Oceans rising faster than UN forecast

[Chris]

June 18 (Bloomberg) -- Polar ice caps are melting faster and oceans are rising more than the United Nations projected just two years ago, 10 universities said in a report suggesting that climate change has been underestimated.

Global sea levels will climb a meter (39 inches) by 2100, 69 percent more than the most dire forecast made in 2007 by the UN’s climate panel, according to the study released today in Brussels. The forecast was based on new findings, including that Greenland’s ice sheet is losing 179 billion tons of ice a year.

“We have to act immediately and we have to act strongly,” Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, director of Germany’s Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, told reporters in the Belgian capital. “Time is clearly running out.”

In six months, negotiators from 192 nations will meet in Copenhagen to broker a new treaty to fight global warming by limiting the release of greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels and clearing forests.

“A lukewarm agreement” in the Danish capital “is not only inexcusable, it would be reckless,” Schellnhuber said.

Fossil-fuel combustion in the world’s power plants, vehicles and heaters alone released 31.5 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, 1.8 percent more than in 2007, according to calculations from BP Plc data.

‘Rapid and Drastic’

The scientists today portrayed a more ominous scenario than outlined in 2007 by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which likewise blamed humans for global warming. “Rapid and drastic” cuts in the output of heat-trapping gases are needed to avert “serious climate impacts,” the report said.

The report called for coordinated, “rapid and sustained” global efforts to contain rising temperatures. Danish Prime Minister Lars Loekke Rasmussen, also in Brussels, told reporters that nations have to reverse the rising trend in emissions of heat-trapping gases.

“We need targets,” Rasmussen said. “All of us are moving toward the same ambitious goals.”

Scientists from institutions including Yale University, the University of Oxford and the University of Cambridge compiled the 39-page report from research carried out since 2005, the cutoff date for consideration by the IPCC for its forecasts published in November 2007.

Oceans Rising Faster Than UN Forecast, Scientists Say (Update2) - Bloomberg.com

 

[Oddball]

Meh!!

Rising sea levels will merely force evil rich people to abandon their muckity-muck ocean front properties.

And who cares about rich people, anyways??

 

[code1211]

June 18 (Bloomberg) -- Polar ice caps are melting faster and oceans are rising more than the United Nations projected just two years ago, 10 universities said in a report suggesting that climate change has been underestimated.

Global sea levels will climb a meter (39 inches) by 2100, 69 percent more than the most dire forecast made in 2007 by the UN’s climate panel, according to the study released today in Brussels. The forecast was based on new findings, including that Greenland’s ice sheet is losing 179 billion tons of ice a year.

“We have to act immediately and we have to act strongly,” Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, director of Germany’s Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, told reporters in the Belgian capital. “Time is clearly running out.”

In six months, negotiators from 192 nations will meet in Copenhagen to broker a new treaty to fight global warming by limiting the release of greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels and clearing forests.

“A lukewarm agreement” in the Danish capital “is not only inexcusable, it would be reckless,” Schellnhuber said.

Fossil-fuel combustion in the world’s power plants, vehicles and heaters alone released 31.5 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, 1.8 percent more than in 2007, according to calculations from BP Plc data.

‘Rapid and Drastic’

The scientists today portrayed a more ominous scenario than outlined in 2007 by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which likewise blamed humans for global warming. “Rapid and drastic” cuts in the output of heat-trapping gases are needed to avert “serious climate impacts,” the report said.

The report called for coordinated, “rapid and sustained” global efforts to contain rising temperatures. Danish Prime Minister Lars Loekke Rasmussen, also in Brussels, told reporters that nations have to reverse the rising trend in emissions of heat-trapping gases.

“We need targets,” Rasmussen said. “All of us are moving toward the same ambitious goals.”

Scientists from institutions including Yale University, the University of Oxford and the University of Cambridge compiled the 39-page report from research carried out since 2005, the cutoff date for consideration by the IPCC for its forecasts published in November 2007.

Oceans Rising Faster Than UN Forecast, Scientists Say (Update2) - Bloomberg.com

Not trying so much to burst your baloon, but did you notice that there is not even one referance to the actual rate of the sea level rise? Not one.

