The 2014 Midterm Elections

[RandomVariable]

(The new and improved thread. )

Hello all, I would kind of like to do a thread for each race but for now I will run only one thread. If anyone has anything to say about any national election anywhere in the country I would love to hear it. To start off how about an attack ad that is running right now against Senator Kay Hagan (R-NC) paid for by Americans for Prosperity.

[ame=http://youtu.be/oA1a4FNesPI]Best Friends, Hagan + Obama - YouTube[/ame]

Alaska Senator Mark Begich Democratic

"A super-PAC backing Alaska Senate candidate Dan Sullivan (R) is up with its first radio ads, attacking Sen. Mark Begich (D-Alaska) and touting the former attorney general's candidacy.

Sullivan, a former George W. Bush appointee who has deep ties to some Washington power players, jumped into the race late last year after Alaska Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell (R) failed to catch fire in his fundraising efforts. He, Treadwell and 2010 Senate nominee Joe Miller (R), a Tea Party candidate, are vying for the nomination in the August primary to face Begich, who's top GOP target."

Read more: Super-PAC ads hit 'Malarkey Mark' Begich | TheHill
Follow us: [MENTION=27326]The[/MENTION]hill on Twitter | TheHill on Facebook

"The U.S. Senate campaign of Dan Sullivan announced today how much money he collected in his first three months of fund-raising – $1.2 million.
...
A survey by Ivan Moore published last month shows Treadwell leading with 34 percent of the vote in a three-way Republican primary, but Sullivan was close behind, nearly within the margin of error. The survey showed Joe Miller winning in much of the Railbelt, including Fairbanks, Mat-Su and the Kenai Peninsula, and Treadwell ahead in Anchorage and Southeast."
Former DNR Commissioner Dan Sullivan Raises $1.2 Million For Senate Race | Alaska Public Media

The conservative Judicial Crisis Network will begin airing an ad in Alaska on Wednesday attacking Sen. Mark Begich (D) for voting to confirm President Barack Obama’s judicial nominees.

The conservative group already has run six-figure ad buys against Arkansas’ Mark Pryor and Louisiana’s Mary Landrieu, two other vulnerable Democratic incumbent senators up for reelection next year in red states.

Carrie Severino, chief counsel to the network, said she hopes the ad scares Begich into voting against some Obama nominees facing confirmation in the near future.

Read more: Ad blasts Mark Begich over judge votes - James Hohmann - POLITICO.com

 

[HenryBHough]

(The new and improved thread. )

Alaska Senator Mark Begich Democratic

"A super-PAC backing Alaska Senate candidate Dan Sullivan (R) is up with its first radio ads, attacking Sen. Mark Begich (D-Alaska) and touting the former attorney general's candidacy.

Sullivan, a former George W. Bush appointee who has deep ties to some Washington power players, jumped into the race late last year after Alaska Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell (R) failed to catch fire in his fundraising efforts. He, Treadwell and 2010 Senate nominee Joe Miller (R), a Tea Party candidate, are vying for the nomination in the August primary to face Begich, who's top GOP target."

(this reply was posted in the original thread as mentioned above and is copied here....the original will be deleted)


This is going to be fun to watch.

Begich - frequently called "Alaska's boy senator" and "Mock Baggage" - won only because of the trumped up case against Senator Ted Stevens which ended in conviction. The conviction was overturned AFTER the election because of some extreme misconduct by the constitution.

There are TWO Dan Sullivans up for election this year. The one currently seeking the nomination to run against the boy senator AND another Dan Sullivan, this one the outgoing mayor of Anchorage who is running for (also a senatorial primary candidate) Mead Treadwells' current job - Lt. Governor.

The first DS has no clear record for good or for bad but the second, the outgoing mayor, has excellent conservative credentials. It appears that the name factor is going to either help or hurt. If enough conservatives confuse the two they'll vote for senatorial candidate Dan Sullivan in the mistaken belief that he is the mayor who saved Anchorage from the unions.

I imagine one of them could have run as "Daniel Sullivan" but the name-game may have been intentional. Either Treadwell or Sullivan would do a better job than the present Obama sycophant. The danger is that Joe Miller - unelectable - may have out-conservatived either Treadwell or Sullivan to an extent that when he loses those folks will stay home in November.

 

[william the wie]

The Koch ads, Americans for prosperity, are killing the Ds in more and more races. Also the late night comedians especially Jimmy Kimmel are doing major damage as well. At this point the major R objective is to avoid a party split so it will remain defector friendly.

This is the start of a long series of problems for the Ds. The state exchanges other than MA, NY and CA are generally in much worse shape than the national exchange. The increasing pace of ER closures is another big pothole.

