We don’t need to go into an economic depression

[Slade3200]

Hyper inflation only happens when there are more attractive currencies to own and the value of one decreases.

There can be no other response to that spectacular display of extreme ignorance, than this…

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Sounds to me like you can’t explain it. I’m not saying we won’t face inflation... but it would be a very different inflation than the examples you pointed to

If you print tens of trillions, the dollar will be worthless. Why is that so difficult to understand? Why?

Ok let’s look at that... Americans hold about 100 Trillion in wealth. So let’s say we inject 10 Trillion to get us through this period... that would in theory dilute the dollar by 10% causing inflation. So we would have to deal with that vs. 10s of millions out of work and thousands of businesses shutting down. You seem very quick to dismiss a detailed discussion about the stimulus. Why is that?

For one, that money will never be paid back, two, it will lead to a one world currency which will devastate the entire globe. It really is that simple.

Ok, it will never be paid back. I’ll stimulate that... so how how does it lead to one world currency and and how does it devastate the entire globe. Connect the dots

History of the Reserve Currency has always ended badly................It was the pound...........it is the dollar now...........and will be electronic currency next.

It's not the FEDERAL DEBT that is the main problem..........it is the Federal Reserve handing it out like cocaine to an addict at the back door........It is using Fractional Banking to make bets and manipulate the markets............into GIANT BALLOONS...............

Then some guy goes.......be happy man .....look at the value of your house.......Wow dude......then it crashes and your house is under water...........They laugh..............do it again.

That doesn’t address the current situation and using a massive stimulus to keep the economy afloat. Yeah everybody gets a few checks while they hunker down. Currencies get devalued a bit. Ok now what?

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

I like your asking these questions, Slade.

However, I think the reality of separate governments in the world and parties in the U.S., the lining up for bailouts by powerful special interest lobbyists and friends of administration appointees and working out bailouts behind closed doors from the many Federal Reserve "special vehicle" funds that distribute money/credit and buy (overvalued) securities ... all make your plan rather utopian.

But in its own inevitably corrupt way what you suggest is what the Fed and Congess are trying to do, as are other governments with sufficient resources. Third World countries will mostly default on their dollar debts. One can already see Trump talking tariffs to protect our high production cost domestic oil industry (which backed by the military industrial people was behind much mischief in the world). The world is not going to come closer together in this situation -- it can't even figure out a way to share masks.

When debt and finance is structured in such complicated ways and financial instruments can change value at the speed of light, even perfectly wise and impartial authorities would have their hands full unraveling developing problems. Some terribly run, already looted corporations should go bankrupt (bankruptcy laws allow for real assets to be protected).

The idea of a universal "jubilee" sounds good and can be introduced for certain groups, should be introduced for certain groups of people, but for the life of me I can't see how it can happen for all economic institutions over any length of time and then expect capitalism to continue. Frankly, I don't know nearly enough to say more.

 

[Slade3200]

I like your asking these questions, Slade.

However, I think the reality of separate governments in the world and parties in the U.S., the lining up for bailouts by powerful special interest lobbyists and friends of administration appointees and working out bailouts behind closed doors from the many Federal Reserve "special vehicle" funds that distribute money/credit and buy (overvalued) securities ... all make your plan rather utopian.

But in its own inevitably corrupt way what you suggest is what the Fed and Congess are trying to do, as are other governments with sufficient resources. Third World countries will mostly default on their dollar debts. One can already see Trump talking tariffs to protect our high production cost domestic oil industry (which backed by the military industrial people was behind much mischief in the world). The world is not going to come closer together in this situation -- it can't even figure out a way to share masks.

When debt and finance is structured in such complicated ways and financial instruments can change value at the speed of light, even perfectly wise and impartial authorities would have their hands full unraveling developing problems. Some terribly run, already looted corporations should go bankrupt (bankruptcy laws allow for real assets to be protected).

