The 2016 map is moving toward Trump. But not enough. Not yet.

[JakeStarkey]

Here is a very thoughtful piece by Chris Cillizza today.

He argues that we all must realize the following:

====================

1. Donald Trump is making polling gains in key swing states.

2. Hillary Clinton remains in the driver's seat.

The recent coverage of the presidential race tends to focus heavily on No. 1 and barely makes mention of No. 2. There is no doubt — as I have written in this space — that Trump is on the march in swing states. But what gets lost is that A) Trump was way behind so his recent gains have made him competitive rather than dominant, and B) the electoral map favors any Democrat over any Republican.

The latest Fix analysis of the map represents that dual reality. Yes, Trump is in better shape in our latest map than he was when we last handicapped the 2016 race in mid-August. But he remains considerably behind Clinton in the race for 270 electoral votes.

Here's the new map:
We've made four changes — all benefiting Trump — since last month.

First, we are pushing Iowa to lean Republican from our toss-up category. Iowa has consistently been more friendly to Trump than other traditional swing states — the result of being whiter as well as older and filled with more non-college-educated white voters. (Philip Bump wrote a terrific piece explaining Iowa — and Nevada — and Trump here.) Trump now has a 4.3-point edge over Clinton in Iowa, according to RealClearPolitics, a margin that puts it out of step with our other toss-up states (Florida, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio.)

We are doing the same with Georgia, where Clinton's team appears to be making a push, but Trump's recent consolidation of Republican voters suggests that the state simply isn't there yet for the Democrat to win a majority of the vote. Trump's lead in the Peach State is now 4.2 point, according to RealClearPolitics.

We've also moved Missouri and Utah off the map entirely, with polling suggesting that these two reliably Republican states are reverting to their traditional behavior. Trump's lead is almost eight points in Missouri, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average; the last three polls in Utah have shown Trump ahead by 15, 20 and 12 points, respectively.

But even with those changes, Clinton still winds up with 273 electoral votes — three more than she needs to be elected. That means Clinton could lose the four states we currently rate as toss-ups, as well as every lean-Republican state, and still win.

Why? Because what Trump needs to do and which he has been unable to do just yet is move states leaning toward Clinton into the toss-up category. If you use the RealClearPolitics averages, Trump's best chances there are Virginia (Clinton +3.5) and Colorado (Clinton +3.7). In no other lean-Democratic state is Clinton leading by less than five points in the RealClearPolitics polling averages. Polling in Pennsylvania, the state that Trump is convinced he can win, puts him down 6.6 points.


Unless and until Trump can put a few lean-Democratic states in play, Clinton will win. And as of today, she is still doing just that.

Here's the full list of competitive states as we currently rate them:

Toss-up (68 electoral votes)
Florida (29)
Ohio (18)
Nevada (6)
North Carolina (15)

Lean Democratic (72 electoral votes)
Colorado (9)
Michigan (16)
New Hampshire (4)
Pennsylvania (20)
Virginia (13)
Wisconsin (10)

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[HenryBHough]

Dream on, little dreamer, dream on....

 

[bendog]

Here is a very thoughtful piece by Chris Cillizza today.

He argues that we all must realize the following:

====================

1. Donald Trump is making polling gains in key swing states.

2. Hillary Clinton remains in the driver's seat.

The recent coverage of the presidential race tends to focus heavily on No. 1 and barely makes mention of No. 2. There is no doubt — as I have written in this space — that Trump is on the march in swing states. But what gets lost is that A) Trump was way behind so his recent gains have made him competitive rather than dominant, and B) the electoral map favors any Democrat over any Republican.

The latest Fix analysis of the map represents that dual reality. Yes, Trump is in better shape in our latest map than he was when we last handicapped the 2016 race in mid-August. But he remains considerably behind Clinton in the race for 270 electoral votes.

Here's the new map:
We've made four changes — all benefiting Trump — since last month.

