Obama Bump of 2.7% in Polls Since 3rd Debate

[Interpol]

In polls in the last 2 days, President Obama has decidedly ended Gov. Romney's two weeks of momentum, and has grabbed the ball back.

Talking Points Memo

CVOTER (+5 Obama) from 10/7-10/13 it was Romney 49-46

from 10/17-10/23 it's Obama 49-47

Gallup (LV) (+4 Obama) 10/14-20 Romney 52-45 10/17-23 Romney 50-47

Gallup (RV) (+4 O) 10/14-20 Romney 49-46 10/17-23 Obama 48-47

PPP (+4 O) 10/12-14 Romney 50-46 10/19-23 Romney 48 Obama 48

Rasmussen (+2 Romney) 10/18-20 Romney 49-47 10/21-23 Romney 50-46

RAND (+2 O) 10/20 Obama 48-46 10/23 Obama 49-45

Reuters/Ipsos (+2 O) 10/8-12 Romney 46-45 10/19-23 Obama 47-46

IBD/TIPP (+3 O) 10/12-17 tied at 46 10/18-23 Obama 47-44



That's a 2.75% shift in just 2 days of polling, while three quarters of those polls also include days leading up to the debate, which were favorable for Romney.

Gone is the 7-point lead from Gallup.

It won't be until well into the weekend that we have a clearer view of the effect of this bump for Obama after his third debate, but it is clear now that the 2nd debate slowed the Romney momentum marginally, while the 3rd debate appears to show the beginning of a momentum swing back towards the President.

My prediction? I think the national polls, which come out to a tie at the moment, all of which are within the margin of error, will pretty much stay that way now, with one poll after another showing a tie, or Obama up by 2, or Romney up by 2. From here on in, the winner will be the guy with the best ground game.

 

[LordBrownTrout]

Momentum continuing to shift to Romney as the tide shifts away from O.

 

[mikegriffith1]

What a relief, because I was afraid we might actually elect a guy who has balanced every budget he's ever managed, who brought his state's unemployment rate down to below the national average (to below 5%), who held state spending to nearly zero net growth, who increased his state's bond rating, who increased his state's reserve fund, etc., etc.

I was afraid we would not want to reelect a president who has piled up as much debt in 4 years as Bush did in 8 years, who has given us a trillion-plus deficit for each of his 3 budget years, who has given us more than 3 years of 8%-plus unemployment, who has given us the weakest 3 years of economic growth since the Great Depression, who has presided over a doubling of the price of a gallon of gas, etc., etc. Gosh, why would we not want to give him 4 more years?

 

[skookerasbil]

No worries here............not for months.

 

[hazlnut]

Momentum continuing to shift to Romney as the tide shifts away from O.

Reading is not your strong suit.

If this trend keeps up, Romney is going to lose in a landslide.

 

[iamwhatiseem]

You guys realize how many times the polls are wrong - in particular, the closer to the election the farther off they tend to be?

 

[AmyNation]

There will be no landslide wins.

 

[auditor0007]

What a relief, because I was afraid we might actually elect a guy who has balanced every budget he's ever managed, who brought his state's unemployment rate down to below the national average (to below 5%), who held state spending to nearly zero net growth, who increased his state's bond rating, who increased his state's reserve fund, etc., etc.

I was afraid we would not want to reelect a president who has piled up as much debt in 4 years as Bush did in 8 years, who has given us a trillion-plus deficit for each of his 3 budget years, who has given us more than 3 years of 8%-plus unemployment, who has given us the weakest 3 years of economic growth since the Great Depression, who has presided over a doubling of the price of a gallon of gas, etc., etc. Gosh, why would we not want to give him 4 more years?

Amazing that he could do all those things during the biggest boom years this country had seen in a very long time. Just friggin amazing. More amazing is the fact that he was able to balance the budget since no other governor ever had. Oh, that's right, all of Massachusetts' governors have had balanced budgets because the state had a balanced budget amendment. They have to have a balanced budget.

If you really want to know how much the people of Massachusetts love their ex-governor, you ought to figure out why it is that he trails Obama by twenty points in his own state.

 

[Old Rocks]

President Obama 281 Governor Romney 257

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map No Toss Ups

Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012

Share on facebookShare on google_plusone

More Sharing Services

58.6%
CHANCE

Last prediction was: $5.86 / share



Today's Change: +$0.35(+6.4%)

Contract Type: 0-100
Intrade - Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

President Obama 288 Governor Romney 250

 

[Zoom]

Congrats on your second term Mr. President.

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

In polls in the last 2 days, President Obama has decidedly ended Gov. Romney's two weeks of momentum, and has grabbed the ball back.