Do you wonder why?

It is probably due to the fact that the rise is so small as to be non existant.

The rate of increase in sea level has increased ever so slightly from almost nothing to a little more than almost nothing. 3.3 millimeters of rise per year. For thos of you, like me, who have no clue what this means beyond "almost nothing", it means that by 2100, the total rise, if there is not a decrease, will be less than 1 foot.

This is a continuation of sea level rise which has slowed from a rate that caused sea to rise about 15 meters over 8000 years and has actually been falling for about the last 2000 years.

By rising, the sea level is restoring, not advancing, the shore lines of the recent past.

Sea level rise outpacing key predictions - environment - 01 February 2007 - New Scientist

Image:Holocene Sea Level.png - Global Warming Art

 

[Chris]

June 18 (Bloomberg) -- Polar ice caps are melting faster and oceans are rising more than the United Nations projected just two years ago, 10 universities said in a report suggesting that climate change has been underestimated.

Global sea levels will climb a meter (39 inches) by 2100, 69 percent more than the most dire forecast made in 2007 by the UN’s climate panel, according to the study released today in Brussels. The forecast was based on new findings, including that Greenland’s ice sheet is losing 179 billion tons of ice a year.

“We have to act immediately and we have to act strongly,” Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, director of Germany’s Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, told reporters in the Belgian capital. “Time is clearly running out.”

In six months, negotiators from 192 nations will meet in Copenhagen to broker a new treaty to fight global warming by limiting the release of greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels and clearing forests.

“A lukewarm agreement” in the Danish capital “is not only inexcusable, it would be reckless,” Schellnhuber said.

Fossil-fuel combustion in the world’s power plants, vehicles and heaters alone released 31.5 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, 1.8 percent more than in 2007, according to calculations from BP Plc data.

‘Rapid and Drastic’

The scientists today portrayed a more ominous scenario than outlined in 2007 by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which likewise blamed humans for global warming. “Rapid and drastic” cuts in the output of heat-trapping gases are needed to avert “serious climate impacts,” the report said.

The report called for coordinated, “rapid and sustained” global efforts to contain rising temperatures. Danish Prime Minister Lars Loekke Rasmussen, also in Brussels, told reporters that nations have to reverse the rising trend in emissions of heat-trapping gases.

“We need targets,” Rasmussen said. “All of us are moving toward the same ambitious goals.”

Scientists from institutions including Yale University, the University of Oxford and the University of Cambridge compiled the 39-page report from research carried out since 2005, the cutoff date for consideration by the IPCC for its forecasts published in November 2007.

Oceans Rising Faster Than UN Forecast, Scientists Say (Update2) - Bloomberg.com

Not trying so much to burst your baloon, but did you notice that there is not even one referance to the actual rate of the sea level rise? Not one.

Do you wonder why?

It is probably due to the fact that the rise is so small as to be non existant.

The rate of increase in sea level has increased ever so slightly from almost nothing to a little more than almost nothing. 3.3 millimeters of rise per year. For thos of you, like me, who have no clue what this means beyond "almost nothing", it means that by 2100, the total rise, if there is not a decrease, will be less than 1 foot.

This is a continuation of sea level rise which has slowed from a rate that caused sea to rise about 15 meters over 8000 years and has actually been falling for about the last 2000 years.

By rising, the sea level is restoring, not advancing, the shore lines of the recent past.

Sea level rise outpacing key predictions - environment - 01 February 2007 - New Scientist

Image:Holocene Sea Level.png - Global Warming Art

Not trying to burst your balloon, but apparently you didn't even read the article.....

Ocean levels have been rising by 3.1 millimeters a year since 2000, a rate that’s predicted to grow, according to the study. The projections of sea levels rising by a meter this century compare with the 18 to 59 centimeters (7 to 23 inches) forecast by the IPCC.

“There are indications that rates of sea-level rise are higher than projected, and impacts like Arctic melting are more rapid,” Martin Parry, who supervised part of the UN panel’s 2007 study, said in a telephone interview. He wasn’t involved in writing the new report.

