Point of Clarification - Sarah Palin, 2008 GE

[Vandalshandle]

Actually, I think that we should be concentrating on Bachmann today. Tomorrow she will no longer be in Congress. Where else will we go to get our revisionist history, like when she told us that the founding fathers ended slavery?

Article 1, Section 9 authorized Congress to ban the importation of slaves, which it did in 1808.

This abolishment of slavery in 1808 certainly must have surprised the several million negroes who were finally freed from slavery in 1865. It must have been because of the slow delivery of newspapers back then....

 

[Luddly Neddite]

WOW, your party just lost power so now it's time to dig on Palin again

pathetic

You missed the point, probably because you probably did not read the OP or go to any of the MANY links I provided.

But then again, do you ever get the point?

Steph is the dumbest poster on the board since bigreb left. I think he wasn't able to figure out the new format.

Heck, he couldn't even figure out how to work a tape measure ...

 

[Luddly Neddite]

I do think that the financial meltdown had more to do with McCain's failure than picking Palin did.

Particularly when he wanted to cancel the debate so he could go back and "fix" the mess. One person who had been well-disposed towards McCain up to that point told me 'He looked like a confused old man who couldn't multi-task".

Also, people read way to much into polls that showed McCain getting a bump around the time of his convention. Every challenger gets a bump during the convention. Dukakis led George H. Bush by 16 points after his convention, and still managed to lose 40 states in the General.

And gosh darn it, you are making me defend Palin here, but Palin did have some good dividends for McCain. She gave movement conservatives something to be excited about.

And then the old fart fell asleep during the meeting he was gonna "save".

Having lived in AZ for more than 25 years, I already despised him so there really wasn't much he could have done to get my vote. Seriously, his talent is self-aggrandizement and getting reelected with promises he never keeps. Oh yeah, and throwing good money after bad.

To be fair, the Rs threw SimpleSarah into the deep end before they had vetted her. If they had done their job, they would have known that she wasn't qualified to do more than deliver one line barbs and write notes on her hand.

They were hoping her cup size would hide her shortcomings as well as his. And, sure nuff, some still can't see past the empty shell to see the really ignorant and ugly person inside. She's a loser, a quitter, a very bitter fishwife who blames every one but herself for what she apparently considers to be her bad luck.

Not many could have beaten Obama. He was the right man at the right time and he's done a good job.

 

[Jroc]

The Rabbi made some outlandish claims on this thread:

2016 Election Prediction Thread Page 9 US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum

-and-

2016 Election Prediction Thread Page 9 US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum

-and-

namely, that Sarah Palin's VP candidacy in 2008 did not sink John McCain's ship.

I gave The Rabbi an opportunity to rethink this viewpoint THREE times, but he refused.

Unfortunately for him, The Rabbi has no idea how closely I followed the 2008 presidential election, including every single presidential poll (national and state level) for that year, just as I did in 2012. What he also does not know is that I did nightly battleground reports starting on 9/23/2008 and running every night until election night. Those battleground reports ran for 42 nights straight.

This is critical, for the second Palin set of interviews that was so disastrous happened on 9/24 and we can see the ripple effect of this interview very clearly.

So, some key dates to remember:

8/29/2008: Sarah Palin's candidacy announced by McCain at Wright State University, Fairborn (Dayton), OH, in the middle of the DEMOCRATIC National Convention, breaking with decency and convention.

9/11/2008: Sarah Palin's interview with Charlie Gibson is aired.

9/16/2008: The Stock Market melts-down.

9/24/2008: Sarah Palin's interviews with Katie Couric are aired.

Two more things to note:

1.) I did 2 week polling intervals to average polls, so the effects of any one event are likely to be seen STARTING circa 10-14 days after an event. And the full effect should be reflected in the averages between 14 and 21 days after an event. That's how polling aggregates work.

2.) Poll release dates are not the same as the polling dates themselves. A poll dated from 10/02 may have been conducted from 9/27-28, for instance. But rarely is a presidential poll released more than 7 days after the actual polling time frame. Most are released within 1-2 days after the polling actually took place.

This was the projected EV map as of September 1, 2008:

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond Projected EV map - Obama vs. McCain based on Poll Convergence 7

Obama 275 / McCain 221 / Tossup 42


Compared to 9/22:

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond Based on PC8 Obama 269 McCain 265 Tossup 4

Obama 269 / McCain 265 / Tossup 4

In all of the composites for 2008, this is the closest that McCain ever got to Obama: 265.

This was the projected EV map as of September 22, 2008, for the first three weeks of September. This map was created 6 days after the stock market crash, but two weeks after the first polling results from the announcement of Sarah Palin's VP candidacy started coming in. Remember, she was announced on 8/29 and the first polling results came in around 9/6, so, the two week time frame I mentioned is important here. And, polling based on the stock market crash, which most people did not really register yet, had yet to come in:



This seems counterintuitive, but remember, good polling averages are usually over two-week spans; this reduces a lot of statistical bumps. This high water mark for McCain represents his convention bounce, the pick of Palin, but before the public started to give input on the stock market crash and Palin's 2nd interview, which had not yet happened.

