San Andreas Won't be the Next Big One

longknife

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Sep 21, 2012
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New-Madrid-Fault-Earthquake-Zone.jpg




More heavily populated than when there were others and buildings not constructed to withstand major quakes. Read more @ A New Madrid Earthquake Is Coming And America Will Be Shaken Like Never Before
 
There are two faults in the US that are far more dangerous than the San Andreas. One is the Cascadia Subduction and the other the New Madrid. Both are due. Interesting times when either lets go.
 
The actual earthquake hazard map is quite different than the one which that panic-blogger presents. It doesn't have New Madrid covering the whole midwest.

4279190_G.jpg
 
There are two faults in the US that are far more dangerous than the San Andreas. One is the Cascadia Subduction and the other the New Madrid. Both are due. Interesting times when either lets go.

Interesting, I knew about the New Madrid, since I live within a few hundred miles of it. I hadn't heard of the other one, thanks for pointing it out.
 
The actual earthquake hazard map is quite different than the one which that panic-blogger presents. It doesn't have New Madrid covering the whole midwest.

4279190_G.jpg
Actually the bloggers map is right on the money when you compare it with the North American Craton and its adjoining masses. Now if you want to discuss probability maps, which is what you posted that is a different story.

North_america_craton_nps.gif


Stress all around the Craton edge have been firing off for some time now...

craton-edge-earthquakes-december-9-2013.jpg

From an article three years ago.. WORLDWIDE EARTHQUAKE SUMMARY: Updated Live, 24/7! - Live Quake Reports Discussions on The Crisis Forums
 
The actual earthquake hazard map is quite different than the one which that panic-blogger presents. It doesn't have New Madrid covering the whole midwest.

4279190_G.jpg
A good map, except it is based on historical data. The problem with that is that the Cascadia Subduction zone has not moved in historical times. That red should extend all the way up to the northern tip of Vancouver Island. And the problem with the New Madrid quakes are that the underlaying strata are mostly flatlaying, and act like a drumhead. So that quake put large waves on the Great Lakes, and shook down the houses on stilts in Florida.

Yes, the buildings in that area are not built to even the most minor of earthquake codes. But that would be government regulation.
 
There are two faults in the US that are far more dangerous than the San Andreas. One is the Cascadia Subduction and the other the New Madrid. Both are due. Interesting times when either lets go.

People who helped close my house in Tenn all looked SHOCKED when I took the Earthquake insurance. EVERYTHING here is brick facade. And the FlaCalTenn compound has a TRAINLOAD of brick on it.

At least it was affordable compared to Cali. One reason I moved from Cali was that I was living about 0.20mi from the San Andreas with NO earthquake coverage. State took it over and screwed it up..
 
The actual earthquake hazard map is quite different than the one which that panic-blogger presents. It doesn't have New Madrid covering the whole midwest.

4279190_G.jpg

Different scales -- different data. The USGS is ESTIMATED accelerations. Not Richter. The blog map shows the extent of 6.8 scale readings in 1895... The actual PROPAGATION of energy will depend on WHERE the accelerations occur.. Don't get all snippy..
 
There are two faults in the US that are far more dangerous than the San Andreas. One is the Cascadia Subduction and the other the New Madrid. Both are due. Interesting times when either lets go.

People who helped close my house in Tenn all looked SHOCKED when I took the Earthquake insurance. EVERYTHING here is brick facade. And the FlaCalTenn compound has a TRAINLOAD of brick on it.

At least it was affordable compared to Cali. One reason I moved from Cali was that I was living about 0.20mi from the San Andreas with NO earthquake coverage. State took it over and screwed it up..
The earthquake insurance or the San Andreas fault?

Yes, a very wise move on your part. The earthquake insurance, that is. May not move in your lifetime, but there is a very definate chance that it may. Best to have some water and food in store, and the ability to cook without natural gas or electricity.
 
There are two faults in the US that are far more dangerous than the San Andreas. One is the Cascadia Subduction and the other the New Madrid. Both are due. Interesting times when either lets go.

People who helped close my house in Tenn all looked SHOCKED when I took the Earthquake insurance. EVERYTHING here is brick facade. And the FlaCalTenn compound has a TRAINLOAD of brick on it.

At least it was affordable compared to Cali. One reason I moved from Cali was that I was living about 0.20mi from the San Andreas with NO earthquake coverage. State took it over and screwed it up..
The earthquake insurance or the San Andreas fault?

Yes, a very wise move on your part. The earthquake insurance, that is. May not move in your lifetime, but there is a very definate chance that it may. Best to have some water and food in store, and the ability to cook without natural gas or electricity.

Cali took over from the insurers. Raised the deductible to more than 20% of the structure. And the premiums were so much higher that people just dropped off in droves. Went from something like 65% home owners enrolled to less than 20% in just a couple years.

The folks who have to worry about disruption are in Western Tenn --- even St Louis for that matter. You wanna see scary shit ---- go here ---- Mississippi River ran backward 1812, maps 30foot uplifts during those quakes. The Mississippi damned itself and created ReelFoot lake and took a new bed.

In Mid Tenn -- our biggest issue is 2 broken ass damns up in Kentucky that will flood the Cumberland and Nashville if they go. And they probably would. They've been tinkering with those for 10 years and not really "fixing" them.. Just like they tinkered with the floodwalls in New Orleans for a couple decades of funding...
 
When I worked for the Forest Service in the Soils lab, we did a study with on thixotropic soils. Part of that involved studies of that quake. We have many places in Portland that have that type of soils. Although I was not directly involved in the study, I kept up on it, and was involved with some of the tests and equipment maintenance.

Those dams sound like the problems with the Fort Peck dam in Montana. During the 2011 floods, the concrete on the spillways was chunking out, and they were worried that the whole dam would fail. But afterwards, they gave the Corps of Engineers just enough money to bring it back to the state it had been. So if get a spring like that again, it could well go. And every dam below it on the Missouri and Mississippi.

People simply don't want to believe that these kinds of things can happen until after they happen.
 
Lack of adequate earthquake building codes in those states will be the biggest part of the disaster.

A minor tremor in VA cracked the Washington obelisk and made my office on 42nd and Lexington sway back and forth like a wave pasding under a small boat, so yeah, we're screwed
 

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