Three Expert Scenarios For COVID19 Pandemic in the USA

JimBowie1958

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It seems the 'Better case' is the most likely given the effort by the Trump administration to avoid a peak demand the US health care network cannot handle.
I read somewhere that the COVID19 virus does not last as long on surfaces or in the air in warmer temperatures, but I did not see any hard numbers, probably because no definitive study has detyermined this.
Also, Trumps herculean efforts are going to prevent millions of Americans dying.

WORST CASE
In a worst-case scenario, without serious mitigation efforts, hospital beds in the U.S. could be full by April and 2.2 million Americans could die of the virus – not to mention those who would die of other ailments because they couldn’t get medical care – a study from the Imperial College London concluded, according to The Atlantic.

To avoid this bleak scenario, several things must happen. Firstly, Americans shouldn’t expect life to be back to normal by Easter. Those infected with the virus are often contagious while they’re asymptomatic and the incubation period can last up to two weeks. Since many states only instituted stay-at-home orders just over a week ago, cases should be expected to increase over the next couple of weeks and data from any flattening of the curve won't be visible for weeks yet.

The country also virtually has no way of getting back to any sense of normalcy over the next few weeks unless the slow-rolled testing is massively increased. This week, California Gov. Gavin Newsom said more than 67,000 have been tested in the state, but it’s still not close to enough to get a sense of when the infection rate will slow.

BETTER CASE

There’s a chance the virus could become less contagious in the summer like the flu in the Northern Hemisphere, The Atlantic reported. Of course, the Southern Hemisphere would be entering winter and could see the opposite trend.

Outdoor activities with a small number of people would likely be fine and bars and restaurants might reopen, Andrew Noymer, a public-health professor at the University of California at Irvine, told The Atlantic. But probably “no Lollapalooza, no Major League Baseball, no crowded beaches.”

If that’s the case, life could return to normal through the summer, but social distancing would have to continue in the fall if the virus acts like the flu, which hits harder when the leaves fall.

BEST CASE

It’s possible the bulk of social distancing could be over within a month or two if the virus turns out to be “not be a serious pathogen, suddenly,” said William Hanage, an epidemiology professor at the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, according to the Atlantic, but experts say this scenario is unlikely.

"Right now if everybody complies [with social distancing] measures, we're looking at a two-month window, three months at a minimum," Lilian Alessa of the University of Idaho, told Live Science.

In a grim scenario, easing social distancing too soon could kill a large number of people quickly and lead to immunity for the rest who survive the virus, slowing it within a few months.
 

Angelo

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This sucks for the Class of 2020 . :(

Also my 40 year class reunion will probably be cancelled in Ohio.
 
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JimBowie1958

JimBowie1958

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So what's the plan for 2021 Covid-20, 2022 Covid-21 .....?

~S~
Well, hopefully this anti-COVID19 network will still be in place and we can have vaccines ready as well as a quick response with people who already know the process..
 

sparky

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So what's the plan for 2021 Covid-20, 2022 Covid-21 .....?

~S~
Well, hopefully this anti-COVID19 network will still be in place and we can have vaccines ready as well as a quick response with people who already know the process..
in a perfect world i really want to agree with you Jim

but my sense is the economy ,or what will be left of it, may be worse than the virus

~S~
 

LoneLaugher

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It seems the 'Better case' is the most likely given the effort by the Trump administration to avoid a peak demand the US health care network cannot handle.
I read somewhere that the COVID19 virus does not last as long on surfaces or in the air in warmer temperatures, but I did not see any hard numbers, probably because no definitive study has detyermined this.
Also, Trumps herculean efforts are going to prevent millions of Americans dying.

WORST CASE
In a worst-case scenario, without serious mitigation efforts, hospital beds in the U.S. could be full by April and 2.2 million Americans could die of the virus – not to mention those who would die of other ailments because they couldn’t get medical care – a study from the Imperial College London concluded, according to The Atlantic.

To avoid this bleak scenario, several things must happen. Firstly, Americans shouldn’t expect life to be back to normal by Easter. Those infected with the virus are often contagious while they’re asymptomatic and the incubation period can last up to two weeks. Since many states only instituted stay-at-home orders just over a week ago, cases should be expected to increase over the next couple of weeks and data from any flattening of the curve won't be visible for weeks yet.

The country also virtually has no way of getting back to any sense of normalcy over the next few weeks unless the slow-rolled testing is massively increased. This week, California Gov. Gavin Newsom said more than 67,000 have been tested in the state, but it’s still not close to enough to get a sense of when the infection rate will slow.

BETTER CASE

There’s a chance the virus could become less contagious in the summer like the flu in the Northern Hemisphere, The Atlantic reported. Of course, the Southern Hemisphere would be entering winter and could see the opposite trend.

Outdoor activities with a small number of people would likely be fine and bars and restaurants might reopen, Andrew Noymer, a public-health professor at the University of California at Irvine, told The Atlantic. But probably “no Lollapalooza, no Major League Baseball, no crowded beaches.”