Talking Points Memo

CVOTER (+5 Obama) from 10/7-10/13 it was Romney 49-46

from 10/17-10/23 it's Obama 49-47

Gallup (LV) (+4 Obama) 10/14-20 Romney 52-45 10/17-23 Romney 50-47

Gallup (RV) (+4 O) 10/14-20 Romney 49-46 10/17-23 Obama 48-47

PPP (+4 O) 10/12-14 Romney 50-46 10/19-23 Romney 48 Obama 48

Rasmussen (+2 Romney) 10/18-20 Romney 49-47 10/21-23 Romney 50-46

RAND (+2 O) 10/20 Obama 48-46 10/23 Obama 49-45

Reuters/Ipsos (+2 O) 10/8-12 Romney 46-45 10/19-23 Obama 47-46

IBD/TIPP (+3 O) 10/12-17 tied at 46 10/18-23 Obama 47-44



That's a 2.75% shift in just 2 days of polling, while three quarters of those polls also include days leading up to the debate, which were favorable for Romney.

Gone is the 7-point lead from Gallup.

It won't be until well into the weekend that we have a clearer view of the effect of this bump for Obama after his third debate, but it is clear now that the 2nd debate slowed the Romney momentum marginally, while the 3rd debate appears to show the beginning of a momentum swing back towards the President.

My prediction? I think the national polls, which come out to a tie at the moment, all of which are within the margin of error, will pretty much stay that way now, with one poll after another showing a tie, or Obama up by 2, or Romney up by 2. From here on in, the winner will be the guy with the best ground game.

Actually it will be the guy who wins the EC, where the president has the clear advantage.

 

[Dutch]

What a relief, because I was afraid we might actually elect a guy who has balanced every budget he's ever managed, who brought his state's unemployment rate down to below the national average (to below 5%), who held state spending to nearly zero net growth, who increased his state's bond rating, who increased his state's reserve fund, etc., etc.

I was afraid we would not want to reelect a president who has piled up as much debt in 4 years as Bush did in 8 years, who has given us a trillion-plus deficit for each of his 3 budget years, who has given us more than 3 years of 8%-plus unemployment, who has given us the weakest 3 years of economic growth since the Great Depression, who has presided over a doubling of the price of a gallon of gas, etc., etc. Gosh, why would we not want to give him 4 more years?

Yea and those Massachusetts voters appreciate it so much that Obama is up by twenty.

 

[BluePhantom]

Actually it will be the guy who wins the EC, where the president has the clear advantage.

I don't know how you figure that.

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

Romney 206, Obama 201

Colorado is trending Romney, Florida is almost a lock for Romney, New Hampshire is trending Romney, Virginia is trending Romney...that's 55 EV for a total of 261. If he takes Wisconsin or Ohio it's game, set, match, and checkmate on top of it and while Obama is currently leading in both it aint by very much and the trends still favor Romney.

 

[Interpol]

You guys realize how many times the polls are wrong - in particular, the closer to the election the farther off they tend to be?

That's actually untrue.

The RCP average in their final crop of polls showed Obama up by 7.6% over McCain.

Obama won the election by 7.3%.

Nate Silver was right on, too.

They really do have this shit down to a science.

I'll be happy to report they're wrong when they actually get it wrong for a change. I can't really remember when that last was, on a national level.

 

[tjvh]

Momentum continuing to shift to Romney as the tide shifts away from O.

Reading is not your strong suit.

If this trend keeps up, Romney is going to lose in a landslide.

Because someone says they will vote for Obama in a poll, does that magically translate to someone actually voting for Obama in the election? I'll answer for you... No it does not. People lie on polls all the time.

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

Momentum continuing to shift to Romney as the tide shifts away from O.

Reading is not your strong suit.

If this trend keeps up, Romney is going to lose in a landslide.

Because someone says they will vote for Obama in a poll, does that magically translate to someone actually voting for Obama in the election? I'll answer for you... No it does not. People lie on polls all the time.

especially true if they are fans of the drug addict Rush Limbaugh

 

[tjvh]

Reading is not your strong suit.

If this trend keeps up, Romney is going to lose in a landslide.

Because someone says they will vote for Obama in a poll, does that magically translate to someone actually voting for Obama in the election? I'll answer for you... No it does not. People lie on polls all the time.

especially true if they are fans of the drug addict Rush Limbaugh

I have no idea what you are trying to say... Are you intoxicated?

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

rush limbaugh told his listeners to lie to pollsters

 

[Interpol]

Actually it will be the guy who wins the EC, where the president has the clear advantage.

I don't know how you figure that.

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

Romney 206, Obama 201

Colorado is trending Romney, Florida is almost a lock for Romney, New Hampshire is trending Romney, Virginia is trending Romney...that's 55 EV for a total of 261. If he takes Wisconsin or Ohio it's game, set, match, and checkmate on top of it and while Obama is currently leading in both it aint by very much and the trends still favor Romney.

No, things were trending Romney from Oct.4 until Oct 22.

Over that 19-day period, Romney kept inching higher and higher.

But in the last 2 days, we now see that Romney peaked on Oct. 22 nationally.

Today begins the 3rd day after the 3rd debate, and we'll see if Obama's bump continues or if it flatlines or if it recedes today.

The trends are suggesting that the momentum will move a little more towards Obama today.

We'll see if I'm right.

 

[tjvh]

rush limbaugh told his listeners to lie to pollsters

I wouldn't know... But I've been doing it for years.