Tipping-Point for alternative fuels: 2020 (Germany)

[Statistikhengst]

UBS Time to join the solar EV storage revolution Renew Economy

Leading investment bank UBS says the payback time for unsubsidised investment in electric vehicles plus rooftop solar plus battery storage will be as low as 6-8 years by 2020 – triggering a massive revolution in the energy industry.

“It’s time to join the revolution,” UBS says in a note to clients, in what could be interpreted as a massive slap-down to those governments and corporates who believe that centralised fossil fuel generation will dominate for decades to come...

..By the end of the decade, it says, the combination of will deliver a pay-back time of between six to 8 years, as this graph below shows. It will fall to around 3 years by 2030. Right now, the payback is probably around 12 years,

This is the graph:

The UBS report is focused on Europe, where it says that Germany, Spain, and Italy will be leaders because of their high electricity and fuel costs. But it could equally apply to Australia, which has both high electricity and high fuel costs, and a lot more sun – so solar is much cheaper.

UBS forecasts that EVs and plug-in hybrid will account for around 10 per cent of the market in Europe by 2025...

...
“Our view is that the ‘we have done it like this for a century’ value chain in developed electricity markets will be turned upside down within the next 10-20 years, driven by solar and batteries.

“As a virtuous circle, lower battery cost will also spur EV sales, which should bring further economies of scale to batteries, also for stationary applications. Power is no longer something that is exclusively produced by huge, centralised units owned by large utilities.

“By 2025, everybody will be able to produce and store power. And it will be green and cost competitive, ie, not more expensive or even cheaper than buying power from utilities.

“It is also the most efficient way to produce power where it is consumed, because transmission losses will be minimised.

And by the way, we are talking about a Tipping-Point and payback rate for alternative energy WITHOUT SUBSIDIES:

Why EVs will make solar viable without subsidies Renew Economy

(it's all in the report).

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now, fossil-fuel dinosaurs out there can make the claim that petroleum products are used in the making of alternative energy devices and this is mostly true, but the amount needed is a mere fraction of what we are just burning to create energy every day. Plus, the new devices are lasting longer and longer and longer.

Wind turbines
Underwater turbines
Solar
And one day soon: fusion

The future is closer to our doorsteps than we realize.

 

[Rikurzhen]

UBS Time to join the solar EV storage revolution Renew Economy

Leading investment bank UBS says the payback time for unsubsidised investment in electric vehicles plus rooftop solar plus battery storage will be as low as 6-8 years by 2020 – triggering a massive revolution in the energy industry.

“It’s time to join the revolution,” UBS says in a note to clients, in what could be interpreted as a massive slap-down to those governments and corporates who believe that centralised fossil fuel generation will dominate for decades to come...

..By the end of the decade, it says, the combination of will deliver a pay-back time of between six to 8 years, as this graph below shows. It will fall to around 3 years by 2030. Right now, the payback is probably around 12 years,

This is the graph:

The UBS report is focused on Europe, where it says that Germany, Spain, and Italy will be leaders because of their high electricity and fuel costs. But it could equally apply to Australia, which has both high electricity and high fuel costs, and a lot more sun – so solar is much cheaper.

UBS forecasts that EVs and plug-in hybrid will account for around 10 per cent of the market in Europe by 2025...

...
“Our view is that the ‘we have done it like this for a century’ value chain in developed electricity markets will be turned upside down within the next 10-20 years, driven by solar and batteries.

“As a virtuous circle, lower battery cost will also spur EV sales, which should bring further economies of scale to batteries, also for stationary applications. Power is no longer something that is exclusively produced by huge, centralised units owned by large utilities.

“By 2025, everybody will be able to produce and store power. And it will be green and cost competitive, ie, not more expensive or even cheaper than buying power from utilities.

“It is also the most efficient way to produce power where it is consumed, because transmission losses will be minimised.