Oceans are warming 50 percent faster than the IPCC predicted and Arctic sea ice is disappearing more rapidly in summer -- exposing darker ocean that absorbs more heat, the study said.

Oceans Rising Faster Than UN Forecast, Scientists Say (Update2) - Bloomberg.com

 

[RadiomanATL]

Well, looks like we have a conundrum here.

Code1211 says that sea levels have been rising approximately 3.3 millimeters per year, and in about 100 years that would equal a foot. Which is inconsequential

Chris says that sea levels have been rising 3.1 millimeters per year (less than code's assertion), and sometime within 100 years they will rise by about a meter. Which is 3.28 feet. More than 3 times the amount that Chris stated. And this could be harmful.

OK, so lets break down the math here.

3.3 millimeters x 100 years equals 330 millimeters. Which in the conversion equals 1.08 feet. OK, Code's math checks out. So lets check out Chris' math...

3.1 millimeters x 100 years equals 310 millimeters. Which in the conversion equals .310 meters or 1.02 feet. One third of the supposed meter that it would rise within the 100 years. We even used the maximum span of time of 100 years and it doesn't even come close.

But wait...Chris said that the rate was predicted to grow. Well surely that gives an "out". So lets check it out if we, say, increase the rate of the oceanic rise by 50%. Starting now. Thats a pretty hefty and immediate growth rate, and unlikely as hell, but lets check it out:

4.65 millimeters per year x 100 years equals 1.5 feet, or .465 meters. Not even half of the supposed "projections of sea levels rising by a meter this century". I was even generous. I should have only accounted for 91 years instead of 100 years.

 

[Sinatra]

Well, looks like we have a conundrum here.

Code1211 says that sea levels have been rising approximately 3.3 millimeters per year, and in about 100 years that would equal a foot. Which is inconsequential

Chris says that sea levels have been rising 3.1 millimeters per year (less than code's assertion), and sometime within 100 years they will rise by about a meter. Which is 3.28 feet. More than 3 times the amount that Chris stated. And this could be harmful.

OK, so lets break down the math here.

3.3 millimeters x 100 years equals 330 millimeters. Which in the conversion equals 1.08 feet. OK, Code's math checks out. So lets check out Chris' math...

3.1 millimeters x 100 years equals 310 millimeters. Which in the conversion equals .310 meters or 1.02 feet. One third of the supposed meter that it would rise within the 100 years. We even used the maximum span of time of 100 years and it doesn't even come close.

But wait...Chris said that the rate was predicted to grow. Well surely that gives an "out". So lets check it out if we, say, increase the rate of the oceanic rise by 50%. Starting now. Thats a pretty hefty and immediate growth rate, and unlikely as hell, but lets check it out:

4.65 millimeters per year x 100 years equals 1.5 feet, or .465 meters. Not even half of the supposed "projections of sea levels rising by a meter this century". I was even generous. I should have only accounted for 91 years instead of 100 years.

My God Chris is a dupe...


We have the summertime doom n gloom quick-hatch news releases timed for upcoming climate talks and quotes from the very people whose livelihoods depend upon further funding for this projected-maybe-could be-possibly...crisis.

And then Chris of course posts it in here post-haste, and it appears that while he can click a mouse, he cannot add.

Chris, you were completely...

 

[Chris]

I love these personal attacks.

This is what happens when conservatives have no answers.

 

[elvis]

I love these personal attacks.

This is what happens when conservatives have no answers.

No, we attack you because you're a douchebag. We have all the answers. You're just too busy worshipping Obama to hear them.

 

[Chris]

I love these personal attacks.

This is what happens when conservatives have no answers.

No, we attack you because you're a douchebag. We have all the answers. You're just too busy worshipping Obama to hear them.

You have been wrong about almost everything.

 

[elvis]

I love these personal attacks.

This is what happens when conservatives have no answers.

No, we attack you because you're a douchebag. We have all the answers. You're just too busy worshipping Obama to hear them.

You have been wrong about almost everything.

about you being a douchebag? No, the majority of us agree. You ARE an ignorant homosexual douchebag.

