CDZ North Korea and Its Nuclear Arsenal

[320 Years of History]

The U.S. now says it's possible that North Korea (NK) have tested an H-bomb. They are thought to be working on a long range delivery system as well.

As I consider this, I have the same concern that I've had re: NK for years. I doubt the clown leading that nation intends to use a nuclear weapon himself. Far more troublesome in mind is that given the extreme poverty his country faces, Kim Jong-un (KJ) will sell them to the highest bidder(s), perhaps just any buyer. I have no doubt in my mind that ISIS would be happy to buy a few.

I don't generally like to get into conversations that have a doomsday and "if this and if that" tone, but the motivations involved -- NK --> money + KJ's sheer craziness; ISIS --> hatred -- that nut's selling a or several nuclear weapons to ISIS strikes me a both plausible and possible. A few million dollars goes a very long way in NK, and ISIS would love to have a nuclear weapon, and most especially one or a few it can lob at the U.S. (I suspect for them, it really doesn't even matter where it explodes over the U.S., so long as it does, although any Western local would do, even if not the in the U.S. proper.)

 

[Bruce_T_Laney]

The U.S. now says it's possible that North Korea (NK) have tested an H-bomb. They are thought to be working on a long range delivery system as well.

As I consider this, I have the same concern that I've had re: NK for years. I doubt the clown leading that nation intends to use a nuclear weapon himself. Far more troublesome in mind is that given the extreme poverty his country faces, Kim Jong-un (KJ) will sell them to the highest bidder(s), perhaps just any buyer. I have no doubt in my mind that ISIS would be happy to buy a few.

I don't generally like to get into conversations that have a doomsday and "if this and if that" tone, but the motivations involved -- NK --> money + KJ's sheer craziness; ISIS --> hatred -- that nut's selling a or several nuclear weapons to ISIS strikes me a both plausible and possible. A few million dollars goes a very long way in NK, and ISIS would love to have a nuclear weapon, and most especially one or a few it can lob at the U.S. (I suspect for them, it really doesn't even matter where it explodes over the U.S., so long as it does, although any Western local would do, even if not the in the U.S. proper.)

I do not believe ISIL could deliver a Nuclear device to the U.S. or anywhere in North America, but would most likely use one against Israel or Saudi Arabia or even Iran.

They would have to obtain a device in North America for them to be able to use it here, and even though Mexico had that issue a few years back about stolen Nuclear waste the chances of a nuclear attack on our soil by ISIL is almost impossible.

North Korea would have to deliver them a rocket that they could use to fire it at this country and even then a transport of that rocket would be impossible.

Now could North Korea fire off a rocket for ISIL?

I believe they would if the right amount of money was given, but once it happen China along with North Korea and maybe even Russia will need to clinch their ass cheeks because hell will be unleashed on this Earth and when it done there will be nothing left of North Korea and most likely China!

 

[320 Years of History]

The U.S. now says it's possible that North Korea (NK) have tested an H-bomb. They are thought to be working on a long range delivery system as well.

As I consider this, I have the same concern that I've had re: NK for years. I doubt the clown leading that nation intends to use a nuclear weapon himself. Far more troublesome in mind is that given the extreme poverty his country faces, Kim Jong-un (KJ) will sell them to the highest bidder(s), perhaps just any buyer. I have no doubt in my mind that ISIS would be happy to buy a few.

I don't generally like to get into conversations that have a doomsday and "if this and if that" tone, but the motivations involved -- NK --> money + KJ's sheer craziness; ISIS --> hatred -- that nut's selling a or several nuclear weapons to ISIS strikes me a both plausible and possible. A few million dollars goes a very long way in NK, and ISIS would love to have a nuclear weapon, and most especially one or a few it can lob at the U.S. (I suspect for them, it really doesn't even matter where it explodes over the U.S., so long as it does, although any Western local would do, even if not the in the U.S. proper.)

I do not believe ISIL could deliver a Nuclear device to the U.S. or anywhere in North America, but would most likely use one against Israel or Saudi Arabia or even Iran.

They would have to obtain a device in North America for them to be able to use it here, and even though Mexico had that issue a few years back about stolen Nuclear waste the chances of a nuclear attack on our soil by ISIL is almost impossible.

North Korea would have to deliver them a rocket that they could use to fire it at this country and even then a transport of that rocket would be impossible.

Now could North Korea fire off a rocket for ISIL?

