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What is happening in Kazakhstan?

ESay

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Wouldn't that be in a wonderful make-believe world!
Better than jesus coming back but just as unlikely.

Neither China or Russia can ever afford to lock horns on any issue, now that America's might has been turned against both in deadly earnest!

But do expand on your theory! Where did you get it?
Had you heard something about Kazakhstan and its neighbours in Central Asia before? Or you became an expert of this region since January?
 

Siberian

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Several factors drove protestors into the streets in Kazakhstan:

Kazakhs are fed-up with corruption.


I am pretty much fed up with this matra beind said in every post of every Western poster, including you, Tom.

It is very frequent in Western press, is taken for granted and copypasted by all of you without really thinking.

People very easily tolerate corription if their level of life keeps getting better, and Russia is a perfect example.
Navalny made a bet on it in his CIA-manufactured film about the palace of Putin and failed.

Of course it irritates and makes people angry, but in countries like Ukraine or Central Asia or Caucasus republics corruption is as much a part of life of everybody as breathing.

I bought a piece of land in Crimea and am going to live there when I retire, so I have to deal with local beaurocrats while I build my house. There is nothing more awful on Earth, population of Crimea is predominantly Russian but 30 years of Ukrainian yoke/influence has spoiled them so much that I get shocked every time I have to deal with local administration. Nothing works properly and without bribe, contrarily to Russia. I imagine what they have in proper Ukraine....

Anyway, it is not corruption which matters much, it is rather greed and lack of civilization. Rural Kazakhs mentally live in 18th century and view both Russians and Russified urban Kazakhs as rich targets, they envy the very urban way of living, culture. It is a complex factor.

With corruption playing a minor role...
 
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Donald H

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Donald, with al respect to US milirary capability, it is lost in vain because your elite is so dumb to rely on force only.
Siberian, I'm a Canadian and not one who supports US aggression or any other country's aggression.
This is the reason US methods work with weak ones only. if at all.
While Putin is a very, very caucious strategic chess player, he even did not take Ukraine in 2014 while he easily could. 80% of Ukrainian army in Crimea now serves as Russian military, don't you know? I mean they just shifted to Russian army, and in the rest of Ukraine I presume the rate would have been around 50% if Putin started to seize the rest of Ukraine.
It would have been an easy walk if he was brave enough, but he is vcery, very, extremely, extraordinarily cauvious.
I can't call him a coward after Crimea and Syria, but in most cases when my personal and most Russians' blood is boiling demanding military action or response - he retreats.
Yeah, Putin doesn't want to invade Ukraine, but he will if it becomes necessary. If the US sends lethal weaponry to Ukraine and that costs Russian lives, he will have to invade. It can't be held back to a war of proxies. So it's bullshit that America can't do anything of course, they can do that.
He plays only if success is guaranteed.

This is why, by the way, I think recent escalation with the US will end with your complete defeat.
He would have not started the game if he had not 10 aces in his sleeve.
Maybe you'll change your tune with me now that you know I'm a Canadian and not a pro-war one. Think in terms of the US not winning the final battle against Russia/Putin but instead that Russia will never be defeated. Russia may have to turn to nuclear war.
So, coming back to Kazakhstan, situation there is 100 times more conplex than in any of US interventions, which you successfully completely failed.
I didn't fail.
It may be complex, and I'm interested in hearing your explanations why. But I see Kazakhstan as the biggest prize ever and the near certainty that the US will open up that front as it's primary objective. It literally has to in order to deprive both Russia and China.
Russian military presence gives us nothing.
Russian troops will complete withdraeal within days.
I think that Putin will see the best strategy being the same successful strategy being used by Russia in Syria. So I expect that Russia will maintain a presense in Kazakhstan and bolster it with air superiority. Otherwise the US moves in and turns it into another Iraq.

Now get your head around the fact that I'm not an American, and then we can talk on a higher level.
 

Siberian

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Hope you're right but I just don't see how the competing parties could keep it contained to regional conflicts between proxies. Russia has no proxy to sacrifice as I see it, and that means Russian troops will die at American hands. Or at Ukrainians hands and that can't be acceptable to Russia.

None of the three leading contenders will accept military defeat and America would almost certainly have to keep it limited to a proxy war. The stage may be being set now to enlist proxy forces in Kazakhstan. I don't see that as being possible in Ukraine.

