Official CDC projections for COVID -- Updated regularly..

[dblack]

According to the ‘experts’ we should be seeing almost 1,000 deaths a day in the US right now. What am I missing?

View attachment 317877

Curve is SO STEEP at APril 1st that the REPORTING won't hit until April 4th or 6th... THat's probably what's happening..

It took about 3 weeks for the mitigation tactics (social distancing, etc...) to have an effect in Wuhan. I suspect the curve will start to flatten out in few days.

Take a look at the projection in the Wash State study I posted in the OP.. Next 10 DAYS is gonna be rough if they're right.

April 16th is the peak.

But where will they be. Right now, NY+NJ = 50% of deaths. And it appears that % will increase as their cases seem to be skyrocketing.

That's where it will be really really really bad.

I'm really surprised San Francisco is doing so well. Especially with so many homeless. But then, they may be dying off and no one gives shit.

I've got a conspiracy theory about "the COVID miracle" in California, but I think I'll keep that to myself right now.. PRETTY SURE that after the cloud passes, we'll find surprising news about WHEN COVID ACTUALLY HIT California..

OMG!!! Don't tell me. Bohemian Grove! Amirite?

 

[dblack]

According to the ‘experts’ we should be seeing almost 1,000 deaths a day in the US right now. What am I missing?

View attachment 317877

Curve is SO STEEP at APril 1st that the REPORTING won't hit until April 4th or 6th... THat's probably what's happening..

It took about 3 weeks for the mitigation tactics (social distancing, etc...) to have an effect in Wuhan. I suspect the curve will start to flatten out in few days.

Take a look at the projection in the Wash State study I posted in the OP.. Next 10 DAYS is gonna be rough if they're right.

April 16th is the peak.

But where will they be. Right now, NY+NJ = 50% of deaths. And it appears that % will increase as their cases seem to be skyrocketing.

That's where it will be really really really bad.

I'm really surprised San Francisco is doing so well. Especially with so many homeless. But then, they may be dying off and no one gives shit.

I don't know what common denominators you could find between NYC and SF. I know that the city would swell by a factor 2 or 3 with everyone coming into the city. So you'd think that bay area would be going apeshit with infection.

So why isn't it.

And why is New York dying ?

I keep hoping their numbers will turn. Hoping against all hope.

I think the main thing is that they were just more keyed into it, because there are so many Chinese immigrants and nationals there. They imposed restrictions long before NYC did.

 

[Pogo]

According to the ‘experts’ we should be seeing almost 1,000 deaths a day in the US right now. What am I missing?

View attachment 317877

You can be our Doctor Doom.

Did a thousand Americans die yesterday from this bug?

Almost.

to get to the numbers of dead, there will have to be 10,000 a day. do you think that's going to happen? do you really? we know that only 10% die with current known figures. 10% of 190,000 is only 19,000. Not 100,000 or 240,000.

Their numbers

You are doing math without all the numbers. That never works out, dummy.

The president and his team told you that we'd lose 120,000 to 240,000 people to this virus if we do everything right.

Why don't you believe them?

because the numbers aren't there. that's why. I'm looking at the numbers the CDC is putting out, not mine. right now the numbers show a 2.1% will die and that's at 4,000 with 190,000 infected. Now double the infected count and the number of deaths only go to 8,000. Dude, how the fk are you going to get to 100,000 let alone 240,000. If this jumps, then self isolation didn't work. And that's absurd to any logic thinking math knowledgeable person. Trump's listening to the experts, they are wrong. They will end up wrong.

How many people in this nation have contracted this virus?

Do you consider it a death sentence?

Nope.

How many have contracted the virus?

In the US, over 200K
And we have one of the lowest death rates in the developed world.

You don't know the death rate until it's over.

Member how your fake numbers about the UK went down in flames?

 

[flacaltenn]

According to the ‘experts’ we should be seeing almost 1,000 deaths a day in the US right now. What am I missing?

