Putting the "COVID-19 virus is just like the flu" myth to bed

[Dr Grump]

Finally, from a doctor who spent 7 years on the front line, talking about how flu stats are measured.
Biggest take outs from the piece (my bold):


"The 25,000 to 69,000 numbers that Trump cited do not represent counted flu deaths per year; they are estimates that the CDC produces by multiplying the number of flu death counts reported by various coefficients produced through complicated algorithms. ... the CDC’s reported number of actual confirmed flu deaths—that is, counting flu deaths the way we are currently counting deaths from the coronavirus—has ranged from 3,448 to 15,620.."

Er, COVID-19 deaths are already over 60,000 and counting...

"..There is some logic behind the CDC’s methods. There are, of course, some flu deaths that are missed, because not everyone who contracts the flu gets a flu test. But there are little data to support the CDC’s assumption that the number of people who die of flu each year is on average six times greater than the number of flu deaths that are actually confirmed. In fact, in the fine print, the CDC’s flu numbers also include pneumonia deaths.,.."

"..If we compare, for instance, the number of people who died in the United States from COVID-19 in the second full week of April to the number of people who died from influenza during the worst week of the past seven flu seasons (as reported to the CDC), we find that the novel coronavirus killed between 9.5 and 44 times more people than seasonal flu.."

Comparing COVID-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is like Comparing Apples to Oranges

The former are actual numbers; the latter are inflated statistical estimates

blogs.scientificamerican.com

 

[Meathead]

Finally, from a doctor who spent 7 years on the front line, talking about how flu stats are measured.
Biggest take outs from the piece (my bold):


"The 25,000 to 69,000 numbers that Trump cited do not represent counted flu deaths per year; they are estimates that the CDC produces by multiplying the number of flu death counts reported by various coefficients produced through complicated algorithms. ... the CDC’s reported number of actual confirmed flu deaths—that is, counting flu deaths the way we are currently counting deaths from the coronavirus—has ranged from 3,448 to 15,620.."

Er, COVID-19 deaths are already over 60,000 and counting...

"..There is some logic behind the CDC’s methods. There are, of course, some flu deaths that are missed, because not everyone who contracts the flu gets a flu test. But there are little data to support the CDC’s assumption that the number of people who die of flu each year is on average six times greater than the number of flu deaths that are actually confirmed. In fact, in the fine print, the CDC’s flu numbers also include pneumonia deaths.,.."

"..If we compare, for instance, the number of people who died in the United States from COVID-19 in the second full week of April to the number of people who died from influenza during the worst week of the past seven flu seasons (as reported to the CDC), we find that the novel coronavirus killed between 9.5 and 44 times more people than seasonal flu.."

Comparing COVID-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is like Comparing Apples to Oranges

The former are actual numbers; the latter are inflated statistical estimates

blogs.scientificamerican.com

The flu is and has been far deadlier than the Chinese virus. We've had years to combat influenza and it still kills far more people than the new virus.

 

[wamose]

The bottom line is Communist China intentionally poisoned the world with this virus. The whole world should respond to this act of war. You can't trust communists and you sure as hell don't want to live in a world shaped by these dog eating lowlifes. Better dead than red.

 

[Dr Grump]

Finally, from a doctor who spent 7 years on the front line, talking about how flu stats are measured.
Biggest take outs from the piece (my bold):


"The 25,000 to 69,000 numbers that Trump cited do not represent counted flu deaths per year; they are estimates that the CDC produces by multiplying the number of flu death counts reported by various coefficients produced through complicated algorithms. ... the CDC’s reported number of actual confirmed flu deaths—that is, counting flu deaths the way we are currently counting deaths from the coronavirus—has ranged from 3,448 to 15,620.."

Er, COVID-19 deaths are already over 60,000 and counting...

"..There is some logic behind the CDC’s methods. There are, of course, some flu deaths that are missed, because not everyone who contracts the flu gets a flu test. But there are little data to support the CDC’s assumption that the number of people who die of flu each year is on average six times greater than the number of flu deaths that are actually confirmed. In fact, in the fine print, the CDC’s flu numbers also include pneumonia deaths.,.."

"..If we compare, for instance, the number of people who died in the United States from COVID-19 in the second full week of April to the number of people who died from influenza during the worst week of the past seven flu seasons (as reported to the CDC), we find that the novel coronavirus killed between 9.5 and 44 times more people than seasonal flu.."

Comparing COVID-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is like Comparing Apples to Oranges

The former are actual numbers; the latter are inflated statistical estimates

blogs.scientificamerican.com

The flu is and has been far deadlier than the Chinese virus. We've had years to combat influenza and it still kills far more people than the new virus.