Now, for reference, here is the first battleground report, for 9/23, two days after the last EV map I reported (269/265):

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond BATTLEGROUND STATISTICAL REPORT 09 23

On 9/23, IN, NV, FL, VA and OH were leaning slightly to McCain.

On, 9/28:

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond Battleground State REPORT 09 28 compared to PC8 from 09 21.

the composite for Virginia moved from McCain to Obama and never looked back. That was 4 days after the disastrous Palin interview, but no real polling results had come out yet.

On 10/1/2008, 7 days after the Palin interview and after a lot of weekend polls came through, the battleground picture looked like this:

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond BATTLEGROUND STATE REPORT 10 01

And the EV projection,which had been Obama 269/McCain 265/tossup 4 just nine days before, became:

Obama 311 / McCain 202 /tossups 25

And the tossups were OH and NV. In between 9/28 and 10/01, in the days following the Palin interview and also TWO weeks after the stock market crash of 9/16, OH, NH, CO and FL moved from McCain to Obama (though OH was so lean, I classified it as tossup).

So, 10/01 is turning point no. 1, exactly TWO WEEKS after the stock market crash, and by this time, all polls from before 9/16 (stock market crash) had been cycled out of the averages.

Two days later, on 10/03:

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond BATTLEGROUND STATE REPORT 10 03

NV and NC moved from the McCain column to the Obama column and there was a major uptick for Obama in NH.

On 10/05, I put out a posting explaining my weighting method for all states, a method that I copied from a CONSERVATIVE electoral blogger with a very successful website.

10/07 was almost exactly TWO WEEKS after the Palin/Couric interviews were aired, and this battleground report therefore only included polls released AFTER the interviews:

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond BATTLEGROUND STATE REPORT 10 07

EV projection as of 10/7:

Obama 353 / McCain 185 / tossup 11
(the tossup was Missouri)

On that day, the only state of all the states that Obama won in 2008 that was not yet in his column was: Indiana.

353 + 11 = 364, plus NE-02 (which was only polled once or twice as an individual congressional district) = 365.

On 10/11, I noted that the campaign was going so well for Obama that he opened more offices in Omaha, Nebraska (NE-02):

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond WOW Obama really IS fighting for NE-02

On 10/16, I posted my "Poll Convergence" no. 10 - a complete analysis of all fifty states, not just the battlegrounds:

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond Distillation of PC 10 Obama 349 McCain 174 Tossup 15

EV projection as of 10/16:

Obama 349 / McCain 185 / tossup 15
(the tossup was North Carolina

You can read every single battleground report and distillation of a poll convergence, it is all there for all to read.

There is no doubt that there were two major turning points in aggregate polling: October 1st, and October 7th/8th.



There were also specific polls about the Palin candidacy, specifically, about her competence:

1.) Skepticism of Palin Growing Poll Finds

With the vice presidential candidates set to square off today in their only scheduled debate, public assessments of Sarah Palin's readiness have plummeted, and she may now be a drag on the Republican ticket among key voter groups, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll...The 60 percent who now see Palin as insufficiently experienced to step into the presidency is steeply higher than in a Post-ABC poll after her nomination early last month. Democrats and Republicans alike are now more apt to doubt her qualifications, but the biggest shift has come among independents.

And:

2.) Inside Obama s Sweeping Victory Pew Research Center

Sarah Palin’s impact on McCain’s fortunes will no doubt be long debated, and the results of the exit polls are somewhat mixed. Fully 60% of Americans casting ballots said that Palin is not qualified to be president should it be necessary; 81% of these voters favored Obama. Yet those who cited Palin’s selection as a factor in their vote — 60% of all voters — favored McCain by 56% to 43%.

and:

3.) http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/31/us/politics/31poll.html

A growing number of voters have concluded that Senator John McCain’s running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, is not qualified to be vice president, weighing down the Republican ticket in the last days of the campaign, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll...

....All told, 59 percent of voters surveyed said Ms. Palin was not prepared for the job, up nine percentage points since the beginning of the month. Nearly a third of voters polled said the vice-presidential selection would be a major factor influencing their vote for president, and those voters broadly favor Senator Barack Obama, the Democratic nominee.

And in a possible indication that the choice of Ms. Palin has hurt Mr. McCain’s image, voters said they had much more confidence in Mr. Obama to pick qualified people for his administration than they did in Mr. McCain.

and:

4.) Newsweek Poll, from 10/22-23:

Campaign 2008

View attachment 35502

Notice the date of 10/08 as well. Two weeks after the Couric interview.
Notice the value from 9/10. Quite a difference...



FOUR independent-from-each-other-pollsters, 3 weeks apart from each other: same result vis-a-vis Sarah Palin. The public decided that she was a real dud, the worst VP candidate since Eagleton 1972, just like JoeB131 said.

