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War Between the Great Powers Is Impossible!

Doug1943

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There is a lot of fear at the moment that we could see the US and Russia get into a war, over Ukriane, which is in the American backyard and which Russia has invaded.

Or we could get into a war over Taiwan, which again, is in the American backyard and which China is threatening with invasion.

These countries, being so close, like Cuba was, are very important to us. So some people worry that we could get into a war over them.

But a wonderful book, entitled The Great Illusion, has been written, proving that war between the big powers is no longer going to happen, because it would be irrational ... or if it did happen, it would be short.

Why? Simple: it's economically irrational. Both sides would go bankrupt, plus modern technology would make war far more deadly than in the past. No rational economic goal would be achieved, even by the victorious side.

So we can all breathe easily! Only coo-coo's would worry about a big war or take steps to prepare for the consequences.

Everyone should read this wonderful book. Here's the Wikipedia summary of it:

[ The Great Illusion - Wikipedia ]
 

Moonglow

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Russia is not a great power.
 

Moonglow

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Russia can't beat Ukraine, the US would mop them both up in no time.
 

luiza

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Unfortunately , moony, experts believe exactly the opposite .

But I feel sure you can go word blind as usual to avoid that uncomfortable fact
 

Moonglow

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Unfortunately , moony, experts believe exactly the opposite .

But I feel sure you can go word blind as usual to avoid that uncomfortable fact
Yeah, then why is Russia backtracking in Ukraine?
 
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Doug1943

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Russia is not a great power.
Economically, no, although it had the potential to be one. But militarily, they are, in the nuclear field. Put it this way: you wouldn't want to get into a nuclear war with Russia. Fortunately, The Great Illusion shows why real wars between the (militarily) great powers is now impossible.
 

Esdraelon

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The Great Illusion shows why real wars between the (militarily) great powers is now impossible.
I recall reading basically the same rationale being advanced prior to WWI. Wars are about human egos and greed. If Russia, China, or say, Iran began staging troops and advanced missiles on our border with Mexico, does anyone really believe we wouldn't fight?
 

johngaltshrugged

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Neither Ukraine or Taiwan are in our "backyard" but one is in Russia's backyard & the other is in Chinas.
We have to cross entire oceans to reach either country.

Since when does rational thought enter the thinking when humans go to war?
If the puppet masters want war for money, power, depopulation & to reduce armed forces, they will instigate it regardless of the economic consequences since it brings us closer to the crash they want for the reset.
 
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Doug1943

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Unfortunately , moony, experts believe exactly the opposite .

But I feel sure you can go word blind as usual to avoid that uncomfortable fact
The horrible, basic, bedrock fact is that for Putin, this war is existential, and it's also seen that way by the great majority of the Russian people.

Putin will do whatever it takes to win. And if he's replaced in a palace coup, it will not be by a nice liberal. It will be by someone even more determined to win.

I think this invasion was a huge mistake, but it's clear that it was the US, for the last 30 years, which been poking the Bear, hoping that he will collapse. Now they're getting what anyone could have told them would have happened.

This is the best piece I've seen on what the background to what's happening is. Everyone should read it:

The First US Onslaught to “Weaken” Post-Cold War Russia.
 
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Doug1943

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I recall reading basically the same rationale being advanced prior to WWI. Wars are about human egos and greed. If Russia, China, or say, Iran began staging troops and advanced missiles on our border with Mexico, does anyone really believe we wouldn't fight?
Bingo! Click on the Wiki link!
 

Grumblenuts

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Doug1943

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Very interesting! I've downloaded the transcript of that interview and will read it.

I mainly keep up with opinion on the Right, being one myself. (Although I try to keep up with the most prominent Left publications, which is why I've put that link from Counterpunch.) I've been surprised, although I shouldn't have been, by the anemic reponse, or so it seems to me, from the Left to what's been going on.

I think a lot of people on the Left -- serious people, not the adolescent kiddy posters we seem to have a lot of here -- don't realize the profound shift that has occured among the base of the Republican Party ... very very imperfectly reflected by Donald Trump.

This shift has been on several fundamental issues, and one of them is on war and foreign policy. Our neo-con hawks have all become Democrats. The Republican tops are still in line with their traditional Cold War positions, but not the rank and file -- or not a lot of them.

If we had a Third Party candidate, someone who had been neither Left nor Right in the past, who ran on a platform of (1) defending the border, BUT finding a solution for the desperate immigrants trying to escape the drug gangs (easier said than done, I know), (2) doing something about the growing disparity of wealth in America (again, not an easy problem to solve), (3) radically modifying our foreign policy, adjusting to a multi-polar world, even if we don't like the way the other poles run their societies, (4) reform of the education system, (5) .... I think I'll stop here.

Anyway, think such a candidate would win in a landslide ... or be found to have mysteriously committed suicide.
 

night_son

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There is a lot of fear at the moment that we could see the US and Russia get into a war, over Ukriane, which is in the American backyard and which Russia has invaded.

Or we could get into a war over Taiwan, which again, is in the American backyard and which China is threatening with invasion.

These countries, being so close, like Cuba was, are very important to us. So some people worry that we could get into a war over them.

But a wonderful book, entitled The Great Illusion, has been written, proving that war between the big powers is no longer going to happen, because it would be irrational ... or if it did happen, it would be short.

Why? Simple: it's economically irrational. Both sides would go bankrupt, plus modern technology would make war far more deadly than in the past. No rational economic goal would be achieved, even by the victorious side.

So we can all breathe easily! Only coo-coo's would worry about a big war or take steps to prepare for the consequences.

