The real death rate of COVID-19 in the U.S. may be 140 times smaller than what is being reported

[HappyJoy]

Neat.

Danfromsquirrelhill has an opinion and a Wordpress page.

Unlike TDS morons, he can do simple math.

He picked a single country (Iceland) to compare to the US population to determine the COVID-19 mortality rate. Why Iceland? Why not Italy?

Because Iceland is doing studies via testing on infected/non-infected population counts.

Great. How has that early and vast testing benefited Iceland in preventing the spread? You know, the exact opposite of what we did. We kind of followed the Italian head up the ass model in fighting this disease.

Iceland is a far smaller country, and probably doesn't have the FDA/CDC red tape we have regarding approval of medical devices and treatments.

And I doubt they have a huge foreign tourist trade, like we do....1.2 billion foreign tourists a year! It was inevitable for it to be spread throughout the United States....from the grand canyon, san francisco golden gate bridge to the beaches in Miami and Disney world

Plus it was winter, Iceland likely has no tourists during winter.....

I was there in early October 2018, it was considering the end of peak season as soon many of the roads would not be passable.

Tourism in New York isn't exactly thriving in January either.

Yeah, totally nothing going on in the way of tourism and commerce during January in New York. It's practically a ghost town.

 

[bripat9643]

Neat.

Danfromsquirrelhill has an opinion and a Wordpress page.

Dispute the logic.

Catch up

You have no argument. Unless we test everyone, or a legitimate test sample, we CANNOT know the mortality rate

I'm not sure what your argument is in the context of this thread.

No surprise there.

 

[bripat9643]

Neat.

Danfromsquirrelhill has an opinion and a Wordpress page.

Unlike TDS morons, he can do simple math.

He picked a single country (Iceland) to compare to the US population to determine the COVID-19 mortality rate. Why Iceland? Why not Italy?

Because Iceland is doing studies via testing on infected/non-infected population counts.

Great. How has that early and vast testing benefited Iceland in preventing the spread? You know, the exact opposite of what we did. We kind of followed the Italian head up the ass model in fighting this disease.

Iceland is a far smaller country, and probably doesn't have the FDA/CDC red tape we have regarding approval of medical devices and treatments.

And I doubt they have a huge foreign tourist trade, like we do....1.2 billion foreign tourists a year! It was inevitable for it to be spread throughout the United States....from the grand canyon, san francisco golden gate bridge to the beaches in Miami and Disney world

Plus it was winter, Iceland likely has no tourists during winter.....

I was there in early October 2018, it was considering the end of peak season as soon many of the roads would not be passable.

Tourism in New York isn't exactly thriving in January either.

Yeah, totally nothing going on in the way of tourism and commerce during January in New York. It's practically a ghost town.

There is always commerce going on in every city, no matter what the season. I doubt many people want to go sightseeing in New York in the middle of winter.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

This should drive the hysteria mongers crazy. How are they going to generate hysteria about a disease that is less serious than the flu?

https://danfromsquirrelhill.wordpress.com/2020/03/30/the-real-denominator/​

​

It’s possible that the number of people in the U.S. who are infected with COVID-19 is much bigger than the number that is being currently reported, but many of those people haven’t gotten substantially sick, and so haven’t gotten tested.​

​

The death rate is calculated by dividing the number of people who die by the number who get infected.​

​

But while we do have accurate information about the numerator, we really have no idea what the denominator is. It’s possible that the real denominator is magnitudes bigger than what is being reported, because most infected people have either no symptoms or minor symptoms, and thus, don’t get tested. If this is indeed the case, then it’s possible that the real death rate is far, far lower than the one that is being reported.​

​

As of this writing (early March 30, 2020), in the U.S., 142,735 people have tested positive for COVID-19, and of those, 2,489 have died from it. (I got those numbers from this link, which is continuously being updated.)​

​

Based on these numbers, the fatality rate in the U.S. is 1.744%​

​

Meanwhile, Iceland tested a large segment of its population, including people with no symptoms, and found that 6.3% of them have COVID-19.​

​

The U.S. has 328 million people. If we extrapolate Iceland’s figure of 6.3% to the U.S., it would suggest that more than 20 million people in the U.S. have COVID-19. (I realize that extrapolating Iceland’s test results to the U.S. is not the ideal way to determine the rate of infection in the U.S. But given the absence of this particular type of widespread testing in the U.S., it’s probably the most accurate guess that we can make at this point in time. Hopefully, such widespread testing will be done in the U.S., and we will then have a more accurate number.)​

​

So for the U.S., the real denominator may be 140 times bigger than the one that is being reported.​

​

Which, if true, would indicate that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is more than two magnitudes smaller than what is being reported.​

​

And, if true, would mean that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is 0.01246%​

​

you realize that the same issue is there for everything we claim a death rate on? We claim a death rate from the Flu but nobody knows how many were sick with it and did not get an official test...yet you people never talk about how those numbers are wrong...why is that?