BTW, for those who want to see every single 2008 poll:

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond FINAL POLL CONVERGENCE No. 12

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond PC 12 - Distillation Obama 356 McCain 182 - however with adjustment Obama 375 McCain 163



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


So, The Rabbi made a claim and questioned my supposition that the Palin VP candidacy sank McCain. I have now presented a mound of data, all of which I collected and sorted through every single day of the Fall 2008 GE campaign. The numbers, and most importantly, the two dates (10/1, 10/7-8) clearly point to two major shifts in the polling averages, and the timing, including the two week polling average window, clearly points to:

a.) the stock market crash of 9/16
b.) Sarah Palin's second interview, from 9/24.

Words have consequences, and so did Sarah Palin's, or her lack of them, to be more specific. McCain probably would have lost, with or without Palin on the ticket, but no doubt her presence caused the losing margin to be larger and probably flipped IN and NC to Obama.

Not only that, polling specifically on the issue of her competence as a possible POTUS should anything have happened to John McCain, had he been elected, was unequivocally clear on this: 3/5 of Americans did not trust her to be able to do the job. There is no way your team can win an election with those kind of numbers.

You just posted the how mainstream media went on the attack. they went after Sarah Palin. Obama himself would have never survived the onslaught of the mainstream media Sarah Palin and to endure, and they are still attacking her and her family. It's sad but we really don't have an independent media in this country anymore

 

[Statistikhengst]

The Rabbi made some outlandish claims on this thread:

2016 Election Prediction Thread Page 9 US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum

-and-

2016 Election Prediction Thread Page 9 US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum

-and-

namely, that Sarah Palin's VP candidacy in 2008 did not sink John McCain's ship.

I gave The Rabbi an opportunity to rethink this viewpoint THREE times, but he refused.

Unfortunately for him, The Rabbi has no idea how closely I followed the 2008 presidential election, including every single presidential poll (national and state level) for that year, just as I did in 2012. What he also does not know is that I did nightly battleground reports starting on 9/23/2008 and running every night until election night. Those battleground reports ran for 42 nights straight.

This is critical, for the second Palin set of interviews that was so disastrous happened on 9/24 and we can see the ripple effect of this interview very clearly.

So, some key dates to remember:

8/29/2008: Sarah Palin's candidacy announced by McCain at Wright State University, Fairborn (Dayton), OH, in the middle of the DEMOCRATIC National Convention, breaking with decency and convention.

9/11/2008: Sarah Palin's interview with Charlie Gibson is aired.

9/16/2008: The Stock Market melts-down.

9/24/2008: Sarah Palin's interviews with Katie Couric are aired.

Two more things to note:

1.) I did 2 week polling intervals to average polls, so the effects of any one event are likely to be seen STARTING circa 10-14 days after an event. And the full effect should be reflected in the averages between 14 and 21 days after an event. That's how polling aggregates work.

2.) Poll release dates are not the same as the polling dates themselves. A poll dated from 10/02 may have been conducted from 9/27-28, for instance. But rarely is a presidential poll released more than 7 days after the actual polling time frame. Most are released within 1-2 days after the polling actually took place.

This was the projected EV map as of September 1, 2008:

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond Projected EV map - Obama vs. McCain based on Poll Convergence 7

Obama 275 / McCain 221 / Tossup 42


Compared to 9/22:

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond Based on PC8 Obama 269 McCain 265 Tossup 4

Obama 269 / McCain 265 / Tossup 4

In all of the composites for 2008, this is the closest that McCain ever got to Obama: 265.

This was the projected EV map as of September 22, 2008, for the first three weeks of September. This map was created 6 days after the stock market crash, but two weeks after the first polling results from the announcement of Sarah Palin's VP candidacy started coming in. Remember, she was announced on 8/29 and the first polling results came in around 9/6, so, the two week time frame I mentioned is important here. And, polling based on the stock market crash, which most people did not really register yet, had yet to come in:



This seems counterintuitive, but remember, good polling averages are usually over two-week spans; this reduces a lot of statistical bumps. This high water mark for McCain represents his convention bounce, the pick of Palin, but before the public started to give input on the stock market crash and Palin's 2nd interview, which had not yet happened.

Now, for reference, here is the first battleground report, for 9/23, two days after the last EV map I reported (269/265):

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond BATTLEGROUND STATISTICAL REPORT 09 23

On 9/23, IN, NV, FL, VA and OH were leaning slightly to McCain.

On, 9/28:

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond Battleground State REPORT 09 28 compared to PC8 from 09 21.

the composite for Virginia moved from McCain to Obama and never looked back. That was 4 days after the disastrous Palin interview, but no real polling results had come out yet.

On 10/1/2008, 7 days after the Palin interview and after a lot of weekend polls came through, the battleground picture looked like this:

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond BATTLEGROUND STATE REPORT 10 01

And the EV projection,which had been Obama 269/McCain 265/tossup 4 just nine days before, became:

Obama 311 / McCain 202 /tossups 25

And the tossups were OH and NV. In between 9/28 and 10/01, in the days following the Palin interview and also TWO weeks after the stock market crash of 9/16, OH, NH, CO and FL moved from McCain to Obama (though OH was so lean, I classified it as tossup).

