Two Cruise Ship Cases Prove that COVID-19 Is Not Even Close to Being 100% Contagious

Being exposed to a virus does not mean you are automatically going to get it. Our family of four are not big fans of flu shots for lots of reasons (we did get our other vaccines). One year our daughter was guilted into the flu shot. She was the ONLY one of us to get Influenza A, dx officially by blood test. The rest of the three of us did not--and we were not vaccinated, but were exposed obviously.
That was just coincidence.

Think about this.

When a flu goes through a classroom, does every single child get the virus....ever?

No. I have been teaching for over two decades. I have never, not once ever, seen it happen. A viral infection rate is not 100%

So 70 year olds should go back to work and "take one for the gipper?"

It was reported this morning that half of Virginia's cases were under the age of 50.
Chinese biolab produced viruses can be tricky.

That's awful! In Texas they have an answer for keeping the young well.

 
Here is some very encouraging news: The cases of two cruise ships prove that COVID-19 is not even close to being 100% contagious. In other words, if you come into contact with an infected person, this does *not* mean you will automatically catch the virus. The cruise ships were the Diamond Princess and the Grand Princess. Well below 50% of the people on those ships caught the virus, even though they were exposed to the virus in a relatively small, confined area.

In the case of the Diamond Princess, 712 out of 3,711 people in the confined environment of the cruise ship caught the virus. That means that only 19.2% of the people who came into contact with the virus caught the virus.

But, let's assume, just for the sake of argument, that half of the Diamond Princess passengers somehow never had contact with any infected persons. That would mean that 712 out of 1850 passengers who were exposed to the virus caught the virus. That would still be a contraction rate of well below 50% (38.5%, to be exact).

Also, among the 712 passengers who caught the virus, 331, or 46.5%, had experienced no symptoms as of the time they were tested. Furthermore, only 9.7% of those who experienced symptoms required intensive care.

As for deaths among the 712 Diamond Princess passengers who caught the virus, some sources say that 8 people died. The CDC says that 9 people died. 8 deaths out of 712 is a death rate of 1.125%, or a 98.875% survival rate. If 9 people died, 9 deaths out of 712 cases is death rate of 1.3%, or a 98.7% survival rate.

In the case of the Grand Princess, there were 1,179 people on board (1,111 passengers and 68 crew members). As far as the CDC can determine, 119 people on the Grand Princess caught the virus. If 119 of the 1,179 people on the Grand Princess caught the virus, that means that only 10.1% of the people who were exposed to the virus caught the virus.

Even if we assume that 70% of the people on the Grand Princess somehow never came into contact with any infected persons, that would still mean that only 119 out of 825 people who were exposed to the virus caught the virus, which would be a contraction rate of only 14.5%.

As for deaths on the Grand Princess, as far as the CDC can determine, only 1 of the 119 people who caught the virus died from it. 1 death out of 119 cases is a death rate of 0.842%, or less than 1%, or a 99.158% survival rate.

Here is the CDC report on the Diamond Princess and Grand Princess cases:


Has anyone ever claimed it was 100% contagious?
No
 
Next year's Darwin awards may be given out to the American right who decided to sacrifice it's weaker members for the sake of the economy.
Sacrifice pfffft give me a break. Like we're lining up old people and shoveling them into the mouth of a volcano. Ok so for the sake of argument let's take your approach. What would make you happy? A national shutdown for 10 weeks like Bill Gates wants? Maybe more right? Shut down the country until we can be totally assured that our +80 year olds dragging oxygen bottles around can safely go their Tuesday night bingo.
 
Here is some very encouraging news: The cases of two cruise ships prove that COVID-19 is not even close to being 100% contagious. In other words, if you come into contact with an infected person, this does *not* mean you will automatically catch the virus. The cruise ships were the Diamond Princess and the Grand Princess. Well below 50% of the people on those ships caught the virus, even though they were exposed to the virus in a relatively small, confined area.

In the case of the Diamond Princess, 712 out of 3,711 people in the confined environment of the cruise ship caught the virus. That means that only 19.2% of the people who came into contact with the virus caught the virus.