Maybe America is stepping back from the Ukraine project, in favour of Kazakhstan being the much bitter prize. There's no bigger prize for all parties, but I suggest that Russia and China will cooperate and share the spoils if their side should win through other means than military.
Russia is not going to fight Ukraine, it is not going to spend resourses on American proxies, as the US hopes.

I tend to thibk we are heading to direct US-Russia military confrontation.
The US cannot afford a big scale war with Russia proir the war with China.
So, now Putin can easilly start wars with Ametica from which the US will be eager to exit as fas as possibl.

Next I expect sone US sokdiers/advisors to be killed in Ukraine or Syria.

Then probably a Carribean crisis-2.0.

Tbe US is in a trap, it has no good solution.
 

Donald H

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Had you heard something about Kazakhstan and its neighbours in Central Asia before? Or you became an expert of this region since January?
Not Kazakhstand specifically, but not a new expert in the sense of the ME and countries bordering on Russia or close to bordering.
But I've always been aware of Kazakhstan being the ultimate prize for America, but not envisioned by America to be considering possible.

Fwiw, I became interested and more informed in March 99 with the Kosovo war, which settled the point of America's intention to infringe on Russia's borders, instead of honouring an agreement.
 
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You are a chronic and irrepressible troll, Siberian! :)

As a Russian you might have something useful to add, and sometimes do, but you really prefer trolling, having gotten so used to it dealing with dumb Americans here and on other similar boards.

I agree this is not a very good place for a serious discussion. I usually reserve my best polemics for cynics and educated people like yourself, whatever their politics. You could say I “flirt” with them, but that’s really just silly. A more cynical view is that I’m entertaining only myself by revealing the silly errors of others.

I’d like to believe that naive ideologues like Donald H — depending on his age and personality — can actually still learn how to think. Others can take my comments any way they want.

I mostly just try to be fair and uncover the unvarnished (often ugly) truth … about all sides.
The University Is the Root of All Evil

Like a typical professor, you feel entitled to grade all the other posters but, from your pompous podium, you believe no one has the right to grade you.
 

rupol2000

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People very easily tolerate corription if their level of life keeps getting better, and Russia is a perfect example.
What???? Just a couple of months ago in the small town Yegoryevsk near Moscow (population about 70 thousand people), during a search of the police chief of this town, an amount of 5 million dollars in cash was found, not counting the rest. CASH. Who could pay that kind of money in a small town where the average salary doesn't reach $500? What the hell are you saying? How is this possible? Do you have any idea the scale of this corruption?


PS Do you fucking understand that five million is a significant amount even for the Italian mafia?
 

Siberian

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Siberian, I'm a Canadian and not one who supports US aggression or any other country's aggression.

Yeah, Putin doesn't want to invade Ukraine, but he will if it becomes necessary. If the US sends lethal weaponry to Ukraine and that costs Russian lives, he will have to invade. It can't be held back to a war of proxies. So it's bullshit that America can't do anything of course, they can do that.

Maybe you'll change your tune with me now that you know I'm a Canadian and not a pro-war one. Think in terms of the US not winning the final battle against Russia/Putin but instead that Russia will never be defeated. Russia may have to turn to nuclear war.

I didn't fail.
It may be complex, and I'm interested in hearing your explanations why. But I see Kazakhstan as the biggest prize ever and the near certainty that the US will open up that front as it's primary objective. It literally has to in order to deprive both Russia and China.

I think that Putin will see the best strategy being the same successful strategy being used by Russia in Syria. So I expect that Russia will maintain a presense in Kazakhstan and bolster it with air superiority. Otherwise the US moves in and turns it into another Iraq.

Now get your head around the fact that I'm not an American, and then we can talk on a higher level.
if you are a Canadian then just replace "your" with "their", the rest of content is still valid.

In Syria there is war on the ground which makes Russian military presence nessessary and reasonable.
In Kazakhstan - it will be counterproductive.

Russia will intervene if course if Ukraine attacks Donbass, but most probably not with invasion on land, it will be just complete destruction of Ukrainian army and infrastructure by missiles and aireal bombardment.
 
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Donald H

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Russia is not going to fight Ukraine, it is not going to spend resourses on American proxies, as the US hopes.

I tend to thibk we are heading to direct US-Russia military confrontation.
Now we're talking on the same wavelength! But initially I see big lethal arms shipments from America to Ukraine, and thus Russian military personnell losses. That will then force Putin's hand to take the Ukraine.
The US cannot afford a big scale war with Russia proir the war with China.
Oh, I have a hunch that it would be one war against both.
So, now Putin can easilly start wars with Ametica from which the US will be eager to exit as fas as possibl.