So, 10/01 is turning point no. 1, exactly TWO WEEKS after the stock market crash, and by this time, all polls from before 9/16 (stock market crash) had been cycled out of the averages.

Two days later, on 10/03:

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond BATTLEGROUND STATE REPORT 10 03

NV and NC moved from the McCain column to the Obama column and there was a major uptick for Obama in NH.

On 10/05, I put out a posting explaining my weighting method for all states, a method that I copied from a CONSERVATIVE electoral blogger with a very successful website.

10/07 was almost exactly TWO WEEKS after the Palin/Couric interviews were aired, and this battleground report therefore only included polls released AFTER the interviews:

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond BATTLEGROUND STATE REPORT 10 07

EV projection as of 10/7:

Obama 353 / McCain 185 / tossup 11
(the tossup was Missouri)

On that day, the only state of all the states that Obama won in 2008 that was not yet in his column was: Indiana.

353 + 11 = 364, plus NE-02 (which was only polled once or twice as an individual congressional district) = 365.

On 10/11, I noted that the campaign was going so well for Obama that he opened more offices in Omaha, Nebraska (NE-02):

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond WOW Obama really IS fighting for NE-02

On 10/16, I posted my "Poll Convergence" no. 10 - a complete analysis of all fifty states, not just the battlegrounds:

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond Distillation of PC 10 Obama 349 McCain 174 Tossup 15

EV projection as of 10/16:

Obama 349 / McCain 185 / tossup 15
(the tossup was North Carolina

You can read every single battleground report and distillation of a poll convergence, it is all there for all to read.

There is no doubt that there were two major turning points in aggregate polling: October 1st, and October 7th/8th.



There were also specific polls about the Palin candidacy, specifically, about her competence:

1.) Skepticism of Palin Growing Poll Finds

With the vice presidential candidates set to square off today in their only scheduled debate, public assessments of Sarah Palin's readiness have plummeted, and she may now be a drag on the Republican ticket among key voter groups, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll...The 60 percent who now see Palin as insufficiently experienced to step into the presidency is steeply higher than in a Post-ABC poll after her nomination early last month. Democrats and Republicans alike are now more apt to doubt her qualifications, but the biggest shift has come among independents.

And:

2.) Inside Obama s Sweeping Victory Pew Research Center

Sarah Palin’s impact on McCain’s fortunes will no doubt be long debated, and the results of the exit polls are somewhat mixed. Fully 60% of Americans casting ballots said that Palin is not qualified to be president should it be necessary; 81% of these voters favored Obama. Yet those who cited Palin’s selection as a factor in their vote — 60% of all voters — favored McCain by 56% to 43%.

and:

3.) http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/31/us/politics/31poll.html

A growing number of voters have concluded that Senator John McCain’s running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, is not qualified to be vice president, weighing down the Republican ticket in the last days of the campaign, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll...

....All told, 59 percent of voters surveyed said Ms. Palin was not prepared for the job, up nine percentage points since the beginning of the month. Nearly a third of voters polled said the vice-presidential selection would be a major factor influencing their vote for president, and those voters broadly favor Senator Barack Obama, the Democratic nominee.

And in a possible indication that the choice of Ms. Palin has hurt Mr. McCain’s image, voters said they had much more confidence in Mr. Obama to pick qualified people for his administration than they did in Mr. McCain.

and:

4.) Newsweek Poll, from 10/22-23:

Campaign 2008

View attachment 35502

Notice the date of 10/08 as well. Two weeks after the Couric interview.
Notice the value from 9/10. Quite a difference...



FOUR independent-from-each-other-pollsters, 3 weeks apart from each other: same result vis-a-vis Sarah Palin. The public decided that she was a real dud, the worst VP candidate since Eagleton 1972, just like JoeB131 said.

BTW, for those who want to see every single 2008 poll:

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond FINAL POLL CONVERGENCE No. 12

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond PC 12 - Distillation Obama 356 McCain 182 - however with adjustment Obama 375 McCain 163



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


So, The Rabbi made a claim and questioned my supposition that the Palin VP candidacy sank McCain. I have now presented a mound of data, all of which I collected and sorted through every single day of the Fall 2008 GE campaign. The numbers, and most importantly, the two dates (10/1, 10/7-8) clearly point to two major shifts in the polling averages, and the timing, including the two week polling average window, clearly points to:

a.) the stock market crash of 9/16
b.) Sarah Palin's second interview, from 9/24.

Words have consequences, and so did Sarah Palin's, or her lack of them, to be more specific. McCain probably would have lost, with or without Palin on the ticket, but no doubt her presence caused the losing margin to be larger and probably flipped IN and NC to Obama.

Not only that, polling specifically on the issue of her competence as a possible POTUS should anything have happened to John McCain, had he been elected, was unequivocally clear on this: 3/5 of Americans did not trust her to be able to do the job. There is no way your team can win an election with those kind of numbers.

