ShockedCanadian, the “China threat” and Trump

[Tom Paine 1949]

USMB member shockedcanadian is famous (or infamous) on USMB for his repeated calls for an intensified Cold War against China. He sees China as an existential threat to the West. But he doesn’t even seem to consider if his call, for example, for the U.S. to “be strong” on Taiwan crosses China’s long expressed “red line” regarding the island. He never asks if U.S. provocations could lead to “hot war.” He has recently said that the whole D.C. “security state” and Foreign Policy “Establishment” and especially the Democrats under Biden are ... “China First” !!!

The “China First” charge is just demagogic lame duck Trumpster hysteria, but it does reflect bipartisan illusions. shockedcanadian doesn’t at all understand that elite security state advisors of the American empire were opposed to Trump because they believe his “America First” policies were ultimately inadequate to defending, protecting, and extending the U.S.-dominant world capitalist empire — which has in fact further unraveled under Trump, as has our country itself.

Trump represented laughable incompetence and scapegoating, political decline and chaos domestically. He was for go-it-alone posturing internationally, imposing unilateral tariffs on allies. His many unnecessary unilaterally imposed tariffs, secondary and high-handed SWIFT boycotts of bank transfers, sanctioning of German firms that with German government support worked on NordStream2 — these all angered the EU.

Anger over such treatment led the Europeans to agree to a new trade agreement with China. President-Elect Biden’s request they delay signing onto this trade agreement was rejected. The Chinese actually increased their concessions to Europe on trade to get this agreement before Biden became President, because it feared Biden might win Europe over to jointly confront China on trade issues under Biden. They wanted to take advantage of the Trump Administration’s chaotic policies while they still could.

After the pathetic Trump pseudo-coup attempt, Europe now suspects any American capacity to lead. Taiwan too must wonder how the U.S. can possibly defend it ... when it cannot even defend its own Congress building from a mob of rightwing nuts.

Trump was happy with XiJinping and sought his help in getting re-elected — until Covid-19 hit and he decided a scapegoating campaign against China was necessary to rally his base. In fact, foreign policy elites were already moving toward a fundamental hardening in attitudes toward China before Trump’s 2016 election.

The Establishment had earlier taken a hard “new Cold War” line against Russia, since Putin showed resistance to U.S. unipolar world dominance & hostility to Russia’s fundamental interests.

The idea that the Biden Administration will be “pro-China” is as ridiculous as that it is pro-Russia. The problem now is there is a deep historic bipartisan consensus that the U.S. can somehow hold back the rise of a growing China. China may very well never adopt Western-style governing institutions, especially now that they see what chaos our institutions have produced under Trump.

China is authoritarian and must be strategically dealt with, but it does not represent an existential threat to the world or the U.S. It does not act as, nor can it be dealt with as, was Nazi Germany or Japan. Nor can it be expected to collapse as did the USSR.

U.S. ideological obsessions, our unwillingness to radically reform our own corporate-dominant society, our belief that our present democratic governing system and manner of selecting leadership are “exceptional” and superior — here are the real domestic problems that need to be addressed. Trump’s clownish misleadership and narcissism were only symptomatic of the West’s growing inability to deal with larger reality.

p.s.

These two articles show how narrow are the perspectives of those who believe the U.S. “being strong” on Taiwan or against China is the answer to U.S. decline in the world or at home:

America's Defining Problem in 2021 Isn't China: It's America | The American Conservative

China’s Real Threat Is to America’s Ruling Ideology

 

[JustAGuy1]

Your ignorance is duly noted.

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

As with the ‘red scare’ of the 50s, the ‘China threat’ is likewise a partisan contrivance intended to deflect from Trump’s many failures and baselessly vilify Trump’s political opponents.

“After the pathetic Trump pseudo-coup attempt, Europe now suspects even American capacity to lead.” ibid

This is among the more disastrous of Trump’s failures.

 

[MarathonMike]

ShockedCanadian is spot on and you are a China apologist who doesn't understand the magnitude of the threat they pose to the US and the world. They made a strategic decision in early 2020 to NOT contain a rapidly spreading within their borders and instead make sure that the world shared the pain. They have very likely murdered Dr. Ai Fen who bravely spoke out against the virus cover-up and now they blame Europe and US frozen foods for the virus.