I believe they would if the right amount of money was given, but once it happen China along with North Korea and maybe even Russia will need to clinch their ass cheeks because hell will be unleashed on this Earth and when it done there will be nothing left of North Korea and most likely China!

We know NK already has mid-range rockets. What's to stop NK from selling not only the warhead, but also a boat or airplane that can launch a mid-range, short range, or long range missile? Heck, with a plane, KJ could allow ISIS' own pilots to take off from an airstrip in NK. From KJ's standpoint, it's just more money in his treasury; from ISIS' standpoint, it's money they have.

In many ways, the issue with nuclear proliferation is no different than the domestic issue we have with guns. The darn things just aren't that hard to obtain or build for a nation state. Heck, it doesn't even need to be an H-bomb. For ISIS' purposes, for anyone's really, a "basic" atom bomb will do just fine. There's no meaningful difference between destroying a target once over or ten times over.

 

[Syriusly]

The U.S. now says it's possible that North Korea (NK) have tested an H-bomb. They are thought to be working on a long range delivery system as well.

As I consider this, I have the same concern that I've had re: NK for years. I doubt the clown leading that nation intends to use a nuclear weapon himself. Far more troublesome in mind is that given the extreme poverty his country faces, Kim Jong-un (KJ) will sell them to the highest bidder(s), perhaps just any buyer. I have no doubt in my mind that ISIS would be happy to buy a few.

I don't generally like to get into conversations that have a doomsday and "if this and if that" tone, but the motivations involved -- NK --> money + KJ's sheer craziness; ISIS --> hatred -- that nut's selling a or several nuclear weapons to ISIS strikes me a both plausible and possible. A few million dollars goes a very long way in NK, and ISIS would love to have a nuclear weapon, and most especially one or a few it can lob at the U.S. (I suspect for them, it really doesn't even matter where it explodes over the U.S., so long as it does, although any Western local would do, even if not the in the U.S. proper.)

I do not believe ISIL could deliver a Nuclear device to the U.S. or anywhere in North America, but would most likely use one against Israel or Saudi Arabia or even Iran.

They would have to obtain a device in North America for them to be able to use it here, and even though Mexico had that issue a few years back about stolen Nuclear waste the chances of a nuclear attack on our soil by ISIL is almost impossible.

North Korea would have to deliver them a rocket that they could use to fire it at this country and even then a transport of that rocket would be impossible.

Now could North Korea fire off a rocket for ISIL?

I believe they would if the right amount of money was given, but once it happen China along with North Korea and maybe even Russia will need to clinch their ass cheeks because hell will be unleashed on this Earth and when it done there will be nothing left of North Korea and most likely China!

We know NK already has mid-range rockets. What's to stop NK from selling not only the warhead, but also a boat or airplane that can launch a mid-range, short range, or long range missile? Heck, with a plane, KJ could allow ISIS' own pilots to take off from an airstrip in NK. From KJ's standpoint, it's just more money in his treasury; from ISIS' standpoint, it's money they have.

In many ways, the issue with nuclear proliferation is no different than the domestic issue we have with guns. The darn things just aren't that hard to obtain or build for a nation state. Heck, it doesn't even need to be an H-bomb. For ISIS' purposes, for anyone's really, a "basic" atom bomb will do just fine. There's no meaningful difference between destroying a target once over or ten times over.

Well think this through- plane takes off from North Korea- flies towards the United States- fires missle at the United States.

What action does the United States take?
a) None- assumes plane was flown by ISIS so won't take any action
b) Assume plane was North Korean and turns North Korea into radioactive dust?

The 'darn things' are hard to obtain and build- which is why very few nation states own them. And fewer of those nations states are capable of launching a missile capable of carrying a warhead.

We watch ships that leave North Korea- pretty easy to do- since so few ships call in North Korea- so once again- a ship which leaves North Korea and fires a missile- will once again be identified as a North Korean atomic attack- again a cloud of radioactive dust where NK used to be.

Yes- NK is a loose cannon- but if you assume that they are suicidal enough to sell to ISIS then you might as well assume that they are suicidal enough to just launch their missiles at the United States.

From what I understand now, we do have the capability of shooting down now what NK could launch at us.

 

[320 Years of History]

The U.S. now says it's possible that North Korea (NK) have tested an H-bomb. They are thought to be working on a long range delivery system as well.

