Top Investers Start Dumping Stocks, Signal to Exit DOW?

JimBowie1958

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Billionaires Dumping Stocks, Economist Knows Why

Despite the 6.5% stock market rally over the last three months, a handful of billionaires are quietly dumping their American stocks . . . and fast.

Warren Buffett, who has been a cheerleader for U.S. stocks for quite some time, is dumping shares at an alarming rate. He recently complained of “disappointing performance” in dyed-in-the-wool American companies like Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, and Kraft Foods.

In the latest filing for Buffett’s holding company Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett has been drastically reducing his exposure to stocks that depend on consumer purchasing habits. Berkshire sold roughly 19 million shares of Johnson & Johnson, and reduced his overall stake in “consumer product stocks” by 21%. Berkshire Hathaway also sold its entire stake in California-based computer parts supplier Intel.

With 70% of the U.S. economy dependent on consumer spending, Buffett’s apparent lack of faith in these companies’ future prospects is worrisome.

Unfortunately Buffett isn’t alone.

Fellow billionaire John Paulson, who made a fortune betting on the subprime mortgage meltdown, is clearing out of U.S. stocks too. During the second quarter of the year, Paulson’s hedge fund, Paulson & Co., dumped 14 million shares of JPMorgan Chase. The fund also dumped its entire position in discount retailer Family Dollar and consumer-goods maker Sara Lee.

Finally, billionaire George Soros recently sold nearly all of his bank stocks, including shares of JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs. Between the three banks, Soros sold more than a million shares.

So why are these billionaires dumping their shares of U.S. companies?

The Bearish Call to End All Bearish Calls - MoneyBeat - WSJ

In what may be the bearish call to end all bearish calls, one technician believes 2014 will be the year of “major reversals,” with the Dow Jones Industrial Average expected to start a two-year decline that could eventually take it down more than 70% to below 5000.

United-ICAP chief market technician Walter Zimmerman said the Dow Industrials could still rally another 4% or so first, to a high around 17150, before the great reversal begins. And for those who thought 2008 was the worst bear market they will ever see, just wait.

“Based on our longer-term time cycles the present stock market rally must be considered the bubble to end all bubbles,” Mr. Zimmerman wrote in a note to clients.

He doesn’t believe the Dow Industrials will hit a long-term cycle low until 2016, somewhere in the 5770 to 4650 range. The Dow hasn’t seen those levels, which are 65% to 72% below current prices, since late-1995 to mid-1996
What happens when you turn off the money spicket that has been inflating the stock markets since 2008?

A crash. When will it happen? Anybody's guess is as good as the next, since markets can stay irrational longer than most of us can wait it out.
 

Truthmatters

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why didn't you skanks believe me when I told you this shit was going to crash due to the housing market being used as a cash machine for the banks?
 

Sallow

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:lol:

I am so glad none of you folks are in charge of nothing important right now.

And hopefully the House gets cleared out of anti-government fools in November.
 
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JimBowie1958

JimBowie1958

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The Next Meltdown | National Review Online


gee what happened to the HYPER inflation he predicted?
From your article:

That’s what they said about his first book, America’s Bubble Economy, in which Wiedemer and his co-authors, his Ph.D. brother David and writer Cindy Spitzer, predicted that the U.S. residential real-estate market was overvalued and due for a crash. That was in 2006, months before the crash actually occurred. Now Wiedemer is warning people that another bubble is about to collapse: America itself.

More specifically, it is Wiedemer’s view that the U.S. dollar will be the next bubble to burst. The government’s fiscal position, he explains, is unsustainable. America owes six times what it collects in tax revenues each year, and that ratio is projected to explode with the retirement of the baby boomers. On top of that, nearly 40 percent of U.S. debt must be refinanced each year, leaving the government highly vulnerable to rising interest rates. The Fed’s printing presses have been working overtime throughout the crisis, buying Treasuries and other securities to keep the economy afloat. This is a recipe for hyperinflation, and the New York Hedge Fund Roundtable has invited Wiedemer to this small conference room overlooking Park Avenue to tell investors how they can protect themselves from the fallout. His advice in one word: “Gold.”
As long as the Federal Reserve continues to buy its own securities that do not sell the interests rates will stay low, the risk being that other countries may dump your securities as they perceive them as being over printed with nothing behind them. The thing is we have petroleum backing our currency as long as the Saudis and other Gulf nations accept payment only in US Dollars. That huge reserve of USD is going to keep demand for the dollar going strong no matter what the Feds do, and so hyper-inflation is averted.

