Office of the chief actuary report

Quantum Windbag

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The chief actuary finally got caught up with the reports on the OASI and DI, it turns out Perry is an optimist.

Social Security financial data

  • Except for the “double-taxation” (both quarterly estimated income tax and taxation of benefits) months of January and June, the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance program has not had a monthly positive primary (cash) balance since July 2009.
  • The 12-month OASI primary deficit peaked at $20.16 billion in the June 2010-May 2011 period, and isn’t expected to ever become a surplus again by the Social Security Trustees, the Congressional Budget Office, or me. My re-estimation of the 2009 Trustees’ intermediate-case scenario, the last one I have any confidence in, has that never dropping below $10.6 billion (in the February 2012-January 2013 period).
  • The last time the Disability Insurance program had a monthly primary surplus, and indeed, the last time it likely will ever have a monthly primary surplus, was April 2009. If it weren’t for the temporary ability to monetize the DI “Trust Fund”, in most months, less than 75% of the scheduled benefits would be able to be paid out as its annual primary deficit has crossed the $34 billion level on annual costs of just over $131 billion.
  • Speaking of the DI “Trust Fund”, its book value has dropped below $165 billion, and even with interest paid, its annual “burn rate” has crossed the $25 billion level. That makes it likely the person who serves the next Presidential term will have to deal with an exhausted DI “Trust Fund”.
21 of the last 25 months (or if you’re on disability, the last 28) « The Greenroom
 

uscitizen

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I am on disability.
I paid in over 170k in my lifetime.
I will never draw out nearly that much.
My income is 30K per year from my estate in perpetuity that I set up.
And i have a pocket full of gold eagles and my estate furnishes me an expense paid home to live in.
I got disability so I could qualify for medical insurance.
No one will insure a man with terminal cancer.
 
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