Who Thinks the Economy Will Be Back to January 2020 Levels by End of October This Year?

Where will the DJIA be by the end of this October, 2020?

  • Below 25000

    Votes: 8 57.1%
  • 25000 to 26000

    Votes: 2 14.3%
  • 26000 to 27000

    Votes: 1 7.1%
  • 27000 to 28000

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 28000 to 29000

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 29000 to 30000

    Votes: 1 7.1%
  • Over 30000

    Votes: 2 14.3%

  • Total voters
    14
I think if Trump has the Ecopnomy back to Jan 2020 levels of performance, he wins the election in a cake walk.

I think Trump will win regardless of the economy.

The reason is because the economy will be good or bad, based on how locked down, or reopened the states are, and the left-wing wants lock downs, and Trump does not.

So regardless of where the economy is, Trump is on the good side of the argument, and left-wingers are on the bad side.
Think you're smoking something Trump is never on the good side of an argument From his tariff war to the lateness fighting the virus he's been wrong right down the line and if you think different ,,,,YOU'RE FIRED

You have the right to be wrong.
 
I think if Trump has the Ecopnomy back to Jan 2020 levels of performance, he wins the election in a cake walk.
The DOW is NOT the economy.... You know that, right?
Yes, I know that, but it is a measure of the investors confidence in future growth of the economy.

What objective metric would you use instead of the DJIA?
GDP, employment, etc...... What is happening on the ground...

Only about half of every day Joe Americans are even in the stock market.....

And I'd like to see it back to normal too....

but the stock market has not been stable since Trump arrived.... the huge swings up and huge swings down, on a dime, and much without reason, makes it pretty unstable, and not an indicator of anything but a Mood Ring of nonsense....

The stock market is not a reflection of the economy. And putting money in the stock market is not investing, it is saving. And the stock market is at the level it is, not because of any fundamentals, but because, with interest rates damn near zero, it is the only place to put savings. It is at the level it is because wealthy individuals, who control most of the market, have been making out like bandits but have no real investment opportunities for their excess funds. So they "save" those funds by speculating in the market. The truth is, when real investment opportunities do show up, like when real income actually starts to grow, the stock market will tank as those wealthy individuals cash in their savings and invest in endeavors that create jobs and propel the frontier curve outward. At this point, a declining stock market is a better indicator of a healthy economy than one that continues to rise. A rising stock market indicates a dysfunctional economy that stifles small business and discourages real investment.
I'd like to agree with you but sadly we have differences Stocks tank , 100's of 1000's laid off and that brings on a healthy economy? What of all regular people with money in 401 K's or IRA's ? Saving for retirement ,seeing their investments crushed???

My parents saved and made a couple of million in retirement without ever risking their money in the stock market.... They went through the late 70s and early 80s with CDs paying 10% and up interest.... No risks..... every handful of years they doubled their savings....

Interest rates are so low, people are forced to put it in the stock market, which is risky...more or less, a rolling Ponzi scheme....
And no mention of the FED flooding the economy with money?? You'll have to forgive me but I'm heavily invested in the stock market and don't view it as a Ponzi scheme
Your viewpoint not withstanding it is indeed nothing more than a Ponzi scheme.

The economy tanks and the markets go up?

C'mon man, wake up.
Like I said ,it's a forward looking indicator There are folks on a higher limb than I that say when, NOT if , this virus is over our economy will climb higher Who am I to argue? And btw I'm an avowed Dem and believe a Biden presidency will bring the market down but he still gets my vote
It's not a "forward looking indicator". It's a mechanism to make rich people richer at the expense of us everyday schmoes.
You might not believe me but it hurts me to see you describe yourself that way but 30,40 years ago where was I going to put the little money I had ? How was I to save to buy a home ,put 2 kids thru college etc etc? I thought if I invested wisely my retirement wouldn't be a hardship and needless to say I got lucky
There has been no other choice.... there are no other options for safe savings at a decent interest rate, to get you ahead, any more.... I am agreeing with you....

But it still is too risky for comfort for me, and I do not have everything I have saved invested in it.... it's too scary for me.... :)
 
I think if Trump has the Ecopnomy back to Jan 2020 levels of performance, he wins the election in a cake walk.
The DOW is NOT the economy.... You know that, right?
Yes, I know that, but it is a measure of the investors confidence in future growth of the economy.

What objective metric would you use instead of the DJIA?
GDP, employment, etc...... What is happening on the ground...

Only about half of every day Joe Americans are even in the stock market.....

And I'd like to see it back to normal too....

but the stock market has not been stable since Trump arrived.... the huge swings up and huge swings down, on a dime, and much without reason, makes it pretty unstable, and not an indicator of anything but a Mood Ring of nonsense....

The stock market is not a reflection of the economy. And putting money in the stock market is not investing, it is saving. And the stock market is at the level it is, not because of any fundamentals, but because, with interest rates damn near zero, it is the only place to put savings. It is at the level it is because wealthy individuals, who control most of the market, have been making out like bandits but have no real investment opportunities for their excess funds. So they "save" those funds by speculating in the market. The truth is, when real investment opportunities do show up, like when real income actually starts to grow, the stock market will tank as those wealthy individuals cash in their savings and invest in endeavors that create jobs and propel the frontier curve outward. At this point, a declining stock market is a better indicator of a healthy economy than one that continues to rise. A rising stock market indicates a dysfunctional economy that stifles small business and discourages real investment.
I'd like to agree with you but sadly we have differences Stocks tank , 100's of 1000's laid off and that brings on a healthy economy? What of all regular people with money in 401 K's or IRA's ? Saving for retirement ,seeing their investments crushed???