As I consider this, I have the same concern that I've had re: NK for years. I doubt the clown leading that nation intends to use a nuclear weapon himself. Far more troublesome in mind is that given the extreme poverty his country faces, Kim Jong-un (KJ) will sell them to the highest bidder(s), perhaps just any buyer. I have no doubt in my mind that ISIS would be happy to buy a few.

I don't generally like to get into conversations that have a doomsday and "if this and if that" tone, but the motivations involved -- NK --> money + KJ's sheer craziness; ISIS --> hatred -- that nut's selling a or several nuclear weapons to ISIS strikes me a both plausible and possible. A few million dollars goes a very long way in NK, and ISIS would love to have a nuclear weapon, and most especially one or a few it can lob at the U.S. (I suspect for them, it really doesn't even matter where it explodes over the U.S., so long as it does, although any Western local would do, even if not the in the U.S. proper.)

I do not believe ISIL could deliver a Nuclear device to the U.S. or anywhere in North America, but would most likely use one against Israel or Saudi Arabia or even Iran.

They would have to obtain a device in North America for them to be able to use it here, and even though Mexico had that issue a few years back about stolen Nuclear waste the chances of a nuclear attack on our soil by ISIL is almost impossible.

North Korea would have to deliver them a rocket that they could use to fire it at this country and even then a transport of that rocket would be impossible.

Now could North Korea fire off a rocket for ISIL?

I believe they would if the right amount of money was given, but once it happen China along with North Korea and maybe even Russia will need to clinch their ass cheeks because hell will be unleashed on this Earth and when it done there will be nothing left of North Korea and most likely China!

We know NK already has mid-range rockets. What's to stop NK from selling not only the warhead, but also a boat or airplane that can launch a mid-range, short range, or long range missile? Heck, with a plane, KJ could allow ISIS' own pilots to take off from an airstrip in NK. From KJ's standpoint, it's just more money in his treasury; from ISIS' standpoint, it's money they have.

In many ways, the issue with nuclear proliferation is no different than the domestic issue we have with guns. The darn things just aren't that hard to obtain or build for a nation state. Heck, it doesn't even need to be an H-bomb. For ISIS' purposes, for anyone's really, a "basic" atom bomb will do just fine. There's no meaningful difference between destroying a target once over or ten times over.

Well think this through- plane takes off from North Korea- flies towards the United States- fires missle at the United States.

What action does the United States take?
a) None- assumes plane was flown by ISIS so won't take any action
b) Assume plane was North Korean and turns North Korea into radioactive dust?

The 'darn things' are hard to obtain and build- which is why very few nation states own them. And fewer of those nations states are capable of launching a missile capable of carrying a warhead.

We watch ships that leave North Korea- pretty easy to do- since so few ships call in North Korea- so once again- a ship which leaves North Korea and fires a missile- will once again be identified as a North Korean atomic attack- again a cloud of radioactive dust where NK used to be.

Yes- NK is a loose cannon- but if you assume that they are suicidal enough to sell to ISIS then you might as well assume that they are suicidal enough to just launch their missiles at the United States.

From what I understand now, we do have the capability of shooting down now what NK could launch at us.

Overall, your post's theme is one of preemption and reaction. The bombings of the past decade show that preemption is not a 100% successful approach, and clearly we are dissatisfied with its overall success as shown by our reaction to each and every terrorist bombing that occurs. The specific reaction you identified -- turning NK to dust -- would likely prevent the sale of an additional warhead/missile, and that's certainly a good thing; however, it's not going to do much about the one's sold before doing so. And we know that preemptive measures must succeed all the time, but terrorist ones only need to succeed one time.

NK is a "piece of cake" for the U.S. to clobber. KJ and the rest of the world know that. ISIS and groups like it, on the other hand, are not nation states, and don't exist in just one place. The difficulty in defeating ISIS is very much like that of trying to combat mosquitoes or roaches; they are a nuisance wherever they exist, but they don't have a key place that can be attacked and expected to eradicate them as a whole. Their ability to annoy us is also much like that of annoying insects and spiders.

 

[Syriusly]

The U.S. now says it's possible that North Korea (NK) have tested an H-bomb. They are thought to be working on a long range delivery system as well.