And by the way, we are talking about a Tipping-Point and payback rate for alternative energy WITHOUT SUBSIDIES:

Why EVs will make solar viable without subsidies Renew Economy

(it's all in the report).

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now, fossil-fuel dinosaurs out there can make the claim that petroleum products are used in the making of alternative energy devices and this is mostly true, but the amount needed is a mere fraction of what we are just burning to create energy every day. Plus, the new devices are lasting longer and longer and longer.

Wind turbines
Underwater turbines
Solar
And one day soon: fusion

The future is closer to our doorsteps than we realize.

A few problems.

1.) The payback period is decreased in jurisdictions with high fuel and energy costs. Fossil fuels are traded internationally with transparent pricing. The factor which makes fuel and energy in Germany expensive is the taxation scheme. I don't care about whether this is good or bad, it doesn't matter, what matters is that there is a differential between the taxed price and the untaxed price.

There have no been a few jurisdictions which have pushed for more Electric Vehicles and then suffered the "unexpected" gasoline tax shortfall to their road & highway budget.

The problem here is that Germany depends on the revenue stream coming from fuel and energy taxes. Every vehicle or household which disconnects from the fossil fuel infrastructure also disconnects from paying those taxes.

The tax revenue funds expenditures. Governments rarely reduce expenditures when faced with a revenue shortfall, instead they seek new sources of revenue. This is likely to happen in Germany, people will have a shorter payback time on their solar investment while simultaneously bearing the burden of higher taxes to make-up for the revenue shortfalls from solar adapters. Those hardest hit will be the non-solar adapters in that they're paying a share of the tax shortfall caused by solar adapters leaving the fossil fuel energy system. Who knows how this injustice will play out in the political realm. It may play out by isolating the solar adapters and sticking them with the bill for the taxes that they would have paid via energy and fuel usage, thus cutting out a good part of the payback incentive.

2.) Solar has a notoriously low return on energy produced on the energy invested into it's manufacture. What we don't want to see happen is a game of hide and seek - expending energy in production and then gaining only a marginal increase of energy produced during the life of the solar panel.

Secondly, there are the pollution costs associated with the production of the panels and associated infrastructure. Electronics is notoriously pollution intensive, lots of heavy metals and affluent. Both the pollution cost and the energy inputs need to be considered.

3.) There is the cost of having the generating capacity for baseline power production sitting idle when the sun shines. Germans will want electricity all the time and so they need to pay for the generating plant. The only savings here is the cost of fuel and depreciation arising from operating the plant. Basically we're looking at a duplication of generating capacity here. Buying two infrastructures, one for when it's sunny and one for when it's not.

4.) Battery manufacture involves mining (raping the land) refining (raping the atmosphere) manufacturing (energy and pollution intensive) plus transportation of heavy batteries to distributors, then wholesalers, then retailers and finally to consumers. Energy is needed for transportation. This embeds within the battery and needs to be considered over the lifetime of the battery. Secondly there is the opportunity cost of setting up a battery bank - the return on investment here is usually pretty low. This too needs to be considered.

 

[Statistikhengst]

UBS Time to join the solar EV storage revolution Renew Economy

Leading investment bank UBS says the payback time for unsubsidised investment in electric vehicles plus rooftop solar plus battery storage will be as low as 6-8 years by 2020 – triggering a massive revolution in the energy industry.

“It’s time to join the revolution,” UBS says in a note to clients, in what could be interpreted as a massive slap-down to those governments and corporates who believe that centralised fossil fuel generation will dominate for decades to come...

..By the end of the decade, it says, the combination of will deliver a pay-back time of between six to 8 years, as this graph below shows. It will fall to around 3 years by 2030. Right now, the payback is probably around 12 years,

This is the graph:

The UBS report is focused on Europe, where it says that Germany, Spain, and Italy will be leaders because of their high electricity and fuel costs. But it could equally apply to Australia, which has both high electricity and high fuel costs, and a lot more sun – so solar is much cheaper.