My parents saved and made a couple of million in retirement without ever risking their money in the stock market.... They went through the late 70s and early 80s with CDs paying 10% and up interest.... No risks..... every handful of years they doubled their savings....

Interest rates are so low, people are forced to put it in the stock market, which is risky...more or less, a rolling Ponzi scheme....
And no mention of the FED flooding the economy with money?? You'll have to forgive me but I'm heavily invested in the stock market and don't view it as a Ponzi scheme
Your viewpoint not withstanding it is indeed nothing more than a Ponzi scheme.

The economy tanks and the markets go up?

C'mon man, wake up.
Like I said ,it's a forward looking indicator There are folks on a higher limb than I that say when, NOT if , this virus is over our economy will climb higher Who am I to argue? And btw I'm an avowed Dem and believe a Biden presidency will bring the market down but he still gets my vote
It's not a "forward looking indicator". It's a mechanism to make rich people richer at the expense of us everyday schmoes.
You might not believe me but it hurts me to see you describe yourself that way but 30,40 years ago where was I going to put the little money I had ? How was I to save to buy a home ,put 2 kids thru college etc etc? I thought if I invested wisely my retirement wouldn't be a hardship and needless to say I got lucky
There has been no other choice.... there are no other options for safe savings at a decent interest rate, to get you ahead, any more.... I am agreeing with you....

But it still is too risky for comfort for me, and I do not have everything I have saved invested in it.... it's too scary for me.... :)
I should be scared too but I've been through some ungodly downs and some crazy ups to let it scare me anymore Of course I'm concerned but putting it in a bank at 1% 2% isn't for me either and if you know how or have others helping you ,you could always use hedges for protection
 
I think if Trump has the Ecopnomy back to Jan 2020 levels of performance, he wins the election in a cake walk.
The DOW is NOT the economy.... You know that, right?
Yes, I know that, but it is a measure of the investors confidence in future growth of the economy.

What objective metric would you use instead of the DJIA?
GDP, employment, etc...... What is happening on the ground...

Only about half of every day Joe Americans are even in the stock market.....

And I'd like to see it back to normal too....

but the stock market has not been stable since Trump arrived.... the huge swings up and huge swings down, on a dime, and much without reason, makes it pretty unstable, and not an indicator of anything but a Mood Ring of nonsense....

The stock market is not a reflection of the economy. And putting money in the stock market is not investing, it is saving. And the stock market is at the level it is, not because of any fundamentals, but because, with interest rates damn near zero, it is the only place to put savings. It is at the level it is because wealthy individuals, who control most of the market, have been making out like bandits but have no real investment opportunities for their excess funds. So they "save" those funds by speculating in the market. The truth is, when real investment opportunities do show up, like when real income actually starts to grow, the stock market will tank as those wealthy individuals cash in their savings and invest in endeavors that create jobs and propel the frontier curve outward. At this point, a declining stock market is a better indicator of a healthy economy than one that continues to rise. A rising stock market indicates a dysfunctional economy that stifles small business and discourages real investment.
I'd like to agree with you but sadly we have differences Stocks tank , 100's of 1000's laid off and that brings on a healthy economy? What of all regular people with money in 401 K's or IRA's ? Saving for retirement ,seeing their investments crushed???

My parents saved and made a couple of million in retirement without ever risking their money in the stock market.... They went through the late 70s and early 80s with CDs paying 10% and up interest.... No risks..... every handful of years they doubled their savings....

Interest rates are so low, people are forced to put it in the stock market, which is risky...more or less, a rolling Ponzi scheme....
And no mention of the FED flooding the economy with money?? You'll have to forgive me but I'm heavily invested in the stock market and don't view it as a Ponzi scheme
Your viewpoint not withstanding it is indeed nothing more than a Ponzi scheme.

The economy tanks and the markets go up?

C'mon man, wake up.
Like I said ,it's a forward looking indicator There are folks on a higher limb than I that say when, NOT if , this virus is over our economy will climb higher Who am I to argue? And btw I'm an avowed Dem and believe a Biden presidency will bring the market down but he still gets my vote
It's not a "forward looking indicator". It's a mechanism to make rich people richer at the expense of us everyday schmoes.
You might not believe me but it hurts me to see you describe yourself that way but 30,40 years ago where was I going to put the little money I had ? How was I to save to buy a home ,put 2 kids thru college etc etc? I thought if I invested wisely my retirement wouldn't be a hardship and needless to say I got lucky
There has been no other choice.... there are no other options for safe savings at a decent interest rate, to get you ahead, any more.... I am agreeing with you....

But it still is too risky for comfort for me, and I do not have everything I have saved invested in it.... it's too scary for me.... :)
I should be scared too but I've been through some ungodly downs and some crazy ups to let it scare me anymore Of course I'm concerned but putting it in a bank at 1% 2% isn't for me either and if you know how or have others helping you ,you could always use hedges for protection
BTW always appreciate yours and crepitus's posts
 
Bingo!



The Dow Jones Industrial Average breached the 30,000-mark for the first time on Tuesday, as optimism that COVID-19 vaccines will open the way to economic recovery next year fueled Wall Street's rebound from a pandemic-driven crash this year.
Global stock markets sank in February and March as the novel coronavirus spread across Europe and the United States, abruptly halting a bull run that dates back to the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis.
While U.S. economic activity is reeling from the damage inflicted by lockdowns and employment is at levels last seen in 2015, a raft of monetary and fiscal stimulus has powered Wall Street's main indexes back to record highs.
 

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