 

[shockedcanadian]

USMB member shockedcanadian is famous (or infamous) on USMB for his repeated calls for an intensified Cold War against China. He sees China as an existential threat to the West. But he doesn’t even seem to consider if his call, for example, for the U.S. to “be strong” on Taiwan crosses China’s long expressed “red line” regarding the island. He never asks if U.S. provocations could lead to “hot war.” He has recently said that the whole D.C. “security state” and Foreign Policy “Establishment” and especially the Democrats under Biden are ... “China First” !!!

The “China First” charge is just demagogic lame duck Trumpster hysteria, but it does reflect bipartisan illusions. shockedcanadian doesn’t at all understand that elite security state advisors of the American empire were opposed to Trump because they believe his “America First” policies were ultimately inadequate to defending, protecting, and extending the U.S.-dominant world capitalist empire — which has in fact further unraveled under Trump, as has our country itself.

Trump represented laughable incompetence and scapegoating, political decline and chaos domestically. He was for go-it-alone posturing internationally, imposing unilateral tariffs on allies. His many unnecessary unilaterally imposed tariffs, secondary and high-handed SWIFT boycotts of bank transfers, sanctioning of German firms that with German government support worked on NordStream2 — these all angered the EU.

Anger over such treatment led the Europeans to agree to a new trade agreement with China. President-Elect Biden’s request they delay signing onto this trade agreement was rejected. The Chinese actually increased their concessions to Europe on trade to get this agreement before Biden became President, because it feared Biden might win Europe over to jointly confront China on trade issues under Biden. They wanted to take advantage of the Trump Administration’s chaotic policies while they still could.

After the pathetic Trump pseudo-coup attempt, Europe now suspects any American capacity to lead. Taiwan too must wonder how the U.S. can possibly defend it ... when it cannot even defend its own Congress building from a mob of rightwing nuts.

Trump was happy with XiJinping and sought his help in getting re-elected — until Covid-19 hit and he decided a scapegoating campaign against China was necessary to rally his base. In fact, foreign policy elites were already moving toward a fundamental hardening in attitudes toward China before Trump’s 2016 election.

The Establishment had earlier taken a hard “new Cold War” line against Russia, since Putin showed resistance to U.S. unipolar world dominance & hostility to Russia’s fundamental interests.

The idea that the Biden Administration will be “pro-China” is as ridiculous as that it is pro-Russia. The problem now is there is a deep historic bipartisan consensus that the U.S. can somehow hold back the rise of a growing China. China may very well never adopt Western-style governing institutions, especially now that they see what chaos our institutions have produced under Trump.

China is authoritarian and must be strategically dealt with, but it does not represent an existential threat to the world or the U.S. It does not act as, nor can it be dealt with as, was Nazi Germany or Japan. Nor can it be expected to collapse as did the USSR.

U.S. ideological obsessions, our unwillingness to radically reform our own corporate-dominant society, our belief that our present democratic governing system and manner of selecting leadership are “exceptional” and superior — here are the real domestic problems that need to be addressed. Trump’s clownish misleadership and narcissism were only symptomatic of the West’s growing inability to deal with larger reality.

p.s.

These two articles show how narrow are the perspectives of those who believe the U.S. “being strong” on Taiwan or against China is the answer to U.S. decline in the world or at home:

America's Defining Problem in 2021 Isn't China: It's America | The American Conservative

China’s Real Threat Is to America’s Ruling Ideology

Thank you for the mention.

This comment is your most egregious and isolated, almost on it's own; lends suspect to your entire thesis:

In fact, foreign policy elites were already moving toward a fundamental hardening in attitudes toward China before Trump’s 2016 election.

I watched all the debates in the 2016 election. Dem and GOP. I listened closely to the positions of candidates. I think Rubio was the only one outside of Trump who even mentioned China in any negative fashion.

That was 16 candidates, plus two for the Dems, who just 4 years ago, after decades of Communist expansion and influence, who didn't have the courage and donor support to call out China. In fact, Hillary wanted MORE with China if I recall and multiple GOP said "tariffs won't work" and scoffed at Trump interfering the "free market" (free to whom exactly? The CIA agents who went dark?).

No politician in all of the West, let alone America, has called out China. Trump is it. The only one speaking the truth about the Cold War that elites and ballroom politicians pretend didn't exist.

This attitude and lack of overt and public calling out is why Germany did what they did in 1939. It's why only Churchill was calling them out, and even his own government and the Royal Family didn't want him. They were wise enough and patriotic enough to understand however, that he and his policies were needed. This can't be said for so many in the West.