If that’s the case, life could return to normal through the summer, but social distancing would have to continue in the fall if the virus acts like the flu, which hits harder when the leaves fall.

BEST CASE

It’s possible the bulk of social distancing could be over within a month or two if the virus turns out to be “not be a serious pathogen, suddenly,” said William Hanage, an epidemiology professor at the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, according to the Atlantic, but experts say this scenario is unlikely.

"Right now if everybody complies [with social distancing] measures, we're looking at a two-month window, three months at a minimum," Lilian Alessa of the University of Idaho, told Live Science.

In a grim scenario, easing social distancing too soon could kill a large number of people quickly and lead to immunity for the rest who survive the virus, slowing it within a few months.
Trump gets credit for the “better” scenario because his administration did things to prevent peak demand?

Did you actually say that?
 

Olde Europe

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Trump gets credit for the “better” scenario because his administration did things to prevent peak demand?

Did you actually say that?
Yep, the illiterate credited "Trumps herculean efforts" - you know, bringing about miracles is hard, but every day Trump does things nobody even thought possible. Or so he says...
 

Manonthestreet

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An amateurs research into it. Person is published novelist Comments also have some interesting info such as Americans might have been eating half their meals in restaurants and with them closed you get pillaged grocers. Newspapers are so focused on the political angle of everything they dont even see stuff like this.

I next looked at all-cause mortality. Perhaps COVID-19 deaths hadn’t been captured in the pneumonia data. But surely something this virulent would show somewhere. I was again, surprised.

We see here that all-cause mortality ran on the high side of normal until it started to drop at the beginning of 2020, and recently dropped significantly. Again, no indication of this virus killing people beyond seasonal norms.
 

LoneLaugher

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An amateurs research into it. Person is published novelist Comments also have some interesting info such as Americans might have been eating half their meals in restaurants and with them closed you get pillaged grocers. Newspapers are so focused on the political angle of everything they dont even see stuff like this.

I next looked at all-cause mortality. Perhaps COVID-19 deaths hadn’t been captured in the pneumonia data. But surely something this virulent would show somewhere. I was again, surprised.

We see here that all-cause mortality ran on the high side of normal until it started to drop at the beginning of 2020, and recently dropped significantly. Again, no indication of this virus killing people beyond seasonal norms.
Thankfully, nobody Is acting based on what you have to say.

Just fucking ridiculous.
 

Manonthestreet

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An amateurs research into it. Person is published novelist Comments also have some interesting info such as Americans might have been eating half their meals in restaurants and with them closed you get pillaged grocers. Newspapers are so focused on the political angle of everything they dont even see stuff like this.

I next looked at all-cause mortality. Perhaps COVID-19 deaths hadn’t been captured in the pneumonia data. But surely something this virulent would show somewhere. I was again, surprised.

We see here that all-cause mortality ran on the high side of normal until it started to drop at the beginning of 2020, and recently dropped significantly. Again, no indication of this virus killing people beyond seasonal norms.
Thankfully, nobody Is acting based on what you have to say.

Just fucking ridiculous.
I didnt say it idiot
 

Manonthestreet

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According to the world death clock, 56,000,000 people die every year around the world. That’s about 4,666,666 per month. That means that, in an average year, we should expect 13,999,998 deaths around the world by the end of March. Can you imagine if the media reported every death in breathless tones, along with buckets of blame?

According to the world death clock, at the end of the day on March 27, a total of 13,382,500 people have died around the world, which is right where one would expect the number to be in any event. Of that 13,382,500, as of now, 25,035 – or 0.2% — died from coronavirus. I’m not the greatest math literate myself, but I don’t think 0.2% is an Armageddon-like plague. Coronavirus panic makes no sense so I've got a few theories - Bookworm Room
 

Crepitus

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It seems the 'Better case' is the most likely given the effort by the Trump administration to avoid a peak demand the US health care network cannot handle.
I read somewhere that the COVID19 virus does not last as long on surfaces or in the air in warmer temperatures, but I did not see any hard numbers, probably because no definitive study has detyermined this.
Also, Trumps herculean efforts are going to prevent millions of Americans dying.

WORST CASE
In a worst-case scenario, without serious mitigation efforts, hospital beds in the U.S. could be full by April and 2.2 million Americans could die of the virus – not to mention those who would die of other ailments because they couldn’t get medical care – a study from the Imperial College London concluded, according to The Atlantic.

To avoid this bleak scenario, several things must happen. Firstly, Americans shouldn’t expect life to be back to normal by Easter. Those infected with the virus are often contagious while they’re asymptomatic and the incubation period can last up to two weeks. Since many states only instituted stay-at-home orders just over a week ago, cases should be expected to increase over the next couple of weeks and data from any flattening of the curve won't be visible for weeks yet.

The country also virtually has no way of getting back to any sense of normalcy over the next few weeks unless the slow-rolled testing is massively increased. This week, California Gov. Gavin Newsom said more than 67,000 have been tested in the state, but it’s still not close to enough to get a sense of when the infection rate will slow.

