The Inevitable: Syria About To Cave

[Annie]

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/811ace1c-8d1b-11d9-9d37-00000e2511c8.html

Syria expected to announce redeployment of troops in Lebanon
By Roula Khalaf in Beirut
Published: March 5 2005 02:00 | Last updated: March 5 2005 02:00

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is expected to announce a redeployment of Syrian troops in Lebanon when he addresses his parliament today, say Lebanese politicians.


Mr Assad's speech, which the Syrian press agency said would deal with "current political developments" follows unprecedented international pressure on Damascus to withdraw its 15,000 troops and its secret services from Lebanon.

After talks with Sergei Lavrov, Russia's foreign minister, in Moscow yesterday, Walid al-Muallim, Syrian's deputy foreign minister, said Damascus would soon reveal what he called "an agreement between Syria and Lebanon" which he said would meet the approval of the United Nations Security Council.

Mr Lavrov said he was "satisfied" that Syria would take steps to "correspond" with UN resolution 1559, which calls for all foreign troops to leave Lebanon.

On Thursday, Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Abdullah warned Mr Assad to heed international demands or face tensions in Syria's relationship with the kingdom. Lebanese politicians familiar with the meeting said Mr Assad had appeared "responsive".

Jack Straw, UK foreign secretary, yesterday said Syrian failure to withdraw from Lebanon risked turning it into a "pariah" state, shunned by the west as well as its Arab neighbours.

Lebanese politicians said Mr Assad was expected at the very least to announce a redeployment of troops stationed across the country to Lebanon's Beka'a valley, a move that the defence ministry in Beirut last week said had already been agreed.

Such a redeployment would be a delayed application of the 1989 Taif accord, which paved the way for an end to Lebanon's 1975-1991 civil war.

The agreement envisaged that Syrian troops would all be stationed in the Beka'a valley by 1992 and that a timetable for their withdrawal would be agreed with the Lebanese authorities.

Some reports in Beirut suggested the redeployment would be coupled with the return of some forces to Syria. Damascus, however, was believed to be insisting that a complete withdrawal required security guarantees and a resumption of the Israeli-Syrian peace process.

Mr Straw said Syria faced a strategic choice. "It may be tough for it," he told the BBC's Radio 4. "They have anxieties, which most people in the region think are completely exaggerated, that if they pull their forces out Lebanon, they will face the possibility of invasion by Israel." He added that if Syria pulled its forces out, it had to do it in a "sensible, swift but phased" way. "Then they can come back into the fold of the international community," he said.

Lebanon's opposition, which has staged repeated street demonstrations that helped bring down the pro-Syrian government on Monday, has insisted on a total withdrawal of Syrian troops and of intelligence services that are accused of manipulating Lebanese politics.