The world has been hit with the Wuhan Virus, who in the world outside of Trump and his supporters have even called them out? Please, name these so-called "elites" who have been enlightened.

They don't exist. Money is the root of THEIR evil and the Communist Government of China knows it.

Europe had NOT signed the deal because of pressure from Trump. Four years they held on. They got the UK to ban 5G (Canada still hasn't). They pushed for changes with the relationship. The deal is now rapidly signed.

Now you want me to believe that Europe signed this agreement, in spite of Bidens so-called disagreement, because the Commies gave a sweetener or two?

I may be stupid, but I'm not a moron (I don't think).

 

[shockedcanadian]

As with the ‘red scare’ of the 50s, the ‘China threat’ is likewise a partisan contrivance intended to deflect from Trump’s many failures and baselessly vilify Trump’s political opponents.

“After the pathetic Trump pseudo-coup attempt, Europe now suspects even American capacity to lead.” ibid

This is among the more disastrous of Trump’s failures.

This "scare" goes back to Bush Sr. Ramped up during Clinton years (ask Woosley about his inability to get Clinton to even listen to him. He outright ignored his warnings on China. Called the CIA out as you are calling the "red scare" out).

The danger has escalated every year since China got into the WTO. It was at that moment, they knew they would crush the West, through divide and conquer, bribing and buying all the political and business whores they could find.

 

[Notaradical60]

I made a prediction in early 2020 4 actually and have watched them coming to fruition with the rise of The left s political gains and appeasement. 1 Hong kong would return to Chinese control under Biden. 2. Taiwan would be taken back by China within the 4 year term of Joe Biden. 3. Iran would Obtain a Thermo nuclear weapon ( working un checked for 4 years it will). 4> Joe Biden will not be in office more than 6 mos. death, or 25th amendment due to dementia (pending) Hope I'm wrong but all are lookin likely.

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

USMB member shockedcanadian is famous (or infamous) on USMB for his repeated calls for an intensified Cold War against China. He sees China as an existential threat to the West. But he doesn’t even seem to consider if his call, for example, for the U.S. to “be strong” on Taiwan crosses China’s long expressed “red line” regarding the island. He never asks if U.S. provocations could lead to “hot war.” He has recently said that the whole D.C. “security state” and Foreign Policy “Establishment” and especially the Democrats under Biden are ... “China First” !!!

The “China First” charge is just demagogic lame duck Trumpster hysteria, but it does reflect bipartisan illusions. shockedcanadian doesn’t at all understand that elite security state advisors of the American empire were opposed to Trump because they believe his “America First” policies were ultimately inadequate to defending, protecting, and extending the U.S.-dominant world capitalist empire — which has in fact further unraveled under Trump, as has our country itself.

Trump represented laughable incompetence and scapegoating, political decline and chaos domestically. He was for go-it-alone posturing internationally, imposing unilateral tariffs on allies. His many unnecessary unilaterally imposed tariffs, secondary and high-handed SWIFT boycotts of bank transfers, sanctioning of German firms that with German government support worked on NordStream2 — these all angered the EU.

Anger over such treatment led the Europeans to agree to a new trade agreement with China. President-Elect Biden’s request they delay signing onto this trade agreement was rejected. The Chinese actually increased their concessions to Europe on trade to get this agreement before Biden became President, because it feared Biden might win Europe over to jointly confront China on trade issues under Biden. They wanted to take advantage of the Trump Administration’s chaotic policies while they still could.

After the pathetic Trump pseudo-coup attempt, Europe now suspects any American capacity to lead. Taiwan too must wonder how the U.S. can possibly defend it ... when it cannot even defend its own Congress building from a mob of rightwing nuts.

Trump was happy with XiJinping and sought his help in getting re-elected — until Covid-19 hit and he decided a scapegoating campaign against China was necessary to rally his base. In fact, foreign policy elites were already moving toward a fundamental hardening in attitudes toward China before Trump’s 2016 election.

The Establishment had earlier taken a hard “new Cold War” line against Russia, since Putin showed resistance to U.S. unipolar world dominance & hostility to Russia’s fundamental interests.

The idea that the Biden Administration will be “pro-China” is as ridiculous as that it is pro-Russia. The problem now is there is a deep historic bipartisan consensus that the U.S. can somehow hold back the rise of a growing China. China may very well never adopt Western-style governing institutions, especially now that they see what chaos our institutions have produced under Trump.

