The 2012 Electoral College state of play

ladyliberal

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It's a rough map from a Democratic perspective. The new census figures factor in the population shift to the South, but this shift hasn't been enough to make the southern states competitive (yet). This reduces the Republican "wasted vote" (any votes in a state beyond 50% plus one), which already favored Republicans. The electoral college also gives all states two or three extra votes (two for senators, and minimum one), which favors Republicans, who tend to win the smallest states.

The only way I can think of in which the electoral college favors Obama is that because of his large victory in 2008, he has already one in 2012's battleground states (the usual suspects, Ohio, Florida, etc.). Voters in these states probably have a somewhat higher sense of ownership of the Obama presidency than they would if their states hadn't voted for him.

An ambiguous issue that arises is the effect of the partisan composition of the state governments. Given the strength of Republicans in 2010, most battleground states have Republican leaders. They can try to help their candidates directly (a la Jeb Bush and Katharine Harris in 2000) but their dominant effect is probably their coattails. Given the unpopularity of their ambitious legislative programs, they may have negative coattails (for example, voters may turn out in droves to vote against Governor Scott in Ohio, delivering the state for Obama).
 

Charles_Main

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Living in Michigan, I can tell you there is a very strong Grass roots movement against Obama here. Michigan was actually a player in the Birth of the Tea Party.

It all comes down to Detroit, and turn out there. Unemployment among Blacks in Detroit is sky High. So you can bet they will be less motivated to come out to vote. We Just swept the Republicans in at the State level in 2010. Basically it comes down to a battle between the Union base in Detroit, and the Rest of Michigan. Areas like Muskegon and Holland that went to Obama last time. Are really hurting, and have not seen nearly as much of the hand outs as Detroit.

Hell even the 125 Million dollar road project we got up here in the North, 250 miles from Detroit. Was done with 95% Out of town union Labor from Detroit.

If he takes Michigan this time around I am Moving to Texas! LOL

I Really think Michigan should be in the Tossup column this time around.
 

candycorn

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Living in Michigan, I can tell you there is a very strong Grass roots movement against Obama here. Michigan was actually a player in the Birth of the Tea Party.

It all comes down to Detroit, and turn out there. Unemployment among Blacks in Detroit is sky High. So you can bet they will be less motivated to come out to vote. We Just swept the Republicans in at the State level in 2010. Basically it comes down to a battle between the Union base in Detroit, and the Rest of Michigan. Areas like Muskegon and Holland that went to Obama last time. Are really hurting, and have not seen nearly as much of the hand outs as Detroit.

Hell even the 125 Million dollar road project we got up here in the North, 250 miles from Detroit. Was done with 95% Out of town union Labor from Detroit.

If he takes Michigan this time around I am Moving to Texas! LOL

I Really think Michigan should be in the Tossup column this time around.
Gore lost his home state so anything is possible. I would be surprised if he didn't win Michigan by 5 percentage points though. Stranger things have happened.
 

Jroc

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Obama loses MI,OH,FL he's toast:cool:
 

candycorn

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Zander

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Here's the takeaway from the article in my opinion:
Republicans are a lock or lead in 24 states for 206 electoral votes, and Democrats have or lead in 19 states for 247 electoral votes. Seven super-swing states with 85 electors will determine which party gets to the 270 Electoral College majority: Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (18) and Virginia (13). Prior to Obama’s 2008 victories in each state, several of these toss-ups had generally or firmly leaned Republican for most elections since 1980.
Obama looks very vulnerable.
 
OP
clevergirl

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Here's the takeaway from the article in my opinion:
Republicans are a lock or lead in 24 states for 206 electoral votes, and Democrats have or lead in 19 states for 247 electoral votes. Seven super-swing states with 85 electors will determine which party gets to the 270 Electoral College majority: Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (18) and Virginia (13). Prior to Obama’s 2008 victories in each state, several of these toss-ups had generally or firmly leaned Republican for most elections since 1980.
Obama looks very vulnerable.
Especially in light of his job approval numbers. I think we will see, in the following weeks, that his numbers sink even further on the tail end of his lecture... err speech... err address.
 

JoeB131

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I don't think it's even going to be close.

I think another year of 9% unemployment, a possible second dip in the recession, and we are going to look like blowouts like we had in the 1980's. The GOP nominee will be competitive in places the GOP hasn't made a showing in since 1988 or 1984.

Hell, Wisconsin will be in play. Wisconsin hasn't gone GOP since 1984.
 

Mr. Shaman

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Unemployment among Blacks in Detroit is sky High.
You "conservatives" ALWAYS make that sound like some kind o' heavy-duty "accomplishment" (on your part).

You've gotta get-over you sadistic-tendencies. Look at what that's gotten Texas.

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gkmBc2ONJH8]Texas Wildfire - YouTube[/ame]
 

JoeB131

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Unemployment among Blacks in Detroit is sky High.
You "conservatives" ALWAYS make that sound like some kind o' heavy-duty "accomplishment" (on your part).



actually, we see it more like a self-inflicted wound.

High unemployment is what 50 years of liberal welfare state gets you... Why pull the wagon when you can ride in it?​
 

ladyliberal

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Obama loses MI,OH,FL he's toast:cool:
It won't be good for President Obama of course but according to 2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College, he could lose all three of those states and still get to 270.
It would be 296-242 assuming they went red and a third party challenger isn't in play.

I encourage all who are interested to use the interactive calculator at the site: Very helpful
I believe the scenario you're describing is one in which Obama wins in all the states that he did in 2008 except MI, OH, FL. That doesn't strike me as a reasonable scenario:

President Map - Election Results 2008 - The New York Times

Obama won MI by 16.5%. He won NC by .4%, IN by .9% and plenty of other states by about 5%. I can't imagine Obama losing MI, OH, and FL but winning the election.
 

Mad Scientist

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We should just cancel the elections and anoint Rick Perry, it's in the bag you know.
 

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