View attachment 317877

Curve is SO STEEP at APril 1st that the REPORTING won't hit until April 4th or 6th... THat's probably what's happening..

It took about 3 weeks for the mitigation tactics (social distancing, etc...) to have an effect in Wuhan. I suspect the curve will start to flatten out in few days.

Take a look at the projection in the Wash State study I posted in the OP.. Next 10 DAYS is gonna be rough if they're right.

April 16th is the peak.

But where will they be. Right now, NY+NJ = 50% of deaths. And it appears that % will increase as their cases seem to be skyrocketing.

That's where it will be really really really bad.

Folks make strange decisions in science about estimates.. If you take a metro like Chicago (say) that isn't even ON the radar really as a COVID bubble -- you COULD assume it's gonna stay that way...

But when you work for FEMA or the CDC -- YOU CANNOT TELL THE PUBLIC in Illinois THAT.. It's an assumption and it works against the mitigation plan.. So "worst case" numbers ARE on the Menu until the peak happens...

 

[Sun Devil 92]

According to the ‘experts’ we should be seeing almost 1,000 deaths a day in the US right now. What am I missing?

View attachment 317877

Curve is SO STEEP at APril 1st that the REPORTING won't hit until April 4th or 6th... THat's probably what's happening..

It took about 3 weeks for the mitigation tactics (social distancing, etc...) to have an effect in Wuhan. I suspect the curve will start to flatten out in few days.

Take a look at the projection in the Wash State study I posted in the OP.. Next 10 DAYS is gonna be rough if they're right.

April 16th is the peak.

But where will they be. Right now, NY+NJ = 50% of deaths. And it appears that % will increase as their cases seem to be skyrocketing.

That's where it will be really really really bad.

I'm really surprised San Francisco is doing so well. Especially with so many homeless. But then, they may be dying off and no one gives shit.

I don't know what common denominators you could find between NYC and SF. I know that the city would swell by a factor 2 or 3 with everyone coming into the city. So you'd think that bay area would be going apeshit with infection.

So why isn't it.

And why is New York dying ?

I keep hoping their numbers will turn. Hoping against all hope.

I think the main thing is that they were just more keyed into it, because there are so many Chinese immigrants and nationals there. They imposed restrictions long before NYC did.

China is well connected to S.F. Like you I am surprised S.F is doing so well (relatively speaking).

They could explode any day.

 

[Pogo]

According to the ‘experts’ we should be seeing almost 1,000 deaths a day in the US right now. What am I missing?

View attachment 317877

You can be our Doctor Doom.

Did a thousand Americans die yesterday from this bug?

Almost.

to get to the numbers of dead, there will have to be 10,000 a day. do you think that's going to happen? do you really? we know that only 10% die with current known figures. 10% of 190,000 is only 19,000. Not 100,000 or 240,000.

Their numbers

You are doing math without all the numbers. That never works out, dummy.

The president and his team told you that we'd lose 120,000 to 240,000 people to this virus if we do everything right.

Why don't you believe them?

because the numbers aren't there. that's why. I'm looking at the numbers the CDC is putting out, not mine. right now the numbers show a 2.1% will die and that's at 4,000 with 190,000 infected. Now double the infected count and the number of deaths only go to 8,000. Dude, how the fk are you going to get to 100,000 let alone 240,000. If this jumps, then self isolation didn't work. And that's absurd to any logic thinking math knowledgeable person. Trump's listening to the experts, they are wrong. They will end up wrong.

How many people in this nation have contracted this virus?

why? we're all sequestered, how are they going to spread it? the data is the data. you don't believe the experts?

No. We are not all sequestered.

huh? I thought that was the directive from the experts? your state isn't social distancing? dude, I've been stuck in my house now for 17 days. how the fk would I spread anything? millions and millions aren't going out, doing what we were told to do, even though I don't agree with it. You can't point your finger at me then. but do tell how does this spread if we're all social distancing.

Dude....are you playing dumber than usual?