China is authoritarian and must be strategically dealt with, but it does not represent an existential threat to the world or the U.S. It does not act as, nor can it be dealt with as, was Nazi Germany or Japan. Nor can it be expected to collapse as did the USSR.

U.S. ideological obsessions, our unwillingness to radically reform our own corporate-dominant society, our belief that our present democratic governing system and manner of selecting leadership are “exceptional” and superior — here are the real domestic problems that need to be addressed. Trump’s clownish misleadership and narcissism were only symptomatic of the West’s growing inability to deal with larger reality.

p.s.

These two articles show how narrow are the perspectives of those who believe the U.S. “being strong” on Taiwan or against China is the answer to U.S. decline in the world or at home:

America's Defining Problem in 2021 Isn't China: It's America | The American Conservative

China’s Real Threat Is to America’s Ruling Ideology

Thank you for the mention.

This comment is your most egregious and isolated, almost on it's own; lends suspect to your entire thesis:

In fact, foreign policy elites were already moving toward a fundamental hardening in attitudes toward China before Trump’s 2016 election.

I watched all the debates in the 2016 election. Dem and GOP. I listened closely to the positions of candidates. I think Rubio was the only one outside of Trump who even mentioned China in any negative fashion.

That was 16 candidates, plus two for the Dems, who just 4 years ago, after decades of Communist expansion and influence, who didn't have the courage and donor support to call out China. In fact, Hillary wanted MORE with China if I recall and multiple GOP said "tariffs won't work" and scoffed at Trump interfering the "free market" (free to whom exactly? The CIA agents who went dark?).

No politician in all of the West, let alone America, has called out China. Trump is it. The only one speaking the truth about the Cold War that elites and ballroom politicians pretend didn't exist.

This attitude and lack of overt and public calling out is why Germany did what they did in 1939. It's why only Churchill was calling them out, and even his own government and the Royal Family didn't want him. They were wise enough and patriotic enough to understand however, that he and his policies were needed. This can't be said for so many in the West.

The world has been hit with the Wuhan Virus, who in the world outside of Trump and his supporters have even called them out? Please, name these so-called "elites" who have been enlightened.

They don't exist. Money is the root of THEIR evil and the Communist Government of China knows it.

Europe had NOT signed the deal because of pressure from Trump. Four years they held on. They got the UK to ban 5G (Canada still hasn't). They pushed for changes with the relationship. The deal is now rapidly signed.

Now you want me to believe that Europe signed this agreement, in spite of Bidens so-called disagreement, because the Commies gave a sweetener or two?

I may be stupid, but I'm not a moron (I don't think).

I don’t at all think you are a moron, or stupid, to be concerned that the strongest national economy in the world will soon be China’s. China is ruled by a corrupt, authoritarian one-party dictatorship without our traditional Western respect for “individual rights.” It is today very nationalist and clearly wishes to replace the U.S. as “hegemon” in East Asia.

I do think you stupidly extrapolate from this and other partisan political obsessions many wrong conclusions. My article was very wide-ranging and fairly clear in its critique of bipartisan U.S. presumptions. Yet you chose to isolate and counter perhaps the least important aspect of my argument, where I mentioned that “foreign policy elites were already moving toward a fundamental hardening in attitudes toward China before Trump’s 2016 election.”

You ignore all my fundamental arguments, which I won’t repeat here. You want to talk about individual politicians, not about changing bipartisan consensus on Wall Street and among security state and foreign policy elites, because you are obsessed with an individual politician, Donald Trump, whom you think had groundbreaking revelations about fighting China.

But great power and “grand strategy” political changes don’t come about because of the “people’s will,” and very rarely are influenced by voting particular politicians into office. That is not why we got into two World Wars, a Great Depression, fought the Cold War with the USSR, went to Vietnam, or now are changing our policy toward China. These are all caused by geo-political and economic factors, mediated via ideological and even cultural factors.