UBS forecasts that EVs and plug-in hybrid will account for around 10 per cent of the market in Europe by 2025...

...
“Our view is that the ‘we have done it like this for a century’ value chain in developed electricity markets will be turned upside down within the next 10-20 years, driven by solar and batteries.

“As a virtuous circle, lower battery cost will also spur EV sales, which should bring further economies of scale to batteries, also for stationary applications. Power is no longer something that is exclusively produced by huge, centralised units owned by large utilities.

“By 2025, everybody will be able to produce and store power. And it will be green and cost competitive, ie, not more expensive or even cheaper than buying power from utilities.

“It is also the most efficient way to produce power where it is consumed, because transmission losses will be minimised.

And by the way, we are talking about a Tipping-Point and payback rate for alternative energy WITHOUT SUBSIDIES:

Why EVs will make solar viable without subsidies Renew Economy

(it's all in the report).

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now, fossil-fuel dinosaurs out there can make the claim that petroleum products are used in the making of alternative energy devices and this is mostly true, but the amount needed is a mere fraction of what we are just burning to create energy every day. Plus, the new devices are lasting longer and longer and longer.

Wind turbines
Underwater turbines
Solar
And one day soon: fusion

The future is closer to our doorsteps than we realize.

A few problems.

1.) The payback period is decreased in jurisdictions with high fuel and energy costs. Fossil fuels are traded internationally with transparent pricing. The factor which makes fuel and energy in Germany expensive is the taxation scheme. I don't care about whether this is good or bad, it doesn't matter, what matters is that there is a differential between the taxed price and the untaxed price.

There have no been a few jurisdictions which have pushed for more Electric Vehicles and then suffered the "unexpected" gasoline tax shortfall to their road & highway budget.

The problem here is that Germany depends on the revenue stream coming from fuel and energy taxes. Every vehicle or household which disconnects from the fossil fuel infrastructure also disconnects from paying those taxes.

The tax revenue funds expenditures. Governments rarely reduce expenditures when faced with a revenue shortfall, instead they seek new sources of revenue. This is likely to happen in Germany, people will have a shorter payback time on their solar investment while simultaneously bearing the burden of higher taxes to make-up for the revenue shortfalls from solar adapters. Those hardest hit will be the non-solar adapters in that they're paying a share of the tax shortfall caused by solar adapters leaving the fossil fuel energy system. Who knows how this injustice will play out in the political realm. It may play out by isolating the solar adapters and sticking them with the bill for the taxes that they would have paid via energy and fuel usage, thus cutting out a good part of the payback incentive.

2.) Solar has a notoriously low return on energy produced on the energy invested into it's manufacture. What we don't want to see happen is a game of hide and seek - expending energy in production and then gaining only a marginal increase of energy produced during the life of the solar panel.

Secondly, there are the pollution costs associated with the production of the panels and associated infrastructure. Electronics is notoriously pollution intensive, lots of heavy metals and affluent. Both the pollution cost and the energy inputs need to be considered.

3.) There is the cost of having the generating capacity for baseline power production sitting idle when the sun shines. Germans will want electricity all the time and so they need to pay for the generating plant. The only savings here is the cost of fuel and depreciation arising from operating the plant. Basically we're looking at a duplication of generating capacity here. Buying two infrastructures, one for when it's sunny and one for when it's not.

4.) Battery manufacture involves mining (raping the land) refining (raping the atmosphere) manufacturing (energy and pollution intensive) plus transportation of heavy batteries to distributors, then wholesalers, then retailers and finally to consumers. Energy is needed for transportation. This embeds within the battery and needs to be considered over the lifetime of the battery. Secondly there is the opportunity cost of setting up a battery bank - the return on investment here is usually pretty low. This too needs to be considered.

1st bolded: already covered. The chart shows the tipping point WITHOUT subsidies, and the German tax system is doing just fine, thank you.

2nd bolded: how do you know?