But if the Saudis decide to take payments in other currencies....well then we see inflation and the Federal reserve gets caught between a rock and a hard place as they cant raise interest rates to kill inflation because that would make the Federal Debt shoot through the ceiling, and continuing to print USD denominated securities will totally destroy confidence in those securities and they get dumped which leads to inflation.

Hope that helps explain why we have seen no inflation up to now, IMO.

YMMV.
 
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JimBowie1958

JimBowie1958

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:lol:

I am so glad none of you folks are in charge of nothing important right now.

And hopefully the House gets cleared out of anti-government fools in November.
Is there a single topic that you libtards don't drag partisan politics into?

You absolute fanaticism is turning people off, so it is good to see for that reason.

And if you think Bernanke and Greenspan were our best economists then you are an idiot.
 
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JimBowie1958

JimBowie1958

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why didn't you skanks believe me when I told you this shit was going to crash due to the housing market being used as a cash machine for the banks?
Not sure who you are referring to, but I also believed the housing bubble was going to crash as did many other people.
 

Delta4Embassy

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Billionaires Dumping Stocks, Economist Knows Why

Despite the 6.5% stock market rally over the last three months, a handful of billionaires are quietly dumping their American stocks . . . and fast.

Warren Buffett, who has been a cheerleader for U.S. stocks for quite some time, is dumping shares at an alarming rate. He recently complained of “disappointing performance” in dyed-in-the-wool American companies like Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, and Kraft Foods.

In the latest filing for Buffett’s holding company Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett has been drastically reducing his exposure to stocks that depend on consumer purchasing habits. Berkshire sold roughly 19 million shares of Johnson & Johnson, and reduced his overall stake in “consumer product stocks” by 21%. Berkshire Hathaway also sold its entire stake in California-based computer parts supplier Intel.

With 70% of the U.S. economy dependent on consumer spending, Buffett’s apparent lack of faith in these companies’ future prospects is worrisome.

Unfortunately Buffett isn’t alone.

Fellow billionaire John Paulson, who made a fortune betting on the subprime mortgage meltdown, is clearing out of U.S. stocks too. During the second quarter of the year, Paulson’s hedge fund, Paulson & Co., dumped 14 million shares of JPMorgan Chase. The fund also dumped its entire position in discount retailer Family Dollar and consumer-goods maker Sara Lee.

Finally, billionaire George Soros recently sold nearly all of his bank stocks, including shares of JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs. Between the three banks, Soros sold more than a million shares.

So why are these billionaires dumping their shares of U.S. companies?

The Bearish Call to End All Bearish Calls - MoneyBeat - WSJ

In what may be the bearish call to end all bearish calls, one technician believes 2014 will be the year of “major reversals,” with the Dow Jones Industrial Average expected to start a two-year decline that could eventually take it down more than 70% to below 5000.

United-ICAP chief market technician Walter Zimmerman said the Dow Industrials could still rally another 4% or so first, to a high around 17150, before the great reversal begins. And for those who thought 2008 was the worst bear market they will ever see, just wait.

“Based on our longer-term time cycles the present stock market rally must be considered the bubble to end all bubbles,” Mr. Zimmerman wrote in a note to clients.

He doesn’t believe the Dow Industrials will hit a long-term cycle low until 2016, somewhere in the 5770 to 4650 range. The Dow hasn’t seen those levels, which are 65% to 72% below current prices, since late-1995 to mid-1996
What happens when you turn off the money spicket that has been inflating the stock markets since 2008?

A crash. When will it happen? Anybody's guess is as good as the next, since markets can stay irrational longer than most of us can wait it out.
It's called 'taking profits.' When large-scale investors do it, chances are because they realize how it looks and can cause an actual decline in values, they're probably taking profits on the uptick, and shorting those same stocks on the expected downtick. Good strategy is all it is. Short-term flucuations in value don't, or shouldn't, be an indicator of anything. When you invest you're investing long-term or not at all. But taking profits is always a good idea if you think values are near the top of the curve. Sell at the top, short on the way down, then buy-back when low, repeat.
 