Presumably you have heard of the “Thucydides Trap” and are at least a little familiar with changes in Sinologist’s views on the one hand, and U.S. policy debates since the Bush ‘44 administration? You must be aware of the attempt to balance our strategy in the Middle East to free up military and other forces to “pivot to Asia” under Obama. I was in China from 2006 to 2014 and studied these changes carefully. I witnessed the increasing complaints coming from foreign Chambers of Commerce in Beijing, and saw up close the changes in China under XiJinping.
I also followed the many larger debates over grand strategy toward China before the 2016 election. Probably the most important was the one introduced in 2015 by leading voices at the bipartisan Carnegie Endowment foundation think tank, which you can read here:

https://carnegieendowment.org/files/Tellis_Blackwill.pdf

This quickly became bipartisan consensus strategy. Opposing dissenting voices (like this one) went nowhere:

Council on Foreign Relations’ Revising U.S. Grand Strategy Toward China Threatens a New Cold War

The conclusions agreed to were fairly clearly enunciated. Putting them into effect, of course, would require smart leadership and cohesion among allies. The report maintained that China’s grand strategy toward the United States was clear: to replace the United States as the primary strategic actor in Eastern Asia.

Insofar as you want to view Trump’s role as positive or negative in regard to China is up to you. I have differences with the bipartisan consensus view, but I certainly agree with it more than I do with Trump’s utterly irrational conduct toward China. In my opinion Trump’s China policy was opportunist, demagogic, and counterproductive. It was, like his domestic policy, not based in reality or any grand political strategy whatever. But like everything else about Trump, he certainly made it sound tough. Over time, after Covid-19, it became a self-perpetuating and out-of-control mania.

p.s.

As for your argument “Now you want me to believe that Europe signed this agreement, in spite of Bidens so-called disagreement, because the Commies gave a sweetener or two?”

My answer is yes and more. They could only sign the agreement after seven years of discussing because 1) XiJinping personally pushed for concessions to reach a deal before Biden could scratch it. 2) Macron and especially Merkel were fed up with Trump’s disregard of their economic interests and wanted to set down a marker of independence. This is common knowledge in Europe. Biden specifically asked to delay the signing of the agreement until collective discussions with the new U.S. administration could be held. European parliamentary opposition to the agreement is strong and opposition may yet arise sufficient to scuttle the treaties if Biden’s team proves more amenable than Trump toward European interests

 

[shockedcanadian]

USMB member shockedcanadian is famous (or infamous) on USMB for his repeated calls for an intensified Cold War against China. He sees China as an existential threat to the West. But he doesn’t even seem to consider if his call, for example, for the U.S. to “be strong” on Taiwan crosses China’s long expressed “red line” regarding the island. He never asks if U.S. provocations could lead to “hot war.” He has recently said that the whole D.C. “security state” and Foreign Policy “Establishment” and especially the Democrats under Biden are ... “China First” !!!

The “China First” charge is just demagogic lame duck Trumpster hysteria, but it does reflect bipartisan illusions. shockedcanadian doesn’t at all understand that elite security state advisors of the American empire were opposed to Trump because they believe his “America First” policies were ultimately inadequate to defending, protecting, and extending the U.S.-dominant world capitalist empire — which has in fact further unraveled under Trump, as has our country itself.

Trump represented laughable incompetence and scapegoating, political decline and chaos domestically. He was for go-it-alone posturing internationally, imposing unilateral tariffs on allies. His many unnecessary unilaterally imposed tariffs, secondary and high-handed SWIFT boycotts of bank transfers, sanctioning of German firms that with German government support worked on NordStream2 — these all angered the EU.

Anger over such treatment led the Europeans to agree to a new trade agreement with China. President-Elect Biden’s request they delay signing onto this trade agreement was rejected. The Chinese actually increased their concessions to Europe on trade to get this agreement before Biden became President, because it feared Biden might win Europe over to jointly confront China on trade issues under Biden. They wanted to take advantage of the Trump Administration’s chaotic policies while they still could.

After the pathetic Trump pseudo-coup attempt, Europe now suspects any American capacity to lead. Taiwan too must wonder how the U.S. can possibly defend it ... when it cannot even defend its own Congress building from a mob of rightwing nuts.

Trump was happy with XiJinping and sought his help in getting re-elected — until Covid-19 hit and he decided a scapegoating campaign against China was necessary to rally his base. In fact, foreign policy elites were already moving toward a fundamental hardening in attitudes toward China before Trump’s 2016 election.

The Establishment had earlier taken a hard “new Cold War” line against Russia, since Putin showed resistance to U.S. unipolar world dominance & hostility to Russia’s fundamental interests.