First, we are pushing Iowa to lean Republican from our toss-up category. Iowa has consistently been more friendly to Trump than other traditional swing states — the result of being whiter as well as older and filled with more non-college-educated white voters. (Philip Bump wrote a terrific piece explaining Iowa — and Nevada — and Trump here.) Trump now has a 4.3-point edge over Clinton in Iowa, according to RealClearPolitics, a margin that puts it out of step with our other toss-up states (Florida, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio.)

We are doing the same with Georgia, where Clinton's team appears to be making a push, but Trump's recent consolidation of Republican voters suggests that the state simply isn't there yet for the Democrat to win a majority of the vote. Trump's lead in the Peach State is now 4.2 point, according to RealClearPolitics.

We've also moved Missouri and Utah off the map entirely, with polling suggesting that these two reliably Republican states are reverting to their traditional behavior. Trump's lead is almost eight points in Missouri, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average; the last three polls in Utah have shown Trump ahead by 15, 20 and 12 points, respectively.

But even with those changes, Clinton still winds up with 273 electoral votes — three more than she needs to be elected. That means Clinton could lose the four states we currently rate as toss-ups, as well as every lean-Republican state, and still win.

Why? Because what Trump needs to do and which he has been unable to do just yet is move states leaning toward Clinton into the toss-up category. If you use the RealClearPolitics averages, Trump's best chances there are Virginia (Clinton +3.5) and Colorado (Clinton +3.7). In no other lean-Democratic state is Clinton leading by less than five points in the RealClearPolitics polling averages. Polling in Pennsylvania, the state that Trump is convinced he can win, puts him down 6.6 points.


Unless and until Trump can put a few lean-Democratic states in play, Clinton will win. And as of today, she is still doing just that.

Here's the full list of competitive states as we currently rate them:

Toss-up (68 electoral votes)
Florida (29)
Ohio (18)
Nevada (6)
North Carolina (15)

Lean Democratic (72 electoral votes)
Colorado (9)
Michigan (16)
New Hampshire (4)
Pennsylvania (20)
Virginia (13)
Wisconsin (10)

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Thanks. Nice to see that, since I thought the same. But there's no denying Trump has "big mo." Not that I like Hillary but the option is noxious.

It will be an interesting week. I thought Hillary had to seize on an issue (educ would have been my best option) but the issue of the week will obviously be terrorism and immigration.

 

[SassyIrishLass]

One more seize up by Cankles should do it

 

[ScienceRocks]

lol,

how?

Record low support among non-whites. Hispanics are polling in the upper teens and non-whites as a group are polling around 75% for clinton.
Record support with Women! 11-15% more support for Clinton. First female head of a ticket. 2004, 2008, 2012 were all dictated by female turn out as they make up 5-6% more of the electorate.
Within 5 among educated whites and blowing Trump out of the water among the group.

The math doesn't make sense as between white women and educated it is still only 55% white support against 75% non-white opposition.

And no Trump doesn't have a chance to get these non-whites or educated back as this yelling, bitching and dumb behavior is why he lost it in the first place.

Many of these polls are rigged in his favor and show way to many white males.

 

[Fueri]

Well, at this snapshot in time that's true.

I prefer Nate Silver's site for all of this kind of thing for many reasons, primarily in that his models are somewhat predictive, move constantly rather than taking these sorts of 'snapshots' and he's been right an awful lot of the time.

One of the things he said weeks ago is holding true, in that the swing states should not be taken singly, but rather that they move together, and that has been happening. Not all at once, but Hillary has lost some of them and is losing ground across most, if not all, of them.

The trend right now is in Trump's direction. Whether or not that will hold enough to swing another couple of major states, such as CO or PA we don't know, but if she doesn't stem the tide at the debates or via some other means, she could very realistically lose this race.

One more negative event for Clinton- a health "episode", a wikileaks dump, or something similar and she has real problems.