Everyone should read this wonderful book. Here's the Wikipedia summary of it:

[ The Great Illusion - Wikipedia ]

The book is a bit outdated, wouldn't you say, considering many great powers have gone to war since 1910. World Wars one and two ring a bell? An even greater illusion is the modern fairy tale people believe . . . the one in which sovereign nations still exist. IF the global masters who control ALL "sovereign" nations decide the US and Russia or the US and China should go to war, then that is what will happen. Until then, drink up as much alcohol as you can stand . . . until you can't (stand). It's a tipsy world out there. Why face it sober?
 
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Doug1943

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The book is a bit outdated, wouldn't you say, considering many great powers have gone to war since 1910. World Wars one and two ring a bell? An even greater illusion is the modern fairy tale people believe . . . the one in which sovereign nations still exist. IF the global masters who control ALL "sovereign" nations decide the US and Russia or the US and China should go to war, then that is what will happen. Until then, drink up as much alcohol as you can stand . . . until you can't (stand). It's a tipsy world out there. Why face it sober?
Yes, the fact that this book, by a pretty smart guy, was written a few years before WWI, is the whole point. Our rulers are not always rational. No one is.

A relatively new trend in economics is 'behavioral economics'.
[ Behavioral economics - Wikipedia ]

Classical economics assumes we are rational actors: if you can buy a car for $25000 at shop X, and buy the same car for $24000 at shop Y, you'll buy it at shop Y. And as a broad generalization about human behavior -- we're self-interested -- it's obviously correct.

But ... we are also subject to things which make us deviate from rational behavior.

Example: suppose a rich person offers to give you and me $1000, to be divided between us, in whatever proportion I choose, but having made that choice, you get to decide whether we get the money at all.

You probably think I'll propose an even split, $500 for each of us, but ... I'm a greedy old conservative who thinks everyone is just motivated, rationally, for money ... so I propose that I'll get $990, and you'll get $10. You can accept the deal, or reject it, in which case we both get nothing.

Now, if you're purely motivated by money, you'll take the $10. It's that, or nothing.

But I'll bet you would reject the deal, just to punish me for being a greedy bastard. You would get more than $10 of pleasure seeing the expression on my face, when I realized I could have got $500, but, being a greedy conservative, I've just got myself ... nothing.

So also for the men who run our countries. In the runup to WWII, FDR goaded Hitler personally, and did what he could to help the democracies militarily, giving Britain 50 of our old destroyers, having the Navy report on German submarines to them when they were spotted.

We finally succeeded in goading the Japanese to attack, thus changing America's isolationism overnight into a white hot desire for revenge.

But that was Japan, not Germany. Germany had a treaty with Japan, but was not obligated to go to war in those circumstances, when Japan attacked first. And it would have been insane for Hitler to want to go to war with the US, for many reasons.

But two days after Pearl Harbor, he declared war on us. Irrational.

Russia is reacting just as we would, if the government of Mexico signed a treat with China, to get their army trained by the Chinese PLA, get their weapons from them, and eventually enter into a military pact with them, which would see Chinese troops (and missiles) stationed on our border.

Rationally, we might just accept it. Lots of countries have had hostile forces on their border. But I'll bet we wouldn't.
 

José

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Originally posted by Doug1943
Rationally, we might just accept it. Lots of countries have had hostile forces on their border. But I'll bet we wouldn't.

The only countries that don't react to the military encirclement of their borders by foreign military alliances are exactly those too weak to do anything about it.

If NATO strikes a deal with South Africa, Botswana, Mozambique, etc... to surround the borders of Zimbabwe, the poor african country won't be able to do anything but whine.
 

José

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Originally posted by Doug1943
Rationally, we might just accept it. Lots of countries have had hostile forces on their border. But I'll bet we wouldn't.

No need to risk your hard-earned money, Doug.

The whole world has already seen how tolerant America is when neighboring countries ally themselves with her enemies.

Cuba, Grenada, the proxy wars in Central America, etc...
 

Nobody911

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There is a lot of fear at the moment that we could see the US and Russia get into a war, over Ukriane, which is in the American backyard and which Russia has invaded.

Or we could get into a war over Taiwan, which again, is in the American backyard and which China is threatening with invasion.

These countries, being so close, like Cuba was, are very important to us. So some people worry that we could get into a war over them.

But a wonderful book, entitled The Great Illusion, has been written, proving that war between the big powers is no longer going to happen, because it would be irrational ... or if it did happen, it would be short.

Why? Simple: it's economically irrational. Both sides would go bankrupt, plus modern technology would make war far more deadly than in the past. No rational economic goal would be achieved, even by the victorious side.

So we can all breathe easily! Only coo-coo's would worry about a big war or take steps to prepare for the consequences.

Everyone should read this wonderful book. Here's the Wikipedia summary of it:

[ The Great Illusion - Wikipedia ]
My views : Endless war = Uncle Sam's foreign policy

Now peace is just like a trip to the sun. That book may be outdated...Yeah, no longer valid. The situation in Ukraine is actually getting worse. Anything is possible right now. Just enjoy yourself before the ultimate nightmare begins! 🎤🎹🎸🎯🎲 😊

Facts:
Moscow's adversaries have long aimed to destroy everything Russian, the FM has said

The current situation in Ukraine demonstrates that the conflict between Russia and the West can no longer be defined as a “hybrid war” but is instead approaching becoming a real one, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Monday.

Source:
Russia and West on verge of ‘real war’ – Lavrov — RT Russia & Former Soviet Union – Russia and West on verge of ‘real war’ – Lavrov
 

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