That fallacy of almost all pollsters... there are more democrats so we count more democrats...

healthmyths

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Sep 19, 2011
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When anyone looks closer at usually the very last page of the poll showing how many people voted and their party identification.
Now the following article without proof made this statement:

The fact is there just are more Democrats out there than Republicans,
and this has largely been the case at least since the New Deal.

And by the way... THIS IS TRUE!!!

But the article goes on to PROVE that it is a 6% advantage and again their justification was their
above statement. BUT IS THAT TRUE???
HuffPollster, which aggregates hundreds of polls across nearly 100 different pollsters, finds that averaging across 2016 polls, 34.8 percent of Americans identify as Democrats and 28.7 percent identify as Republicans—roughly a six-point Democratic advantage. This is very similar to the CBS poll’s partisan composition. Democrats maintain this advantage even among the national electorate. HuffPollster finds on average that among likely voters 38 percent are Democrats and 32.9 percent are Republicans—a 5.1-point Democratic advantage.
No, The Polls Aren’t Biased. Clinton Really Is Leading Trump

Gallup says differently.
Gallup says 29% called themselves Democrats...versus GOP which is 26%
3% difference...not the SIX POINTS that the above article states.
historyDemsGopdemocgrahic.png

Democratic, Republican Identification Near Historical Lows

The point is the pollsters are automatically counting at least 3% more Democrats then
the reality i.e. that there are 3% more Democrats then GOP.

This is why most people who understands the bias of polling and especially how people "REALLY"
feel when they get behind the voting booth curtain... say GREAT! I'm in favor of showing Trump behind
because as it was with Truman, BREXIT and most events where the public really wants something that
the MSM and idiots think they shouldn't THEY prove the pollsters/pundits WRONG!!!
 
Trump is getting his ass kicked

ergo;

bad polls
voter fraud
evil media

bla bla bla


Trump sucks.
 
The polls are what they are

They do not set out to poll 50 Democrats and 50 Republicans
What they do is select a random sample and during the course of the poll will ask about party affiliation
It may come out to be 60 said Democrat and 40 said Republican. It does not mean the poll is skewed
 
Right wingers....like the O/P......are scrambling to find SOME excuse as to why the Trumpster is doing so badly, and in the process, abandoning all rationality (again, proven by the ridiculous assertion in the O/P).

Even the process of "random sampling" in a poll now seems to these right wingers as "unfair" since they don't like the results.
 
What happened to all the Bernie supporters, Hispanics, African Americans, and women that were going to flock to Trump?
 
What happened to all the Bernie supporters, Hispanics, African Americans, and women that were going to flock to Trump?


What happened, you ask??????

Answer: Trump opened his mouth (LOL)
 
What happened to all the Bernie supporters, Hispanics, African Americans, and women that were going to flock to Trump?
What happened to all the Bernout supporters who said Hitlery was a establishment puppet candidate for the 1%, are they going against their word?
 
The polls are what they are

They do not set out to poll 50 Democrats and 50 Republicans
What they do is select a random sample and during the course of the poll will ask about party affiliation
It may come out to be 60 said Democrat and 40 said Republican. It does not mean the poll is skewed


Of course the poll is skewed!
Ask 60 democrats if you support Hillary they say yes! Ask 40 GOP they may say YES.
Overall 60% of those asked favor Hillary..! Pretty damn skewed if you ask me!

What would you say if they numbers would be reversed? I am honest enough to say let's ask 50 Democrats and 50 GOP.
Are you and the pollster afraid to have a level playing field!
 
Of course the poll is skewed!
Ask 60 democrats if you support Hillary they say yes! Ask 40 GOP they may say YES.
Overall 60% of those asked favor Hillary..! Pretty damn skewed if you ask me!

What would you say if they numbers would be reversed? I am honest enough to say let's ask 50 Democrats and 50 GOP.
Are you and the pollster afraid to have a level playing field!


Only a junior high drop-out would state the above.....Heck, why don't you have FOX poll trump's family members and staff.......Bet you'd like those results even more.
 
When anyone looks closer at usually the very last page of the poll showing how many people voted and their party identification.
Now the following article without proof made this statement:

The fact is there just are more Democrats out there than Republicans,
and this has largely been the case at least since the New Deal.

And by the way... THIS IS TRUE!!!

