Unemployment Knocked Down to 8.7%, but the numbers dont seem to add up....

[JimBowie1958]

This is weird.

Better Than Expected! U.S. Economy Added 1.37 Million Jobs in August, Unemployment Fell to 8.4%

Economists had forecast an addition of 1.32 million jobs and a decline in the unemployment rate to 9.8 percent. | Economy

www.breitbart.com

The U.S. economy added 1.37 million jobs in August and the unemployment rate fell to 8.4 percent, providing reassurance that the labor market has kept up some of its post-lockdown momentum.​

​

Economists had forecast an addition of around 1.32 million jobs and a decline in the unemployment rate to 9.8 percent from 10.2 percent last week.​

​

The economy has added around 10.5 million jobs in the past four months. The increase in the ranks of employed workers shows that companies ramped up hiring as the economy reopened and consumers came back to stores, restaurants, and other businesses that had been shuttered in March and April. Despite the gains, total employment in August was lower than its February level, highlighting just how deep the pandemic cut into what had been the strongest jobs markets in decades. ​

​

More people came into the workforce and found jobs in August. The unemployment rate declined by 1.8 percentage points to 8.4 percent, and the number​

of unemployed persons fell by 2.8 million to 13.6 million. Both measures have declined for 4 straight months but are higher than in February, prior to the pandemic.​

​

The fall in unemployment was widespread among the major worker groups. The unemployment rates declined in August for adult men (8.0 percent), adult women (8.4 percent), teenagers (16.1 percent), Whites (7.3 percent), Blacks (13.0 percent), and Hispanics (10.5 percent). The jobless rate for Asians (10.7 percent) changed​

little over the month.​

​

The labor force participation rate moved up by 0.3 percentage points to 61.7 percent in August but is 1.7 percentage points below its February level. Total employment rose by 3.8 million in August to 147.3 million.​

1) If the difference in the forecast jobs was 1.32 million, but we got 1.37 million, that is an increase of 0.05% or 50k jobs. Projected unemployment was 9.8%, but landed at 8.4%, so an additional 50k jobs caused an additional 1.4% drop in unemployment?

2) How can only 1.37 million jobs have been added if the work force added 3.8 million workers. Doesnt each new worker require a new job?

If someone can resolve this for me, I would appreciate it.

It is keeping awake.

Oh, and MAGA MY BROYOS! ! ! ! !

 

[Dekster]

This is weird.

Better Than Expected! U.S. Economy Added 1.37 Million Jobs in August, Unemployment Fell to 8.4%

Economists had forecast an addition of 1.32 million jobs and a decline in the unemployment rate to 9.8 percent. | Economy

www.breitbart.com

The U.S. economy added 1.37 million jobs in August and the unemployment rate fell to 8.4 percent, providing reassurance that the labor market has kept up some of its post-lockdown momentum.​

​

Economists had forecast an addition of around 1.32 million jobs and a decline in the unemployment rate to 9.8 percent from 10.2 percent last week.​

​

The economy has added around 10.5 million jobs in the past four months. The increase in the ranks of employed workers shows that companies ramped up hiring as the economy reopened and consumers came back to stores, restaurants, and other businesses that had been shuttered in March and April. Despite the gains, total employment in August was lower than its February level, highlighting just how deep the pandemic cut into what had been the strongest jobs markets in decades. ​

​

More people came into the workforce and found jobs in August. The unemployment rate declined by 1.8 percentage points to 8.4 percent, and the number​

of unemployed persons fell by 2.8 million to 13.6 million. Both measures have declined for 4 straight months but are higher than in February, prior to the pandemic.​

​

The fall in unemployment was widespread among the major worker groups. The unemployment rates declined in August for adult men (8.0 percent), adult women (8.4 percent), teenagers (16.1 percent), Whites (7.3 percent), Blacks (13.0 percent), and Hispanics (10.5 percent). The jobless rate for Asians (10.7 percent) changed​

little over the month.​

​

The labor force participation rate moved up by 0.3 percentage points to 61.7 percent in August but is 1.7 percentage points below its February level. Total employment rose by 3.8 million in August to 147.3 million.​

1) If the difference in the forecast jobs was 1.32 million, but we got 1.37 million, that is an increase in0.05% or 50k jobs. projected unemployment was 9,8%, but landed at 8.4%, so an additional 50k jobs caused an additional 1.4% drop in unemployment?

2) How can only 1.37 million jobs have been added if the work force added 3.8 million workers. Doesnt each new worker require a new job?

If someone can resolve this for me, I would appreciate it.

It is keeping awake.

Oh, and MAGA MY BROYOS! ! ! ! !

