- Jun 6, 2007
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The Ukrainian and European Union governments taking a position that the U.S. and U.K. are overacting to Russia military offensive moves is a major mistake that they will come to regret. At this juncture no one knows and that even includes Vladimir Putin whether he will order the Russian military to invade Ukraine, Putin is too cunning he will always do what is in his best interest so he won't make the final decision on this issue until the last minute before the invasion. But that being said Ukrainian President Zelensky should be preparing the Ukarinian people to fight an imminent war to stop a Russia invasion whose aim is to take Ukrainian territory, Putin's activity is to unusual even after his large build-up of troops at the Ukrainian border, enough for optimal leverage at the negotiating table, over the approximately last two weeks he sent an additional twenty-three battalions to the Ukrainian border. President Putin will get something big out of all his moves of late toward Ukraine or he isn't Valdimir Putin.
I personally don't think Nato gives Vladimir Putin enough at the negotiating table to placate him so I think Putin invades Ukraine and hurts Ukraine enough to placate himself. I agree with the commentators that believe Putin doesn't conquer the country of Ukraine but takes a portion of the country twenty percent of the east and twenty percent of the south. Specifically, this portion will have a border from the North approximately fifty miles to the west of Chernihiv, down to Pryluky, down to Poltava, down to Dnipropetrovsk, down to Zaporizhzhya, down to kakhovka, west to Nova Odesa and down to Berezivka and over to the border of Moldiva. Putin doesn't want to take Kyev with all the patriotic Ukrainians there that would die for their freedom rather than live under Kremlin oppression they would create an insurgency that would kill many Russian soldiers. Vladimir Putin core goal is to not have a Ukraine that hurts him, a Ukraine that hurts him is one that is part of Nato and/or is prosperous and democratic because then ordinary Russians will want what ordinary Ukrainian have and try to topple his government to get it. President Putin taking this portion of the country achieves his goal Ukraine never becomes part of NATO because Nato has a common defense mandate which if Ukraine was admitted would then require them to fight a war against Russia to reclaim Ukrainian sovereign territory and Nato countries will not take on that burden! Further, Putin taking this territory cuts Ukraine off from the Black Sea which hurts Ukraine economically plus with Ukraine being in part occupied by Russia it will be deemed an unstable country by the investment community so foreign investment will be low all resulting in Ukraine's economy being a lukewarm one at best.
President Zelensky could lead his people to win this war against Vladimir Putin and the Russian Army but he has to offer his people bold and tough leadership. He needs to have a national address to his people where he levels with them about the challenges they face. He needs to tell them we are fighting a superpower in Russia here whose armed forces are competitive with the superpowers of the U.S. and China. We cannot win this war by defeating or wiping out Russia's military head to head we win this war by causing fatalities and casualties to the Russian armed forces high enough that their leaders conclude it isn't worth it to wage this war. In order to do this the Ukrainian government must largely keep its army intact through this war because the unleashing of Ukrainian army weapons against the invaders will bring significant Russian military casualties that will mount; practically this means we must not let large portions of our army get encircled and get trapped by the Russian army. Specifically this means the Ukrainian Army must continually position its front line in front of the Russian Army's front line it must not allow columns of the Russian Army to get behind the Ukrainian front lines because otherwise these Ukrainian troops will be trapped and will be wiped out as Russia drops its gigantic amount of munitions on the caught Ukrainian soldiers. To this end President Zelensky should tell the Ukrainian people that in the east the Ukrainian army's front line will be fifty miles from the border and it will be completely out of the province of Luhansk and if the Russian army breaks through the front line in overwhelming force the Ukrainian Army front line will pull back accordingly there will be no peninsula type of land formations that existed in the Ukrainian front lines at the battle of Debaltseve which allowed Ukrainian Army units to be cutoff and wiped out; the Ukrainian army needs this initial fifty mile buffer to provide time for the Ukrainian army to reposition itself once the Russian army crosses the border because the Russian army will be moving quickly, Russian equipment is high quality which provides them with this speed quality.
