schmidlap
Platinum Member
- Oct 30, 2020
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Poelitics, A Horror Story for Republicans
Politics exhibits a compensatory property, a swing in one direction augers a swing in the other.
When a pendulum is displaced sideways from its resting, equilibrium position, it is subject to a restorative force due to gravity that will accelerate it back toward the equilibrium position.
Unlike the precise, predictable properties of the pendulum (the eternal return), an equilibrium in politics is continually redefined by progress over time - manumission, women's suffrage, child labor laws, workplace safety standards, civil rights, social security, medicare, ending gender discrimination in marriage contracts, etc., etc. etc.
There are also retrograde motions, to be sure, but the point of equilibrium has moved a bit leftward with every swing.
The GOP's recent reversion to authoritarianism, the weird worship of one dude, the intrusion of rabid statism into the womb, etc. portend a significant leftward compensation:
Politics exhibits a compensatory property, a swing in one direction augers a swing in the other.
When a pendulum is displaced sideways from its resting, equilibrium position, it is subject to a restorative force due to gravity that will accelerate it back toward the equilibrium position.
Unlike the precise, predictable properties of the pendulum (the eternal return), an equilibrium in politics is continually redefined by progress over time - manumission, women's suffrage, child labor laws, workplace safety standards, civil rights, social security, medicare, ending gender discrimination in marriage contracts, etc., etc. etc.
There are also retrograde motions, to be sure, but the point of equilibrium has moved a bit leftward with every swing.
The GOP's recent reversion to authoritarianism, the weird worship of one dude, the intrusion of rabid statism into the womb, etc. portend a significant leftward compensation:
[P]redictions may bear out in the next campaign cycle, but in the longer term, things look quite different for the two parties — and any Republicans sanguine about their prospects a decade from now aren’t paying close attention.
The Republican Party has dug itself a hole with regard to young, educated voters.
Although Americans under 30 are less likely to vote than their older counterparts, they are a rapidly growing proportion of the electorate. Gen Z Americans, a cohort that includes today’s college students, now make up almost a quarter of the nation’s population. They are in line to be the nation’s most formally educated generation, with higher high school graduation rates and lower dropout rates than earlier cohorts.
But the Republican Party has done more to alienate young, college-educated voters in recent years than ever before. A nationwide poll fielded in late September ... shows that nearly three-quarters of college-age voters do not think the Republican Party represents them in any capacity. Sixty-six percent of students today cannot imagine registering as Republicans in the next 10 years, when their voices may be even stronger. And a striking 43 percent of respondents think the Republican Party is flat-out racist...
Young, educated voters have favored Democratic candidates for decades, but the gap has grown much larger than before...The survey showed the Republican Party has become directly associated with racist, unconstitutional attitudes that strike most students as beyond the pale. They perceive Republicans as a threat to their own future, and democracy in general...
The recent poll shows a path forward for Republicans — if they embrace moderate reforms around race, women’s health and the environment. This poses a conundrum for a party that has hardened itself behind positions that motivate the aging Republican base: Those are exactly the policies it will have to slowly abandon if Republicans want to have a chance in the future.
The Republican base of older, non-college, white voters will shrink rapidly in the coming years, leaving the party with a small and aging electorate. The party’s nominees have lost the popular vote in seven of the last eight presidential elections — and with Georgia, Arizona, Texas, Florida, Tennessee and Ohio becoming younger and more educated, Republicans are at risk of losing their advantage in the Electoral College as well.
The Republican Party has dug itself a hole with regard to young, educated voters.
Although Americans under 30 are less likely to vote than their older counterparts, they are a rapidly growing proportion of the electorate. Gen Z Americans, a cohort that includes today’s college students, now make up almost a quarter of the nation’s population. They are in line to be the nation’s most formally educated generation, with higher high school graduation rates and lower dropout rates than earlier cohorts.
But the Republican Party has done more to alienate young, college-educated voters in recent years than ever before. A nationwide poll fielded in late September ... shows that nearly three-quarters of college-age voters do not think the Republican Party represents them in any capacity. Sixty-six percent of students today cannot imagine registering as Republicans in the next 10 years, when their voices may be even stronger. And a striking 43 percent of respondents think the Republican Party is flat-out racist...
Young, educated voters have favored Democratic candidates for decades, but the gap has grown much larger than before...The survey showed the Republican Party has become directly associated with racist, unconstitutional attitudes that strike most students as beyond the pale. They perceive Republicans as a threat to their own future, and democracy in general...
The recent poll shows a path forward for Republicans — if they embrace moderate reforms around race, women’s health and the environment. This poses a conundrum for a party that has hardened itself behind positions that motivate the aging Republican base: Those are exactly the policies it will have to slowly abandon if Republicans want to have a chance in the future.
The Republican base of older, non-college, white voters will shrink rapidly in the coming years, leaving the party with a small and aging electorate. The party’s nominees have lost the popular vote in seven of the last eight presidential elections — and with Georgia, Arizona, Texas, Florida, Tennessee and Ohio becoming younger and more educated, Republicans are at risk of losing their advantage in the Electoral College as well.
THIS TOO SHALL PASS.