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JimBowie1958

JimBowie1958

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Billionaires Dumping Stocks, Economist Knows Why

Despite the 6.5% stock market rally over the last three months, a handful of billionaires are quietly dumping their American stocks . . . and fast.

Warren Buffett, who has been a cheerleader for U.S. stocks for quite some time, is dumping shares at an alarming rate. He recently complained of “disappointing performance” in dyed-in-the-wool American companies like Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, and Kraft Foods.

In the latest filing for Buffett’s holding company Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett has been drastically reducing his exposure to stocks that depend on consumer purchasing habits. Berkshire sold roughly 19 million shares of Johnson & Johnson, and reduced his overall stake in “consumer product stocks” by 21%. Berkshire Hathaway also sold its entire stake in California-based computer parts supplier Intel.

With 70% of the U.S. economy dependent on consumer spending, Buffett’s apparent lack of faith in these companies’ future prospects is worrisome.

Unfortunately Buffett isn’t alone.

Fellow billionaire John Paulson, who made a fortune betting on the subprime mortgage meltdown, is clearing out of U.S. stocks too. During the second quarter of the year, Paulson’s hedge fund, Paulson & Co., dumped 14 million shares of JPMorgan Chase. The fund also dumped its entire position in discount retailer Family Dollar and consumer-goods maker Sara Lee.

Finally, billionaire George Soros recently sold nearly all of his bank stocks, including shares of JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs. Between the three banks, Soros sold more than a million shares.

So why are these billionaires dumping their shares of U.S. companies?

The Bearish Call to End All Bearish Calls - MoneyBeat - WSJ

In what may be the bearish call to end all bearish calls, one technician believes 2014 will be the year of “major reversals,” with the Dow Jones Industrial Average expected to start a two-year decline that could eventually take it down more than 70% to below 5000.

United-ICAP chief market technician Walter Zimmerman said the Dow Industrials could still rally another 4% or so first, to a high around 17150, before the great reversal begins. And for those who thought 2008 was the worst bear market they will ever see, just wait.

“Based on our longer-term time cycles the present stock market rally must be considered the bubble to end all bubbles,” Mr. Zimmerman wrote in a note to clients.

He doesn’t believe the Dow Industrials will hit a long-term cycle low until 2016, somewhere in the 5770 to 4650 range. The Dow hasn’t seen those levels, which are 65% to 72% below current prices, since late-1995 to mid-1996
What happens when you turn off the money spicket that has been inflating the stock markets since 2008?

A crash. When will it happen? Anybody's guess is as good as the next, since markets can stay irrational longer than most of us can wait it out.
It's called 'taking profits.' When large-scale investors do it, chances are because they realize how it looks and can cause an actual decline in values, they're probably taking profits on the uptick, and shorting those same stocks on the expected downtick. Good strategy is all it is. Short-term flucuations in value don't, or shouldn't, be an indicator of anything. When you invest you're investing long-term or not at all. But taking profits is always a good idea if you think values are near the top of the curve. Sell at the top, short on the way down, then buy-back when low, repeat.
But we also have a convergence of multiple economic depressors like Obamacare kicking in full effect, confusion about what future tax policies are going to be, the QE tapering being rolled out and oncoming disasters from our relaxing against the war on terrorist groups.

I would pull all my investments...except I already have. :D
 

Delta4Embassy

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Stock investments are stunningly simple. They either go up, go down, or stay about the same. All the other stuff is just used to confuse people, like Legalese.

"Don't invest on your own, give your money to us to invest for you." :)
 

Truthmatters

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your great predictor thought we would be in hyper inflation now.

His track record isn't as good as you claim OP
 

Zander

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Yawn.....

Stock prices fluctuate. But over time, there is no better place to grow your money than the Stock (and bond) market. Individual investors make the mistake of allowing emotions to intervene- they buy at market tops and sell at bottoms. The only antidote to this is a PLAN.

An Investment policy statement (IPS) is a statement that defines general investment goals and objectives. It describes the strategies that will be used to meet these objectives and contains specific information on subjects such as asset allocation, risk tolerance, and liquidity requirements.