Next I expect sone US sokdiers/advisors to be killed in Ukraine or Syria.
Killing US soldiers in Ukraine must also be avoided at all costs. It must always be proxy fighting proxy. Or at least be painted by the media as such.
Then probably a Carribean crisis-2.0.

Tbe US is in a trap, it has no good solution.

I've been saying for months around here that China is setting up in Cuba and it makes sense that Russia will too, as well as in C.America and especially Venezuela.

I may not agree with all your proposals because i'm not pro for either side. Just trying to talk from an antiwar POV and be proactive.
 
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Several factors drove protestors into the streets in Kazakhstan:

Kazakhs are fed-up with corruption. Fed-up with the fact that elites enjoy the wealth of the country while the average person is left to deal with rising fuel and food prices and face limited opportunities.

Keep in mind that present day Kazakh president Tokayev was chosen by Nursultan Nazarbayev because he was a trusted ally.


Initially Kazakhs were happy that Nursultan Nazarbayev agreed to step down as president and thought that the country might improve once he was gone. But Nursultan Nazarbayev didn't leave, he took the role as head of Kazakhstan's Security Council (a position arguably more powerful than president).


He and his family are reported to have stolen billions from the country.

"Some of the protesters’ complaints are fully justified. The Kazakh legislature is largely a fig leaf for what is in essence a dictatorship. Corruption is endemic. The wealth of former president Nursultan Nazarbayev’s family, the ex-Soviet stooge who ruled Kazakhstan for twenty-nine years until 2021, is likely to be in the tens of billions."


.
The American Eagle Flies High Over Ground-Grubbing Egalitarianism

We heard the same ignorant Muzziphile nonsense about the Arab Spring in Syria. Muslims are not like us at all, so what Americans would resent about the Kazak government is irrelevant and should not be a starting point in any discussion. If you compare us with these Mongoloid savages, you're comparing apples and orangutans.
 
OP
Tom Paine 1949

Tom Paine 1949

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I am no expert on the U.S. role in Kazakhstan and Central Asia, but it seems to me the U.S. is more likely to be pushed out than to do any pushing out of Russia and China. Here is a 2014 article which predicts this — way before the U.S. ended its military presence in Afghanistan:


Of course the U.S. would love to make trouble for Russia and block China’s overland bridge to Iran and Europe, but doing anything extreme might threaten its investments there. These might be expendable, but the truth is U.S. military power and the West’s direct ability to threaten Kazakhstan is negligible:

“The U.S. ultimately has little leverage in Central Asia. As illustrated by last year’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, long preceded by base closures in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, the U.S. simply was never going to remain engaged in Central Asia. Russia will by dint of sheer geography.”

The big U.S. economic investments in Kazakhstan are vulnerable. The West as a whole provides safe refuge for the leaders of the regime to hide money in fancy real estate and banks and to educate its children … but from what I can see American NGOs so far have gotten nowhere in the face of dictatorial repression. There just doesn’t seem much realistic chance that the U.S. will ever “own Kazakhstan.”

I could be wrong about all this, but I don’t think so. It seems to me that secular nationalist factions of the Kazakhstan leadership are
at most playing the American card, not the other way around.
 
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rupol2000

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Russia will intervene if course if Ukraine attacks Donbass,
In Russia, no one officially recognized the Donbass as non-Ukraine, so your words "if Ukraine attacks Donbass" are just clownery, even from the point of view of Moscow's officialdom.
 

Siberian

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What???? Just a couple of months ago in the small town Yegoryevsk near Moscow (population about 70 thousand people), during a search of the police chief of this town, an amount of 5 million dollars in cash was found, not counting the rest. CASH. Who could pay that kind of money in a small town where the average salary doesn't reach $500? What the hell are you saying? How is this possible? Do you have any idea the scale of this corruption?

You don't get it.
People tolerate corruption if their level of live improves.
While specifically in Russia almost every week some quite big representative of beaurocracy is being publicly arested and punished.
For example, today I read about arrest of the Head of radioengeneering service of Russian army, he took a bribe of $67 000.

I. e. Putin takes pains to denonstrate that fight against corruption is real. And it is real at least in small and medium level.
On higher lever it is not corruprion, it is lobbysm, which is absolutely legal in the USA, by the way.. :lol:

I don't know if such arrests take place in Ukraine but corruption is not the primary concern in Russia.
 