President Zelensky should tell the Ukranian civilian populations in these withdrawn territories that many such areas have local militias and we will allow them to stay and fight for their and your home communities and I am even instructing the commanders of the Ukrainian army units in the border areas for those militias that have the expertise to operate tanks and artillery guns that the Ukranian army commanders leave up to twenty percent of the tanks and artillery guns with the militias to defend their communities and be generous in your assessments if the militias can handle the weapon systems. Furthermore, if Russian military columns invade the border they will eventually hook left or right to trap the militias if the militias request help to try to escape I instruct the Ukrainian army commanders not risking being encircled or captured themselves using Ukrainian artillery and tank fire to try to weaken or create a hole in the Russian lines so the militia have an opportunity to escape. President Zelensky needs to provide a public disclaimer to these militia fighters, he needs to tell them "if you are taken prisoner by Russian forces the Ukrainian government will not trade a permanent cease fire for your freedom, making such a trade practically means agreeing to the permanent loss of Ukrainian sovereign territory such an agreement can never be made"!
If President Vladimir Putin invades Russia it will be by the end of September this year he will not likely invade later because the military operation could take up to two months and if he starts in October or November his army could be in a fight in December when there is freezing temperatures and snow which could immobilize tank, troop carriers and artillery carriers which could make them easy targets for Ukrainian shell fire which could cause great losses to the Russian army, President Putin is too smart to take such a risk. The point being is President Zelensky should be calling up all the reserves of the Ukrainian army for a six months stint to take Ukraine through this danger period; heaven knows there is work for them to do Russian Generals will probably try to run at least two Russian military columns one from the north going south and one form the south going North to meet at Zaporizhzhya and cut off the Ukrainian army in the east and eventually cause them to be wiped out. What the Ukrainian Generals should be doing is building trenches and fortifications to protect artillery guns and tanks at least four if not six couples of lines running east to west around thirty to forty miles apart along this Russian invasion path so if need be Ukrainian weapons systems can be added to these lines to be used to slow the advance of the Russian columns buying the Ukrainian army some time to withdraw the Ukrainian army in the east to west of Zaporizhzhya through these escape routes! Honestly, I think Vladimir Putin will come this year with his invasion force but the Ukrainian people with God's grace and smarts and bravery can win this war of Russian aggression!
I personally don't think Nato gives Vladimir Putin enough at the negotiating table to placate him so I think Putin invades Ukraine and hurts Ukraine enough to placate himself. I agree with the commentators that believe Putin doesn't conquer the country of Ukraine but takes a portion of the country twenty percent of the east and twenty percent of the south. Specifically, this portion will have a border from the North approximately fifty miles to the west of Chernihiv, down to Pryluky, down to Poltava, down to Dnipropetrovsk, down to Zaporizhzhya, down to kakhovka, west to Nova Odesa and down to Berezivka and over to the border of Moldiva. Putin doesn't want to take Kyev with all the patriotic Ukrainians there that would die for their freedom rather than live under Kremlin oppression they would create an insurgency that would kill many Russian soldiers. Vladimir Putin core goal is to not have a Ukraine that hurts him, a Ukraine that hurts him is one that is part of Nato and/or is prosperous and democratic because then ordinary Russians will want what ordinary Ukrainian have and try to topple his government to get it. President Putin taking this portion of the country achieves his goal Ukraine never becomes part of NATO because Nato has a common defense mandate which if Ukraine was admitted would then require them to fight a war against Russia to reclaim Ukrainian sovereign territory and Nato countries will not take on that burden! Further, Putin taking this territory cuts Ukraine off from the Black Sea which hurts Ukraine economically plus with Ukraine being in part occupied by Russia it will be deemed an unstable country by the investment community so foreign investment will be low all resulting in Ukraine's economy being a lukewarm one at best.