I expect there to be a major revision to this current report. They are way, way off the ADP estimates. ADP might be off 50K from time to time, but they are never off 900K

 

[Toro]

It's how economists calculate unemployment. Unemployment is the number of people employed divided by the workforce. The workforce is defined as the number of people actively looking for work plus the number of people employed. So there are two variables.

For example, if the number of employed people does not change but the number of people actively looking for work declines, the rate of unemployment will decline, even if the number of employed people does not change.

There's no doubt that as the economy is opening up, there are more people going back to work and the economy is growing again. However, these numbers always get revised at the end of the year. And the uniqueness of the pandemic has created measuring problems economists have never dealt with before. So these numbers may wind up being way off, to the upside or the downside.

 

[Care4all]

One thing that's been befuddling to me....

All those people small businesses are paying to stay home while not working in order to keep them for when they do, some day, reopen.... are not counted as unemployed....but if not for the small business or airlines bail out, are not working and are unemployed.... none are counted in the US number, right???

As example, the airlines say in about a month, some of those employees being paid thru the stimulus and bail out bills, will be laid off permanently....20,000 plus employees let go by just one airline when the bailout money ends....

This will happen with more than just the airlines...restaurants come to mind....

So, does this mean we could have a big swing upwards on our UE numbers when bail out money ends?

 

[Agit8r]

An administration that is doctoring the number of people dying from the plague is not above doctoring the job numbers.

 

[JimBowie1958]

It's how economists calculate unemployment. Unemployment is the number of people employed divided by the workforce. The workforce is defined as the number of people actively looking for work plus the number of people employed. So there are two variables.

For example, if the number of employed people does not change but the number of people actively looking for work declines, the rate of unemployment will decline, even if the number of employed people does not change.

There's no doubt that as the economy is opening up, there are more people going back to work and the economy is growing again. However, these numbers always get revised at the end of the year. And the uniqueness of the pandemic has created measuring problems economists have never dealt with before. So these numbers may wind up being way off, to the upside or the downside.

But the scale of differences points to a lack of 'calibration' in these studies.

With deltas like that, why would anyone put much trust in them?

I see people going back to work all over the place.

Constrruction, sales, all the primary industries seem to be thriving again, but service sector jobs are still hobbled by Governor Black Face COVID safety BS.

We should probably revise our number deriving methods, of course AFTER the election. after

 

[JimBowie1958]

One thing that's been befuddling to me....

All those people small businesses are paying to stay home while not working in order to keep them for when they do, some day, reopen.... are not counted as unemployed....but if not for the small business or airlines bail out, are not working and are unemployed.... none are counted in the US number, right???

As example, the airlines say in about a month, some of those employees being paid thru the stimulus and bail out bills, will be laid off permanently....20,000 plus employees let go by just one airline when the bailout money ends....

This will happen with more than just the airlines...restaurants come to mind....

So, does this mean we could have a big swing upwards on our UE numbers when bail out money ends?

I think that is factoring into the 'stubborn' drop in UE, but you are right.

 

[Oldestyle]

An administration that is doctoring the number of people dying from the plague is not above doctoring the job numbers.

The only number that's being "doctored" is the true number of how many people have really died from Covid 19 and not the made up number that's being given to us by the hospitals that get paid more from the Federal Government if they list their fatalities as being due to Covid!

You don't have to be a genius to figure out that the same people who have no qualms about charging $30 for an Advil if you're in the hospital aren't going to think twice about listing every patient they can as positive for Covid and having been on a ventilator before they died! It's not like family members can dispute it...you're not allowed to visit your relative who's in the hospital! The hospital says the patient died of Covid and was on a ventilator and bada bing bada bang...they get paid $40,000 by the Feds!

 

[Care4all]

An administration that is doctoring the number of people dying from the plague is not above doctoring the job numbers.

The only number that's being "doctored" is the true number of how many people have really died from Covid 19 and not the made up number that's being given to us by the hospitals that get paid more from the Federal Government if they list their fatalities as being due to Covid!

You don't have to be a genius to figure out that the same people who have no qualms about charging $30 for an Advil if you're in the hospital aren't going to think twice about listing every patient they can as positive for Covid and having been on a ventilator before they died! It's not like family members can dispute it...you're not allowed to visit your relative who's in the hospital! The hospital says the patient died of Covid and was on a ventilator and bada bing bada bang...they get paid $40,000 by the Feds!

There is no made up COVID death number....

To believe that would mean you believe every doctor who had a patient that they cared for, that died of covid, was a lie made up by all of those doctors, risking their own lives to care for them, and risking them losing their licence due to lying and fudging numbers, and the same with all Coroners in every State, committing a crime as well, who confirm and check the Doctor's cause of death.....

