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Patriots overwhelmingly better than every team in not fumbling since 2007.

Theowl32

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According to ex NFL athletes like Jerome Bettis, the deflated balls help most significantly in not fumbling.
According to well-researched and rather mind-boggling data compiled by Warren Sharp of sharpfootballanalysis.com, the New England Patriots have had fumble rates for years that almost defy the law of physics, not to mention probability.

Not only were the Patriots, who are under suspicion for intentionally deflating their footballs in the AFC Championship Game, only the third team in the last 25 years to have never lost a fumble in a home game, but they have a fumble rate over the last five seasons that is more than just a little suspicious.

Should be pointed out here that Sharp does not necessarily suggest any cheating has taken place over the years. He's simply presenting data that shows how little the Patriots have fumbled compared to the rest of the league and how much of a statistical improbability that can be, especially considering how many plays the Patriots run in their hybrid Chip Kelly-style attack.

The Patriots average 187 plays per fumble. compared the league average of 105.

According to a data scientist Sharp quoted, "based on the assumption that fumbles per play follow a normal distribution, you’d expect to see, according to random fluctuation, the results that the Patriots have gotten over this period, once in 16,233.77 instances."

That, according to Sharp is like "winning a raffle where you have a 0.0000616 probability to win. Which in other words, it's very unlikely that it’s a coincidence."


The data is broken down many different ways, including season-by-season and in just wet-weather games, where the Patriots are almost as good, and in some cases better.

Sharp Football Analysis

Read the bold faced.

BTW, you should take a look at Benjarvus Green Ellis fumble stats. With the Pats he hardly ever fumbled. He was notoriously steady and the stats indicate that.

He left the Pats, went to Cincinnati and guess what happened. Go ahead. Take ONE GUESS.

Here let me tell you. From 2008 till 2011 he did not fumble the ball once. In FOUR YEARS FOR THE PATS HE DID NOT FUMBLE THE BALL ONCE. Two seasons with the Bengals he fumbled the ball 5 times and lost 4 of them.

Yeah, probably a coincidence.

What cheaters the Pats have been.
 
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Book of Jeremiah

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So they have been cheating for years and getting away with it. Well that day is over.
 

Book of Jeremiah

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Very informative story, Owl! Thank you! I'm feeling more encouraged for the Seahawks every day! The Patriots are definitely getting the pat down! Aren't they?
 
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Theowl32

Theowl32

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According to this Warren Sharp, here are the Pats fumble stats since 2007.

Fumble-Chart-4.png
 

Book of Jeremiah

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So they have been cheating for years and getting away with it. Well that day is over.
I wish we could say the same about Democrats cheating in elections. :smartass:
I certainly agree with you, Mudwhistle. But you know what Stalin said, right? He said, What is extraordinarily important is this - who will count the votes and how.

(that's how they get away with it)
 

Sunni Man

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Very informative story, Owl! Thank you! I'm feeling more encouraged for the Seahawks every day! The Patriots are definitely getting the pat down! Aren't they?
The evil Seahawks share the first letter of their name with Satan.

I don't see how any Christian person could be a fan of the devil's team the Seahawks. ..... :cool:

.
 

HUGGY

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According to ex NFL athletes like Jerome Bettis, the deflated balls help most significantly in not fumbling.
According to well-researched and rather mind-boggling data compiled by Warren Sharp of sharpfootballanalysis.com, the New England Patriots have had fumble rates for years that almost defy the law of physics, not to mention probability.

Not only were the Patriots, who are under suspicion for intentionally deflating their footballs in the AFC Championship Game, only the third team in the last 25 years to have never lost a fumble in a home game, but they have a fumble rate over the last five seasons that is more than just a little suspicious.

Should be pointed out here that Sharp does not necessarily suggest any cheating has taken place over the years. He's simply presenting data that shows how little the Patriots have fumbled compared to the rest of the league and how much of a statistical improbability that can be, especially considering how many plays the Patriots run in their hybrid Chip Kelly-style attack.

The Patriots average 187 plays per fumble. compared the league average of 105.

According to a data scientist Sharp quoted, "based on the assumption that fumbles per play follow a normal distribution, you’d expect to see, according to random fluctuation, the results that the Patriots have gotten over this period, once in 16,233.77 instances."

That, according to Sharp is like "winning a raffle where you have a 0.0000616 probability to win. Which in other words, it's very unlikely that it’s a coincidence."


The data is broken down many different ways, including season-by-season and in just wet-weather games, where the Patriots are almost as good, and in some cases better.

Sharp Football Analysis

Read the bold faced.

BTW, you should take a look at Benjarvus Green Ellis fumble stats. With the Pats he hardly ever fumbled. He was notoriously steady and the stats indicate that.

He left the Pats, went to Cincinnati and guess what happened. Go ahead. Take ONE GUESS.

Here let me tell you. From 2008 till 2011 he did not fumble the ball once. In FOUR YEARS FOR THE PATS HE DID NOT FUMBLE THE BALL ONCE. Two seasons with the Bengals he fumbled the ball 5 times and lost 4 of them.

Yeah, probably a coincidence.

What cheaters the Pats have been.

What a great analysis. This is one of the most significant studies about the probability of fumbling which affects the outcomes of many games. IMHO this one significant aspect has more to do with winning than any one Patriot's player's efforts.

If your opponent gives up the ball more often OR your team constantly DOESN"T give up the ball as often as the predicted norm YOU GET MORE POSSESSIONS. AKA more opportunities to score than your opponent.
 

HUGGY

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Let's see how well the Patriots do when all of their sneaky tricks are under scrutiny in a stadium where they don't have control over the environment.

The Patriots are a good team. It appears they have used methods in the stadiums in which they have control that give them an unfair and illegal advantage over their opponents.

They will have no such advantages on Sunday. Now they have to play a team that got where they are by actually playing better than their opponents on the same field and sports equipment.
 

mack20

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Here's an interesting article that demonstrates how Sharp's analysis is flawed:
Comments on Warren Sharp s Patriots Fumble Analysis Drew Fustin

Here's the big one that stands out to me: Sharp's analysis eliminates ALL games played by dome teams, not just the games played indoors. So a game between the Falcons and Patriots at Gillette counts toward the Patriots, but not the Falcons.

I'd recommend the read for anyone wishing to be better informed.
 

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