The idea of a universal "jubilee" sounds good and can be introduced for certain groups, should be introduced for certain groups of people, but for the life of me I can't see how it can happen for all economic institutions over any length of time and then expect capitalism to continue. Frankly, I don't know nearly enough to say more.

You outline many problem areas which can arise from ruling class corruption and your observations are also very relevant as you are correct that I am proposing a idealistic solution and not a practical one. That’s not to say that we can’t discuss the principles of the proposal and explore safeguards and practical roll outs. I agree that the governments stimulus Plan that they are rolling out is in line with my suggestions. It should be eye opening to conservatives to see a Republican senate propose and pass these measures... it should make us rethink how we view currency and how we understand the world economy. What the real effects of the national debt are and what the value of a strong working class is. The more I think about it the more I see the benefits to saving jobs at all costs. The expense of a depression will be trillions... multiples higher than the cost of a bail out. The question is... how do we best execute.

Yang and Scaramucci had a great talk about a month ago before the stimulus was passed and they were talking $3k a person and 4T total stimulus with strict conditions for corporations to avoid layoffs and enriching shareholders.... I liked their thinking. We need to go bigger

 

[JustAnotherNut]

And why not just shut everything down for 2 months, everything put on hold. No stimulus paid to anyone. Then open it all back up, people go back to their jobs and pay a little each month to catch up for the 2 months down.

Extreme strategy but sometimes desperate times call for desperate measures. I doubt anyone would agree to it either.

Millions of people can’t afford to Just hit pause for two months. Without the stimulus people can’t afford rent bills and food.... employees get laid off, Businesses shut down, and all kinds of bad things happen. We are already seeing it happen now. The money needs to get out STAT to stop the bleeding. Problem is not enough is being sent out.

If everything...and I do mean EVERYTHING shut down......that would include those bills...……..what's there to afford??? During such a shut down, any bills incurred or not paid during the shut down would be added to your normal billing cycle but on a payment plan like adding an additional amount to the normal payment, paid back when shut down is over & everything back up & running. Limiting the time to pay it back to within a year or 2 at most.

Everything can’t shut down. Emergency services, medical, agriculture, grocery stores, deliveries, law enforcement, utilities etc all need to be maintained.

I think you drastically underestimate many people’s ability to afford to not make money for a couple of months while taking on the debt for those expenses. What we are seeing happen right now with job loss is proof that your plan would not work.
Why are you so against the government stimulus? It’s all Monopoly money anyways

IF a 2 month shut down were planned for in advance and everyone complied with it, most of those services wouldn't be needed. Other than for healthcare or to keep utilities running and also diary & livestock operations...…..yeah there are some points that couldn't be shut down, and no it's not a perfect plan either.

But for peoples ability to afford it...….as I said any loans, or lines of credit would be extended for that amount of time, and the only increase of payments would be for utilities. The bills for your power, water, sewer, etc would be broke down to include an additional amount each month over a 1 or 2 year period so it wouldn't be too much of a burden.

As I said it wouldn't be a popular option because it's extreme...........but we wouldn't be saddled with trillions of additional debt either AND there wouldn't be the human losses we are currently and will be experiencing from the pandemic. The virus would be no more. Plus the added jobs of those manufacturers of products that will be made in the US, instead of China......and don't forget added construction & other jobs to create the factories to house those productions. Many current low wage earners would have a chance for better paying jobs, that would pay back anything held during the shutdown.

I think you are close but I still don’t understand why you think it better for the millions of people Who love paycheck to paycheck to be saddled with the debt vs the government releasing more currency. Explain to me how the trillions of debt that our country undertakes would be crippling? Or why the currency couldn’t be created and released without debt if coordinated correctly with the rest of the world

And how has the government pumping out more cash not effected our national debt, raised taxes, etc ? Those millions of people living paycheck to paycheck wouldn't be 'saddled with more debt', if their current debts were put on hold along with their incomes..