That is just plain WHACKO, and impossible to pull off even if every single doctor in this nation were corrupt...WHICH THEY ARE NOT!

 

[Toro]

But the scale of differences points to a lack of 'calibration' in these studies.

Yeah, it's possible.

However, the original forecasts were for far worse, if you can believe it. The economic damage, though extensive, was not as bad as some first feared.

 

[Oldestyle]

An administration that is doctoring the number of people dying from the plague is not above doctoring the job numbers.

The only number that's being "doctored" is the true number of how many people have really died from Covid 19 and not the made up number that's being given to us by the hospitals that get paid more from the Federal Government if they list their fatalities as being due to Covid!

You don't have to be a genius to figure out that the same people who have no qualms about charging $30 for an Advil if you're in the hospital aren't going to think twice about listing every patient they can as positive for Covid and having been on a ventilator before they died! It's not like family members can dispute it...you're not allowed to visit your relative who's in the hospital! The hospital says the patient died of Covid and was on a ventilator and bada bing bada bang...they get paid $40,000 by the Feds!

There is no made up COVID death number....

To believe that would mean you believe every doctor who had a patient that they cared for, that died of covid, was a lie made up by all of those doctors, risking their own lives to care for them, and risking them losing their licence due to lying and fudging numbers, and the same with all Coroners in every State, committing a crime as well, who confirm and check the Doctor's cause of death.....

That is just plain WHACKO, and impossible to pull off even if every single doctor in this nation were corrupt...WHICH THEY ARE NOT!

Are those doctors "corrupt" when they go along with the hospital charging $30 for an Advil? They understand that the hospital needs revenue to make up for all of the illegals that get free medical care each and every day. They also understand that since hospitals were prohibited from doing elective surgeries during the pandemic (which is where they make the majority of their money!) that the hospitals need money from the Federal Government to keep their doors open!

 

[Care4all]

An administration that is doctoring the number of people dying from the plague is not above doctoring the job numbers.

The only number that's being "doctored" is the true number of how many people have really died from Covid 19 and not the made up number that's being given to us by the hospitals that get paid more from the Federal Government if they list their fatalities as being due to Covid!

You don't have to be a genius to figure out that the same people who have no qualms about charging $30 for an Advil if you're in the hospital aren't going to think twice about listing every patient they can as positive for Covid and having been on a ventilator before they died! It's not like family members can dispute it...you're not allowed to visit your relative who's in the hospital! The hospital says the patient died of Covid and was on a ventilator and bada bing bada bang...they get paid $40,000 by the Feds!

There is no made up COVID death number....

To believe that would mean you believe every doctor who had a patient that they cared for, that died of covid, was a lie made up by all of those doctors, risking their own lives to care for them, and risking them losing their licence due to lying and fudging numbers, and the same with all Coroners in every State, committing a crime as well, who confirm and check the Doctor's cause of death.....

That is just plain WHACKO, and impossible to pull off even if every single doctor in this nation were corrupt...WHICH THEY ARE NOT!

Are those doctors "corrupt" when they go along with the hospital charging $30 for an Advil? They understand that the hospital needs revenue to make up for all of the illegals that get free medical care each and every day. They also understand that since hospitals were prohibited from doing elective surgeries during the pandemic (which is where they make the majority of their money!) that the hospitals need money from the Federal Government to keep their doors open!

They are not involved with Hospital billing.

They are involved with determining the cause of death, for a patient they are caring for that dies, so is the Coroner..... it is not willy nilley.....

 

[Oldestyle]

An administration that is doctoring the number of people dying from the plague is not above doctoring the job numbers.

The only number that's being "doctored" is the true number of how many people have really died from Covid 19 and not the made up number that's being given to us by the hospitals that get paid more from the Federal Government if they list their fatalities as being due to Covid!

You don't have to be a genius to figure out that the same people who have no qualms about charging $30 for an Advil if you're in the hospital aren't going to think twice about listing every patient they can as positive for Covid and having been on a ventilator before they died! It's not like family members can dispute it...you're not allowed to visit your relative who's in the hospital! The hospital says the patient died of Covid and was on a ventilator and bada bing bada bang...they get paid $40,000 by the Feds!

There is no made up COVID death number....

To believe that would mean you believe every doctor who had a patient that they cared for, that died of covid, was a lie made up by all of those doctors, risking their own lives to care for them, and risking them losing their licence due to lying and fudging numbers, and the same with all Coroners in every State, committing a crime as well, who confirm and check the Doctor's cause of death.....

That is just plain WHACKO, and impossible to pull off even if every single doctor in this nation were corrupt...WHICH THEY ARE NOT!