You just posted the how mainstream media went on the attack. they went after Sarah Palin. Obama himself would have never survived the onslaught of the mainstream media Sarah Palin and to endure, and they are still attacking her and her family. It's sad but we really don't have an independent media in this country anymore

You completely ,and I mean, completely missed the point. Why oh why am I not surprised...

 

[Statistikhengst]

Actually, I think that we should be concentrating on Bachmann today. Tomorrow she will no longer be in Congress. Where else will we go to get our revisionist history, like when she told us that the founding fathers ended slavery?

Article 1, Section 9 authorized Congress to ban the importation of slaves, which it did in 1808.

Which of course just immediately stopped slavery in the South... NOT.

Think again, very slowly.

 

[JoeB131]

And then the old fart fell asleep during the meeting he was gonna "save".

Having lived in AZ for more than 25 years, I already despised him so there really wasn't much he could have done to get my vote. Seriously, his talent is self-aggrandizement and getting reelected with promises he never keeps. Oh yeah, and throwing good money after bad.

Actually, McCain is a good man. He served his country when a lot of politicians like Clinton and Dubya Bush found ways to avoid the war. Does he have a big ego? Yup. Occupational hazard. They all have big egos. Even Obama.

To be fair, the Rs threw SimpleSarah into the deep end before they had vetted her. If they had done their job, they would have known that she wasn't qualified to do more than deliver one line barbs and write notes on her hand.

On paper, she actually looked pretty good. she took on the Murkowski political machine and won. she supported a lot of reforms, and she actually governed as a moderate those first two years. And she was woefully unprepared for the big time.

Not many could have beaten Obama. He was the right man at the right time and he's done a good job.

Um, not really. Frankly, the country would have been far better served by someone like Hillary who knew how the game was played in Washington.

 

[Jroc]

The Rabbi made some outlandish claims on this thread:

2016 Election Prediction Thread Page 9 US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum

-and-

2016 Election Prediction Thread Page 9 US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum

-and-

namely, that Sarah Palin's VP candidacy in 2008 did not sink John McCain's ship.

I gave The Rabbi an opportunity to rethink this viewpoint THREE times, but he refused.

Unfortunately for him, The Rabbi has no idea how closely I followed the 2008 presidential election, including every single presidential poll (national and state level) for that year, just as I did in 2012. What he also does not know is that I did nightly battleground reports starting on 9/23/2008 and running every night until election night. Those battleground reports ran for 42 nights straight.

This is critical, for the second Palin set of interviews that was so disastrous happened on 9/24 and we can see the ripple effect of this interview very clearly.

So, some key dates to remember:

8/29/2008: Sarah Palin's candidacy announced by McCain at Wright State University, Fairborn (Dayton), OH, in the middle of the DEMOCRATIC National Convention, breaking with decency and convention.

9/11/2008: Sarah Palin's interview with Charlie Gibson is aired.

9/16/2008: The Stock Market melts-down.

9/24/2008: Sarah Palin's interviews with Katie Couric are aired.

Two more things to note:

1.) I did 2 week polling intervals to average polls, so the effects of any one event are likely to be seen STARTING circa 10-14 days after an event. And the full effect should be reflected in the averages between 14 and 21 days after an event. That's how polling aggregates work.

2.) Poll release dates are not the same as the polling dates themselves. A poll dated from 10/02 may have been conducted from 9/27-28, for instance. But rarely is a presidential poll released more than 7 days after the actual polling time frame. Most are released within 1-2 days after the polling actually took place.

This was the projected EV map as of September 1, 2008:

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond Projected EV map - Obama vs. McCain based on Poll Convergence 7

Obama 275 / McCain 221 / Tossup 42


Compared to 9/22:

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond Based on PC8 Obama 269 McCain 265 Tossup 4

Obama 269 / McCain 265 / Tossup 4

In all of the composites for 2008, this is the closest that McCain ever got to Obama: 265.

This was the projected EV map as of September 22, 2008, for the first three weeks of September. This map was created 6 days after the stock market crash, but two weeks after the first polling results from the announcement of Sarah Palin's VP candidacy started coming in. Remember, she was announced on 8/29 and the first polling results came in around 9/6, so, the two week time frame I mentioned is important here. And, polling based on the stock market crash, which most people did not really register yet, had yet to come in:



This seems counterintuitive, but remember, good polling averages are usually over two-week spans; this reduces a lot of statistical bumps. This high water mark for McCain represents his convention bounce, the pick of Palin, but before the public started to give input on the stock market crash and Palin's 2nd interview, which had not yet happened.

Now, for reference, here is the first battleground report, for 9/23, two days after the last EV map I reported (269/265):

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond BATTLEGROUND STATISTICAL REPORT 09 23

On 9/23, IN, NV, FL, VA and OH were leaning slightly to McCain.

On, 9/28:

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond Battleground State REPORT 09 28 compared to PC8 from 09 21.

the composite for Virginia moved from McCain to Obama and never looked back. That was 4 days after the disastrous Palin interview, but no real polling results had come out yet.