Only a handful of states have issued "stay at home" orders. People are still gathering in groups. More importantly....we have not done enough tests to have ANY FUCKING IDEA how many infected people there are. We acted late and we acted insufficiently. The models that Fauci is using take all of that into account. Figure it out.

I agree. Most people just think it’s allergies and never go to the doc.
Which further validated this bug doesn’t justify the draconian reaction taken.

Doesn't mean that AT ALL. What it does mean is we (and others everywhere) have carriers walking around with little or no symptoms who are nevertheless passing the virus on and therefore SPREADING it. And that will continue as long as testing is limited to only those with symptoms, which leaves up to HALF of those carrying to spread at will. Hence your "draconian reaction".

 

[Sun Devil 92]

According to the ‘experts’ we should be seeing almost 1,000 deaths a day in the US right now. What am I missing?

View attachment 317877

Curve is SO STEEP at APril 1st that the REPORTING won't hit until April 4th or 6th... THat's probably what's happening..

It took about 3 weeks for the mitigation tactics (social distancing, etc...) to have an effect in Wuhan. I suspect the curve will start to flatten out in few days.

Take a look at the projection in the Wash State study I posted in the OP.. Next 10 DAYS is gonna be rough if they're right.

April 16th is the peak.

But where will they be. Right now, NY+NJ = 50% of deaths. And it appears that % will increase as their cases seem to be skyrocketing.

That's where it will be really really really bad.

Folks make strange decisions in science about estimates.. If you take a metro like Chicago (say) that isn't even ON the radar really as a COVID bubble -- you COULD assume it's gonna stay that way...

But when you work for FEMA or the CDC -- YOU CANNOT TELL THE PUBLIC in Illinois THAT.. It's an assumption and it works against the mitigation plan.. So "worst case" numbers ARE on the Menu until the peak happens...

Agreed,

But it could potentially be a false peak.

Spain was on a 4 day decline in new cases. It's turned up again.

 

[flacaltenn]

According to the ‘experts’ we should be seeing almost 1,000 deaths a day in the US right now. What am I missing?

View attachment 317877

Curve is SO STEEP at APril 1st that the REPORTING won't hit until April 4th or 6th... THat's probably what's happening..

It took about 3 weeks for the mitigation tactics (social distancing, etc...) to have an effect in Wuhan. I suspect the curve will start to flatten out in few days.

Take a look at the projection in the Wash State study I posted in the OP.. Next 10 DAYS is gonna be rough if they're right.

April 16th is the peak.

But where will they be. Right now, NY+NJ = 50% of deaths. And it appears that % will increase as their cases seem to be skyrocketing.

That's where it will be really really really bad.

I'm really surprised San Francisco is doing so well. Especially with so many homeless. But then, they may be dying off and no one gives shit.

I don't know what common denominators you could find between NYC and SF. I know that the city would swell by a factor 2 or 3 with everyone coming into the city. So you'd think that bay area would be going apeshit with infection.

So why isn't it.

And why is New York dying ?

I keep hoping their numbers will turn. Hoping against all hope.

I think the main thing is that they were just more keyed into it, because there are so many Chinese immigrants and nationals there. They imposed restrictions long before NYC did.

China is well connected to S.F. Like you I am surprised S.F is doing so well (relatively speaking).

They could explode any day.

OR -- they did a couple months back and the numbers went into the SEASONAL FLU stats.. I have a lot of contacts there. There was an AWFUL outbreak of something NOBODY ever experienced about early January.. That's my conspiracy theory and I'm gonna STFU about that until the post Mort analysis is done...

LAX SFO and San Diego are the CENTRAL hubs for travel to/from Asia.. I cannot imagine it didn't get there closer to the time that China peaked..

Not just TRAVEL -- but the number of China companies doing Research/Development in Silicon Valley and Cali Universities is very large... It's BUSINESS as well.


Now I'll drop that...

