Pundits prematurely declare victory for Obama

[CrimsonWhite]

Something to ground the Jobamabots.

Is there something about chilly weather that makes the media jump to conclusions? Does the changing of seasons make pundits eager to pronounce Barack Obama a sure thing? Because fall has finally arrived in Washington, and suddenly it seems like we're back in January.

You remember January. That's when Obama trounced Hillary Clinton in the Iowa caucuses, and more or less every commentator on the planet pronounced the Democratic primary a done deal. After Iowa, polls showed Obama in the lead in New Hampshire. And when Obama won New Hampshire, we were told, the primary would be over. Except the primary wasn't over. It wasn't over at all. Clinton won New Hampshire, and the primary lasted until early June. Clinton won every big state except Obama's home state of Illinois. She positively trounced Obama in states like Pennsylvania and Kentucky and West Virginia. She won Ohio by nine percentage points.

Obama won the nomination in the end, of course. And now he is leading John McCain in the polls. And now, once again, the media have decided that the race is over. Newsweek's cover asks how "President Obama" will be able to govern our center-right nation, even though Election Day isn't for two weeks. Politico's Mike Allen wonders how the networks will cope if it becomes clear Obama is the winner "before most Americans have finished dinner." The Obama campaign has so much money that it's buying advertising space in--I'm not sure how this works either--video games.

A Done Deal?

 

[elvis]

Something to ground the Jobamabots.

counting chickens.

 

[DavidS]

Unless McCain wins Pennsylvania, it is over. He has given up on Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa.

The best case scenario for the McCain campaign is winning New Hampshire and having a tie 269-269, in which Barack Obama would be president and Sarah Palin would be vice president.

See my map below. Every single blue state that you see are states that McCain has pretty much given up on. Unfortunately, Obama is leading by 10 in Virginia and New Hampshire and leading outside the margin of error in a number of other states. All Obama has to do is win at least one of those red states and it's over.

 

[elvis]

Unless McCain wins Pennsylvania, it is over. He has given up on Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa.

The best case scenario for the McCain campaign is winning New Hampshire and having a tie 269-269, in which Barack Obama would be president and Sarah Palin would be vice president.

robert just posted that he's only given up on colorado.

 

[DavidS]

robert just posted that he's only given up on colorado.

Do you really think New Mexico, with a far left governer Richardson, a sitting Democratic Senator and retiring Republican Senator in which the Democratic candidate is in the lead currently, is going to vote Republican?

Additionally, Obama has held a consistent lead in Iowa for almost a year.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Iowa: McCain vs. Obama

Just to tickle your fancy, Obama leads by double digits in New Mexico and Colorado.

 

[Walkabout Jones]

It ain't over, but anyone can read the tea leaves on this one. It's more a question of whether they want to. McCain has to win all 7 battleground states to make it to 270. And a number of those states aren't looking very good for him. Obama is going to be able to spend in states like George and South Dakota, places where McCain should be spending no money to defend two weeks before the election. This takes resources away from running that table.

Don't believe me. The same is being said privately (and in some cases on television) by Republican analysts. John McCain could win the election, but unless he's able to convincingly reinvent the Republican party's economic philosophy I don't see it happening.

McCain didn't get into this race to deal with a financial collapse; he got in because of Iraq. I voted for McCain in the primary in 2000, but he just doesn't look up for the challenge in 2008.

 

[elvis]

Do you really think New Mexico, with a far left governer Richardson, a sitting Democratic Senator and retiring Republican Senator in which the Democratic candidate is in the lead currently, is going to vote Republican?

Additionally, Obama has held a consistent lead in Iowa for almost a year.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Iowa: McCain vs. Obama

Just to tickle your fancy, Obama leads by double digits in New Mexico and Colorado.

i have predicted for at least six months that Obama would win Iowa and New Mexico. In fact, when McCain was nominated, I knew Iowa was a longshot. but that isn't what your post was about.

 

[Luissa]

You won't hear me saying he has it in the bag! And neither should anyone else! We can wait two weeks!

 

[elvis]

You won't hear me saying he has it in the bag! And neither should anyone else! We can wait two weeks!

wise, if you don't mind me saying so.