Donald H

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if you ate a Canadian then just replace "your" with "their", the rest of content is still valid.
Just try to appreciate Canada's position. Trudeau isn't stupid. He's probably more aware of reality than any other Canadian P.M., other than maybe Chretien who kept us out of Iraq.
In Syria there is ear on the ground which makes Russian military presence nessessary and reasonable.
In Kazakhstan - it will be counterproductive.
YOu might be saying that because you have to say that right now. The US/Nato says that Russia won't be leaving. So Russia will only leave in the same way it leaves it's victim countries. Not.
Russia will intervene if course if Ukraine attacks Donbass, but most probably not with invasion on land, it will be just complete destruction of Ukrainian army and infrastructure by missiles and aireal bombardment.

Yes, the Ukraine is and will be the US proxy force, but it may have very advanced and lethal US weaponry that will kill Russians. Then Putin will have to move forward.
 

Siberian

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I am no expert on the U.S. role in Kazakhstan and Central Asia, but it seems to me the U.S. is more likely to be pushed out than to do any pushing out of Russia and China. Here is a 2014 article which predicts this — even before the U.S. ended its military presence in Afghanistan:


Of course the U.S. would love to make trouble for Russia and block China’s overland bridge to Iran and Europe, but doing anything extreme might threaten its investments there. These might be expendable, but the truth is U.S. military power and the West’s direct ability to threaten Kazakhstan is negligible:

“The U.S. ultimately has little leverage in Central Asia. As illustrated by last year’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, long preceded by base closures in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, the U.S. simply was never going to remain engaged in Central Asia. Russia will by dint of sheer geography.”

The big U.S. economic investments in Kazakhstan are vulnerable. The West as a whole provides safe refuge for the leaders of the regime to hide money in fancy real estate and banks and to educate its children … but from what I can see American NGOs so far have gotten nowhere in the face of dictatorial repression. There just doesn’t seem much realistic chance that the U.S. will ever “own Kazakhstan.”

I could be wrong about all this, but I don’t think so. It seems to me most secular nationalist factions of the Kazakhstan leadership are
at most playing the American card, not the other way around.
Don't underestimate American financed NGOs, they are mostly welcomed and even groomed by local regimes to counterbalance Russian gravity.
 

rupol2000

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The Kremlin has never officially announced interference in the internal affairs of Ukraine in the east, has never recognized any official military presence there, has never questioned the status of Donbass as an integral part of Ukraine.
 

Siberian

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In Russia, no one officially recognized the Donbass as non-Ukraine, so your words "if Ukraine attacks Donbass" are just clownery, even from the point of view of Moscow's officialdom.
officially? :lol:

Russia is granting Russian citizenship to locals, more than 500 000 already got it.
You can forget about Donbass as a part of Ukraine with 200% probability.. :)
 

Siberian

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Just try to appreciate Canada's position. Trudeau isn't stupid. He's probably more aware of reality than any other Canadian P.M., other than maybe Chretien who kept us out of Iraq.

YOu might be saying that because you have to say that right now. The US/Nato says that Russia won't be leaving. So Russia will only leave in the same way it leaves it's victim countries. Not.


Yes, the Ukraine is and will be the US proxy force, but it may have very advanced and lethal US weaponry that will kill Russians. Then Putin will have to move forward.
I may be saying because I have to say?
What does it mean? :).

Russian victim countries? which ones? besides, lol, look who is talking....

Russian troops are leaving Kazakhstan, it is a simple fact which cannot be denied or interpreted in any other way..
 

rupol2000

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Even after the referendum on joining Russia was held in the Donbass, the Kremlin did not react to this in any way.
There is a version that the Kremlin unofficially organized the Donbass rebel troops and supplied them. The leader of the Donbass resistance, Igor Strelkov, stated the exact opposite. After he left the Donbass, he became an oppositionist to the Kremlin and did not support Moscow.

Will we continue to tell fairy tales or is it enough?
 

Donald H

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I am no expert on the U.S. role in Kazakhstan and Central Asia, but it seems to me the U.S. is more likely to be pushed out than to do any pushing out of Russia and China. Here is a 2014 article which predicts this — way before the U.S. ended its military presence in Afghanistan:
The US is already promoting violent protests against government. I very much doubt this will turn out to be the first one where America gives up and pulls out it's CIA assets.
Mostly I feel that way because it's too big a prize to allow China and Russia to keep it. Much, much too big!
Of course the U.S. would love to make trouble for Russia and block China’s overland bridge to Iran and Europe,..................
Yeah that.
 

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