As for your idea that the government should pay for everything with 3 or 5 or 10 stimulus plans and pumping out money left & right to keep the economy going as it always has...….is like using a credit card with no limit. Ka-Ching. What is the value of that credit card if you don't have to pay any of it back? Or be limited to how much you can spend based on your ability to make the payments???


If no stimulus was paid to anyone, and 99% of the country was shut down/put on hold, (all debts & payments as well) until the virus was contained...….there might still be some light at the end of the national debt tunnel.

And if we don't get ahead of this virus, there's too much of a chance of it keep recirculating and/or coming back around later...…...and we'll all be right back to where we are right now...…...everyone under stay at home orders, supply shortages, business's shut down, people laid off because of it, no jobs, no income..........and everyone screaming for another round of bailouts. How many times do we have to keep going round that same circle????

You seem very scared of the national debt but haven't articulated how injecting money into the economy actually ends up hurting us. We experience a few more % inflation vs dealing with a massive recession and job loss? I’ll take the inflation over the depression.... You underestimate the expense of a multi month shut down. It’s absurd to think it’s possible to do without stimulus funds. We’ve already seen millions of jobs lost just showing that thats what happens according to your plan. Don’t you think if there was a way to do manage this without stimulus then the conservatives that control the senate would have proposed a bill to handle things that way?!

Scared? No...….and what does it really matter. The country won't do a complete & total shut down, so we'll never see if that idea would work in the short or long term. But we will get to see what happens with multiple stimulus payments being handed out and getting people back to work before the virus is fully contained. It's already in the works. I just hope you're right that a little inflation is all we have to deal with because of it.

 

[Slade3200]

And why not just shut everything down for 2 months, everything put on hold. No stimulus paid to anyone. Then open it all back up, people go back to their jobs and pay a little each month to catch up for the 2 months down.

Extreme strategy but sometimes desperate times call for desperate measures. I doubt anyone would agree to it either.

Millions of people can’t afford to Just hit pause for two months. Without the stimulus people can’t afford rent bills and food.... employees get laid off, Businesses shut down, and all kinds of bad things happen. We are already seeing it happen now. The money needs to get out STAT to stop the bleeding. Problem is not enough is being sent out.

If everything...and I do mean EVERYTHING shut down......that would include those bills...……..what's there to afford??? During such a shut down, any bills incurred or not paid during the shut down would be added to your normal billing cycle but on a payment plan like adding an additional amount to the normal payment, paid back when shut down is over & everything back up & running. Limiting the time to pay it back to within a year or 2 at most.

Everything can’t shut down. Emergency services, medical, agriculture, grocery stores, deliveries, law enforcement, utilities etc all need to be maintained.

I think you drastically underestimate many people’s ability to afford to not make money for a couple of months while taking on the debt for those expenses. What we are seeing happen right now with job loss is proof that your plan would not work.
Why are you so against the government stimulus? It’s all Monopoly money anyways

IF a 2 month shut down were planned for in advance and everyone complied with it, most of those services wouldn't be needed. Other than for healthcare or to keep utilities running and also diary & livestock operations...…..yeah there are some points that couldn't be shut down, and no it's not a perfect plan either.

But for peoples ability to afford it...….as I said any loans, or lines of credit would be extended for that amount of time, and the only increase of payments would be for utilities. The bills for your power, water, sewer, etc would be broke down to include an additional amount each month over a 1 or 2 year period so it wouldn't be too much of a burden.

As I said it wouldn't be a popular option because it's extreme...........but we wouldn't be saddled with trillions of additional debt either AND there wouldn't be the human losses we are currently and will be experiencing from the pandemic. The virus would be no more. Plus the added jobs of those manufacturers of products that will be made in the US, instead of China......and don't forget added construction & other jobs to create the factories to house those productions. Many current low wage earners would have a chance for better paying jobs, that would pay back anything held during the shutdown.