 

[The Irish Ram]

Since then they have moved Co. Michigan, and NH to toss up. I think it was Michigan. Might have been Mn.
Ohio, Nevada, and Florida, have been moved to leaning Trump. I'm pretty sure he has Ohio. Ohio is tired of rusting, and a whole lot of people are voting FUKasich. But Trump has to take Pennsylvania.

 

[JimH52]

And remember, Mighty Mouth will not have a teleprompter for the debates. Hillary will eat him alive, with the way she prepares.

 

[bendog]

She didn't take him down at the commaders and chief.

He was not fact checked however. But he admitted to saying female integration in the armed forces would "naturally" lead to rape. How crazy is that, yet no one minded.

 

[JimH52]

She didn't take him down at the commaders and chief.

He was not fact checked however. But he admitted to saying female integration in the armed forces would "naturally" lead to rape. How crazy is that, yet no one minded.

Cult members have poor hearing.

 

[bendog]

She didn't take him down at the commaders and chief.

He was not fact checked however. But he admitted to saying female integration in the armed forces would "naturally" lead to rape. How crazy is that, yet no one minded.

Cult members have poor hearing.

I've accepted that 40% have been driven to desperation by no work for people who don't do good in college and the "browning" of America ... but when Donald starts inching towards 50% .... I am scared shitless.

 

[MarathonMike]

It's hilarious that Liberals still cling to the fantasy that Trump's only supporters are un-educated White Trash. You just keep believing that, if it makes you feel better. And your snobbery against the millions of intelligent Americans that do not have a college degree is duly noted.

 

[JakeStarkey]

It's hilarious that Liberals still cling to the fantasy that Trump's only supporters are un-educated White Trash. You just keep believing that, if it makes you feel better. And your snobbery against the millions of intelligent Americans that do not have a college degree is duly noted.

That is a loaded question fallacy. A poor one.

 

[amethyst]

if trump gets fl, nc, oh, pennsylvania he has 245, add az and ga = 272

 

[JimH52]

if trump gets fl, nc, oh, pennsylvania he has 245, add az and ga = 272

He won't....

 

[sealybobo]

lol,

how?

Record low support among non-whites. Hispanics are polling in the upper teens and non-whites as a group are polling around 75% for clinton.
Record support with Women! 11-15% more support for Clinton. First female head of a ticket. 2004, 2008, 2012 were all dictated by female turn out as they make up 5-6% more of the electorate.
Within 5 among educated whites and blowing Trump out of the water among the group.

The math doesn't make sense as between white women and educated it is still only 55% white support against 75% non-white opposition.

And no Trump doesn't have a chance to get these non-whites or educated back as this yelling, bitching and dumb behavior is why he lost it in the first place.

Many of these polls are rigged in his favor and show way to many white males.

The media wants this to be closer than it actually is. Let's see if Republicans are just as wrong as they have been the last two elections despite the corporate medias help.

 

[leftwinger]

lol,

how?

Record low support among non-whites. Hispanics are polling in the upper teens and non-whites as a group are polling around 75% for clinton.
Record support with Women! 11-15% more support for Clinton. First female head of a ticket. 2004, 2008, 2012 were all dictated by female turn out as they make up 5-6% more of the electorate.
Within 5 among educated whites and blowing Trump out of the water among the group.

The math doesn't make sense as between white women and educated it is still only 55% white support against 75% non-white opposition.

And no Trump doesn't have a chance to get these non-whites or educated back as this yelling, bitching and dumb behavior is why he lost it in the first place.

Many of these polls are rigged in his favor and show way to many white males.

 

[JakeStarkey]

if trump gets fl, nc, oh, pennsylvania he has 245, add az and ga = 272

Just like I said. He won't get PA.

 

[amethyst]

if trump gets fl, nc, oh, pennsylvania he has 245, add az and ga = 272

Just like I said. He won't get PA.

private polls show they are within the margin of error.

 

[JimH52]

if trump gets fl, nc, oh, pennsylvania he has 245, add az and ga = 272

Just like I said. He won't get PA.

private polls show they are within the margin of error.

So Karl Rove us doing polling now?