 

[Bo Didleysquat]

Conservative media better stop calling it the Chinese virus. Or else they will be banned and sued for injuries and death of the Asian community.

Coping With COVID-19 Crisis: Hollywood’s Asian Community Calls On Allies For Support As Coronavirus Misinformation Incites Hate

Editors’ Note: With full acknowledgment of the big-picture implications of a pandemic that has already claimed thousands of lives, cratered global economies and closed international borders, Deadline’s Coping With COVID-19 Crisis series is a forum for those in the entertainment space grappling...

www.yahoo.com

Who cares about people dying?

 

[LoneLaugher]

According to the ‘experts’ we should be seeing almost 1,000 deaths a day in the US right now. What am I missing?

View attachment 317877

You can be our Doctor Doom.

Did a thousand Americans die yesterday from this bug?

Almost.

to get to the numbers of dead, there will have to be 10,000 a day. do you think that's going to happen? do you really? we know that only 10% die with current known figures. 10% of 190,000 is only 19,000. Not 100,000 or 240,000.

Their numbers

You are doing math without all the numbers. That never works out, dummy.

The president and his team told you that we'd lose 120,000 to 240,000 people to this virus if we do everything right.

Why don't you believe them?

because the numbers aren't there. that's why. I'm looking at the numbers the CDC is putting out, not mine. right now the numbers show a 2.1% will die and that's at 4,000 with 190,000 infected. Now double the infected count and the number of deaths only go to 8,000. Dude, how the fk are you going to get to 100,000 let alone 240,000. If this jumps, then self isolation didn't work. And that's absurd to any logic thinking math knowledgeable person. Trump's listening to the experts, they are wrong. They will end up wrong.

How many people in this nation have contracted this virus?

Answer is NOBODY knows. And will probably NOT know until way after this is over for the year..

BUT CDC is ESTIMATING that the #infected is about 2 times the #reported.. That's because VERY many people are mild or asymptomatic and never even SEEK med attention..

AFTER the fact, when they can do random population samples on antibodies, they will get CLOSER to the actual #infected.

Exactly.

 

[eagle1462010]

I was hoping for this thread to be a place to get decent links.............can you guys take your mud slinging to another thread.

Another Thread

He you guys go.......stop fucking up the data thread.............we only want links there I thought. So stop being assholes for a few DANG MINUTES. Thank you dick heads.

www.usmessageboard.com

I've done nothing but reference the data in the thread. how is that wrong?

mud slinging .......I was hoping this was a reference library thread.............not a slinging match like all........

talk to those flinging the mud. Now you're doing it.

Well shit......LOL

 

[LoneLaugher]

The president and his team told you that we'd lose 120,000 to 240,000 people to this virus if we do everything right.

Except that if listened to docs from CDC -- 120K to 240K is largely based on GUESSES as to whether OTHER major metros will bubble up.... Right now -- it's just NYC metro and New Orleans. And NOBODY KNOWS THIS... Those numbers are not written in stone...

Death RATE will go up when the great American Med system becomes LOCALLY overwhelmed. For the majority of the country OUTSIDE those metros -- that's not likely to happen..

So the CDC docs got up before and after Trump and laid all that out.. NOBODY should be taking those numbers LITERALLY or saying those numbers are "if we do EVERYTHING right"..

I KNOW it would nearly kill you to sit thru any of those 2 or 3 a day press conferences at the WH -- but they are the PUBLIC LIFELINE for information on the numbers and the govt response..

Dude. I'm listening to every second of every WH press conference. It doesn't kill me to be informed of to see where an attempt to misinformed me takes place.

 

[sparky]

We usually buy about $300 worth of triple-report mortars apiece and beer, think that will be affordable this year?

or next year.....?

1-2 more weeks and a Depression is guaranteed.

gawd yes....

If this jumps, then self isolation didn't work.

and if it does not, then they can claim it did work....

these pukes are rooting for people to die.

i've seen a lot of people die up close & personal, it sucks....