Er. No it doesn't.
The facts in the OP state that. In its worst year in the past seven years the flu actually killed 15,620 over the flu season (although you can add on a few thousand more for those that weren't in the official count as outlined by the doctor in his op-ed).
As of yesterday COVID has killed 61,000+ in just over two months.

 

[Penelope]

Excellent article in the OP.

The CDC estimates the no of deaths each year from the flu.

 

[candycorn]

The flu kills thousands each year. The Covid 19 virus has killed 55,000 in 2 months. No; it's not the same thing.

 

[Dr Grump]

The flu kills thousands each year. The Covid 19 virus has killed 55,000 in 2 months. No; it's not the same thing.

I concur. Thus the OP

 

[CWayne]

Finally, from a doctor who spent 7 years on the front line, talking about how flu stats are measured.
Biggest take outs from the piece (my bold):


"The 25,000 to 69,000 numbers that Trump cited do not represent counted flu deaths per year; they are estimates that the CDC produces by multiplying the number of flu death counts reported by various coefficients produced through complicated algorithms. ... the CDC’s reported number of actual confirmed flu deaths—that is, counting flu deaths the way we are currently counting deaths from the coronavirus—has ranged from 3,448 to 15,620.."

Er, COVID-19 deaths are already over 60,000 and counting...

"..There is some logic behind the CDC’s methods. There are, of course, some flu deaths that are missed, because not everyone who contracts the flu gets a flu test. But there are little data to support the CDC’s assumption that the number of people who die of flu each year is on average six times greater than the number of flu deaths that are actually confirmed. In fact, in the fine print, the CDC’s flu numbers also include pneumonia deaths.,.."

"..If we compare, for instance, the number of people who died in the United States from COVID-19 in the second full week of April to the number of people who died from influenza during the worst week of the past seven flu seasons (as reported to the CDC), we find that the novel coronavirus killed between 9.5 and 44 times more people than seasonal flu.."

Comparing COVID-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is like Comparing Apples to Oranges

The former are actual numbers; the latter are inflated statistical estimates

blogs.scientificamerican.com

Isn't it amazing what information one can conclude when one 'messages' the data?

It's all about the reporting, right Dr. Gump.

I wonder what his conclusion would be without the filters and with the known fact that covid-19 deaths are hugely overinflated?

 

[Meathead]

Yeah, this is pretty much politically-driven nonsense. We know almost nothing about the Chinese virus except that it is very contagious. In few few years it could be as common as polio is today.

Influenza has been with us for centuries.

 

[emilynghiem]

Yeah, this is pretty much politically-driven nonsense. We know almost nothing about the Chinese virus except that it is very contagious. In few few years it could be as common as polio is today.

Influenza has been with us for centuries.

Dear Meathead:
The gravest concern I see is to avoid more hospitalizations than medical science has time to develop and prove safe effective treatments for. Even if there were 0 deaths, and all survived, the cases of lung and organ failure that suddenly escalate within days of first symptoms, then take 2-4 weeks of isolated care, risk leaving survivors with permanent brain and organ damage that would keep them dependent on govt assistance. This is not affordable or sustainable when it happens to healthy young people who could require physical therapy for life. Polio had similar effects on people before treatment was developed to prevent such permanent damage. Because this is the first exposure of the world populations to a new virus, that's why the reactions to both the virus and the experimental trearments are so unpredictable.

It isn't fair to send more people to the hospital and put them and medics at higher risk of failure this early on, before medical science has time to catch up with the demands. Perhaps later, it may not be so dangerous, but right now is the most critical time. 100 doctors dying in Italy, and thousands more medical staff infected from higher exposure, shows the difference this new virus makes that has twice the spread rate, and gives only 3-6 days to find serious respiratory cases the right treatment to avoid ICU intubation.

Even if deaths can't be proven to you to be an issue, even without that factor, the concern for reducing exposure and preventing higher viral loads and hospitalizations to avoid getting people "experimented" on should be enough reason to take medical precautions at this time.

It doesn't mean shutting down jobs and economy, but restructuring jobs and worksites to safely meet and manage the new medical demands instead of ignoring them. We can all get back to work effectively by addressing the new economic supply and demand flow, and can even use this opportunity to build more jobs, schools and medical programs in each district to help more cities and states run independently and avoid federal shutdowns in the future!

 

[Dick Foster]

Yeah, this is pretty much politically-driven nonsense. We know almost nothing about the Chinese virus except that it is very contagious. In few few years it could be as common as polio is today.

Influenza has been with us for centuries.

Centuries? Try millennias at least.

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

Most on the right, of course, will continue to propagate the lie that the COVID-19 virus ‘is just like the flu,’ ignoring facts and the truth.