But, let's assume, just for the sake of argument, that half of the Diamond Princess passengers somehow never had contact with any infected persons. That would mean that 712 out of 1850 passengers who were exposed to the virus caught the virus. That would still be a contraction rate of well below 50% (38.5%, to be exact).

Also, among the 712 passengers who caught the virus, 331, or 46.5%, had experienced no symptoms as of the time they were tested. Furthermore, only 9.7% of those who experienced symptoms required intensive care.

As for deaths among the 712 Diamond Princess passengers who caught the virus, some sources say that 8 people died. The CDC says that 9 people died. 8 deaths out of 712 is a death rate of 1.125%, or a 98.875% survival rate. If 9 people died, 9 deaths out of 712 cases is death rate of 1.3%, or a 98.7% survival rate.

In the case of the Grand Princess, there were 1,179 people on board (1,111 passengers and 68 crew members). As far as the CDC can determine, 119 people on the Grand Princess caught the virus. If 119 of the 1,179 people on the Grand Princess caught the virus, that means that only 10.1% of the people who were exposed to the virus caught the virus.

Even if we assume that 70% of the people on the Grand Princess somehow never came into contact with any infected persons, that would still mean that only 119 out of 825 people who were exposed to the virus caught the virus, which would be a contraction rate of only 14.5%.

As for deaths on the Grand Princess, as far as the CDC can determine, only 1 of the 119 people who caught the virus died from it. 1 death out of 119 cases is a death rate of 0.842%, or less than 1%, or a 99.158% survival rate.

Here is the CDC report on the Diamond Princess and Grand Princess cases:


Has anyone ever claimed it was 100% contagious?
We knew the contagion rate was in the 10-15% region for three months now.. Only the hype from CNN and MSDNC was claiming it was higher.

What is a “contagion rate” and how is it defined?

In epidemiology it's expressed as R0 (pronounced "R nought"), also known as "basic reproduction number." An R0 number is assigned to an infectious disease based on how contagious it is, with a higher number meaning a more contagious disease. It is defined as the expected number of cases directly generated by one case in a population where all individuals are susceptible to infection.

Pertussis (whooping cough) has one of the highest R0 numbers at 15. By comparison, the 2018 strain of influenza had an R0 of 1.53. The 2009 H1N1-pdm09 strain had an R0 of 1.6, and SARS had an R0 of 2-5 (depending on the source).

This is a pretty thorough study that analyzes the R0 of the 2009 H1N1 virus: The American Journal of Public Health (AJPH) from the American Public Health Association (APHA) publications

There is not nearly enough data to determine the R0 of the COVID-19 virus at this point.
 
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Here is some very encouraging news: The cases of two cruise ships prove that COVID-19 is not even close to being 100% contagious. In other words, if you come into contact with an infected person, this does *not* mean you will automatically catch the virus. The cruise ships were the Diamond Princess and the Grand Princess. Well below 50% of the people on those ships caught the virus, even though they were exposed to the virus in a relatively small, confined area.

In the case of the Diamond Princess, 712 out of 3,711 people in the confined environment of the cruise ship caught the virus. That means that only 19.2% of the people who came into contact with the virus caught the virus.

But, let's assume, just for the sake of argument, that half of the Diamond Princess passengers somehow never had contact with any infected persons. That would mean that 712 out of 1850 passengers who were exposed to the virus caught the virus. That would still be a contraction rate of well below 50% (38.5%, to be exact).

Also, among the 712 passengers who caught the virus, 331, or 46.5%, had experienced no symptoms as of the time they were tested. Furthermore, only 9.7% of those who experienced symptoms required intensive care.

As for deaths among the 712 Diamond Princess passengers who caught the virus, some sources say that 8 people died. The CDC says that 9 people died. 8 deaths out of 712 is a death rate of 1.125%, or a 98.875% survival rate. If 9 people died, 9 deaths out of 712 cases is death rate of 1.3%, or a 98.7% survival rate.