I KNOW it would nearly kill you to sit thru any of those 2 or 3 a day press conferences at the WH -- but they are the PUBLIC LIFELINE for information on the numbers and the govt response..

nothing better to do....& i've horded all the cheap whiskey i can....

Maybe folks will do more to RETAIN their Civil Liberties after a dose of "the Government is here to HELP you"...

We got the national guards and that ain’t all
We got the CDC testing us at the mall
Gman curfew's got a hold of me, too
I got the jack boot pneumonia and the boggie wuhan flu

Got all my flights canceled to China ‘til fall
Went for a dump but there’s no TP at all
Gman minions got me locked down too
I got the jack boot pneumonia and the boggie wuhan flu


I Wanna sneeze but I’m afraid I’ll show
Telling symptoms fema says got to go
Gman curfew's got a hold of me, too
I got the jack boot pneumonia and the boggie wuhan flu


Gotta quarantine for what I don’t know
My nose is runnin' but my fevers low
Gman curfew's got a hold of me, too
I got the jack boot pneumonia and the boggie wuhan flu


I gotta a potus sezs he’s got the plan
He was on TV , claims he is the man
Gman curfew's got me feelin’ blue
I got the jack boot pneumonia and the boggie wuhan flu

~S~ w/apologies to Mr Rivers

 

[jc456]

and if it does not, then they can claim it did work....

naw, they don't get to make that claim for me. they never had a benchmarked number to say, see, without the lock down we would have had.... Nope, they never saw that number. The number increased after they moved to lock down. doesn't jive. Isn't logical. but asswipes will be asswipes and say anything.

 

[jc456]

i've seen a lot of people die up close & personal, it sucks...

I watched my first wife die. Had to bury her. Had both legs amputated, dialysis, and lost eyesight, Diabetes is evil. she was 30 years old. I don't feel shamed from the left in here because I've actually experienced loss. I wish that on no one. Them? they don't care. young blacks die daily in Chicago and the left do nothing. Flu deaths are over 24,000 and the left say nothing. I lost all respect with them. They have no way to ever earn it back.

 

[2aguy]

The numbers ......

The Wuhan Virus: Where We Are Now [Updated]

When the news consists just about entirely of the Wuhan virus, and seemingly every death merits a headline, it is easy to lose perspective. So it is time to update this chart, which I have posted a…

www.powerlineblog.com

When the news consists just about entirely of the Wuhan virus, and seemingly every death merits a headline, it is easy to lose perspective. So it is time to update this chart, which I have posted a couple of times before. It is very simple: it shows

1) the average number of deaths per year, worldwide, due to the seasonal flu virus, which is around 470,000;

2) the total number of Wuhan virus deaths as of yesterday, as reported by the World Health Organization, 40,598;

the number of flu deaths in the U.S. in the 2017-18 flu season, 61,000;

and the number of Wuhan deaths so far in the U.S., as reported yesterday by the Centers for Disease Control, 3,603. Click to enlarge:



The global number is undoubtedly low due to false reporting from China and (I assume) Iran, but even if you multiply the Chinese figure by 10 and the Iranian by 3, we are still only one-sixth of the way to a normal flu season, in terms of fatalities.

Given the hysteria with which we are inundated, I assume the Wuhan virus will, in the end, at least be equal to an average flu season, both globally and in the U.S. But at the moment, it is hard to see how we are going to get there.

 

[jc456]

The numbers ......

The Wuhan Virus: Where We Are Now [Updated]

When the news consists just about entirely of the Wuhan virus, and seemingly every death merits a headline, it is easy to lose perspective. So it is time to update this chart, which I have posted a…

www.powerlineblog.com

When the news consists just about entirely of the Wuhan virus, and seemingly every death merits a headline, it is easy to lose perspective. So it is time to update this chart, which I have posted a couple of times before. It is very simple: it shows

1) the average number of deaths per year, worldwide, due to the seasonal flu virus, which is around 470,000;

2) the total number of Wuhan virus deaths as of yesterday, as reported by the World Health Organization, 40,598;

the number of flu deaths in the U.S. in the 2017-18 flu season, 61,000;

and the number of Wuhan deaths so far in the U.S., as reported yesterday by the Centers for Disease Control, 3,603. Click to enlarge:



The global number is undoubtedly low due to false reporting from China and (I assume) Iran, but even if you multiply the Chinese figure by 10 and the Iranian by 3, we are still only one-sixth of the way to a normal flu season, in terms of fatalities.