As I consider this, I have the same concern that I've had re: NK for years. I doubt the clown leading that nation intends to use a nuclear weapon himself. Far more troublesome in mind is that given the extreme poverty his country faces, Kim Jong-un (KJ) will sell them to the highest bidder(s), perhaps just any buyer. I have no doubt in my mind that ISIS would be happy to buy a few.

I don't generally like to get into conversations that have a doomsday and "if this and if that" tone, but the motivations involved -- NK --> money + KJ's sheer craziness; ISIS --> hatred -- that nut's selling a or several nuclear weapons to ISIS strikes me a both plausible and possible. A few million dollars goes a very long way in NK, and ISIS would love to have a nuclear weapon, and most especially one or a few it can lob at the U.S. (I suspect for them, it really doesn't even matter where it explodes over the U.S., so long as it does, although any Western local would do, even if not the in the U.S. proper.)

I do not believe ISIL could deliver a Nuclear device to the U.S. or anywhere in North America, but would most likely use one against Israel or Saudi Arabia or even Iran.

They would have to obtain a device in North America for them to be able to use it here, and even though Mexico had that issue a few years back about stolen Nuclear waste the chances of a nuclear attack on our soil by ISIL is almost impossible.

North Korea would have to deliver them a rocket that they could use to fire it at this country and even then a transport of that rocket would be impossible.

Now could North Korea fire off a rocket for ISIL?

I believe they would if the right amount of money was given, but once it happen China along with North Korea and maybe even Russia will need to clinch their ass cheeks because hell will be unleashed on this Earth and when it done there will be nothing left of North Korea and most likely China!

We know NK already has mid-range rockets. What's to stop NK from selling not only the warhead, but also a boat or airplane that can launch a mid-range, short range, or long range missile? Heck, with a plane, KJ could allow ISIS' own pilots to take off from an airstrip in NK. From KJ's standpoint, it's just more money in his treasury; from ISIS' standpoint, it's money they have.

In many ways, the issue with nuclear proliferation is no different than the domestic issue we have with guns. The darn things just aren't that hard to obtain or build for a nation state. Heck, it doesn't even need to be an H-bomb. For ISIS' purposes, for anyone's really, a "basic" atom bomb will do just fine. There's no meaningful difference between destroying a target once over or ten times over.

Well think this through- plane takes off from North Korea- flies towards the United States- fires missle at the United States.

What action does the United States take?
a) None- assumes plane was flown by ISIS so won't take any action
b) Assume plane was North Korean and turns North Korea into radioactive dust?

The 'darn things' are hard to obtain and build- which is why very few nation states own them. And fewer of those nations states are capable of launching a missile capable of carrying a warhead.

We watch ships that leave North Korea- pretty easy to do- since so few ships call in North Korea- so once again- a ship which leaves North Korea and fires a missile- will once again be identified as a North Korean atomic attack- again a cloud of radioactive dust where NK used to be.

Yes- NK is a loose cannon- but if you assume that they are suicidal enough to sell to ISIS then you might as well assume that they are suicidal enough to just launch their missiles at the United States.

From what I understand now, we do have the capability of shooting down now what NK could launch at us.

Overall, your post's theme is one of preemption and reaction. The bombings of the past decade show that preemption is not a 100% successful approach, and clearly we are dissatisfied with its overall success as shown by our reaction to each and every terrorist bombing that occurs. The specific reaction you identified -- turning NK to dust -- would likely prevent the sale of an additional warhead/missile, and that's certainly a good thing; however, it's not going to do much about the one's sold before doing so. And we know that preemptive measures must succeed all the time, but terrorist ones only need to succeed one time.

NK is a "piece of cake" for the U.S. to clobber. KJ and the rest of the world know that. ISIS and groups like it, on the other hand, are not nation states, and don't exist in just one place. The difficulty in defeating ISIS is very much like that of trying to combat mosquitoes or roaches; they are a nuisance wherever they exist, but they don't have a key place that can be attacked and expected to eradicate them as a whole. Their ability to annoy us is also much like that of annoying insects and spiders.

Yes- it is very difficult to stop car bombings and suicide bombers.

But deterance works with nation states launching attacks by missiles or planes.

Would NK sell a nuke to a terrorist group? Possibly. Still has to get delivered to a target- and that will not be by planes or missiles. And while not perfect- we have been working to prevent just that thing from occurring since 9/11.

ISIS can be defeated- but they need to be defeated by their primary victims- the nations of the Middle East.

