North Korea denuclearization could take a decade, experts say

peacefan

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https://edition.cnn.com/2018/05/29/asia/north-korea-nuclear-timeline-intl/index.html

North Korea denuclearization could take a decade, experts say

By Joshua Berlinger, CNN
Updated 0658 GMT (1458 HKT) May 29, 2018
{VIDEO NOT INCLUDED for forum software technical reasons}

Source: CNN


Questions surround outcome of Trump-Kim summit 01:23
(CNN)Any diplomatic agreement in which North Korea agreed to give up its nuclear weapons could take as long as 10 years to implement, according to a new analysis from former US officials.

The assessment, released Monday by experts at Stanford University, comes as the White House is trying to verify how committed North Korea is to denuclearization and how it could be achieved, ahead of a potential summit between the two leaders.

Siegfried Hecker, a respected nuclear scientist who has previously traveled to North Korea to inspect its nuclear site, co-authored the roadmap with Robert Carlin, a Korea analyst who spent years at the CIA and State Department, and Elliot Serbin, Hecker's research assistant.
The trio identified 22 specific programs or activities -- such as the country's nuclear weapons stockpile, its missile arsenal or its nuclear reprocessing facilities -- that US negotiators need to address with North Korea. Halting or suspending many of these will likely take less than a year, the authors estimate, but eliminating or setting limits on them will take six to 10 years.
Last week, US President Donald Trump abruptly canceled his planned Singapore summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, in part due to concerns on whether Pyongyang was willing to agree to what's known as CVID -- complete, verifiable and irreversible dismantlement of the country's nuclear program.

180309115433-01-trump-kim-jong-un-split-large-169.jpg
Sunday and held talks with their counterparts.

Talks could potentially resume Wednesday at the demilitarized zone that divides the two Koreas, a person familiar with North Korea-US relations told CNN.
"The goal here is to create an environment where North Korea would not desire nuclear weapons development by removing the threat perception (posed by the United States)," said Chun Yung-woo, a former South Korean national security adviser.
180426160428-north-korea-kim-jong-un-video-large-169.jpg
at an event sponsored by The Wall Street Journal in Japan.

Analysts and weapons experts have been quick to point out that an agreement on denuclearization would take a significant amount of time, due to the complexity of the negotiations and the lack of trust between the two sides.
But the authors of the study say time is also needed to assuage North Korea's security concerns. Hecker, who previously served as the director of the Los Alamos National Laboratory, told The New York Times he believes it could take as long as 15 years, given the uncertainties in the process.

"Such assurance cannot be achieved simply by an American promise or an agreement on paper, it will require a substantial period of coexistence and interdependence," the study concluded.
CNN's Yoonjung Seo and contributed reporting



sounds about right.. this ways the North-Koreans will have the assurances of a next US administration towards what *they* have stated they want out of the negotiations : less (intense) military drills between South-Korea and the US, and non-intimidating numbers of troops on US bases in some US weapon's range of North-Korea), and total sanctions relief of course.

and let's face it : aircraft carriers make for great bases of operations, and there's nothing the North-Koreans can do about a carrier group, which can be brought in when needed, and brought out of range of North-Korea when the diplomatic situation allows it again.

i recommend Trump get the North-Koreans to sign on for a 20 year denuclearization path, 10 will seem a bit too quick for them.
the real question is : when are they willing to give up their already produced nukes in exchange for this slow (and to them very comfy) degradation of their nuclear arsenal?
it would be wise to grant the North-Koreans the ability to restart their nuclear weapons program in short order for at least the first 3 to 10 years of this peace-plan. it would show commitment by the US, which is important.

that's also why i'm so pissed off about Trump's current plans against Iran.
that does a lot to discredit the perceived honor levels of Trump's administraton.
and that is going to turn out to be important, not just for dealing with rogue states and muslim extermists, but also for US relations with their traditional allies. piss to many people off, break too many deals, and you're not going to get anything done at all anymore.

do so with 2 or 3 presidents in a row, and your entire country loses all credibility world-wide. in every field.
 

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