Are those doctors "corrupt" when they go along with the hospital charging $30 for an Advil? They understand that the hospital needs revenue to make up for all of the illegals that get free medical care each and every day. They also understand that since hospitals were prohibited from doing elective surgeries during the pandemic (which is where they make the majority of their money!) that the hospitals need money from the Federal Government to keep their doors open!

They are not involved with Hospital billing.

They are involved with determining the cause of death, for a patient they are caring for that dies, so is the Coroner..... it is not willy nilley.....

Exactly...they're NOT involved with hospital billing! That doesn't change the fact that every patient that's listed as dying from Covid gets the hospital more money. So tell me who DOES fill out the paperwork, Care? What I'm saying is that if a patient dies of lung cancer and they also have Covid...how do you think that death certificate is filled out? Don't be so naive...

 

[JimBowie1958]

They are not involved with Hospital billing.
They are involved with determining the cause of death, for a patient they are caring for that dies, so is the Coroner..... it is not willy nilley.....

Exactly...they're NOT involved with hospital billing! That doesn't change the fact that every patient that's listed as dying from Covid gets the hospital more money. So tell me who DOES fill out the paperwork, Care? What I'm saying is that if a patient dies of lung cancer and they also have Covid...how do you think that death certificate is filled out? Don't be so naive...

There is a slight difference between 'making up numbers' vrs improper classification in number counts.

 

[Zorro!]

This is weird.

Better Than Expected! U.S. Economy Added 1.37 Million Jobs in August, Unemployment Fell to 8.4%

Economists had forecast an addition of 1.32 million jobs and a decline in the unemployment rate to 9.8 percent. | Economy

www.breitbart.com

The U.S. economy added 1.37 million jobs in August and the unemployment rate fell to 8.4 percent, providing reassurance that the labor market has kept up some of its post-lockdown momentum.​

​

Economists had forecast an addition of around 1.32 million jobs and a decline in the unemployment rate to 9.8 percent from 10.2 percent last week.​

​

The economy has added around 10.5 million jobs in the past four months. The increase in the ranks of employed workers shows that companies ramped up hiring as the economy reopened and consumers came back to stores, restaurants, and other businesses that had been shuttered in March and April. Despite the gains, total employment in August was lower than its February level, highlighting just how deep the pandemic cut into what had been the strongest jobs markets in decades. ​

​

More people came into the workforce and found jobs in August. The unemployment rate declined by 1.8 percentage points to 8.4 percent, and the number​

of unemployed persons fell by 2.8 million to 13.6 million. Both measures have declined for 4 straight months but are higher than in February, prior to the pandemic.​

​

The fall in unemployment was widespread among the major worker groups. The unemployment rates declined in August for adult men (8.0 percent), adult women (8.4 percent), teenagers (16.1 percent), Whites (7.3 percent), Blacks (13.0 percent), and Hispanics (10.5 percent). The jobless rate for Asians (10.7 percent) changed​

little over the month.​

​

The labor force participation rate moved up by 0.3 percentage points to 61.7 percent in August but is 1.7 percentage points below its February level. Total employment rose by 3.8 million in August to 147.3 million.​

1) If the difference in the forecast jobs was 1.32 million, but we got 1.37 million, that is an increase of 0.05% or 50k jobs. Projected unemployment was 9.8%, but landed at 8.4%, so an additional 50k jobs caused an additional 1.4% drop in unemployment?

2) How can only 1.37 million jobs have been added if the work force added 3.8 million workers. Doesnt each new worker require a new job?

If someone can resolve this for me, I would appreciate it.

It is keeping awake.

Oh, and MAGA MY BROYOS! ! ! ! !

The Household survey also picks up self-employed. The increase was 3.756M

​

Jobs comes from the Establishment Survey and is only Payroll Jobs.

The Unemployment rate comes from the Household Survey and also includes the self employed.

Links to both are here:

Employment Situation | FRED | St. Louis Fed

Release: Employment Situation, 3,571 economic data series, FRED: Download, graph, and track economic data.

fred.stlouisfed.org

Fun Fact.

Current Trump Unemployment Rate Less Than Obama’s Average Rate His Entire First Term

The Trump recovery is the greatest recovery on record.
Job numbers released yesterday through the end of August were massive. There was an increase of more than a million jobs! And the unemployment rate dropped to 8.4%, almost 2 points lower than July’s 10.2%!

Aug 2020 8.4% unemployment (with pandemic)
Aug 2012 8.1% unemployment (Biden VP, no pandemic) https://t.co/OAsbg6VV2B

But it’s even better than that. The current unemployment rate of 8.4% is less than the average rate (9%) for the Obama Administration in their first term at the respective point in the Obama Presidency:

Despite Democrats trying to tank their state economies to prevent the US economy from recovering, the current economy is better than Obama’s entire first term.