Yawn

 

[EvilCat Breath]

How many dead from other causes? To the media everyone who dies has died from the virus. That can't be true and we are not told anything close to the truth.

 

[buckeye]

Neat.

Danfromsquirrelhill has an opinion and a Wordpress page.

Unlike TDS morons, he can do simple math.

He picked a single country (Iceland) to compare to the US population to determine the COVID-19 mortality rate. Why Iceland? Why not Italy?

Because Iceland is doing studies via testing on infected/non-infected population counts.

Great. How has that early and vast testing benefited Iceland in preventing the spread? You know, the exact opposite of what we did. We kind of followed the Italian head up the ass model in fighting this disease.

I don't see anyone suggesting that early and vast testing prevented a spread.

But it provides data, which we have very, very little of in calculation of death rates or infection rates.

You're missing the point.

 

[martybegan]

Neat.

Danfromsquirrelhill has an opinion and a Wordpress page.

Unlike TDS morons, he can do simple math.

He picked a single country (Iceland) to compare to the US population to determine the COVID-19 mortality rate. Why Iceland? Why not Italy?

Because Iceland is doing studies via testing on infected/non-infected population counts.

Great. How has that early and vast testing benefited Iceland in preventing the spread? You know, the exact opposite of what we did. We kind of followed the Italian head up the ass model in fighting this disease.

Iceland is a far smaller country, and probably doesn't have the FDA/CDC red tape we have regarding approval of medical devices and treatments.

Some would call Iceland's healthcare system socialist too, but that would be inconvenient right now, wouldn't it?

Iceland for the most part is a rural country, even their biggest city is rather small. Even though they got hit pretty hard (probably due to heavy importation of goods and tourism) their mortality rate is far less than most other countries, including us. We recently surpassed them on the number of dead per capita. Iceland has taken social distancing more seriously as well as using testing to track the virus spread. These are things we are lacking in. The only benefit to comparing Iceland to us is to paint an unfounded and most likely false narrative to protect Dear Leader's reputation.

The question is are they basing their mortality rate on deaths/confirmed cases or deaths/extrapolated cases. The 2nd will result in a smaller mortality rate if 100% testing has not occurred in the population.

You are the one trying to make this political, I am dealing with the statistics being used.

 

[HappyJoy]

Neat.

Danfromsquirrelhill has an opinion and a Wordpress page.

Unlike TDS morons, he can do simple math.

He picked a single country (Iceland) to compare to the US population to determine the COVID-19 mortality rate. Why Iceland? Why not Italy?

Because Iceland is doing studies via testing on infected/non-infected population counts.

Great. How has that early and vast testing benefited Iceland in preventing the spread? You know, the exact opposite of what we did. We kind of followed the Italian head up the ass model in fighting this disease.

Iceland is a far smaller country, and probably doesn't have the FDA/CDC red tape we have regarding approval of medical devices and treatments.

And I doubt they have a huge foreign tourist trade, like we do....1.2 billion foreign tourists a year! It was inevitable for it to be spread throughout the United States....from the grand canyon, san francisco golden gate bridge to the beaches in Miami and Disney world

Plus it was winter, Iceland likely has no tourists during winter.....

I was there in early October 2018, it was considering the end of peak season as soon many of the roads would not be passable.

Tourism in New York isn't exactly thriving in January either.

Yeah, totally nothing going on in the way of tourism and commerce during January in New York. It's practically a ghost town.

There is always commerce going on in every city, no matter what the season. I doubt many people want to go sightseeing in New York in the middle of winter.

TImes Square, the most bullshitty tourist thing in New York gets about 300,000 visitors a day in January.

Pedestrian Counts | Times Square NYC

Times Square Monthly Pedestrian Count Reports are located at the bottom of the page. It should be no surprise that Times Square typically has some of the heaviest foot traffic in all of New York City. However, like the rest of the City, Times Square saw record lows in foot traffic in 2020 due to...

www.timessquarenyc.org

That's not all tourists just the ones that went to that location. Then you have thousands of people that fly in everyday for business.

 

[martybegan]

Neat.

Danfromsquirrelhill has an opinion and a Wordpress page.

Unlike TDS morons, he can do simple math.

He picked a single country (Iceland) to compare to the US population to determine the COVID-19 mortality rate. Why Iceland? Why not Italy?

Because Iceland is doing studies via testing on infected/non-infected population counts.

Great. How has that early and vast testing benefited Iceland in preventing the spread? You know, the exact opposite of what we did. We kind of followed the Italian head up the ass model in fighting this disease.

