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Romney Has Massive Lead Over Obama in the South (BUT...)

Yesterday's Gallup poll shows Mitt Romney with his largest lead over over President Obama, 51% to 45%. The poll was taken before the second presidential debate. While this looks great for Romney, Markos Moulitsas has taken a more detailed look at the poll internals for Tuesday, which show a somewhat different picture'
Just as I suspected:

Romney's entire advantage in this poll comes from a massive lead in the South. Now sure, some of that may be Florida, but the state-level polling certainly doesn't show that. So Romney is driving up big margins in Texas, Alabama, Oklahoma, Mississippi and other such presidentially irrelevant states? Good for him! I'm sure that'll be cold comfort as he loses the states that actually matter in the Midwest and West.

11:07 AM PT: Latest tracking polls:

Rasmussen (national): Romney +1, was R+2 yesterday
Rasmussen (Swing states): Obama +3 (50-47)
Ipsos/Reuters: Obama +3
YouGov/Economist: Obama +1
IBD/TIPP: Obama +1
RAND: Obama +5

None have included post-debate numbers, because those can't be polled until today.
 
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RDD_1210

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I think it's going to be close and down to the wire. All the speculating in the world between now and then won't change a thing.
 

Freemason9

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I can't say it speaks well to any modern human to be politically popular in the South.
 

Dissent

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I expect Willard to win most of the south...maybe not Va,NC or Florida but all the rest yeah...good ole bible belt....I love the south but man I hate the bible belt. I think it will be closer because its so damn christian down here and Willard is a Mormon...them tolerant christian's ya know...
 

Inthemiddle

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I think it's going to be close and down to the wire. All the speculating in the world between now and then won't change a thing.
It's going to come down to Ohio, as usual. But in addition to that, Obama needs to swing Iowa or Colorado as well. He has no realistic chance of winning anything else that will get him where he needs.
 

Inthemiddle

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maybe not Va,NC or Florida but all the rest yeah
All three will go to Romney. Romney is currently ahead in all three, all three usually go red historically. It's not realistic at this point to expect Obama to gain a surge in popularity in any of those states.
 

Charles_Main

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I expect Willard to win most of the south...maybe not Va,NC or Florida but all the rest yeah...good ole bible belt....I love the south but man I hate the bible belt. I think it will be closer because its so damn christian down here and Willard is a Mormon...them tolerant christian's ya know...
Romney will Take NC, Va, and FLA,

Bank on it.
 

Dissent

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maybe not Va,NC or Florida but all the rest yeah
All three will go to Romney. Romney is currently ahead in all three, all three usually go red historically. It's not realistic at this point to expect Obama to gain a surge in popularity in any of those states.
Obama won all 3 in 2008.I am waiting for the post debate polls...If Romney loses Ohio its over. Seeing how Gary Johnson was getting 10% there I don't see Romney willing and I also don't see him winning Va or NC for 1 reason Virgil Goode he was a long time politician in southern Va and people know his name well even if he takes 1% of the vote in Va and NC it could lose both for Romney...hell Obama won NC by like 14k votes in 2008....Florida I think Romney loses because of Ryan's stance on medicaid scares seniors...we shall see I might be wrong but that's how I see it...people say 3rd parties don't matter but if Nader hadn't run in 2000 we would have had at least 4 years of Gore and not Bush.
 

beretta304

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Romney Has Massive Lead Over Obama in the South (BUT...)

Yesterday's Gallup poll shows Mitt Romney with his largest lead over over President Obama, 51% to 45%. The poll was taken before the second presidential debate. While this looks great for Romney, Markos Moulitsas has taken a more detailed look at the poll internals for Tuesday, which show a somewhat different picture'
Just as I suspected:

Romney's entire advantage in this poll comes from a massive lead in the South. Now sure, some of that may be Florida, but the state-level polling certainly doesn't show that. So Romney is driving up big margins in Texas, Alabama, Oklahoma, Mississippi and other such presidentially irrelevant states? Good for him! I'm sure that'll be cold comfort as he loses the states that actually matter in the Midwest and West.

11:07 AM PT: Latest tracking polls:

Rasmussen (national): Romney +1, was R+2 yesterday
Rasmussen (Swing states): Obama +3 (50-47)
Ipsos/Reuters: Obama +3
YouGov/Economist: Obama +1
IBD/TIPP: Obama +1
RAND: Obama +5

None have included post-debate numbers, because those can't be polled until today.
RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

But nuttin' STFU with your horseshit! You're boring the crap out of us. Take your fantasies somewhere else.
 

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