In the case of the Grand Princess, there were 1,179 people on board (1,111 passengers and 68 crew members). As far as the CDC can determine, 119 people on the Grand Princess caught the virus. If 119 of the 1,179 people on the Grand Princess caught the virus, that means that only 10.1% of the people who were exposed to the virus caught the virus.

Even if we assume that 70% of the people on the Grand Princess somehow never came into contact with any infected persons, that would still mean that only 119 out of 825 people who were exposed to the virus caught the virus, which would be a contraction rate of only 14.5%.

As for deaths on the Grand Princess, as far as the CDC can determine, only 1 of the 119 people who caught the virus died from it. 1 death out of 119 cases is a death rate of 0.842%, or less than 1%, or a 99.158% survival rate.

Here is the CDC report on the Diamond Princess and Grand Princess cases:

Excellent analysis. :113:
 
Next year's Darwin awards may be given out to the American right who decided to sacrifice it's weaker members for the sake of the economy.
Sacrifice pfffft give me a break. Like we're lining up old people and shoveling them into the mouth of a volcano. Ok so for the sake of argument let's take your approach. What would make you happy? A national shutdown for 10 weeks like Bill Gates wants? Maybe more right? Shut down the country until we can be totally assured that our +80 year olds dragging oxygen bottles around can safely go their Tuesday night bingo.
I really don't care how many old Trump farts decide to off themselves as long as it is an informed choice. But that's not the case is it? There are going to be a lot of needless infections and further spreading just because Trump continues to mislead his faithful disciples that the economy and his reelection campaign is more important than their lives. .
 
Being exposed to a virus does not mean you are automatically going to get it. Our family of four are not big fans of flu shots for lots of reasons (we did get our other vaccines). One year our daughter was guilted into the flu shot. She was the ONLY one of us to get Influenza A, dx officially by blood test. The rest of the three of us did not--and we were not vaccinated, but were exposed obviously.
That was just coincidence.

Think about this.

When a flu goes through a classroom, does every single child get the virus....ever?

No. I have been teaching for over two decades. I have never, not once ever, seen it happen. A viral infection rate is not 100%

So 70 year olds should go back to work and "take one for the gipper?"

It was reported this morning that half of Virginia's cases were under the age of 50.
Chinese biolab produced viruses can be tricky.

That's awful! In Texas they have an answer for keeping the young well.

God bless Texas
 
Being exposed to a virus does not mean you are automatically going to get it. Our family of four are not big fans of flu shots for lots of reasons (we did get our other vaccines). One year our daughter was guilted into the flu shot. She was the ONLY one of us to get Influenza A, dx officially by blood test. The rest of the three of us did not--and we were not vaccinated, but were exposed obviously.
That was just coincidence.

Think about this.

When a flu goes through a classroom, does every single child get the virus....ever?

No. I have been teaching for over two decades. I have never, not once ever, seen it happen. A viral infection rate is not 100%

So 70 year olds should go back to work and "take one for the gipper?"

It was reported this morning that half of Virginia's cases were under the age of 50.
Chinese biolab produced viruses can be tricky.

That's awful! In Texas they have an answer for keeping the young well.

God bless Texas

God help the seniors of Texas
 
Next year's Darwin awards may be given out to the American right who decided to sacrifice it's weaker members for the sake of the economy.
Sacrifice pfffft give me a break. Like we're lining up old people and shoveling them into the mouth of a volcano. Ok so for the sake of argument let's take your approach. What would make you happy? A national shutdown for 10 weeks like Bill Gates wants? Maybe more right? Shut down the country until we can be totally assured that our +80 year olds dragging oxygen bottles around can safely go their Tuesday night bingo.
I really don't care how many old Trump farts decide to off themselves as long as it is an informed choice. But that's not the case is it? There are going to be a lot of needless infections and further spreading just because Trump continues to mislead his faithful disciples that the economy and his reelection campaign is more important than their lives. .

And these soulless ghouls want me to be "in it together" with them. Every time I hear that phrase I want to gag.

These are the humans that advocated 50 millions babies murdered since Roe v. Wade. Who cheer at the thought of their political enemies' deaths.

In it with THEM?

Never.

I mean it. Never.
 

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