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Weather Patterns - A Discussion

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Billy_Bob

Billy_Bob

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That's where Billy denies that conservation of energy holds, and thus reveals himself as a laughable crank.

According to Billy's kook physics, sunlight can't warm a rock, being that sunlight can barely penetrate into a rock. Since sunlight clearly does warm a rock, that demonstrates how Billy is an imbecile.
LOL.... You have to receive the energy before you can conserve it... You people are running in circles...
 

ReinyDays

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Moving on from the troll....

Back to topic...

Why can we not model weather accurately?

GCM's (Global Climate Model) are complex computations of multiple pressure gradients. These models are actually models within a larger model. Each model is 100kl x 100kl x 10kl deep. These are called grid squares and the distances change with latitude.

View attachment 660304

source

These grid squares are stacked as we enter different sections of the atmosphere.

The problem is thunderstorms and other micro circulations, which occur in 1-3 kl regions. You can have changes within each grid square, that change the calculations of the whole, which you cannot generate. We simply do not have the temporal or spatial resolution to model even one square correctly.

At best, you might get 3-5 days close but long term, the model will fail with 100% certainty. Most meteorologists will not trust any model beyond 24 hours. They are simply that inaccurate.

Can you narrow down your source for this a little ... the link takes me to an analysis of TV reception in Iran during bad weather ... you should be able to do better ...

At best, you might get 3-5 days close but long term, the model will fail with 100% certainty. Most meteorologists will not trust any model beyond 24 hours. They are simply that inaccurate.

I agree except you over state your case I think ... just using climatology will give correct results ... some times, and in some places, this method is fairly accurate ... twenty years ago this is how the NWS determined rain chances, maybe still to this day ... it's not that these computer models are accurate past 72 hours, but there's only so many forecasts to be stated ... just pick one at random and you'll get some positive hits ...

Remember ... if you're in a 5 mph wind field ... and you want to know what the weather will be in 12 hours ... simply call 60 miles upstream and ask what weather they're having right now ... there's your 12 hour forecast with 99% accuracy ... call 120 miles upstream for your 24 hour forecast with 98% accuracy ... after this accuracy crashes and we'll have to consider the area's storms and polar jets and sunspots and all that other funny stuff we see on the TV's weather report ...
 

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LOL.... You have to receive the energy before you can conserve it... You people are running in circles...
And again, Billy tells us sunlight can't warm a rock.

Longwave IR penetrates into the ocean. Hence, it is absorbed by the ocean. What about this confoozes you so much?
 

ding

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The physics.
Does light produce heat or is it the absorption of light that produces heat? Light is energy. Heat is energy. When a physical body absorbs light, it converts the energy of the absorbed photons into kinetic energy (vibrations) of its own atoms. We call that mechanical energy "heat".

Does this sound right to you?
 
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Does light produce heat or is it the absorption of light that produces heat? Light is energy. Heat is energy. When a physical body absorbs light, it converts the energy of the absorbed photons into kinetic energy (vibrations) of its own atoms. We call that mechanical energy "heat".

Does this sound right to you?
They don't get basic physics.. That's the problem, they simply cannot grasp the root of problem. The region of energy (downwelling solar radiation) that warms our oceans to depth is declining. That energy loss is what is driving the lack of ENSO recharge and why our oceans are cooling.
 
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Billy_Bob

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And it is only July 20th. The size of the polar jet is that of wintertime and the speed has increased. The large High pressure above the plains is breaking up as the polar jet descends. The equatorial jet is being pushed down. A month and a half early...

1658334850351.png


The width of the polar jet is massive, and the lows are gaining strength already.
 

ding

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And it is only July 20th. The size of the polar jet is that of wintertime and the speed has increased. The large High pressure above the plains is breaking up as the polar jet descends. The equatorial jet is being pushed down. A month and a half early...

View attachment 672376

The width of the polar jet is massive, and the lows are gaining strength already.
It's only a matter of time before a prolonged cooling trend proves everything they believe to be false.
 

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Billy_Bob

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We had almost three weeks where the nighttime temperatures were at the 30-year average. This week we are back to 12-15 deg below average and the air flow at 25,000 feet has returned to late October temps. The polar jet has taken back over as the driver of temperature in the mid latitudes.

The upper-level winds have already shifted southward. Things are beginning to change rapidly in the Northern Hemisphere. I hope JC and Skooks are ready...
 

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