Iceland is a far smaller country, and probably doesn't have the FDA/CDC red tape we have regarding approval of medical devices and treatments.

And I doubt they have a huge foreign tourist trade, like we do....1.2 billion foreign tourists a year! It was inevitable for it to be spread throughout the United States....from the grand canyon, san francisco golden gate bridge to the beaches in Miami and Disney world, Mardi Gra..... from sea to shining sea.....

Plus it was winter, Iceland likely has no tourists during winter.....

Iceland has a surprisingly large tourist industry, more so during the summer, but it does have it's charms. and by charms I mean very attractive women.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Neat.

Danfromsquirrelhill has an opinion and a Wordpress page.

Unlike TDS morons, he can do simple math.

He picked a single country (Iceland) to compare to the US population to determine the COVID-19 mortality rate. Why Iceland? Why not Italy?

Because Iceland is doing studies via testing on infected/non-infected population counts.

Great. How has that early and vast testing benefited Iceland in preventing the spread? You know, the exact opposite of what we did. We kind of followed the Italian head up the ass model in fighting this disease.

Iceland is a far smaller country, and probably doesn't have the FDA/CDC red tape we have regarding approval of medical devices and treatments.

And I doubt they have a huge foreign tourist trade, like we do....1.2 billion foreign tourists a year! It was inevitable for it to be spread throughout the United States....from the grand canyon, san francisco golden gate bridge to the beaches in Miami and Disney world

Plus it was winter, Iceland likely has no tourists during winter.....

I was there in early October 2018, it was considering the end of peak season as soon many of the roads would not be passable.

Tourism in New York isn't exactly thriving in January either.

New York City alone has 23 times the population of the entire nation of Iceland

 

[Harpy Eagle]

I don't see anyone suggesting that early and vast testing prevented a spread.

Of course early and vast testing helps to slow the spread. You can ID and isolate people before they spread it to other people.

 

[berg80]

I don't see anyone suggesting that early and vast testing prevented a spread.

Without Mass Testing, the Coronavirus Pandemic Will Keep Spreading

Without Mass Testing, the Coronavirus Pandemic Will Keep Spreading

Countries such as South Korea that test thousands of people per day have slowed the outbreak. Other nations must adopt Seoul’s model before it’s too…

foreignpolicy.com

 

[martybegan]

I don't see anyone suggesting that early and vast testing prevented a spread.

Of course early and vast testing helps to slow the spread. You can ID and isolate people before they spread it to other people.

Maybe, maybe not. It is still not known if asymptomatic people shed virus, or shed it at a rate that is similar to those symptomatic (even early symptoms). Also, you have to do the RIGHT test, a test showing active viral load. An Antibody test would isolate those already over their infection along with those who are potentially still able to get sick.

 

[Care4all]

Neat.

Danfromsquirrelhill has an opinion and a Wordpress page.

Unlike TDS morons, he can do simple math.

He picked a single country (Iceland) to compare to the US population to determine the COVID-19 mortality rate. Why Iceland? Why not Italy?

Because Iceland is doing studies via testing on infected/non-infected population counts.

Great. How has that early and vast testing benefited Iceland in preventing the spread? You know, the exact opposite of what we did. We kind of followed the Italian head up the ass model in fighting this disease.

Iceland is a far smaller country, and probably doesn't have the FDA/CDC red tape we have regarding approval of medical devices and treatments.

And I doubt they have a huge foreign tourist trade, like we do....1.2 billion foreign tourists a year! It was inevitable for it to be spread throughout the United States....from the grand canyon, san francisco golden gate bridge to the beaches in Miami and Disney world, Mardi Gra..... from sea to shining sea.....

Plus it was winter, Iceland likely has no tourists during winter.....

Iceland has a surprisingly large tourist industry, more so during the summer, but it does have it's charms. and by charms I mean very attractive women.

FYI
I really wanted to give you a FUNNY, because that was funny, but I think people are still using this new FUNNY as a NeG REP, AND NOT USING the new DISLIKE as the neg rep....? and there was no funny and agree.... so ya got a LIKE.....!

THEY DO have a winter tourism trade, I looked it up after I posted to you..... it's last month and this month, for viewing the northern lights, Feb and March..... if they didn't cancel it or cancel incoming flights?

If they had the northern lights tourism, then they may need to do another round of testing to see the spread rate, starting again in two weeks....?

 

[Rigby5]

Since all that matters is the number of total deaths, I do not see at all how it matters if more people have gotten COVID-19 and a lower % have fatal results?

It is likely true. But it still makes sense to do precautions in order to reduce transmission speed.

 

[berg80]

Trump Claimed Virus Would ‘Go Away.’ Now He Says 100K Deaths Would Be ‘Very Good Job.’

