Russian Casualties Mount, Putin Denies

[Liminal]

Victoria Nuland, Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs, testifying before the Senate on Tuesday, stated that sources inside Russia confirm that hundreds of dead Russian soldiers, killed in the Ukraine, have been returned to their families for burial over the past year. The families of the fallen soldiers have all been warned not to discuss or make any public statements about the deaths, if they speak they loose the death benefit. No money. Yet Putin continues to deny that any Russian soldiers have been deployed to the Ukraine.

Victoria Nuland Testimony US Policy Toward Video C-SPAN.org

 

[Tom Sweetnam]

Ms Nuland hasn't bothered verifying anything out of her pie hole since the Nazis murdered their way into power in Ukraine. The woman is as full of shit as a Christmas turkey.

 

[Decus]

Yanukovych had stolen billions from the Ukrainian economy as a crony of Putin. Ukrainians were fed up and kicked his ass to the curb. Russian propaganda seized on the fact that a small percentage of the protestors were extremists and used that to claim Nazis had taken power - what bullshit.

After taking control of Georgian territory earlier, Putin devised a plan to seize Crimea and divide Ukraine. Putin regrets the fall of the old Soviet Empire and is trying to rebuild some semblance of that. His ambitions have hit a few snags however - Central Asia is now firmly in the Chinese camp, Belarus has warned Putin not to threaten their nation or face the consequences, and the large Muslim population presently under Russian control is showing signs of greater militancy.

Internally Russia's inner circle of billionaires (often fortunes built on stolen state assets but sanctioned by Putin) are starting to get nervous - oil prices are going down, international funds and markets are more difficult to access, and Putin has more recently turned on some of Russia's wealthiest, leaving the remaining billionaires to wonder who will be next?

Russia has no industry other than energy (prices going down) and armaments. Sadly average Russians are paying the price for the misguided and callous ambitions of another Russian dictator.

.

 

[RandomVariable]

Yanukovych had stolen billions from the Ukrainian economy as a crony of Putin. Ukrainians were fed up and kicked his ass to the curb. Russian propaganda seized on the fact that a small percentage of the protestors were extremists and used that to claim Nazis had taken power - what bullshit.

After taking control of Georgian territory earlier, Putin devised a plan to seize Crimea and divide Ukraine. Putin regrets the fall of the old Soviet Empire and is trying to rebuild some semblance of that. His ambitions have hit a few snags however - Central Asia is now firmly in the Chinese camp, Belarus has warned Putin not to threaten their nation or face the consequences, and the large Muslim population presently under Russian control is showing signs of greater militancy.

Internally Russia's inner circle of billionaires (often fortunes built on stolen state assets but sanctioned by Putin) are starting to get nervous - oil prices are going down, international funds and markets are more difficult to access, and Putin has more recently turned on some of Russia's wealthiest, leaving the remaining billionaires to wonder who will be next?

Russia has no industry other than energy (prices going down) and armaments. Sadly average Russians are paying the price for the misguided and callous ambitions of another Russian dictator.

.

I would generally agree with what you say but sounds like you are underestimating what Russia can do and what Putin will do. A country with nothing but was a once great empire is a heck of a lot more powerful than a country that has nothing and never had anything.

 

[RandomVariable]

Ms Nuland hasn't bothered verifying anything out of her pie hole since the Nazis murdered their way into power in Ukraine. The woman is as full of shit as a Christmas turkey.

Russia was so worried about the poor ethnic Russians in the Ukraine they prepared all these trucks, newly painted and everything to send into the Ukraine.

Here are the nice aid workers who kindly offered to drive the trucks.

 

[Liminal]

Ms Nuland hasn't bothered verifying anything out of her pie hole since the Nazis murdered their way into power in Ukraine. The woman is as full of shit as a Christmas turkey.

As if you know anything about anything.

 

[RandomVariable]

The Ukranian Ceasefire in Mariupol A Picture of Grief and Tragedy Ricochet
On September 2, I described the celebration of the first day of school – the Day of Learning – in the Ukrainian port city of Mariupol. The beaming schoolgirls wore braided hair embroidered with ribbons and carried bouquets of flowers. First-graders toted paper cones full of candy. The boys were dressed either in suits or in traditional Ukrainian shirts. The Day of Learning in Mariupol was an exciting and joyous event, as it is every year.