 

[candycorn]

The GOP should take the Senate in 2014 (should have taken it in 2012 actually)...

 

[Old Rocks]

The GOP should take the Senate in 2014 (should have taken it in 2012 actually)...

"legal rape"

 

[candycorn]

The GOP should take the Senate in 2014 (should have taken it in 2012 actually)...

"legal rape"

I think it was "legitimate rape" which is even worse IMHO.

 

[RandomVariable]

Mark Pryor Hurt By Anti-Obama Mood In Arkansas
"If anyone can stop the GOP streak, Democrats say, it's Pryor, who has spent his life politicking in a state where many voters still want to know their candidates personally. Pryor's popular father, David, long represented the state in Washington, in the House and Senate, and also was governor.

He has attended Gillett's annual suppers since the mid-1970s "with my dad," Pryor, 51, told the crowd. He then introduced his three guests from Washington: Democratic Sens. Dick Durbin of Illinois and Joe Donnelly of Indiana, and independent Sen. Angus King of Maine, who joined Pryor for a duck hunt Sunday.
...
Six years ago, Republicans didn't bother to challenge Pryor's bid for a second term. Two years later, when his Democratic colleague Blanche Lincoln ran for a third term, she lost in a landslide to Republican John Boozman, now the state's junior senator.
...
For nine straight presidential elections starting in 1972, Arkansas backed the national winner. But everything changed when Obama ran, and Arkansas veered sharply from the national mainstream. Obama lost the state to Arizona Sen. John McCain by 20 percentage points in 2008. He fared even worse against Mitt Romney in 2012.
...
Tall, slim and ramrod straight, he is a bit stiffer in public than Pryor. He accepts the tea party label with a caveat.

"I want to be the candidate of the tea party," Cotton said. He added: "I want to be the candidate of the establishment."

Brock, the TV host, said Cotton appears thus far to being uniting the state's fractious GOP. But having run only one fairly easy House campaign, Brock said, Cotton, hasn't endured the statewide races that Pryor has.

Pryor might be able to fend off Cotton because of his political skills "and the good feelings about the Pryor family" in Arkansas, said Rex Nelson, a longtime Arkansas politics reporter before joining Republican Gov. Mike Huckabee's staff.

However, Nelson said, "as long as Barack Obama is in the White House, it's going to be hard for anyone in Arkansas with a "D'' next to his name.""

 

[william the wie]

The Rs have a major problem:

If Ocare is such a catastrophe that they break 67 in the senate the party will almost certainly split.

60-66 they may split.

The Ds have a different problem.

Their safest seats are their most radical seats so a big defeat will lead to an even more radical party.

This could get interesting

 

[Nyvin]

The Rs have a major problem:

If Ocare is such a catastrophe that they break 67 in the senate the party will almost certainly split.

60-66 they may split.

The Ds have a different problem.

Their safest seats are their most radical seats so a big defeat will lead to an even more radical party.

This could get interesting

Going from 45 to 67? 22 Senate races won from Democrats or vacant seats...and not losing one single GOP seat to the democrats?

Isn't that a bit unrealistic?

 

[Zander]

This is how it stands as of dec 13 according to Cook Partisan Voting Index

 

[william the wie]

The Rs have a major problem:

If Ocare is such a catastrophe that they break 67 in the senate the party will almost certainly split.

60-66 they may split.

The Ds have a different problem.

Their safest seats are their most radical seats so a big defeat will lead to an even more radical party.

This could get interesting

Going from 45 to 67? 22 Senate races won from Democrats or vacant seats...and not losing one single GOP seat to the democrats?

Isn't that a bit unrealistic?

It depends on how much the dragging out of dirty laundry about the program goes. Given the current drip, drip, drip of bad news I would say 10-25% probable if the current rate continues.

 

[william the wie]

I will readily concede that the current over/under is about 56 R 2014 outcome but the shoes keep dropping and the Koch brothers ad campaign is going largely unanswered. The flop sweat smell is increasing.

 

[Nyvin]

The Rs have a major problem:

If Ocare is such a catastrophe that they break 67 in the senate the party will almost certainly split.

60-66 they may split.

The Ds have a different problem.

Their safest seats are their most radical seats so a big defeat will lead to an even more radical party.

This could get interesting

Going from 45 to 67? 22 Senate races won from Democrats or vacant seats...and not losing one single GOP seat to the democrats?

Isn't that a bit unrealistic?

It depends on how much the dragging out of dirty laundry about the program goes. Given the current drip, drip, drip of bad news I would say 10-25% probable if the current rate continues.

No, it's mathematically impossible considering there is only 21 democrat seats up for election. The max the GOP could possibly get to is 66.