 

[Chris]

The annual melting of Arctic sea ice is trending toward another record-low.

While it's still too early to say whether the 2009 melt will exceed the record 2007 melt -- the annual low-point isn't reached until September -- the trend line for 2009 for the first time has dipped below 2007, according to the latest data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Another record would be startling, but not surprising. Just 30% of the sea ice in the Arctic at the height of the winter freeze was thicker multi-year ice, leaving 70% susceptible to rapid melting. The amount of ice in the Arctic as of February 2009 -- the height of the annual freeze -- was the lowest on record. Most arctic scientists now say they expect an ice-free Arctic in summer within the next three decades -- far ahead of the projections in the last comprehensive United Nations report on global warming.

The melting of Arctic sea ice is one of the clearest signals of global warming, and a leading indicator of what is to come. The melting is also an example -- one of many -- of a positive feedback loop that scientists expect will accelerate global warming: As sea ice melts, the darker water that is exposed absorbs more of the sun's energy, which leads to warmer waters and more melting ice.

Arctic Sea Ice Record Low - 2009 Arctic Sea Ice Melt Trend - thedailygreen.com

 

[elvis]

The annual melting of Arctic sea ice is trending toward another record-low.

While it's still too early to say whether the 2009 melt will exceed the record 2007 melt -- the annual low-point isn't reached until September -- the trend line for 2009 for the first time has dipped below 2007, according to the latest data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Another record would be startling, but not surprising. Just 30% of the sea ice in the Arctic at the height of the winter freeze was thicker multi-year ice, leaving 70% susceptible to rapid melting. The amount of ice in the Arctic as of February 2009 -- the height of the annual freeze -- was the lowest on record. Most arctic scientists now say they expect an ice-free Arctic in summer within the next three decades -- far ahead of the projections in the last comprehensive United Nations report on global warming.

The melting of Arctic sea ice is one of the clearest signals of global warming, and a leading indicator of what is to come. The melting is also an example -- one of many -- of a positive feedback loop that scientists expect will accelerate global warming: As sea ice melts, the darker water that is exposed absorbs more of the sun's energy, which leads to warmer waters and more melting ice.

Arctic Sea Ice Record Low - 2009 Arctic Sea Ice Melt Trend - thedailygreen.com

Thanks for the "update", Lewinsky.

 

[RetiredGySgt]

He still hasn't explained why there was ANY ice left by 1950.

 

[RadiomanATL]

I love these personal attacks.

This is what happens when conservatives have no answers.

Why Chris, I didn't personally attack you once. I just conclusively proved you wrong.

 

[editec]

I'm about 30' short of having ocean-front property.

 

[RadiomanATL]

I'm about 30' short of having ocean-front property.

Well, just hang around for about 2770 years and you'll get it!

 

[Sinatra]

He still hasn't explained why there was ANY ice left by 1950.

No he has not - and now he ducks explaining how he got the simple math wrong within the very post that initiated this thread.

Kinda feel sorry for the guy...

 

[Teo Smith]

In Europe, it was the Industrial Revolution that gave rise to modern environmental pollution as it is generally understood today. The emergence of great factories and consumption of immense quantities of coal and other fossil fuels gave rise to unprecedented air pollution and the large volume of industrial chemical discharges added to the growing load of untreated human waste.

 

[Old Rocks]

Like compound interest, it does not take huge numbers to translate into a significant sea level rise within a century. Worse yet, there are several factors that may cause the rate of increase to increase far more rapidly than any present estimate. One of these factors is the dynamics of the Antarctic Ice Shelves. Another is the clathrate emmissions that we are presently seeing in the Artic.

Even a 1/2 meter rise is significant, for that is the base level that the storm tides will ride on. And then there is the matter of freshwater aquifers.

 

[manu1959]

I love these personal attacks.

This is what happens when conservatives have no answers.

No, we attack you because you're a douchebag. We have all the answers. You're just too busy worshipping Obama to hear them.

You have been wrong about almost everything.

explain how 1 foot grows to three feet......prolly how 3 inches grows to 8.....