 

[Ellison]

It seems to me that we are far from needing to worry about immediate threat. The concern is still how pressure can be placed on North Korea to take the wishes of other nations more seriously.

I thought this article was a decent take on where we are in the sanction problem:

The White House moved quickly to debunk North Korea's exaggerated claim that a Jan. 5 "artificial earthquake" at the site where Pyongyang had conducted three previous nuclear tests was a breakthrough detonation of a hydrogen bomb. The size of the blast was similar to that of North Korea's January 2013 test and had a yield thousands of times lower than the yield expected of a hydrogen blast. But in downplaying North Korea's claim so as not to feed Kim Jong-un's cravings for international attention, the Obama administration risks underplaying the growing danger posed by North Korea's unchecked efforts to develop nuclear and missile capabilities needed to threaten a nuclear strike on the United States.

Instead, the Obama administration is conducting what then-Ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice in February of 2013 called the "usual drill" in responding to a North Korean nuclear test: Condemnation of North Korea, expressions of assurance to allies including nuclear-capable B-52 overflights of the peninsula, diplomacy to strengthen U.N. sanctions on North Korea, and temporarily increased pressure on China to squeeze North Korea. Meanwhile, the U.S. Congress has expressed outrage and is seeking to impose additional sanctions on North Korea, but such sanctions will bite only if China cooperates.​

 

[Bruce_T_Laney]

The U.S. now says it's possible that North Korea (NK) have tested an H-bomb. They are thought to be working on a long range delivery system as well.

As I consider this, I have the same concern that I've had re: NK for years. I doubt the clown leading that nation intends to use a nuclear weapon himself. Far more troublesome in mind is that given the extreme poverty his country faces, Kim Jong-un (KJ) will sell them to the highest bidder(s), perhaps just any buyer. I have no doubt in my mind that ISIS would be happy to buy a few.

I don't generally like to get into conversations that have a doomsday and "if this and if that" tone, but the motivations involved -- NK --> money + KJ's sheer craziness; ISIS --> hatred -- that nut's selling a or several nuclear weapons to ISIS strikes me a both plausible and possible. A few million dollars goes a very long way in NK, and ISIS would love to have a nuclear weapon, and most especially one or a few it can lob at the U.S. (I suspect for them, it really doesn't even matter where it explodes over the U.S., so long as it does, although any Western local would do, even if not the in the U.S. proper.)

I do not believe ISIL could deliver a Nuclear device to the U.S. or anywhere in North America, but would most likely use one against Israel or Saudi Arabia or even Iran.

They would have to obtain a device in North America for them to be able to use it here, and even though Mexico had that issue a few years back about stolen Nuclear waste the chances of a nuclear attack on our soil by ISIL is almost impossible.

North Korea would have to deliver them a rocket that they could use to fire it at this country and even then a transport of that rocket would be impossible.

Now could North Korea fire off a rocket for ISIL?

I believe they would if the right amount of money was given, but once it happen China along with North Korea and maybe even Russia will need to clinch their ass cheeks because hell will be unleashed on this Earth and when it done there will be nothing left of North Korea and most likely China!

We know NK already has mid-range rockets. What's to stop NK from selling not only the warhead, but also a boat or airplane that can launch a mid-range, short range, or long range missile? Heck, with a plane, KJ could allow ISIS' own pilots to take off from an airstrip in NK. From KJ's standpoint, it's just more money in his treasury; from ISIS' standpoint, it's money they have.

In many ways, the issue with nuclear proliferation is no different than the domestic issue we have with guns. The darn things just aren't that hard to obtain or build for a nation state. Heck, it doesn't even need to be an H-bomb. For ISIS' purposes, for anyone's really, a "basic" atom bomb will do just fine. There's no meaningful difference between destroying a target once over or ten times over.

The issue with your scenario is Japan, South Korea, and United States of America is watching North Korea all the time, and the chances of them launching a plane with a nuclear device aboard is impossible because we will know about it before it take flight.

So no chance of it happening.

The U.S. now says it's possible that North Korea (NK) have tested an H-bomb. They are thought to be working on a long range delivery system as well.

As I consider this, I have the same concern that I've had re: NK for years. I doubt the clown leading that nation intends to use a nuclear weapon himself. Far more troublesome in mind is that given the extreme poverty his country faces, Kim Jong-un (KJ) will sell them to the highest bidder(s), perhaps just any buyer. I have no doubt in my mind that ISIS would be happy to buy a few.