3rd bolded: already addressed in my comments in the OP. And you think that boring for oil is not raping the land and burning fossil fuels is not raping the atmosphere, or what? Advances in technology, practically from week to week, are making the investment higher and higher. So, it's already being considered.

But your comments were thoughtful and thanks for your input.

 

[Rikurzhen]

UBS Time to join the solar EV storage revolution Renew Economy

Leading investment bank UBS says the payback time for unsubsidised investment in electric vehicles plus rooftop solar plus battery storage will be as low as 6-8 years by 2020 – triggering a massive revolution in the energy industry.

“It’s time to join the revolution,” UBS says in a note to clients, in what could be interpreted as a massive slap-down to those governments and corporates who believe that centralised fossil fuel generation will dominate for decades to come...

..By the end of the decade, it says, the combination of will deliver a pay-back time of between six to 8 years, as this graph below shows. It will fall to around 3 years by 2030. Right now, the payback is probably around 12 years,

This is the graph:

The UBS report is focused on Europe, where it says that Germany, Spain, and Italy will be leaders because of their high electricity and fuel costs. But it could equally apply to Australia, which has both high electricity and high fuel costs, and a lot more sun – so solar is much cheaper.

UBS forecasts that EVs and plug-in hybrid will account for around 10 per cent of the market in Europe by 2025...

...
“Our view is that the ‘we have done it like this for a century’ value chain in developed electricity markets will be turned upside down within the next 10-20 years, driven by solar and batteries.

“As a virtuous circle, lower battery cost will also spur EV sales, which should bring further economies of scale to batteries, also for stationary applications. Power is no longer something that is exclusively produced by huge, centralised units owned by large utilities.

“By 2025, everybody will be able to produce and store power. And it will be green and cost competitive, ie, not more expensive or even cheaper than buying power from utilities.

“It is also the most efficient way to produce power where it is consumed, because transmission losses will be minimised.

And by the way, we are talking about a Tipping-Point and payback rate for alternative energy WITHOUT SUBSIDIES:

Why EVs will make solar viable without subsidies Renew Economy

(it's all in the report).

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now, fossil-fuel dinosaurs out there can make the claim that petroleum products are used in the making of alternative energy devices and this is mostly true, but the amount needed is a mere fraction of what we are just burning to create energy every day. Plus, the new devices are lasting longer and longer and longer.

Wind turbines
Underwater turbines
Solar
And one day soon: fusion

The future is closer to our doorsteps than we realize.

A few problems.

1.) The payback period is decreased in jurisdictions with high fuel and energy costs. Fossil fuels are traded internationally with transparent pricing. The factor which makes fuel and energy in Germany expensive is the taxation scheme. I don't care about whether this is good or bad, it doesn't matter, what matters is that there is a differential between the taxed price and the untaxed price.

There have no been a few jurisdictions which have pushed for more Electric Vehicles and then suffered the "unexpected" gasoline tax shortfall to their road & highway budget.

The problem here is that Germany depends on the revenue stream coming from fuel and energy taxes. Every vehicle or household which disconnects from the fossil fuel infrastructure also disconnects from paying those taxes.

The tax revenue funds expenditures. Governments rarely reduce expenditures when faced with a revenue shortfall, instead they seek new sources of revenue. This is likely to happen in Germany, people will have a shorter payback time on their solar investment while simultaneously bearing the burden of higher taxes to make-up for the revenue shortfalls from solar adapters. Those hardest hit will be the non-solar adapters in that they're paying a share of the tax shortfall caused by solar adapters leaving the fossil fuel energy system. Who knows how this injustice will play out in the political realm. It may play out by isolating the solar adapters and sticking them with the bill for the taxes that they would have paid via energy and fuel usage, thus cutting out a good part of the payback incentive.

2.) Solar has a notoriously low return on energy produced on the energy invested into it's manufacture. What we don't want to see happen is a game of hide and seek - expending energy in production and then gaining only a marginal increase of energy produced during the life of the solar panel.