On 10/1/2008, 7 days after the Palin interview and after a lot of weekend polls came through, the battleground picture looked like this:

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond BATTLEGROUND STATE REPORT 10 01

And the EV projection,which had been Obama 269/McCain 265/tossup 4 just nine days before, became:

Obama 311 / McCain 202 /tossups 25

And the tossups were OH and NV. In between 9/28 and 10/01, in the days following the Palin interview and also TWO weeks after the stock market crash of 9/16, OH, NH, CO and FL moved from McCain to Obama (though OH was so lean, I classified it as tossup).

So, 10/01 is turning point no. 1, exactly TWO WEEKS after the stock market crash, and by this time, all polls from before 9/16 (stock market crash) had been cycled out of the averages.

Two days later, on 10/03:

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond BATTLEGROUND STATE REPORT 10 03

NV and NC moved from the McCain column to the Obama column and there was a major uptick for Obama in NH.

On 10/05, I put out a posting explaining my weighting method for all states, a method that I copied from a CONSERVATIVE electoral blogger with a very successful website.

10/07 was almost exactly TWO WEEKS after the Palin/Couric interviews were aired, and this battleground report therefore only included polls released AFTER the interviews:

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond BATTLEGROUND STATE REPORT 10 07

EV projection as of 10/7:

Obama 353 / McCain 185 / tossup 11
(the tossup was Missouri)

On that day, the only state of all the states that Obama won in 2008 that was not yet in his column was: Indiana.

353 + 11 = 364, plus NE-02 (which was only polled once or twice as an individual congressional district) = 365.

On 10/11, I noted that the campaign was going so well for Obama that he opened more offices in Omaha, Nebraska (NE-02):

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond WOW Obama really IS fighting for NE-02

On 10/16, I posted my "Poll Convergence" no. 10 - a complete analysis of all fifty states, not just the battlegrounds:

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond Distillation of PC 10 Obama 349 McCain 174 Tossup 15

EV projection as of 10/16:

Obama 349 / McCain 185 / tossup 15
(the tossup was North Carolina

You can read every single battleground report and distillation of a poll convergence, it is all there for all to read.

There is no doubt that there were two major turning points in aggregate polling: October 1st, and October 7th/8th.



There were also specific polls about the Palin candidacy, specifically, about her competence:

1.) Skepticism of Palin Growing Poll Finds

With the vice presidential candidates set to square off today in their only scheduled debate, public assessments of Sarah Palin's readiness have plummeted, and she may now be a drag on the Republican ticket among key voter groups, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll...The 60 percent who now see Palin as insufficiently experienced to step into the presidency is steeply higher than in a Post-ABC poll after her nomination early last month. Democrats and Republicans alike are now more apt to doubt her qualifications, but the biggest shift has come among independents.

And:

2.) Inside Obama s Sweeping Victory Pew Research Center

Sarah Palin’s impact on McCain’s fortunes will no doubt be long debated, and the results of the exit polls are somewhat mixed. Fully 60% of Americans casting ballots said that Palin is not qualified to be president should it be necessary; 81% of these voters favored Obama. Yet those who cited Palin’s selection as a factor in their vote — 60% of all voters — favored McCain by 56% to 43%.

and:

3.) http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/31/us/politics/31poll.html

A growing number of voters have concluded that Senator John McCain’s running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, is not qualified to be vice president, weighing down the Republican ticket in the last days of the campaign, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll...

....All told, 59 percent of voters surveyed said Ms. Palin was not prepared for the job, up nine percentage points since the beginning of the month. Nearly a third of voters polled said the vice-presidential selection would be a major factor influencing their vote for president, and those voters broadly favor Senator Barack Obama, the Democratic nominee.

And in a possible indication that the choice of Ms. Palin has hurt Mr. McCain’s image, voters said they had much more confidence in Mr. Obama to pick qualified people for his administration than they did in Mr. McCain.

and:

4.) Newsweek Poll, from 10/22-23:

Campaign 2008

View attachment 35502

Notice the date of 10/08 as well. Two weeks after the Couric interview.
Notice the value from 9/10. Quite a difference...



FOUR independent-from-each-other-pollsters, 3 weeks apart from each other: same result vis-a-vis Sarah Palin. The public decided that she was a real dud, the worst VP candidate since Eagleton 1972, just like JoeB131 said.

BTW, for those who want to see every single 2008 poll:

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond FINAL POLL CONVERGENCE No. 12

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond PC 12 - Distillation Obama 356 McCain 182 - however with adjustment Obama 375 McCain 163



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


So, The Rabbi made a claim and questioned my supposition that the Palin VP candidacy sank McCain. I have now presented a mound of data, all of which I collected and sorted through every single day of the Fall 2008 GE campaign. The numbers, and most importantly, the two dates (10/1, 10/7-8) clearly point to two major shifts in the polling averages, and the timing, including the two week polling average window, clearly points to:

a.) the stock market crash of 9/16
b.) Sarah Palin's second interview, from 9/24.