 

[Epsilon Delta]

If it is true he's 'conceded' Iowa, NH, and NM, then the race is basically over. Obama only needs the Kerry States and these three to win. And McCain's problem doesn't even stop there if polls in republican strongholds like Montana, SD, Missouri, Indiana, and NC keep the way they've been going, he might win in a landslide.

 

[Stoner]

Pundits prematurely declare victory for Obama

That's not all they do prematurely.

 

[DavidS]

i have predicted for at least six months that Obama would win Iowa and New Mexico. In fact, when McCain was nominated, I knew Iowa was a longshot. but that isn't what your post was about.

So, again, looking at my map which is extremely generous to McCain, if he loses the entire Northeast (Maine, Vermont, Massachussetts, Rhode Island, New York State, Connecticut) and Mid Atlantic (Pennsyvalnia, New Jersey, Maryland) [100% possiblity] except for New Hampshire (50-50 shot), he loses the entire Pacific Coast (100% possible), he loses Colorado and New Mexico (100% possible), he loses Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconson, Michigan and Illinois, his only hope is to win Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Florida. In order for McCain to TIE this election, he needs to win 10 states, half of which Obama has a significant lead in. In order for Obama to WIN the election, he needs to win one state. If McCain and Obama tie, you can expect the Twelfth Ammendment to come into play which hasn't been been since Quincy Adams in the mid 1830s.

Listen, McCain is an honorable man. He has served this country with pride and has given his entire life for this country. From his late teenage years to his early 70s, John McCain has given so much to this country.

 

[Luissa]

wise, if you don't mind me saying so.

For one I do not want to jinx it! Plus there is "Dewey v Truman" and "Kennedy v Nixon". I think Obama has the upper hand and is polling well but the only thing that matters is Nov 5th, the day after the elections when HOPEFULLY we know for sure who the winner is!

 

[DavidS]

If it is true he's 'conceded' Iowa, NH, and NM, then the race is basically over. Obama only needs the Kerry States and these three to win. And McCain's problem doesn't even stop there if polls in republican strongholds like Montana, SD, Missouri, Indiana, and NC keep the way they've been going, he might win in a landslide.

McCain has not conceded NH, he has conceded Colorado.

 

[elvis]

For one I do not want to jinx it! Plus there is "Dewey v Truman" and "Kennedy v Nixon". I think Obama has the upper hand and is polling well but the only thing that matters is Nov 5th, the day after the elections when HOPEFULLY we know for sure who the winner is!

I want that newspaper.

 

[N4mddissent]

Obama hasn't said it's in the bag.
[youtube]f4wXT8DBGFU&hl[/youtube]

 

[DavidS]

It ain't over, but anyone can read the tea leaves on this one. It's more a question of whether they want to. McCain has to win all 7 battleground states to make it to 270. And a number of those states aren't looking very good for him. Obama is going to be able to spend in states like George and South Dakota, places where McCain should be spending no money to defend two weeks before the election. This takes resources away from running that table.

Don't believe me. The same is being said privately (and in some cases on television) by Republican analysts. John McCain could win the election, but unless he's able to convincingly reinvent the Republican party's economic philosophy I don't see it happening.

McCain didn't get into this race to deal with a financial collapse; he got in because of Iraq. I voted for McCain in the primary in 2000, but he just doesn't look up for the challenge in 2008.

The only chance McCain has to win is to win Colorado and he just conceded that state.

 

[DavidS]

Obama hasn't said it's in the bag.

<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="[URL]http://www.youtube.com/v/f4wXT8DBGFU&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param[/URL] name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="[URL]http://www.youtube.com/v/f4wXT8DBGFU&hl=en&fs=1[/URL]" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>

Zogby has Obama up by 8.

Zogby International

 

[elvis]

Obama hasn't said it's in the bag.

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You are correct. A friend of mine is working for the Obama campaign in colorado. I asked him if the campaign feels they have it in the bag. He said, absolutely not. They hate the hype and are worried dems will stay home on the false assumption it is "in the bag".

 

[elvis]

Zogby has Obama up by 8.

Zogby International

so once again, with this post and the one directly before it, you are implying the election is over.