I don't generally like to get into conversations that have a doomsday and "if this and if that" tone, but the motivations involved -- NK --> money + KJ's sheer craziness; ISIS --> hatred -- that nut's selling a or several nuclear weapons to ISIS strikes me a both plausible and possible. A few million dollars goes a very long way in NK, and ISIS would love to have a nuclear weapon, and most especially one or a few it can lob at the U.S. (I suspect for them, it really doesn't even matter where it explodes over the U.S., so long as it does, although any Western local would do, even if not the in the U.S. proper.)

I do not believe ISIL could deliver a Nuclear device to the U.S. or anywhere in North America, but would most likely use one against Israel or Saudi Arabia or even Iran.

They would have to obtain a device in North America for them to be able to use it here, and even though Mexico had that issue a few years back about stolen Nuclear waste the chances of a nuclear attack on our soil by ISIL is almost impossible.

North Korea would have to deliver them a rocket that they could use to fire it at this country and even then a transport of that rocket would be impossible.

Now could North Korea fire off a rocket for ISIL?

I believe they would if the right amount of money was given, but once it happen China along with North Korea and maybe even Russia will need to clinch their ass cheeks because hell will be unleashed on this Earth and when it done there will be nothing left of North Korea and most likely China!

We know NK already has mid-range rockets. What's to stop NK from selling not only the warhead, but also a boat or airplane that can launch a mid-range, short range, or long range missile? Heck, with a plane, KJ could allow ISIS' own pilots to take off from an airstrip in NK. From KJ's standpoint, it's just more money in his treasury; from ISIS' standpoint, it's money they have.

In many ways, the issue with nuclear proliferation is no different than the domestic issue we have with guns. The darn things just aren't that hard to obtain or build for a nation state. Heck, it doesn't even need to be an H-bomb. For ISIS' purposes, for anyone's really, a "basic" atom bomb will do just fine. There's no meaningful difference between destroying a target once over or ten times over.

Well think this through- plane takes off from North Korea- flies towards the United States- fires missle at the United States.

What action does the United States take?
a) None- assumes plane was flown by ISIS so won't take any action
b) Assume plane was North Korean and turns North Korea into radioactive dust?

The 'darn things' are hard to obtain and build- which is why very few nation states own them. And fewer of those nations states are capable of launching a missile capable of carrying a warhead.

We watch ships that leave North Korea- pretty easy to do- since so few ships call in North Korea- so once again- a ship which leaves North Korea and fires a missile- will once again be identified as a North Korean atomic attack- again a cloud of radioactive dust where NK used to be.

Yes- NK is a loose cannon- but if you assume that they are suicidal enough to sell to ISIS then you might as well assume that they are suicidal enough to just launch their missiles at the United States.

From what I understand now, we do have the capability of shooting down now what NK could launch at us.

Overall, your post's theme is one of preemption and reaction. The bombings of the past decade show that preemption is not a 100% successful approach, and clearly we are dissatisfied with its overall success as shown by our reaction to each and every terrorist bombing that occurs. The specific reaction you identified -- turning NK to dust -- would likely prevent the sale of an additional warhead/missile, and that's certainly a good thing; however, it's not going to do much about the one's sold before doing so. And we know that preemptive measures must succeed all the time, but terrorist ones only need to succeed one time.

NK is a "piece of cake" for the U.S. to clobber. KJ and the rest of the world know that. ISIS and groups like it, on the other hand, are not nation states, and don't exist in just one place. The difficulty in defeating ISIS is very much like that of trying to combat mosquitoes or roaches; they are a nuisance wherever they exist, but they don't have a key place that can be attacked and expected to eradicate them as a whole. Their ability to annoy us is also much like that of annoying insects and spiders.

The better possibility is delivering a dirty bomb than a actual nuclear warhead that could wipe a nation out.

Moving a actual nuclear warhead without the Asian nations not knowing is almost impossible.

I would worry more about dirty bombs where it will kill a decent amount of people, but would also enrage the society into a panic mode causing a massive backlash or the possibility of a biological weapon...

 

[oldsoul]

The U.S. now says it's possible that North Korea (NK) have tested an H-bomb. They are thought to be working on a long range delivery system as well.