My advice? Create an IPS and stick with it- over the long haul you'll come out way ahead.

:thup:
 

bigrebnc1775

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:lol:

I am so glad none of you folks are in charge of nothing important right now.

And hopefully the House gets cleared out of anti-government fools in November.
Pro obama equals pro tyrant anti America. as soon as we clean the senate of anti America traitors America will be ok.
 
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JimBowie1958

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Yawn.....

Stock prices fluctuate. But over time, there is no better place to grow your money than the Stock (and bond) market. Individual investors make the mistake of allowing emotions to intervene- they buy at market tops and sell at bottoms. The only antidote to this is a PLAN.

An Investment policy statement (IPS) is a statement that defines general investment goals and objectives. It describes the strategies that will be used to meet these objectives and contains specific information on subjects such as asset allocation, risk tolerance, and liquidity requirements.

My advice? Create an IPS and stick with it- over the long haul you'll come out way ahead.

:thup:
You assume that the plan will be a good plan, and that the market wont have a major large cycle retrace that could return to DOW 12,000. That is a very up hill climb.

Commodities and treasuries are probably safer for the next year or so, I have read.

But YMMV
 

Zander

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Yawn.....

Stock prices fluctuate. But over time, there is no better place to grow your money than the Stock (and bond) market. Individual investors make the mistake of allowing emotions to intervene- they buy at market tops and sell at bottoms. The only antidote to this is a PLAN.

An Investment policy statement (IPS) is a statement that defines general investment goals and objectives. It describes the strategies that will be used to meet these objectives and contains specific information on subjects such as asset allocation, risk tolerance, and liquidity requirements.

My advice? Create an IPS and stick with it- over the long haul you'll come out way ahead.

:thup:
You assume that the plan will be a good plan, and that the market wont have a major large cycle retrace that could return to DOW 12,000. That is a very up hill climb.

Commodities and treasuries are probably safer for the next year or so, I have read.

But YMMV
IMHO, Almost any plan is better than "no plan". Having "no plan" makes you susceptible to scams and emotion based decision making. Most individual investors sell at market bottoms, and buy at market tops. They get caught up in the roller coaster ride of the market, get frustrated and it costs them a shitload of money.

If you are investing for the next "year or so" you really are not investing at all- you are speculating. That's fine- but your serious "long term" money should be invested in an asset allocation (AA) that you can stick with regardless of short term fluctuations. If you are still working and contributing it is even more important to ignore short term fluctuations.

Personally, I use a simple 60/40 portfolio model with 6 asset classes. (us stock, int'l stock, reits, US bonds, int'l bonds, and cash). It's a tax efficient and simple to manage portfolio that requires only 15 minutes a year to maintain and re-balance.

PS- I do play around with a small percentage of my cash account- just for shits and giggles. But I don't play games with my long term money....EVER.

:thup:
 

whitehall

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Why do we need to bash low information heads with the reality that investors do not trust the United States to lead the economic world? Investors do not trust Barry Hussein's agenda and the democrat party base that supports freaking "occupy wall street" anarchists.
 

SteadyMercury

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Why do we need to bash low information heads with the reality that investors do not trust the United States to lead the economic world?
Irony, given you appear to be low information head-in-chief.

Global stock funds attract record inflows in 2013: Report
Last year's flows into stock funds were the largest since records began in 2002. Funds that specialize in U.S. stocks attracted $2.8 billion in the week, bringing inflows to about $115 billion in 2013, data from the report showed.
Investors don't trust the United States... oh except for the 115 billion in stock inflows last year.
 

SteadyMercury

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Personally, I use a simple 60/40 portfolio model with 6 asset classes. (us stock, int'l stock, reits, US bonds, int'l bonds, and cash). It's a tax efficient and simple to manage portfolio that requires only 15 minutes a year to maintain and re-balance.
Good stuff.

I use a 30/30/30/10 of us stocks, intl stocks, bonds, small cap. All low cost index funds.

Just did my annual rebalance New Year's day, took more than 15 minutes because of the way I have everything split up for tax efficiency but I got 'er done. Good luck in 2014.
 

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