Given the hysteria with which we are inundated, I assume the Wuhan virus will, in the end, at least be equal to an average flu season, both globally and in the U.S. But at the moment, it is hard to see how we are going to get there.

all I've been saying.

 

[jc456]

One virus and we turned into Venezuela in one month. I hope the left are all happy!!! This is the leftist footprint of their socialism.

 

[flacaltenn]

The president and his team told you that we'd lose 120,000 to 240,000 people to this virus if we do everything right.

Except that if listened to docs from CDC -- 120K to 240K is largely based on GUESSES as to whether OTHER major metros will bubble up.... Right now -- it's just NYC metro and New Orleans. And NOBODY KNOWS THIS... Those numbers are not written in stone...

Death RATE will go up when the great American Med system becomes LOCALLY overwhelmed. For the majority of the country OUTSIDE those metros -- that's not likely to happen..

So the CDC docs got up before and after Trump and laid all that out.. NOBODY should be taking those numbers LITERALLY or saying those numbers are "if we do EVERYTHING right"..

I KNOW it would nearly kill you to sit thru any of those 2 or 3 a day press conferences at the WH -- but they are the PUBLIC LIFELINE for information on the numbers and the govt response..

Dude. I'm listening to every second of every WH press conference. It doesn't kill me to be informed of to see where an attempt to misinformed me takes place.

I'm THRILLED that you do not have seizures or other side effects from that "sacrifice"..

AND impressed.. This is one of those times when it pays to listen to the lead team before you binge on the political analysis...

 

[flacaltenn]

We usually buy about $300 worth of triple-report mortars apiece and beer, think that will be affordable this year?

or next year.....?

1-2 more weeks and a Depression is guaranteed.

gawd yes....

If this jumps, then self isolation didn't work.

and if it does not, then they can claim it did work....

these pukes are rooting for people to die.

i've seen a lot of people die up close & personal, it sucks....

I KNOW it would nearly kill you to sit thru any of those 2 or 3 a day press conferences at the WH -- but they are the PUBLIC LIFELINE for information on the numbers and the govt response..

nothing better to do....& i've horded all the cheap whiskey i can....

Maybe folks will do more to RETAIN their Civil Liberties after a dose of "the Government is here to HELP you"...

We got the national guards and that ain’t all
We got the CDC testing us at the mall
Gman curfew's got a hold of me, too
I got the jack boot pneumonia and the boggie wuhan flu

Got all my flights canceled to China ‘til fall
Went for a dump but there’s no TP at all
Gman minions got me locked down too
I got the jack boot pneumonia and the boggie wuhan flu


I Wanna sneeze but I’m afraid I’ll show
Telling symptoms fema says got to go
Gman curfew's got a hold of me, too
I got the jack boot pneumonia and the boggie wuhan flu


Gotta quarantine for what I don’t know
My nose is runnin' but my fevers low
Gman curfew's got a hold of me, too
I got the jack boot pneumonia and the boggie wuhan flu


I gotta a potus sezs he’s got the plan
He was on TV , claims he is the man
Gman curfew's got me feelin’ blue
I got the jack boot pneumonia and the boggie wuhan flu

~S~ w/apologies to Mr Rivers

I've got this favorite old Buffalo Springfield song, For What its Worth.. Read yours above, I'll bet the 2 of us could make the Springfield about Cuomo, COVID, NYC... I'll beat ya to it !!! (Sanity break challenge from the serious stuff.. )