The idea that the Biden Administration will be “pro-China” is as ridiculous as that it is pro-Russia. The problem now is there is a deep historic bipartisan consensus that the U.S. can somehow hold back the rise of a growing China. China may very well never adopt Western-style governing institutions, especially now that they see what chaos our institutions have produced under Trump.

China is authoritarian and must be strategically dealt with, but it does not represent an existential threat to the world or the U.S. It does not act as, nor can it be dealt with as, was Nazi Germany or Japan. Nor can it be expected to collapse as did the USSR.

U.S. ideological obsessions, our unwillingness to radically reform our own corporate-dominant society, our belief that our present democratic governing system and manner of selecting leadership are “exceptional” and superior — here are the real domestic problems that need to be addressed. Trump’s clownish misleadership and narcissism were only symptomatic of the West’s growing inability to deal with larger reality.

p.s.

These two articles show how narrow are the perspectives of those who believe the U.S. “being strong” on Taiwan or against China is the answer to U.S. decline in the world or at home:

America's Defining Problem in 2021 Isn't China: It's America | The American Conservative

China’s Real Threat Is to America’s Ruling Ideology

Thank you for the mention.

This comment is your most egregious and isolated, almost on it's own; lends suspect to your entire thesis:

In fact, foreign policy elites were already moving toward a fundamental hardening in attitudes toward China before Trump’s 2016 election.

I watched all the debates in the 2016 election. Dem and GOP. I listened closely to the positions of candidates. I think Rubio was the only one outside of Trump who even mentioned China in any negative fashion.

That was 16 candidates, plus two for the Dems, who just 4 years ago, after decades of Communist expansion and influence, who didn't have the courage and donor support to call out China. In fact, Hillary wanted MORE with China if I recall and multiple GOP said "tariffs won't work" and scoffed at Trump interfering the "free market" (free to whom exactly? The CIA agents who went dark?).

No politician in all of the West, let alone America, has called out China. Trump is it. The only one speaking the truth about the Cold War that elites and ballroom politicians pretend didn't exist.

This attitude and lack of overt and public calling out is why Germany did what they did in 1939. It's why only Churchill was calling them out, and even his own government and the Royal Family didn't want him. They were wise enough and patriotic enough to understand however, that he and his policies were needed. This can't be said for so many in the West.

The world has been hit with the Wuhan Virus, who in the world outside of Trump and his supporters have even called them out? Please, name these so-called "elites" who have been enlightened.

They don't exist. Money is the root of THEIR evil and the Communist Government of China knows it.

Europe had NOT signed the deal because of pressure from Trump. Four years they held on. They got the UK to ban 5G (Canada still hasn't). They pushed for changes with the relationship. The deal is now rapidly signed.

Now you want me to believe that Europe signed this agreement, in spite of Bidens so-called disagreement, because the Commies gave a sweetener or two?

I may be stupid, but I'm not a moron (I don't think).

I don’t at all think you are a moron, or stupid, to be concerned that the strongest national economy in the world will soon be China’s. China is ruled by a corrupt, authoritarian one-party dictatorship without our traditional Western respect for “individual rights.” It is today very nationalist and clearly wishes to replace the U.S. as “hegemon” in East Asia.

I do think you stupidly extrapolate from this and other partisan political obsessions many wrong conclusions. My article was very wide-ranging and fairly clear in its critique of bipartisan U.S. presumptions. Yet you chose to isolate and counter perhaps the least important aspect of my argument, where I mentioned that “foreign policy elites were already moving toward a fundamental hardening in attitudes toward China before Trump’s 2016 election.”

You ignore all my fundamental arguments, which I won’t repeat here. You want to talk about individual politicians, not about changing bipartisan consensus on Wall Street and among security state and foreign policy elites, because you are obsessed with an individual politician, Donald Trump, whom you think had groundbreaking revelations about fighting China.

But great power and “grand strategy” political changes don’t come about because of the “people’s will,” and very rarely are influenced by voting particular politicians into office. That is not why we got into two World Wars, a Great Depression, fought the Cold War with the USSR, went to Vietnam, or now are changing our policy toward China. These are all caused by geo-political and economic factors, mediated via ideological and even cultural factors.