As I consider this, I have the same concern that I've had re: NK for years. I doubt the clown leading that nation intends to use a nuclear weapon himself. Far more troublesome in mind is that given the extreme poverty his country faces, Kim Jong-un (KJ) will sell them to the highest bidder(s), perhaps just any buyer. I have no doubt in my mind that ISIS would be happy to buy a few.

I don't generally like to get into conversations that have a doomsday and "if this and if that" tone, but the motivations involved -- NK --> money + KJ's sheer craziness; ISIS --> hatred -- that nut's selling a or several nuclear weapons to ISIS strikes me a both plausible and possible. A few million dollars goes a very long way in NK, and ISIS would love to have a nuclear weapon, and most especially one or a few it can lob at the U.S. (I suspect for them, it really doesn't even matter where it explodes over the U.S., so long as it does, although any Western local would do, even if not the in the U.S. proper.)

I do not believe ISIL could deliver a Nuclear device to the U.S. or anywhere in North America, but would most likely use one against Israel or Saudi Arabia or even Iran.

They would have to obtain a device in North America for them to be able to use it here, and even though Mexico had that issue a few years back about stolen Nuclear waste the chances of a nuclear attack on our soil by ISIL is almost impossible.

North Korea would have to deliver them a rocket that they could use to fire it at this country and even then a transport of that rocket would be impossible.

Now could North Korea fire off a rocket for ISIL?

I believe they would if the right amount of money was given, but once it happen China along with North Korea and maybe even Russia will need to clinch their ass cheeks because hell will be unleashed on this Earth and when it done there will be nothing left of North Korea and most likely China!

Consider this senario:
NK sells a small nuke to ISIS, for arguement's sake we'll assume that it could be small enough to fit in a "small" pleasure craft. Said craft leaves NK with nuke, travels to Alaska, via various small islands for fuel/diversionary action. Craft then travels down coast to Mexico as tourists. In a remote area of Mexico, nuke is off-loaded onto a small aircraft(a Cesna (sp) would work well), aircraft flies at low altitude through remote areas into U.S., then manuvers toward a large metro area, such as San Diego, gains altitude and detonates nuke.
Think it's outside of the capabilities of ISIS? Think again.

 

[320 Years of History]

The issue with your scenario is Japan, South Korea, and United States of America is watching North Korea all the time, and the chances of them launching a plane with a nuclear device aboard is impossible because we will know about it before it take flight.

The better possibility is delivering a dirty bomb than a actual nuclear warhead that could wipe a nation out.

Moving a actual nuclear warhead without the Asian nations not knowing is almost impossible.

I would worry more about dirty bombs where it will kill a decent amount of people, but would also enrage the society into a panic mode causing a massive backlash or the possibility of a biological weapon...

Oh, I see now....that supposedly makes sense because secretly moving a nuclear warhead is so much more difficult to do than actually building one, yet the first we knew of KJ's having done so was his exploding it underground.

Red:
Based on what? NK and KJ's most secret intentions are among the small number of nations and organizations for which the U.S.' intelligence capability is limited, limited by and large to satellite surveillance, and we see how useful that was for knowing before he exploded his nuke that he was near doing so. (When I say the U.S., that includes info we might get from our allies who also keep an eye on KJ/NK as best they can.)

Contrast that lack of capability with what was shown with regard to Iran and its nuclear program, which we openly discussed (at least in terms of its high level status) acted to do something about before they got it completed. Heck, we had intelligence assets who infected Iran's tech that control the fabrication fissile material so that it would fail. (The Stuxnet Attack On Iran's Nuclear Plant Was 'Far More Dangerous' Than Previously Thought and An Unprecedented Look at Stuxnet, the World’s First Digital Weapon)

I suspect what is clouding your thinking about what NK and one or more ill-meaning potential buyers of their tech can accomplish is a perception that they must accomplish it (say transport a warhead and/or its delivery mechanism) in much the same way we or other "first world" nations would. For example, the U.S. would not disassemble a rocket to transport it. It would not because there's no good reason for doing so. For NK or ISIS, there is a good reason to do so, and if that's what they need to do to maintain secrecy, it's what they'll do.

That's just one hypothetical example, but hopefully it illustrates to you that the paradigm under which the U.S. and other powerful nations operate need not be the same one less accomplished nations and groups do, even though not doing so might entail their assuming more types of risk, such as temporal, safety, etc. You have to remember, particularly for groups like ISIS, that it's operatives are willing to undertake a project knowing they won't survive it. Survivability, in contrast, is a critical feature of most everything we and our allies value in determining what constitutes success. All the 9/11 hijackers died, but Al Qaeda deemed those crashes as complete successes, most likely more successful than they'd even hoped for. (Maybe they truly expected the WTC buildings to collapse, but I don't think so.)