School let out early for one student.

Reports of post-ceasefire shelling in Mariupol’s outskirts caused me to worry again about the school children — and then came this photograph in yesterday’s New York Times of grieving parent and grandparents bidding farewell to a young girl, perhaps a third grader, killed by the shelling. She lies in her coffin dressed in the same white blouse and hair ribbons that she wore to her first day of school a week earlier.

 

[whitehall]

A couple of hundred deaths? Russia lost anywhere from 7 million to 13 million soldiers in WW2 and around 300 million civilians. Casualties aren't going to influence the former KGB officer.

 

[RandomVariable]

A couple of hundred deaths? Russia lost anywhere from 7 million to 13 million soldiers in WW2 and around 300 million civilians. Casualties aren't going to influence the former KGB officer.

Times are different. Putin despite what he might want to do strategically and tactically he has to take modern factors into account. That said in a larger conflict Russia would treat the battle space much, much different that Western forces might. If there were 10 enemy fighters in a town Putin would order the town flattened.

 

[Decus]

Yanukovych had stolen billions from the Ukrainian economy as a crony of Putin. Ukrainians were fed up and kicked his ass to the curb. Russian propaganda seized on the fact that a small percentage of the protestors were extremists and used that to claim Nazis had taken power - what bullshit.

After taking control of Georgian territory earlier, Putin devised a plan to seize Crimea and divide Ukraine. Putin regrets the fall of the old Soviet Empire and is trying to rebuild some semblance of that. His ambitions have hit a few snags however - Central Asia is now firmly in the Chinese camp, Belarus has warned Putin not to threaten their nation or face the consequences, and the large Muslim population presently under Russian control is showing signs of greater militancy.

Internally Russia's inner circle of billionaires (often fortunes built on stolen state assets but sanctioned by Putin) are starting to get nervous - oil prices are going down, international funds and markets are more difficult to access, and Putin has more recently turned on some of Russia's wealthiest, leaving the remaining billionaires to wonder who will be next?

Russia has no industry other than energy (prices going down) and armaments. Sadly average Russians are paying the price for the misguided and callous ambitions of another Russian dictator.

.

I would generally agree with what you say but sounds like you are underestimating what Russia can do and what Putin will do. A country with nothing but was a once great empire is a heck of a lot more powerful than a country that has nothing and never had anything.

I don't underestimate Putin. There are a number of competing interests that deserve consideration:

In Russia:
- a small but growing middle class that are sick of the endemic corruption plaguing Russia and who could prove disruptive to Putin's continued rule,
- the Russian billionaires who understand that their continued existence is entirely dependent on Putin's "goodwill",
- independence movements like that found in Siberia, the heart of Russia's oil and gas fields. Did you know that some estimates put the number of Chinese living in Siberia at several million? With that much energy so close to China, it may come to pass that the Chinese one day invade Siberia claiming that they need to protect their citizens (the same excuse that Russia so frequently uses to justify its incursions into other countries),
- Muslim self-determination may further test Putin's empire building ambitions. An internal "Afganistan" would require a commitment of considerable military resources to hold on to regions like Chechnya. If you look at where foreign nationals joining ISIS come from, Russia tops the list. Ouch.
- a reliance on imports for everything other than energy and armaments. Russia still has difficulty meeting its agricultural needs. Without China, Russia would be facing shortages in every sector of its economy.

Internationally:
- Russia has few allies unless you count Syria and North Korea.
- The Chinese have used Russia where it has suited their purposes but are not allies. The energy rich nations of Central Asia were once part of the Soviet Union and China was only too happy to route new pipelines directly to China. Oil that up to five years ago travelled to Russia now goes directly to China (Putin was not happy about this),
- The Chinese who were buying Russian armaments are now simply copying them and producing their own (Putin is not happy about this as well),
- The two other major clients of Russian armaments, Vietnam and India are not allies but rather seeking cheaper armaments to offset China's growing threat to their interests. Both Vietnam and India benefit from growing economies and international trade and would not hinder their respective economies by an alliance with Russia.
- One of Russia's closest "allies" Belarus has already warned Putin to keep its distance.
- Putin's vehicle to rekindle the old Soviet empire - the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) is pretty much dead.