Presumably you have heard of the “Thucydides Trap” and are at least a little familiar with changes in Sinologist’s views on the one hand, and U.S. policy debates since the Bush ‘44 administration? You must be aware of the attempt to balance our strategy in the Middle East to free up military and other forces to “pivot to Asia” under Obama. I was in China from 2006 to 2014 and studied these changes carefully. I witnessed the increasing complaints coming from foreign Chambers of Commerce in Beijing, and saw up close the changes in China under XiJinping.
I also followed the many larger debates over grand strategy toward China before the 2016 election. Probably the most important was the one introduced in 2015 by leading voices at the bipartisan Carnegie Endowment foundation think tank, which you can read here:

https://carnegieendowment.org/files/Tellis_Blackwill.pdf

This quickly became bipartisan consensus strategy. Opposing dissenting voices (like this one) went nowhere:

Council on Foreign Relations’ Revising U.S. Grand Strategy Toward China Threatens a New Cold War

The conclusions agreed to were fairly clearly enunciated. Putting them into effect, of course, would require smart leadership and cohesion among allies. The report maintained that China’s grand strategy toward the United States was clear: to replace the United States as the primary strategic actor in Eastern Asia.

Insofar as you want to view Trump’s role as positive or negative in regard to China is up to you. I have differences with the bipartisan consensus view, but I certainly agree with it more than I do with Trump’s utterly irrational conduct toward China. In my opinion Trump’s China policy was opportunist, demagogic, and counterproductive. It was, like his domestic policy, not based in reality or any grand political strategy whatever. But like everything else about Trump, he certainly made it sound tough. Over time, after Covid-19, it became a self-perpetuating and out-of-control mania.

p.s.

As for your argument “Now you want me to believe that Europe signed this agreement, in spite of Bidens so-called disagreement, because the Commies gave a sweetener or two?”

My answer is yes and more. They could only sign the agreement after seven years of discussing because 1) XiJinping personally pushed for concessions to reach a deal before Biden could scratch it. 2) Macron and especially Merkel were fed up with Trump’s disregard of their economic interests and wanted to set down a marker of independence. This is common knowledge in Europe. Biden specifically asked to delay the signing of the agreement until collective discussions with the new U.S. administration could be held. European parliamentary opposition to the agreement is strong and opposition may yet arise sufficient to scuttle the treaties if Biden’s team proves more amenable than Trump toward European interests

Well, the last sentence I agree with. Except there is great potential that this is going to go through because of Europes anemic growth rates and desperation to get into full throttle since the Wuhan Virus.

There is also the position that E.U will not face any consequences for making a deal. Trump made it painful for nations to not operate properly. Be it being called out or threats of tariffs. It may seem neanderthal, but it works precisely because he has followed through.

Now, I don't know what his second term would have brought, I do know his unpredictability was critical to pushing back against China. They, like many politicians, were on egg shells when dealing with him. That is the type of uncertainty, coupled with quiet aggressive actions (such as carriers in near Taiwan or offensive hacking against Chinese interests) that put President Xi back on his heels.

I pray this continues, but I have many doubts that it will. I imagine President Xi and his team are quite comfortable now. They like predictable, if only for the reason that their spies in the West (and there are plenty of them) can get intel on what is coming down the pipe.

This is probably the same reason Putin was so bold as to go into Crimea. He knew what Obamas admin, thought and what their reaction and fears were. If courage in men is lacking, this is the result in a world in which dictators and sadists are exploiting the world for their benefit.

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

This is probably the same reason Putin was so bold as to go into Crimea. He knew what Obamas admin, thought and what their reaction and fears were. If courage in men is lacking, this is the result in a world in which dictators and sadists are exploiting the world for their benefit.

Well, it’s not on the topic of China, but you are again way off the reservation ... this time on the Crimea question. The Obama administration and the CIA stupidly provoked a color revolution in the Ukraine and thought they could steal all of Crimea and the Black Sea oil/gas and navigation rights in the process. The overwhelmingly Russian-speaking Crimeans were of a different opinion, as of course were the Russian Federation’s citizens. The whole adventure was madness. Russia’s “red line” was crossed, and the Ukraine is the worse for all of this. Putin was right to respond as he did to the aggressive U.S. policy on Russia’s crucial Southern border, and to protect its naval access to the Black Sea & Mediterranean.

p.s.: Trump actually originally correctly seemed to oppose the Obama administration / neo-con policy on the Ukraine and Crimea. That is why Putin was sympathetic to him in 2016. Check this out:

Donald Trump Appears to Back Russia's Annexation of Ukraine's Crimea

The Republican presidential nominee appeared to suggest he’d recognize Russia’s annexation of the Ukrainian territory in 2014.

www.theatlantic.com