The Only Solution To Ukraine's Grain Export Crisis - Ukrainian Rail!

[JimofPennsylvan]

The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine War has caused a food crisis as Ukraine has been a huge exporters of agricultural products to the world; and, the really alarming thing about this is that it has caused some food prices to dramatically increase in the Middle East and Africa and many people in those regions spend a high and inordinate amount of their income on food so hugely higher food prices in these arear means increased hunger for such people. A more detailed description of the problem is that the Country of Ukraine ships the vast majority of its agricultural products for export through its Black Sea Ports and because of the war this area is blockaded by the Russian Navy and is mined. Numerous people and various leaders have advocated for various solutions involving the Black Sea one category how to get Russia to relent here and reopen this export avenue or maybe have the Free World lead an armada of ships to Ukraine's Black See ports load the ships and sail it out of there toward the Middle East. I think wisdom calls for writing those possible solutions off, Russia is not going to cooperate, Russia's behavior with this war is outstandingly bad and the world should only expect continued badness from Russia that is their character!

The solution to how to get Ukrainian agricultural products to world export markets is through the rail system using Ukraine's rail system and its western and southern neighboring countries rail to these countries Black Sea Ports; granted it is not a perfect solution but it could significantly lessen the worlds current food shortage problem and help Ukraine's economy. One thing I suspect is an obstacle to this idea is a shortage of rail cars which hold agricultural products. The solution to this problem is to convert steel shipping containers to hold agricultural products, the world has like a zillion of these shipping containers and an abundance of rail cars that hold these containers. On how to convert shipping containers to sanitized containers that can transport agricultural products in a manner that is safe for food consumption the following could be done. Steel shipping containers have two side doors that swing out at one end of the container; a steel plate could be welded to the doors over the seam between the doors making a solid side wall so now you have a structurally strong container (during the manufacturing process this step would not be the first step done because it would be easier for the workmen to enter the container through this side entrance). Next cut two hatch like holes in the top of the container between the structural steel beams (these hatches would be where the agricultural products would be added into and withdrawn from the container). Next using steel studs (available from home building supplies businesses)build a frame abutting to the walls of the shipping container, you could use construction adhesive that comes in caulk tubes to disperse the adhesive to connect the studs to the sides of the container. After the steel frame is built use sheets of stainless steel to make the sanitized walls of the container and use blind rivets to connect the stainless sheets to the steel frame.

Probably making more shipping containers available for transporting Ukrainian grain even using Ukraine's current rail system will probably significantly increase Ukraine's grain exports. However, it would be beneficial to add additional rail lines in Ukraine going west and south from Ukraine's agricultural belt. The challenge is to get the money to build this rail expansion. I don't know if part or the entirety of Ukraine's rail system is privatized if it is all the better if it is not the government should privatize a part of it even if it holds all the stock of the privatized rail company until after the war when Ukraine's economy returns to normal and a fair price could be obtained for the stock. The reason for using a privatized rail company to expand the Ukraine rail system is to tap into America's Export Bank. The thinking would be to build additional rail lines you need steel rails, railroad ties, switching equipment, etc. well if you buy it from U.S. manufacturers then you could possibly use the American Export Bank to finance it and using the White House leverage maybe you could get loan terms where you don't have to begin paying back the loan for four or five years (after the war is over hopefully). What the Ukrainian rail companies might want to do if this is legally possible is setup a third party organization and have the third party entity take out the loans from the U.S. Export Bank and of course the Ukranian rail company would pay off the loan but this third party arrangement would allow the railroad company to give this third party entity stock warrants in the railroad company and so after the war when the economy returns to normal this third party entity could sell the stock warrants and use the proceeds to pay off as much of the loan as the proceeds allow helping the railroad company retire this Export Bank debt as quickly as possible. I think prudence calls for the conclusion that Ukrainian rail systems especially ones heading toward Europe are going to be very valuable after the war because not only for their value in rebuilding Ukraine but also even if sanity returns to the diesel fuel market, truck transportation will be costly because long term diesel will be costly because across the world supply will be curtailed by environmentalists.


Ukraine should build the rail lines over streams and the like with designs that can be built as quickly as possibly (better construction can be done later); just lay concrete sewage or drainage pipe next to one another and just build steel bar reinforced side retaining walls and then add the soil and stone for the rail bed; retaining walls are used widespread across America's rail system as the keystone support structure in specific areas. Over major rivers in Ukraine there is probably not enough time to build rail bridges to get Ukraine out of this grain export crisis; of course ferries could be used to transport shipping containers across rivers but how about using the mechanism they use at major ski resorts to transport people up the slopes "funitels" or "gondolas with two support cables". These cableway systems where you have two suspended parallel cables that are able to move and you could have four connected arms hanging from the cable about the distance of the length and width of a shipping container and you could have a four chains with hooks on the ends hanging down with pneumatic lift capacity and just latch the hooks to the corner of the shipping container and just lift it off the ground and then have the cables move thereby moving the shipping container to the other side of the river.

