that Merick Garland throughout his career operated with slow but deliberate diligence. Never to do anything in haste without long deliberation.

As to having to reveal secrets in the process, This is where you ignore the facts. The document Trump admitted on tape to posessing, isn't top secret, but merely secret. A level which can be declassified without risking great harm to national security.

The Iran attack plans fall squarely within the secret classification

18 CFR § 3a.11 - Classification of official information.

www.law.cornell.edu

And as a military plan that was only drawn up at Trumps request, and not due to a DOJ concern, declassification shouldn't effect current national security.

So it is just a matter of time before Trump is indicted, and the real fight begins. As the charges carry 10 to 20 year maximum sentences.

 

[Seymour Flops]

The flaws in your logic don't take the facts into consideration.
Why it's taking so long, is that Merick Garland throughout his career operated with slow but deliberate diligence. Never to do anything in haste without long deliberation.

As to having to reveal secrets in the process, This is where you ignore the facts. The document Trump admitted on tape to posessing, isn't top secret, but merely secret. A level which can be declassified without risking great harm to national security.

The Iran attack plans fall squarely within the secret classification

18 CFR § 3a.11 - Classification of official information.

www.law.cornell.edu

And as a military plan that was only drawn up at Trumps request, and not due to a DOJ concern, declassification shouldn't effect current national security.

So it is just a matter of time before Trump is indicted, and the real fight begins. As the charges carry 10 to 20 year maximum sentences.

I'll hear this tape before I comment. Where can I find it? Link, please.

 

[SavannahMann]

I love the experts in Law. None of them have even driven by a Law School. But they are experts.

If it was as you say. The Government dare not share the evidence with a Jury. Then no spy or other person mishandling Classified Data would ever be tried or convicted.

Yet there are many who have been tried and convicted. And the Jury never saw the files or documents.

 

[forkup]

You bet a month, and I called. I'm good with that, if you are.

Seymour I want to make another offer. I'm not all that interested in taking somebody's hobby away so I want to suggest this.

You can either take of the month as per our terms or you can do something much more difficult but ultimately more useful.

You can make an earnest attempt at trying to figure out how it was possible that you were so sure that he wouldn't get indicted a few days before it actually happened and why I was sure enough to both contact you and raise the stakes a few days before it happened.

To put it in poker terms. Something I find a useful analogy in a lot of circumstances. You can choose to look at me as lucky and you unlucky, something that donks do. Or you can choose to try to figure out if you have a leak in your game.

It is your choice.

 

[surada]

Thanks for the shout out. So I'll start by rebutting this OP.

1) Your first reason in my view is flawed in its misconception in how the DOJ works. It is true that a grand jury has a way lower standard for handing down an indictment that the beyond reasonable doubt standard for conviction in a criminal trial. ( the reason for the "ham sandwich" standard saying.) However Federal Prosecutors despite what you think are usually very risk averse, and don't like the idea of the reputational loss that comes with indicting someone and then failing to secure a conviction. Times 10 when the defendant is a former president.

The Mueller report is a good illustration of that. I actually read the entire Mueller report and tend to agree with it's major findings. The problem is that the obstruction charges while airtight in the context of the facts are less so when adding the fact that the person doing the obstruction is the President. This adds a range of potential constitutional protections not available to any other person that MIGHT be sufficient to cast reasonable doubt.

In short it's a long winded way of me saying that the reason Trump wasn't charged with obstruction of justice after he left office is that the prosecution of that charge wasn't a sure thing.

This again IMO, is simply not the case in this instance. He isn't shielded from prosecution by his office and if anything the facts of the case are both more straightforward and even easier to prove in a court of law.

2) No the wouldn't have to reveal the actual information in the documents to secure a conviction. The documents don't require a classification in order to allow for conviction, simply a reasonable assumption that the revealing of those documents would harm the interests of the United States. That assumption can be shown by showing that the documents held a classification level. Because that is by definition what those markings mean. And nothing would prevent the FBI from attaining permission to de-classify some documents that are obviously national security documents and for which mitigation measures for exposing them to the public have already occurred. In fact that argument has already been stated by the special master who was pushed by the defence to allow them access to the actual information in the documents.

Think of it this way. If it would be impossible to convict someone for mishandling highly classified information because it risks exposure, people like Aldrich Ames would still be free.

Espionage and obstruction... 7 counts.

 

[frigidweirdo]

If it turns out I'm wrong, feel free to bump this thread endlessly. If it happens in the foreseeable future, I'll be off the board for a week since someone was finally brave enough to put up rather than shut up. That was poster forkup, who did not hesitate to take my wager challenge.



So, here are my reasons:

1) Probably the most important: If they really wanted to indict him, they would have indicted him already. The Mueller report assured us that the reason he was not being prosecuted was that he was a sitting president. On January 21, 2021, they still had all the evidence that Mueller uncovered. I'm not saying that it wasn't enough for an indictment. Prosecutors can (figuratively) get a grand jury to indict a ham sandwich. That's an ordinary grand jury with an ordinary defendent. How easy would it be to get a Grand jury in the bluest city in the nation, DC, to indict the Bad Orange Man.

For some reason they do not want to indict him. I think I know why, but I'm not a mind reader. If they indict him, the playing field is instantly leveled for Trump. DOJ/FBI hates that idea worse than the idea of being held accountable by the people's representatives in Congress. They can't force a conviction by threatening the family members of the jury, or raiding their homes and arresting them. They would have to present evidence that Trump's legal team would then be able to test, and witnesses that Trump's legal team would then be able to cross-examine.

They sure don't want that.

2) Indictment would force them to reveal information that they want to keep secret. Really secret. To convict Trump on a charge related to classified documents, they would have to show the documents to the jury. Then they will leak. If a judge agrees that Trump declassified the documents - and there is no legal reason not to agree to that - the public will have a right to know, even if the judge puts a gag order on during the trial.

It more and more appears that the purpose of the raid was to "get back," the Crossfire Hurricane binder documents. The ones that Trump declassified in writing and ordered released. The raid took place one week after Judicial Watch filed a suit to force the DOJ to honor the FOIA and hand them over. By getting Trump's copies, they prevent Trump from revealing the real documents if the DOJ releases fake ones or heavily redacted ones in response to JW's suit.

Even if Trump has digital or xerox copies, they hope he will fear to show them since he's already been raided for having copies. Their problem with that strategy is that Trump is too old and too rich to be afraid of prison. His lawyers can keep the DOJ busy for long past his life expectancy with motions and appeals. He can afford way smarter lawyers than the DOJ can.

In short, the only reason the DOJ hasn't indicted is because they haven't wanted to indict. I see no reason for that to change.

I'm not sure these are reasons not to indict him.

1) these cases take a long time, you can't just jump in, otherwise you will lose, they need to be 100% certain of success, and even then they might not make it.

2) Does the jury need to see the documents? No.

All a jury needs to know is that they were classified, and whether they have been declassified.

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

He's indicted.

He will roll over in a plea deal to not go to jail, and he will agree to being barred from office forever.

This is almost over.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

If it turns out I'm wrong, feel free to bump this thread endlessly