BETTER CASE

There’s a chance the virus could become less contagious in the summer like the flu in the Northern Hemisphere, The Atlantic reported. Of course, the Southern Hemisphere would be entering winter and could see the opposite trend.

Outdoor activities with a small number of people would likely be fine and bars and restaurants might reopen, Andrew Noymer, a public-health professor at the University of California at Irvine, told The Atlantic. But probably “no Lollapalooza, no Major League Baseball, no crowded beaches.”

If that’s the case, life could return to normal through the summer, but social distancing would have to continue in the fall if the virus acts like the flu, which hits harder when the leaves fall.

BEST CASE

It’s possible the bulk of social distancing could be over within a month or two if the virus turns out to be “not be a serious pathogen, suddenly,” said William Hanage, an epidemiology professor at the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, according to the Atlantic, but experts say this scenario is unlikely.

"Right now if everybody complies [with social distancing] measures, we're looking at a two-month window, three months at a minimum," Lilian Alessa of the University of Idaho, told Live Science.

In a grim scenario, easing social distancing too soon could kill a large number of people quickly and lead to immunity for the rest who survive the virus, slowing it within a few months.
What "Herculean efforts" do you think tRump has made?

Other than attempting to verbally minimize the threat and blaming others for the inept response I mean.
 

Crepitus

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According to the world death clock, 56,000,000 people die every year around the world. That’s about 4,666,666 per month. That means that, in an average year, we should expect 13,999,998 deaths around the world by the end of March. Can you imagine if the media reported every death in breathless tones, along with buckets of blame?

According to the world death clock, at the end of the day on March 27, a total of 13,382,500 people have died around the world, which is right where one would expect the number to be in any event. Of that 13,382,500, as of now, 25,035 – or 0.2% — died from coronavirus. I’m not the greatest math literate myself, but I don’t think 0.2% is an Armageddon-like plague. Coronavirus panic makes no sense so I've got a few theories - Bookworm Room
When they talk about coronavirus deaths they mean over and above the average.
 

Manonthestreet

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According to the world death clock, 56,000,000 people die every year around the world. That’s about 4,666,666 per month. That means that, in an average year, we should expect 13,999,998 deaths around the world by the end of March. Can you imagine if the media reported every death in breathless tones, along with buckets of blame?

According to the world death clock, at the end of the day on March 27, a total of 13,382,500 people have died around the world, which is right where one would expect the number to be in any event. Of that 13,382,500, as of now, 25,035 – or 0.2% — died from coronavirus. I’m not the greatest math literate myself, but I don’t think 0.2% is an Armageddon-like plague. Coronavirus panic makes no sense so I've got a few theories - Bookworm Room
When they talk about coronavirus deaths they mean over and above the average.
right now we are below avg
 

LoneLaugher

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And another.....thing may alrdy have peaked
According to the world death clock, 56,000,000 people die every year around the world. That’s about 4,666,666 per month. That means that, in an average year, we should expect 13,999,998 deaths around the world by the end of March. Can you imagine if the media reported every death in breathless tones, along with buckets of blame?

According to the world death clock, at the end of the day on March 27, a total of 13,382,500 people have died around the world, which is right where one would expect the number to be in any event. Of that 13,382,500, as of now, 25,035 – or 0.2% — died from coronavirus. I’m not the greatest math literate myself, but I don’t think 0.2% is an Armageddon-like plague. Coronavirus panic makes no sense so I've got a few theories - Bookworm Room
Fucking stupid.
 

Crepitus

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According to the world death clock, 56,000,000 people die every year around the world. That’s about 4,666,666 per month. That means that, in an average year, we should expect 13,999,998 deaths around the world by the end of March. Can you imagine if the media reported every death in breathless tones, along with buckets of blame?

According to the world death clock, at the end of the day on March 27, a total of 13,382,500 people have died around the world, which is right where one would expect the number to be in any event. Of that 13,382,500, as of now, 25,035 – or 0.2% — died from coronavirus. I’m not the greatest math literate myself, but I don’t think 0.2% is an Armageddon-like plague. Coronavirus panic makes no sense so I've got a few theories - Bookworm Room
When they talk about coronavirus deaths they mean over and above the average.
right now we are below avg
Link?

Or did you just pull that outta yer ass?
 

MindWars

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So what's the plan for 2021 Covid-20, 2022 Covid-21 .....?

~S~
The same panic will be given so they can control the populationn again. This is 911 invisible. Remember all the rights that were lost after that day.
 

Manonthestreet

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And another.....thing may alrdy have peaked
I really doubt it has peaked in terms of new cases.

We are still expanding our testing, so we will see continued growth in the daily number of new cases.
PRoblem is we were operating in the dark up until last cpl weeks. It was here long time ago before Trump shut down flights to China. Now that serious testing is happening its OMG but you have no benchmark from the beginning.
 

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