Regarding Russia's military prowess some questions still remain unanswered and it may be premature to state that its military has reached new heights. To date its military power has been fuelled by less than adequately trained and equipped draftees. Afghanistan was an unmitigated disaster and the Ukraine's less well-equipped military has not collapsed in confronting Russian troops.

Unless Putin is suicidal and I don't believe this to be true, he will need to tread carefully.

 

[Liminal]

A couple of hundred deaths? Russia lost anywhere from 7 million to 13 million soldiers in WW2 and around 300 million civilians. Casualties aren't going to influence the former KGB officer.

Perhaps you missed the part where the families of the dead aren't allowed to speak.

 

[RandomVariable]

Yanukovych had stolen billions from the Ukrainian economy as a crony of Putin. Ukrainians were fed up and kicked his ass to the curb. Russian propaganda seized on the fact that a small percentage of the protestors were extremists and used that to claim Nazis had taken power - what bullshit.

After taking control of Georgian territory earlier, Putin devised a plan to seize Crimea and divide Ukraine. Putin regrets the fall of the old Soviet Empire and is trying to rebuild some semblance of that. His ambitions have hit a few snags however - Central Asia is now firmly in the Chinese camp, Belarus has warned Putin not to threaten their nation or face the consequences, and the large Muslim population presently under Russian control is showing signs of greater militancy.

Internally Russia's inner circle of billionaires (often fortunes built on stolen state assets but sanctioned by Putin) are starting to get nervous - oil prices are going down, international funds and markets are more difficult to access, and Putin has more recently turned on some of Russia's wealthiest, leaving the remaining billionaires to wonder who will be next?

Russia has no industry other than energy (prices going down) and armaments. Sadly average Russians are paying the price for the misguided and callous ambitions of another Russian dictator.

.

I would generally agree with what you say but sounds like you are underestimating what Russia can do and what Putin will do. A country with nothing but was a once great empire is a heck of a lot more powerful than a country that has nothing and never had anything.

I don't underestimate Putin. There are a number of competing interests that deserve consideration:

In Russia:
- a small but growing middle class that are sick of the endemic corruption plaguing Russia and who could prove disruptive to Putin's continued rule,
- the Russian billionaires who understand that their continued existence is entirely dependent on Putin's "goodwill",
- independence movements like that found in Siberia, the heart of Russia's oil and gas fields. Did you know that some estimates put the number of Chinese living in Siberia at several million? With that much energy so close to China, it may come to pass that the Chinese one day invade Siberia claiming that they need to protect their citizens (the same excuse that Russia so frequently uses to justify its incursions into other countries),
- Muslim self-determination may further test Putin's empire building ambitions. An internal "Afganistan" would require a commitment of considerable military resources to hold on to regions like Chechnya. If you look at where foreign nationals joining ISIS come from, Russia tops the list. Ouch.
- a reliance on imports for everything other than energy and armaments. Russia still has difficulty meeting its agricultural needs. Without China, Russia would be facing shortages in every sector of its economy.

Internationally:
- Russia has few allies unless you count Syria and North Korea.
- The Chinese have used Russia where it has suited their purposes but are not allies. The energy rich nations of Central Asia were once part of the Soviet Union and China was only too happy to route new pipelines directly to China. Oil that up to five years ago travelled to Russia now goes directly to China (Putin was not happy about this),
- The Chinese who were buying Russian armaments are now simply copying them and producing their own (Putin is not happy about this as well),
- The two other major clients of Russian armaments, Vietnam and India are not allies but rather seeking cheaper armaments to offset China's growing threat to their interests. Both Vietnam and India benefit from growing economies and international trade and would not hinder their respective economies by an alliance with Russia.
- One of Russia's closest "allies" Belarus has already warned Putin to keep its distance.
- Putin's vehicle to rekindle the old Soviet empire - the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) is pretty much dead.