But the article goes on to PROVE that it is a 6% advantage and again their justification was their
above statement. BUT IS THAT TRUE???
HuffPollster, which aggregates hundreds of polls across nearly 100 different pollsters, finds that averaging across 2016 polls, 34.8 percent of Americans identify as Democrats and 28.7 percent identify as Republicans—roughly a six-point Democratic advantage. This is very similar to the CBS poll’s partisan composition. Democrats maintain this advantage even among the national electorate. HuffPollster finds on average that among likely voters 38 percent are Democrats and 32.9 percent are Republicans—a 5.1-point Democratic advantage.
No, The Polls Aren’t Biased. Clinton Really Is Leading Trump

Gallup says differently.
Gallup says 29% called themselves Democrats...versus GOP which is 26%
3% difference...not the SIX POINTS that the above article states.
View attachment 85977
Democratic, Republican Identification Near Historical Lows

The point is the pollsters are automatically counting at least 3% more Democrats then
the reality i.e. that there are 3% more Democrats then GOP.

This is why most people who understands the bias of polling and especially how people "REALLY"
feel when they get behind the voting booth curtain... say GREAT! I'm in favor of showing Trump behind
because as it was with Truman, BREXIT and most events where the public really wants something that
the MSM and idiots think they shouldn't THEY prove the pollsters/pundits WRONG!!!

Gallup is one of the few pollsters that got 2012 wrong.
 
The polls are what they are

They do not set out to poll 50 Democrats and 50 Republicans
What they do is select a random sample and during the course of the poll will ask about party affiliation
It may come out to be 60 said Democrat and 40 said Republican. It does not mean the poll is skewed

Of course, it would be skewed if there were 60 Republicans and 40 Democrats.

Honestly, as polling was one of the ways that the DNC screwed over Bernie, I now actively try to skew their results. I and a group of people I'm affiliated with always answer Hillary when polled, so she'll be shocked when Jill Stein gets it.
 
What happened to all the Bernie supporters, Hispanics, African Americans, and women that were going to flock to Trump?
What happened to all the Bernout supporters who said Hitlery was a establishment puppet candidate for the 1%, are they going against their word?

No, we're just screwing with their polls because they allowed themselves to be used to rig it for Hillary. The polling companies won't make as much in the future if their polls are unreliable.
 
When anyone looks closer at usually the very last page of the poll showing how many people voted and their party identification.
Now the following article without proof made this statement:

The fact is there just are more Democrats out there than Republicans,
and this has largely been the case at least since the New Deal.

And by the way... THIS IS TRUE!!!

But the article goes on to PROVE that it is a 6% advantage and again their justification was their
above statement. BUT IS THAT TRUE???
HuffPollster, which aggregates hundreds of polls across nearly 100 different pollsters, finds that averaging across 2016 polls, 34.8 percent of Americans identify as Democrats and 28.7 percent identify as Republicans—roughly a six-point Democratic advantage. This is very similar to the CBS poll’s partisan composition. Democrats maintain this advantage even among the national electorate. HuffPollster finds on average that among likely voters 38 percent are Democrats and 32.9 percent are Republicans—a 5.1-point Democratic advantage.
No, The Polls Aren’t Biased. Clinton Really Is Leading Trump

Gallup says differently.
Gallup says 29% called themselves Democrats...versus GOP which is 26%
3% difference...not the SIX POINTS that the above article states.
View attachment 85977
Democratic, Republican Identification Near Historical Lows

The point is the pollsters are automatically counting at least 3% more Democrats then
the reality i.e. that there are 3% more Democrats then GOP.

This is why most people who understands the bias of polling and especially how people "REALLY"
feel when they get behind the voting booth curtain... say GREAT! I'm in favor of showing Trump behind
because as it was with Truman, BREXIT and most events where the public really wants something that
the MSM and idiots think they shouldn't THEY prove the pollsters/pundits WRONG!!!

Gallup is one of the few pollsters that got 2012 wrong.

Obama won by less 4% which is what Gallup is showing there are just 3% more Demos then GOP.
Barack Obama had nearly 10 million fewer votes last night than in 2008.
But it was enough to win.
Fewer Republicans turned out to vote for Mitt Romney
Mitt won only 57 million votes.

In 2008 John McCain had nearly 60 million votes.
 
In October 2012, The ABC Wash Post poll found Obama ahead by 3 points. He won by 3.9 points.

They polled 35% Democrats and 29% Republicans.

If they had evened that out, for some reason, they would have gotten that poll wrong.
 
The polls are what they are

They do not set out to poll 50 Democrats and 50 Republicans
What they do is select a random sample and during the course of the poll will ask about party affiliation
It may come out to be 60 said Democrat and 40 said Republican. It does not mean the poll is skewed


Of course the poll is skewed!
Ask 60 democrats if you support Hillary they say yes! Ask 40 GOP they may say YES.
Overall 60% of those asked favor Hillary..! Pretty damn skewed if you ask me!

What would you say if they numbers would be reversed? I am honest enough to say let's ask 50 Democrats and 50 GOP.
Are you and the pollster afraid to have a level playing field!

Are you that idiotic?

You think a poll is not valid unless you ask 50 Trump voters and 50 Hillary voters?

They call 100 people at random without knowing their political affiliation.
 

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