Sweden's Results - Can we trust the Covid 19 models.

[Sun Devil 92]

Why the fuck did this get moved.

This was posted because of the political ranting and ravings of the left wing asses who want to kill the economy and instigate "favorable changes".

Sweden is showing their tactics are unneessary.

IT is a political thread.

 

[XponentialChaos]

Sweden's results:

Sweden has the 8th highest death rate. Their death rate is 7 times higher than their nearest neighbors.

Their infection rate is also much higher and doesn't appear to be slowing down yet.



View attachment 336310

But what will these charts look like a year from now? Norway and Finland can't stay closed forever. What happens when they start opening back up?

We don't know. I think Sweden will still have a higher death rate and infection rate a year from now.

Do you disagree?

Since they are already showing level or downward trends, there is no reason to expect this.

If they totally blow off what they are doing now (they do have precautions in place), then probably.

They're trending higher than their neighbors. I posted the graphs earlier.

 

[Sun Devil 92]

Just about anything is possible, but I highly doubt that scenario happens.

A year from now, I expect to see a higher death rate in Sweden than their neighbors.

There is nothing scientific to base that conclusion on. Without a vaccine or cure the only way to prevent that result is to stay closed, which they can't realistically do.

They never did.

And they look no worse than a lot of other countries.

Their neibhbors look very good compared to Sweden. But the overall numbers are not that traumatic.

 

[Sun Devil 92]

Sweden's results:

Sweden has the 8th highest death rate. Their death rate is 7 times higher than their nearest neighbors.

Their infection rate is also much higher and doesn't appear to be slowing down yet.



View attachment 336310

But what will these charts look like a year from now? Norway and Finland can't stay closed forever. What happens when they start opening back up?

We don't know. I think Sweden will still have a higher death rate and infection rate a year from now.

Do you disagree?

Since they are already showing level or downward trends, there is no reason to expect this.

If they totally blow off what they are doing now (they do have precautions in place), then probably.

They're trending higher than their neighbors. I posted the graphs earlier.

Sweden's results:

Sweden has the 8th highest death rate. Their death rate is 7 times higher than their nearest neighbors.

Their infection rate is also much higher and doesn't appear to be slowing down yet.



View attachment 336310

But what will these charts look like a year from now? Norway and Finland can't stay closed forever. What happens when they start opening back up?

We don't know. I think Sweden will still have a higher death rate and infection rate a year from now.

Do you disagree?

Since they are already showing level or downward trends, there is no reason to expect this.

If they totally blow off what they are doing now (they do have precautions in place), then probably.

They're trending higher than their neighbors. I posted the graphs earlier.

They are adding cases, but there is no acceleration (just the opposite). As cases resolve, they won't be replaced.

 

[XponentialChaos]

Just about anything is possible, but I highly doubt that scenario happens.

A year from now, I expect to see a higher death rate in Sweden than their neighbors.

There is nothing scientific to base that conclusion on. Without a vaccine or cure the only way to prevent that result is to stay closed, which they can't realistically do.

More people who have the virus will spread the virus to more people. Sweden has a higher infection rate, so I think it's reasonable to conclude that they'll spread the virus more and kill more people.

Of course, that's just my opinion. We can't know what's going to happen. But, again, I expect to see a higher death rate in Sweden compared to their neighbors one year from now. You have no scientific basis for thinking otherwise.

 

[XponentialChaos]

They're trending higher than their neighbors. I posted the graphs earlier.

They are adding cases, but there is no acceleration (just the opposite). As cases resolve, they won't be replaced.

Like I said, they're still trending higher than their neighbors.

 

[Sun Devil 92]

They're trending higher than their neighbors. I posted the graphs earlier.

They are adding cases, but there is no acceleration (just the opposite). As cases resolve, they won't be replaced.

Like I said, they're still trending higher than their neighbors.

View attachment 336450

Whatever.

 

[XponentialChaos]

They're trending higher than their neighbors. I posted the graphs earlier.

They are adding cases, but there is no acceleration (just the opposite). As cases resolve, they won't be replaced.

Like I said, they're still trending higher than their neighbors.

View attachment 336450

Whatever.

What part of that is incorrect? It's pretty clear from looking at the graphs.

 

[Sun Devil 92]

They're trending higher than their neighbors. I posted the graphs earlier.

They are adding cases, but there is no acceleration (just the opposite). As cases resolve, they won't be replaced.

Like I said, they're still trending higher than their neighbors.

View attachment 336450

Whatever.

What part of that is incorrect? It's pretty clear from looking at the graphs.

Since it has no bearing on the original question, it does not deserve a response.

 

[XponentialChaos]

They're trending higher than their neighbors. I posted the graphs earlier.

They are adding cases, but there is no acceleration (just the opposite). As cases resolve, they won't be replaced.

Like I said, they're still trending higher than their neighbors.

View attachment 336450

Whatever.

What part of that is incorrect? It's pretty clear from looking at the graphs.

Since it has no bearing on the original question, it does not deserve a response.

Alright then.

Well Sweden's results are still worse than their neighbors.

Respond to that or don't. Doesn't matter. It's still true.

See ya.

 

[XponentialChaos]

Finland deaths today: 6
Norway deaths today: 0
Sweden deaths today: 117

 

[MarathonMike]

Well, yes.....

Here we have a look at how Sweden was supposed to be the Typhoid Marry of Corona.

The models predicted all kinds of apacolypic bullshit.....that never happened.

The number of patients in ICU has been fairly stable around 500-550 since mid-April. This means that capacity was never exceeded. At this moment, when the models suggested that Sweden would have 30 to 40 patients fighting over every available ICU bed, there is spare capacity in beds, equipment and personnel of around 30 percent (partly as a result of a doubling of the pre-pandemic capacity).

Gardner et al predicted that Sweden would have 82,000 COVID-19 deaths by July 1. That implies around 1,000 deaths every day since the paper was published in mid-April. However, the total number of Swedish COVID-19 deaths at the time of writing is 3,313.

One reason why the models failed is that they — just like most countries’ politicians — underestimated how millions of people spontaneously adapt to new circumstances. They only thought in terms of lockdowns vs business as usual, but failed to consider a third option: that people engage in social distancing voluntarily when they realize lives are at stake and when authorities recommend them to do so.

Can we trust COVID modeling?

At last we’re getting a debate about COVID-19 modeling. A look under the hood of the famous Imperial College study revealed twisted and tangled code

spectator.us

************************

Sweden is doing what Sweden wants to do.

We will all be there soon enough.

IMO the tragedy of the Covid-19 models was the failure of the modelers to be honest about the fallibility of their models. There were key assumptions that all had to be correct for the models to be even somewhat accurate. We now know their assumptions were way off and thus their results were off by orders of magnitude. The predictions of MILLIONS of deaths should have had very strong caveats with huge error bounds. This is the danger of bowing down to "experts" because as they have shown us time and again, they are often wrong. The world has paid a massive price for the arrogance of "experts".