Trump On COVID-19 Deaths

President Trump has set a new benchmark for the number of coronavirus deaths that would constitute a job well done, and the figures are staggering.

talkingpointsmemo.com

President Trump has set a new benchmark for the number of coronavirus deaths that would constitute a job well done, and the figures are staggering.

On Sunday, Trump acknowledged for the first time during a White House coronavirus task force briefing that deaths from COVID-19 in the U.S. could hit 100,000 or more, which he said is “a horrible number.” The President then added that if the toll remained within that range “we all together have done a very good job.”

Trump officially backed off his Easter deadline to get the country back to work, as he and his administration have more fully acknowledged that a worst-case scenario could see more than 2 million deaths in the United States. Trump had previously said that the economic impact could produce more “death” than even the virus. And Trump’s new pronouncements are a world apart from his early statements about the coronavirus, when he predicted earlier this month the virus would simply “go away.”
..............................................................................................................................
The President continued to downplay the threat posed by the COVID-19 epidemic Tuesday, falsely saying that testing for the disease was available for all who needed it and asserting that the novel coronavirus would “go away” with time.

“It will go away,” Trump told reporters of the virus, after a meeting with congressional Republicans Tuesday. “Just stay calm, it will go away.”

Trump Offers Another Baselessly Cheery Take On COVID-19 Epidemic

The President continued to downplay the threat posed by the COVID-19 epidemic Tuesday, falsely saying that testing for the disease was available for all who needed it and asserting that the novel…

talkingpointsmemo.com

 

[BrokeLoser]

This should drive the hysteria mongers crazy. How are they going to generate hysteria about a disease that is less serious than the flu?

https://danfromsquirrelhill.wordpress.com/2020/03/30/the-real-denominator/​

​

It’s possible that the number of people in the U.S. who are infected with COVID-19 is much bigger than the number that is being currently reported, but many of those people haven’t gotten substantially sick, and so haven’t gotten tested.​

​

The death rate is calculated by dividing the number of people who die by the number who get infected.​

​

But while we do have accurate information about the numerator, we really have no idea what the denominator is. It’s possible that the real denominator is magnitudes bigger than what is being reported, because most infected people have either no symptoms or minor symptoms, and thus, don’t get tested. If this is indeed the case, then it’s possible that the real death rate is far, far lower than the one that is being reported.​

​

As of this writing (early March 30, 2020), in the U.S., 142,735 people have tested positive for COVID-19, and of those, 2,489 have died from it. (I got those numbers from this link, which is continuously being updated.)​

​

Based on these numbers, the fatality rate in the U.S. is 1.744%​

​

Meanwhile, Iceland tested a large segment of its population, including people with no symptoms, and found that 6.3% of them have COVID-19.​

​

The U.S. has 328 million people. If we extrapolate Iceland’s figure of 6.3% to the U.S., it would suggest that more than 20 million people in the U.S. have COVID-19. (I realize that extrapolating Iceland’s test results to the U.S. is not the ideal way to determine the rate of infection in the U.S. But given the absence of this particular type of widespread testing in the U.S., it’s probably the most accurate guess that we can make at this point in time. Hopefully, such widespread testing will be done in the U.S., and we will then have a more accurate number.)​

​

So for the U.S., the real denominator may be 140 times bigger than the one that is being reported.​

​

Which, if true, would indicate that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is more than two magnitudes smaller than what is being reported.​

​

And, if true, would mean that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is 0.01246%​

​

Oh boy...this is terrible news for the severely LefTarded. They were holding high hopes for millions of deaths in exchange for Trump losing the election.

 

[Osiris-ODS]

Neat.

Danfromsquirrelhill has an opinion and a Wordpress page.

Cool. Does it carry more weight if it's coming from epidemiology experts including Dr. Fauci, and published in the New England Journal of Medicine?

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

A fatality rate like that of "a severe influenza... considerably less than 1%" -- Dr. Fauci's words, not Danfromsquirrelhill's

 

[bendog]

Neat.

Danfromsquirrelhill has an opinion and a Wordpress page.

Cool. Does it carry more weight if it's coming from epidemiology experts including Dr. Fauci, and published in the New England Journal of Medicine?

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

A fatality rate like that of "a severe influenza... considerably less than 1%" -- Dr. Fauci's words, not Danfromsquirrelhill's

so, why'd he go to 100,000K dead in best case?

 

[WEATHER53]

We started asking for hard numbers three weeks ago and they finally trickled a few out
Part of the issue it’s hard to establish a basis when, for example the non infecteds are not counted or the total tallies are indexed to differing basis.
Some of that is just the nature of it and some rather convenient
So the USA is closed down over the “potential worst case scenario” which is not the mentally fit wY to do things. It is satisfying to the emotion of fright but not the mentality of fact