President Zelensky could lead his people to win this war against Vladimir Putin and the Russian Army but he has to offer his people bold and tough leadership. He needs to have a national address to his people where he levels with them about the challenges they face. He needs to tell them we are fighting a superpower in Russia here whose armed forces are competitive with the superpowers of the U.S. and China. We cannot win this war by defeating or wiping out Russia's military head to head we win this war by causing fatalities and casualties to the Russian armed forces high enough that their leaders conclude it isn't worth it to wage this war. In order to do this the Ukrainian government must largely keep its army intact through this war because the unleashing of Ukrainian army weapons against the invaders will bring significant Russian military casualties that will mount; practically this means we must not let large portions of our army get encircled and get trapped by the Russian army. Specifically this means the Ukrainian Army must continually position its front line in front of the Russian Army's front line it must not allow columns of the Russian Army to get behind the Ukrainian front lines because otherwise these Ukrainian troops will be trapped and will be wiped out as Russia drops its gigantic amount of munitions on the caught Ukrainian soldiers. To this end President Zelensky should tell the Ukrainian people that in the east the Ukrainian army's front line will be fifty miles from the border and it will be completely out of the province of Luhansk and if the Russian army breaks through the front line in overwhelming force the Ukrainian Army front line will pull back accordingly there will be no peninsula type of land formations that existed in the Ukrainian front lines at the battle of Debaltseve which allowed Ukrainian Army units to be cutoff and wiped out; the Ukrainian army needs this initial fifty mile buffer to provide time for the Ukrainian army to reposition itself once the Russian army crosses the border because the Russian army will be moving quickly, Russian equipment is high quality which provides them with this speed quality.
President Zelensky should tell the Ukranian civilian populations in these withdrawn territories that many such areas have local militias and we will allow them to stay and fight for their and your home communities and I am even instructing the commanders of the Ukrainian army units in the border areas for those militias that have the expertise to operate tanks and artillery guns that the Ukranian army commanders leave up to twenty percent of the tanks and artillery guns with the militias to defend their communities and be generous in your assessments if the militias can handle the weapon systems. Furthermore, if Russian military columns invade the border they will eventually hook left or right to trap the militias if the militias request help to try to escape I instruct the Ukrainian army commanders not risking being encircled or captured themselves using Ukrainian artillery and tank fire to try to weaken or create a hole in the Russian lines so the militia have an opportunity to escape. President Zelensky needs to provide a public disclaimer to these militia fighters, he needs to tell them "if you are taken prisoner by Russian forces the Ukrainian government will not trade a permanent cease fire for your freedom, making such a trade practically means agreeing to the permanent loss of Ukrainian sovereign territory such an agreement can never be made"!
If President Vladimir Putin invades Russia it will be by the end of September this year he will not likely invade later because the military operation could take up to two months and if he starts in October or November his army could be in a fight in December when there is freezing temperatures and snow which could immobilize tank, troop carriers and artillery carriers which could make them easy targets for Ukrainian shell fire which could cause great losses to the Russian army, President Putin is too smart to take such a risk. The point being is President Zelensky should be calling up all the reserves of the Ukrainian army for a six months stint to take Ukraine through this danger period; heaven knows there is work for them to do Russian Generals will probably try to run at least two Russian military columns one from the north going south and one form the south going North to meet at Zaporizhzhya and cut off the Ukrainian army in the east and eventually cause them to be wiped out. What the Ukrainian Generals should be doing is building trenches and fortifications to protect artillery guns and tanks at least four if not six couples of lines running east to west around thirty to forty miles apart along this Russian invasion path so if need be Ukrainian weapons systems can be added to these lines to be used to slow the advance of the Russian columns buying the Ukrainian army some time to withdraw the Ukrainian army in the east to west of Zaporizhzhya through these escape routes! Honestly, I think Vladimir Putin will come this year with his invasion force but the Ukrainian people with God's grace and smarts and bravery can win this war of Russian aggression!