Words have consequences, and so did Sarah Palin's, or her lack of them, to be more specific. McCain probably would have lost, with or without Palin on the ticket, but no doubt her presence caused the losing margin to be larger and probably flipped IN and NC to Obama.

Not only that, polling specifically on the issue of her competence as a possible POTUS should anything have happened to John McCain, had he been elected, was unequivocally clear on this: 3/5 of Americans did not trust her to be able to do the job. There is no way your team can win an election with those kind of numbers.

You just posted the how mainstream media went on the attack. they went after Sarah Palin. Obama himself would have never survived the onslaught of the mainstream media Sarah Palin and to endure, and they are still attacking her and her family. It's sad but we really don't have an independent media in this country anymore

You completely ,and I mean, completely missed the point. Why oh why am I not surprised...

 

[Statistikhengst]

The Rabbi made some outlandish claims on this thread:

2016 Election Prediction Thread Page 9 US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum

-and-

2016 Election Prediction Thread Page 9 US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum

-and-

namely, that Sarah Palin's VP candidacy in 2008 did not sink John McCain's ship.

I gave The Rabbi an opportunity to rethink this viewpoint THREE times, but he refused.

Unfortunately for him, The Rabbi has no idea how closely I followed the 2008 presidential election, including every single presidential poll (national and state level) for that year, just as I did in 2012. What he also does not know is that I did nightly battleground reports starting on 9/23/2008 and running every night until election night. Those battleground reports ran for 42 nights straight.

This is critical, for the second Palin set of interviews that was so disastrous happened on 9/24 and we can see the ripple effect of this interview very clearly.

So, some key dates to remember:

8/29/2008: Sarah Palin's candidacy announced by McCain at Wright State University, Fairborn (Dayton), OH, in the middle of the DEMOCRATIC National Convention, breaking with decency and convention.

9/11/2008: Sarah Palin's interview with Charlie Gibson is aired.

9/16/2008: The Stock Market melts-down.

9/24/2008: Sarah Palin's interviews with Katie Couric are aired.

Two more things to note:

1.) I did 2 week polling intervals to average polls, so the effects of any one event are likely to be seen STARTING circa 10-14 days after an event. And the full effect should be reflected in the averages between 14 and 21 days after an event. That's how polling aggregates work.

2.) Poll release dates are not the same as the polling dates themselves. A poll dated from 10/02 may have been conducted from 9/27-28, for instance. But rarely is a presidential poll released more than 7 days after the actual polling time frame. Most are released within 1-2 days after the polling actually took place.

This was the projected EV map as of September 1, 2008:

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond Projected EV map - Obama vs. McCain based on Poll Convergence 7

Obama 275 / McCain 221 / Tossup 42


Compared to 9/22:

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond Based on PC8 Obama 269 McCain 265 Tossup 4

Obama 269 / McCain 265 / Tossup 4

In all of the composites for 2008, this is the closest that McCain ever got to Obama: 265.

This was the projected EV map as of September 22, 2008, for the first three weeks of September. This map was created 6 days after the stock market crash, but two weeks after the first polling results from the announcement of Sarah Palin's VP candidacy started coming in. Remember, she was announced on 8/29 and the first polling results came in around 9/6, so, the two week time frame I mentioned is important here. And, polling based on the stock market crash, which most people did not really register yet, had yet to come in:



This seems counterintuitive, but remember, good polling averages are usually over two-week spans; this reduces a lot of statistical bumps. This high water mark for McCain represents his convention bounce, the pick of Palin, but before the public started to give input on the stock market crash and Palin's 2nd interview, which had not yet happened.

Now, for reference, here is the first battleground report, for 9/23, two days after the last EV map I reported (269/265):

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond BATTLEGROUND STATISTICAL REPORT 09 23

On 9/23, IN, NV, FL, VA and OH were leaning slightly to McCain.

On, 9/28:

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond Battleground State REPORT 09 28 compared to PC8 from 09 21.

the composite for Virginia moved from McCain to Obama and never looked back. That was 4 days after the disastrous Palin interview, but no real polling results had come out yet.

On 10/1/2008, 7 days after the Palin interview and after a lot of weekend polls came through, the battleground picture looked like this:

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond BATTLEGROUND STATE REPORT 10 01

And the EV projection,which had been Obama 269/McCain 265/tossup 4 just nine days before, became:

Obama 311 / McCain 202 /tossups 25

And the tossups were OH and NV. In between 9/28 and 10/01, in the days following the Palin interview and also TWO weeks after the stock market crash of 9/16, OH, NH, CO and FL moved from McCain to Obama (though OH was so lean, I classified it as tossup).

So, 10/01 is turning point no. 1, exactly TWO WEEKS after the stock market crash, and by this time, all polls from before 9/16 (stock market crash) had been cycled out of the averages.

Two days later, on 10/03:

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond BATTLEGROUND STATE REPORT 10 03

NV and NC moved from the McCain column to the Obama column and there was a major uptick for Obama in NH.

