Personal Opinions about the Economy

[DanWyns]

Hi all,
New member here. Trying to get a feel for the joint.

What is your opinion on where the economy is headed?

I have been an intent observer of the economic meltdown for just over a year now, and its fairly obvious that no one really knows how this crisis will play out.
Not the government, or economist, or businessmen or (especially) the public. 'Guesses' range from a couple more quarters of negative growth with a rebound sometime next year to a complete implosion of the worlds fiat currencies with a 'mad max' scenario to follow. There are some 'doomers' out there hoping for the later, so that their gold, rice and bullet purchases prove to be proper planning, but the rest of us are hoping that Helicopter Ben and the Big O will push the right buttons, and reverse this downward spiral.

The situation in the US is dire, but Europe looks even worse. Several European countries are perilously close to a financial collapse, should one fall would an avalanche begin?
Again, no one really knows. We are in uncharted waters, and thus far the only 'solution' has been the creation of additional debt, to fix a collapsing debt system; which hardly seems reassuring.

Anyway, I was just curious what your outlook for the future looks like.

Thanks,
Dan

 

[Kevin_Kennedy]

So long as the government continues to do all the wrong things I'd say we've got a long, rough road ahead of us.

 

[Ravi]

Six months with no real improvement then another massive stimulus bill sans tax cuts. Then a gradual return to normalcy.

 

[jillian]

Hi all,
New member here. Trying to get a feel for the joint.

What is your opinion on where the economy is headed?

I have been an intent observer of the economic meltdown for just over a year now, and its fairly obvious that no one really knows how this crisis will play out.
Not the government, or economist, or businessmen or (especially) the public. 'Guesses' range from a couple more quarters of negative growth with a rebound sometime next year to a complete implosion of the worlds fiat currencies with a 'mad max' scenario to follow. There are some 'doomers' out there hoping for the later, so that their gold, rice and bullet purchases prove to be proper planning, but the rest of us are hoping that Helicopter Ben and the Big O will push the right buttons, and reverse this downward spiral.

The situation in the US is dire, but Europe looks even worse. Several European countries are perilously close to a financial collapse, should one fall would an avalanche begin?
Again, no one really knows. We are in uncharted waters, and thus far the only 'solution' has been the creation of additional debt, to fix a collapsing debt system; which hardly seems reassuring.

Anyway, I was just curious what your outlook for the future looks like.

Thanks,
Dan

I think your observations are dead on...

my own bet would be a bad 2009, then things start to improve come 2010. i also think we at least partially nationalize the banks and then sell them back to the private sector at a profit sometime in 2012.

 

[Truthmatters]

Six months with no real improvement then another massive stimulus bill sans tax cuts. Then a gradual return to normalcy.

You have got it Ravi.

This will have to be done full scale just like FDR did.

He had the economy responding and then the right talked him into trying to balance the budget instead and in 1937 the results slid and he had to reinstate the stimulus.

It was all working as planned until we got an even bigger stimulus prodject going called WWII.

It was governmet spending for stimulus that worled last time and will work this time too.

 

[Charles_Main]

Six months with no real improvement then another massive stimulus bill sans tax cuts. Then a gradual return to normalcy.

You have got it Ravi.

This will have to be done full scale just like FDR did.

He had the economy responding and then the right talked him into trying to balance the budget instead and in 1937 the results slid and he had to reinstate the stimulus.

It was all working as planned until we got an even bigger stimulus prodject going called WWII.

It was governmet spending for stimulus that worled last time and will work this time too.

You people are either the most ignorant people on earth, or just liars.

It is so bad it is not even worth arguing about.

 

[PoliticalChic]

Hi all,
New member here. Trying to get a feel for the joint.

What is your opinion on where the economy is headed?
The situation in the US is dire, but Europe looks even worse. Several European countries are perilously close to a financial collapse, should one fall would an avalanche begin?
Thanks,
Dan

Greetings and welcome. I think you will find folks here who have a number of perspectives . Actually, I appreciate you bringing up Europe, as well as the US in this crisis.

I've been apprehensive about the direction of geopolitics, in particular Iran. the EU, and Russia, and see pluses and minuses here. The downturn may be helpful in the short run, as Iran needs a high oil price to keep feeding its population as well as feeding its nuclear program.

Russian was flexing its muscle, by stepping into Georgia, and threatening the gas and oil supply for Europe, but now that the price of oil is down, it has lost 2/3 of the value of its stock market and needs $200-300 billion for financial services and corporate borrowing. It needs investment from Germany, so we may see an easing of tensioin in Balkans and Caucasus.

The US needs benign Russia if it intends to solve problems in Afghanistan, and Iraq.
So the crisis may have salutary effects.

But if it is a replay of the depression, then it may be an end for Bradford & Bingley, Hypo, Fortis, Dexia, UBS, etc. and other old world resources.

I think we may see quite some time before we see global equanimity.