Secondly, there are the pollution costs associated with the production of the panels and associated infrastructure. Electronics is notoriously pollution intensive, lots of heavy metals and affluent. Both the pollution cost and the energy inputs need to be considered.

3.) There is the cost of having the generating capacity for baseline power production sitting idle when the sun shines. Germans will want electricity all the time and so they need to pay for the generating plant. The only savings here is the cost of fuel and depreciation arising from operating the plant. Basically we're looking at a duplication of generating capacity here. Buying two infrastructures, one for when it's sunny and one for when it's not.

4.) Battery manufacture involves mining (raping the land) refining (raping the atmosphere) manufacturing (energy and pollution intensive) plus transportation of heavy batteries to distributors, then wholesalers, then retailers and finally to consumers. Energy is needed for transportation. This embeds within the battery and needs to be considered over the lifetime of the battery. Secondly there is the opportunity cost of setting up a battery bank - the return on investment here is usually pretty low. This too needs to be considered.

1st bolded: already covered. The chart shows the tipping point WITHOUT subsidies, and the German tax system is doing just fine, thank you.

2nd bolded: how do you know?

3rd bolded: already addressed in my comments in the OP. And you think that boring for oil is not raping the land and burning fossil fuels is not raping the atmosphere, or what? Advances in technology, practically from week to week, are making the investment higher and higher. So, it's already being considered.

But your comments were thoughtful and thanks for your input.

I didn't say boo about subsidies. I'm talking about foregone tax revenue as solar adopters stop paying fuel taxes and the taxes embedded in their utility bills. The more people Germany shifts into solar the fewer energy taxpayers it can collect from. To illustrate the point take it to extremes - every car in Germany become an EV. Now there is zero tax revenue from fuel sales.

Or think of it this way - tobacco taxes. They fund lots of state government. The more successful the state is in curbing smoking, then less it collects in tobacco taxes. The spending never falls so now new taxes have to be created on something else or taxes have to be raised elsewhere in order to produce more tax revenue.

Because this same dynamic plays out everywhere. Generating capacity needs to be available to deal with generating shortfalls from wind and solar. Without standby capacity you have brownouts and blackouts.

I never really see any analysis on the total environmental cost of batteries versus the total environmental cost of fossil fuels. Just because analysts don't consider the total cost doesn't mean that the environment and the economy are shielded from the effects.

 

[Old Rocks]

At this point that preferred battery material is lithium. Had you bothered to look up have lithium is 'mined', you would have seen that it is perhaps the cleanest and most pollution free mining of any industrial material that we use.

Lithium Mining Rodinia Lithium

The traditional hard-rock mining of pegmatites containing the lithium bearing silicate spudomene is time, energy and cost intensive. Lithium is the thirty-third most frequently occurring mineral so it is not exactly scare, but concentrations are generally too low, and extraction too difficult and costly to be viable. The major trend in the lithium industry has been a transition from hard rock mining-based sources of lithium to brine-based ones. The cost-effectiveness of brine operations forced even large producers in China and Russia to develop their own brine sources or buy raw materials from brine producers.

The economics of obtaining lithium carbonate from brine are so favorable that most hard rock production has been priced out of the market. Lithium brines are currently the only lithium source that can support mining without significant other credits from tantalum, niobium, tin etc., (low manganese content within Nevada’s Clayton Valley brines significantly reduces recovery costs unlike Chile’s high manganese content brine deposits). Lithium brine resources are now the preferred method of lithium recovery.

The only lithium producing plant in North America is located in Clayton Valley, Nevada, USA. The facility was opened in 1967 and has been producing lithium carbonate from brines ever since.

Recovering lithium from brines is not considered hard rock mining, it is classified the same as placer and permitting is much easier and quicker.

Lithium recovery from brines could lead to a huge carbon footprint reduction because of a nearly zero-waste mining method. Once the lithium is recovered the chemicals used can be recycled, also the by-products include saleable compounds such as potash and/or boron.