I think you are close but I still don’t understand why you think it better for the millions of people Who love paycheck to paycheck to be saddled with the debt vs the government releasing more currency. Explain to me how the trillions of debt that our country undertakes would be crippling? Or why the currency couldn’t be created and released without debt if coordinated correctly with the rest of the world

And how has the government pumping out more cash not effected our national debt, raised taxes, etc ? Those millions of people living paycheck to paycheck wouldn't be 'saddled with more debt', if their current debts were put on hold along with their incomes..


As for your idea that the government should pay for everything with 3 or 5 or 10 stimulus plans and pumping out money left & right to keep the economy going as it always has...….is like using a credit card with no limit. Ka-Ching. What is the value of that credit card if you don't have to pay any of it back? Or be limited to how much you can spend based on your ability to make the payments???


If no stimulus was paid to anyone, and 99% of the country was shut down/put on hold, (all debts & payments as well) until the virus was contained...….there might still be some light at the end of the national debt tunnel.

And if we don't get ahead of this virus, there's too much of a chance of it keep recirculating and/or coming back around later...…...and we'll all be right back to where we are right now...…...everyone under stay at home orders, supply shortages, business's shut down, people laid off because of it, no jobs, no income..........and everyone screaming for another round of bailouts. How many times do we have to keep going round that same circle????

You seem very scared of the national debt but haven't articulated how injecting money into the economy actually ends up hurting us. We experience a few more % inflation vs dealing with a massive recession and job loss? I’ll take the inflation over the depression.... You underestimate the expense of a multi month shut down. It’s absurd to think it’s possible to do without stimulus funds. We’ve already seen millions of jobs lost just showing that thats what happens according to your plan. Don’t you think if there was a way to do manage this without stimulus then the conservatives that control the senate would have proposed a bill to handle things that way?!

Scared? No...….and what does it really matter. The country won't do a complete & total shut down, so we'll never see if that idea would work in the short or long term. But we will get to see what happens with multiple stimulus payments being handed out and getting people back to work before the virus is fully contained. It's already in the works. I just hope you're right that a little inflation is all we have to deal with because of it.

We we are seeing millions out of work right now and we know that would only skyrocket in the weeks to come. The only thing holding it off would be a stimulus. You can’t just cut off all commerce. Things happen in a country of 300 million and people are going to need goods and services during that time.

the current stimulus is OK but it needs to be more if we are going to be shut down for two months. Plus what’s happening now is not exactly what I proposed in my OP. I’m looking for reasons why my proposition would fail.

 

[Bob Blaylock]

You outline many problem areas which can arise from ruling class corruption and your observations are also very relevant as you are correct that I am proposing a idealistic solution and not a practical one.

We need a practical solution, and not an idealistic one.

And no solution is practical that doesn't get as many people back to work as soon as possible.

 

[Bob Blaylock]

Ok let’s look at that... Americans hold about 100 Trillion in wealth. So let’s say we inject 10 Trillion to get us through this period... that would in theory dilute the dollar by 10% causing inflation. So we would have to deal with that vs. 10s of millions out of work and thousands of businesses shutting down. You seem very quick to dismiss a detailed discussion about the stimulus. Why is that?

What you do not get is this:

Increasing the amount of currency does not increase the amount of available wealth. It does not make the economy, as a whole, any richer. All it does is devalue the currency.

The only real “stimulus” can only be that which actually gets people working, and producing genuine wealth. The only sustainable economy is one where as many people as possible are carrying their own weight, and enough extra to support a very small minority who cannot. A small minority working, cannot support a majority who are not. It simply is not possible.

 

[Slade3200]

Here’s a good analysis about how the stimulus will affect inflation For anybody interesting in digging beneath the surface

Money Printer Go Brrr ... And No Inflation?

Although a big fiscal package is in the pipeline (admittedly the Greatest Deliberative Body in the World is playing its usual log-rolling games), smashed supply, and rampant "money printing" (ha!), breakeven inflation in the United States is cratering (figure above). This is exactly what should...

www.bondeconomics.com