Building rail lines isn't like building skyscrapers which takes a lot of skill you could probably train most people to do most of the jobs needed to be filled pretty quickly to build the rail lines. If I was the head of Ukraine and the decision was made to go ahead with major rail expansion and labor was needed in those cities and towns in central and western Ukraine where there is home guard units or militia units to resist a Russian invasion on their home communities because these communities are not now under Russian attack I would call up these units this summer for two months of service to help build rail lines. If this caused any unit member an undue burden I would allow this service to be excused for such an individual. If I was the head of Ukraine I would tell my people that this reopening of Ukraine's grain export business is in the same category of importance as direct military activity of the Ukrainian army because Ukraine needs its agricultural industry to be as strong as possible because Ukraine needs every hryvnia from this industry that flows to the Ukrainian treasury to support the Ukrainian war effort. Ukraine does not know how long this Russian Invasion war will last and one major tenet of wisdom is prepare for the worst and hope for the best; Ukraine should be prepared for a long war against Russia if need be and so it will need every hryvnia it can get its hands on to buy ammunition (rockets, shells and bullets, etc.) to protect its soldiers in the field, these Ukrainians lives depend on this ammunition continuing to flow.

 

[Rambunctious]

This was predicted before the invasion while Biden was sunning himself on the weekends... And did you all hear that Kamala refuses to work weekends???? WTF????

 

[Ringo]

Ukrainian nationalists deliberately set a fire in the port of Mariupol and destroyed more than 50 thousand tons of grain. This was reported by the Russian Defense Ministry.

"It has been reliably established that the militants of the nationalist battalions, leaving the occupied territories, not wanting to leave grain supplies to the residents of the city of Mariupol, deliberately set fire to a large granary in the seaport. As a result, more than 50 thousand tons of grain were destroyed," the ministry said in a statement.

Thus, the Ukrainian authorities are actually using methods of food terrorism against their own people, the Defense Ministry said.

Earlier, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Russian specialists were leaving for Turkey on June 6, where negotiations on the export of Ukrainian grain would take place.

Before that, the President of Russia said that grain from Ukraine can be exported in six directions, it is cheaper to do it through Belarus.

 

[Dekster]

Australia may have another record year of wheat production. That will take some of the edge off. Really, the too wet to plant much midwest spring in the US is the only thing that is hurting us. As for the Middle East, who cares. They don't seem inclined to lower oil prices, so they can starve to death for all I care.

 

[para bellum]

Australia may have another record year of wheat production. That will take some of the edge off. Really, the too wet to plant much midwest spring in the US is the only thing that is hurting us. As for the Middle East, who cares. They don't seem inclined to lower oil prices, so they can starve to death for all I care.

I just read somewhere that the US and Canada have both increased the wheat planting by ~7% this year as well.

Canada also suffered a lot of rain this spring, so it's too soon to know what the 2022 crop will actually look like- but it's an indication that AG depts were thinking ahead...

 

[Rogue AI]

Ukrainian rail is not the answer. Pushing Ukrainian goods through the rest of Europe will only exasperate supply chain issues for everything else. The West needs to decide which is more important, global food security or their economic war against Russia.

 

[ESay]

Exporting Ukrainian wheat to some Europan country by rail will raise costs and limit the capacity of Ukrainian wheat export.

Turkey is working out a plan to export through the ports of the Black Sea in Odesa region. They are ready to offer their ships and some security guarantees. In exchange they want 25% off the price.

They main flaw of this plan is this will require a clean security passage near Ukrainian shoreline which means these waters should be de-mined. That, in turn, can enable Russia to attack the shoreline or bring their marines there.

 

[Ringo]

Ukrainian political scientist Vasily Vakarov said that the Kiev authorities are trying to portray a picture of grain in Ukraine in a way that is interesting to Western curators, but does not exist in reality.

According to him, grain was exported from Ukraine before February 24, 2022, when a special military operation of the Russian Federation began. However, the Ukrainian leadership continues to insist that the reserves exist for the supply of Western weapons.


"We are at an impasse, and not only because the Russian army is winning. We are at another impasse. The cynicism of the grain painting for me is as follows. About three weeks ago, when this issue was just being discussed, I spoke with one broker, then with another – with people who are engaged in this business in Ukraine. And they tell me: "Dmitrievich, what are you doing? In the month of February, we have long since taken out all the grain. We have no grain! We have corn, there are some other crops that are exported across the Danube, through which, by the way, we supply weapons," Vakarov said in the Evening with Vladimir Solovyov program.

The Kiev authorities are playing on the grain theme, trying to create the appearance of their importance to the West, having nothing on their hands. The day before, the head of the Ukrainian Grain Association (UZA), Nikolai Gorbachev, said in the UK that about 30 million tons of wheat from last year's harvest remain in Ukrainian storages. Farmers may not have enough warehouses for a new grain harvest, since some of the elevators are no longer controlled by Kiev.