On 10/05, I put out a posting explaining my weighting method for all states, a method that I copied from a CONSERVATIVE electoral blogger with a very successful website.

10/07 was almost exactly TWO WEEKS after the Palin/Couric interviews were aired, and this battleground report therefore only included polls released AFTER the interviews:

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond BATTLEGROUND STATE REPORT 10 07

EV projection as of 10/7:

Obama 353 / McCain 185 / tossup 11
(the tossup was Missouri)

On that day, the only state of all the states that Obama won in 2008 that was not yet in his column was: Indiana.

353 + 11 = 364, plus NE-02 (which was only polled once or twice as an individual congressional district) = 365.

On 10/11, I noted that the campaign was going so well for Obama that he opened more offices in Omaha, Nebraska (NE-02):

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond WOW Obama really IS fighting for NE-02

On 10/16, I posted my "Poll Convergence" no. 10 - a complete analysis of all fifty states, not just the battlegrounds:

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond Distillation of PC 10 Obama 349 McCain 174 Tossup 15

EV projection as of 10/16:

Obama 349 / McCain 185 / tossup 15
(the tossup was North Carolina

You can read every single battleground report and distillation of a poll convergence, it is all there for all to read.

There is no doubt that there were two major turning points in aggregate polling: October 1st, and October 7th/8th.



There were also specific polls about the Palin candidacy, specifically, about her competence:

1.) Skepticism of Palin Growing Poll Finds

With the vice presidential candidates set to square off today in their only scheduled debate, public assessments of Sarah Palin's readiness have plummeted, and she may now be a drag on the Republican ticket among key voter groups, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll...The 60 percent who now see Palin as insufficiently experienced to step into the presidency is steeply higher than in a Post-ABC poll after her nomination early last month. Democrats and Republicans alike are now more apt to doubt her qualifications, but the biggest shift has come among independents.

And:

2.) Inside Obama s Sweeping Victory Pew Research Center

Sarah Palin’s impact on McCain’s fortunes will no doubt be long debated, and the results of the exit polls are somewhat mixed. Fully 60% of Americans casting ballots said that Palin is not qualified to be president should it be necessary; 81% of these voters favored Obama. Yet those who cited Palin’s selection as a factor in their vote — 60% of all voters — favored McCain by 56% to 43%.

and:

3.) http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/31/us/politics/31poll.html

A growing number of voters have concluded that Senator John McCain’s running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, is not qualified to be vice president, weighing down the Republican ticket in the last days of the campaign, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll...

....All told, 59 percent of voters surveyed said Ms. Palin was not prepared for the job, up nine percentage points since the beginning of the month. Nearly a third of voters polled said the vice-presidential selection would be a major factor influencing their vote for president, and those voters broadly favor Senator Barack Obama, the Democratic nominee.

And in a possible indication that the choice of Ms. Palin has hurt Mr. McCain’s image, voters said they had much more confidence in Mr. Obama to pick qualified people for his administration than they did in Mr. McCain.

and:

4.) Newsweek Poll, from 10/22-23:

Campaign 2008

View attachment 35502

Notice the date of 10/08 as well. Two weeks after the Couric interview.
Notice the value from 9/10. Quite a difference...



FOUR independent-from-each-other-pollsters, 3 weeks apart from each other: same result vis-a-vis Sarah Palin. The public decided that she was a real dud, the worst VP candidate since Eagleton 1972, just like JoeB131 said.

BTW, for those who want to see every single 2008 poll:

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond FINAL POLL CONVERGENCE No. 12

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond PC 12 - Distillation Obama 356 McCain 182 - however with adjustment Obama 375 McCain 163



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


So, The Rabbi made a claim and questioned my supposition that the Palin VP candidacy sank McCain. I have now presented a mound of data, all of which I collected and sorted through every single day of the Fall 2008 GE campaign. The numbers, and most importantly, the two dates (10/1, 10/7-8) clearly point to two major shifts in the polling averages, and the timing, including the two week polling average window, clearly points to:

a.) the stock market crash of 9/16
b.) Sarah Palin's second interview, from 9/24.

Words have consequences, and so did Sarah Palin's, or her lack of them, to be more specific. McCain probably would have lost, with or without Palin on the ticket, but no doubt her presence caused the losing margin to be larger and probably flipped IN and NC to Obama.

Not only that, polling specifically on the issue of her competence as a possible POTUS should anything have happened to John McCain, had he been elected, was unequivocally clear on this: 3/5 of Americans did not trust her to be able to do the job. There is no way your team can win an election with those kind of numbers.

You just posted the how mainstream media went on the attack. they went after Sarah Palin. Obama himself would have never survived the onslaught of the mainstream media Sarah Palin and to endure, and they are still attacking her and her family. It's sad but we really don't have an independent media in this country anymore

You completely ,and I mean, completely missed the point. Why oh why am I not surprised...

Actually, that video would be good material for yet another RWNJ "we are being persecuted" thread. I think that Jroc is on the case, ladies and germs!