Regarding Russia's military prowess some questions still remain unanswered and it may be premature to state that its military has reached new heights. To date its military power has been fuelled by less than adequately trained and equipped draftees. Afghanistan was an unmitigated disaster and the Ukraine's less well-equipped military has not collapsed in confronting Russian troops.

Unless Putin is suicidal and I don't believe this to be true, he will need to tread carefully.

We might both be right, we might both be wrong. I believe could very well both be right since it seems we are referring to different, but overlapping time frames. You are looking out 5, maybe 10 years. I am looking out 5 months, maybe 5 days. I think by this summer the world will know pretty much what happened to the Soviet Union after the Cold War.

You say Putin is not suicidal. Perhaps not but he may very well be fatalistic. And while China might not be on the same page with Russia a fatalistic Putin could work out to their benefit. I do not think China's international strategy is going to get quite so complex. Technically Russia and China are allies. Russia, China, Iran, and Syria signed a military pact. Even if Russia, Iran, and Syria get into a conflict I do not think it would pull in China however, but it might.

Most of what you sited within Russia is an ongoing process. My time frame makes that a snapshot of the moment with much less consideration for where they have come from or where they will end up.

I do not see Belarus playing much of a part in strategy. If Putin does not need them he will ignore them. If he needs the country for a staging area he will use it.

This is why I see a 5 day time frame sufficient to judge long range outcomes. In the Ukraine, just out of sight of the OSCE inspectors it is estimated Russia has assembled 2,500 troops, 25 tanks, self-propelled artillery, armoured troop carriers, etc., etc. Putin did not put that stuff there because he was running out of room for it in Russia. The fact that he is denying it is even there means he did not put it there as a show of force. Therefore Putin put that stuff there because he wanted it there and he is denying it is there because he plans to use it. Because of all you have illustrated Putin does have a lot on his mind and some of that is that he should pull that stuff back home and pretend all of this never happened. In hindsight Putin will probably wish he made that choice. Putin is not a hindsight kind of guy unfortunately. At least not in a way we would like him to be.

 

[Decus]

Although I largely disagree with your assessment, I sincerely appreciate the tone of your response. I do however believe you are right that if the present course of events continues unimpeded (no new events) that Putin will try to " pretend all of this never happened" (quoted from your post).

 

[whitehall]

A couple of hundred deaths? Russia lost anywhere from 7 million to 13 million soldiers in WW2 and around 300 million civilians. Casualties aren't going to influence the former KGB officer.

Perhaps you missed the part where the families of the dead aren't allowed to speak.

And that's a new thing in Russia? When the government controls the economy, the "justice system" and the media you can bet your red ass that there will be no complaints.

 

[Liminal]

A couple of hundred deaths? Russia lost anywhere from 7 million to 13 million soldiers in WW2 and around 300 million civilians. Casualties aren't going to influence the former KGB officer.

Perhaps you missed the part where the families of the dead aren't allowed to speak.

And that's a new thing in Russia? When the government controls the economy, the "justice system" and the media you can bet your red ass that there will be no complaints.

I'm not getting what your point is. Do you have one?

 

[Liminal]

A couple of hundred deaths? Russia lost anywhere from 7 million to 13 million soldiers in WW2 and around 300 million civilians. Casualties aren't going to influence the former KGB officer.

Times are different. Putin despite what he might want to do strategically and tactically he has to take modern factors into account. That said in a larger conflict Russia would treat the battle space much, much different that Western forces might. If there were 10 enemy fighters in a town Putin would order the town flattened.

The Russian army is a joke, poor command and control systems, outmoded training methods, a corrupt and incompetent officer corps, almost no logistic support units, old and badly maintained equipment. Almost any modern NATO army could hand the Russians a humiliating defeat. Not to mention that the Russians don't have anything like the economic resources to pursue a long campaign. Italy has a larger economy than Russia, maybe we should be more worried about the Italians. Nuclear weapons are the only things that make Russia a world power.

 

[gipper]

Putin is not the source of the problem, though he certainly can't be trusted.

The source of the problem resides in the White House.

 

[Liminal]

Putin is not the source of the problem, though he certainly can't be trusted.

The source of the problem resides in the White House.

Thank you for that deep, thoughtful analysis of the current geopolitical situation.