 

[Syriusly]

The U.S. now says it's possible that North Korea (NK) have tested an H-bomb. They are thought to be working on a long range delivery system as well.

As I consider this, I have the same concern that I've had re: NK for years. I doubt the clown leading that nation intends to use a nuclear weapon himself. Far more troublesome in mind is that given the extreme poverty his country faces, Kim Jong-un (KJ) will sell them to the highest bidder(s), perhaps just any buyer. I have no doubt in my mind that ISIS would be happy to buy a few.

I don't generally like to get into conversations that have a doomsday and "if this and if that" tone, but the motivations involved -- NK --> money + KJ's sheer craziness; ISIS --> hatred -- that nut's selling a or several nuclear weapons to ISIS strikes me a both plausible and possible. A few million dollars goes a very long way in NK, and ISIS would love to have a nuclear weapon, and most especially one or a few it can lob at the U.S. (I suspect for them, it really doesn't even matter where it explodes over the U.S., so long as it does, although any Western local would do, even if not the in the U.S. proper.)

I do not believe ISIL could deliver a Nuclear device to the U.S. or anywhere in North America, but would most likely use one against Israel or Saudi Arabia or even Iran.

They would have to obtain a device in North America for them to be able to use it here, and even though Mexico had that issue a few years back about stolen Nuclear waste the chances of a nuclear attack on our soil by ISIL is almost impossible.

North Korea would have to deliver them a rocket that they could use to fire it at this country and even then a transport of that rocket would be impossible.

Now could North Korea fire off a rocket for ISIL?

I believe they would if the right amount of money was given, but once it happen China along with North Korea and maybe even Russia will need to clinch their ass cheeks because hell will be unleashed on this Earth and when it done there will be nothing left of North Korea and most likely China!

Consider this senario:
NK sells a small nuke to ISIS, for arguement's sake we'll assume that it could be small enough to fit in a "small" pleasure craft. Said craft leaves NK with nuke, travels to Alaska, via various small islands for fuel/diversionary action. Craft then travels down coast to Mexico as tourists. In a remote area of Mexico, nuke is off-loaded onto a small aircraft(a Cesna (sp) would work well), aircraft flies at low altitude through remote areas into U.S., then manuvers toward a large metro area, such as San Diego, gains altitude and detonates nuke.
Think it's outside of the capabilities of ISIS? Think again.

And of course- there are so many 'small pleasure' craft leaving North Korea that we would never notice it.

And of course U.S. Customs and the Coast Guard- and Canadian Customs and their Coast Guard- and Mexican Customs and their Coast Guard- would not notice- and would be certain not to carry their geiger counters on board.

Anything is possible- if you really, really want to worry about it. Russia could launch a nuclear attack against us- North Korea could- Pakistan could sell a nuke to ISIS(frankly a far more likely scenario).

What could be done to prevent every single possibility?

I certainly don't know.

 

[FA_Q2]

The U.S. now says it's possible that North Korea (NK) have tested an H-bomb. They are thought to be working on a long range delivery system as well.

As I consider this, I have the same concern that I've had re: NK for years. I doubt the clown leading that nation intends to use a nuclear weapon himself. Far more troublesome in mind is that given the extreme poverty his country faces, Kim Jong-un (KJ) will sell them to the highest bidder(s), perhaps just any buyer. I have no doubt in my mind that ISIS would be happy to buy a few.

I don't generally like to get into conversations that have a doomsday and "if this and if that" tone, but the motivations involved -- NK --> money + KJ's sheer craziness; ISIS --> hatred -- that nut's selling a or several nuclear weapons to ISIS strikes me a both plausible and possible. A few million dollars goes a very long way in NK, and ISIS would love to have a nuclear weapon, and most especially one or a few it can lob at the U.S. (I suspect for them, it really doesn't even matter where it explodes over the U.S., so long as it does, although any Western local would do, even if not the in the U.S. proper.)

I do not believe ISIL could deliver a Nuclear device to the U.S. or anywhere in North America, but would most likely use one against Israel or Saudi Arabia or even Iran.

They would have to obtain a device in North America for them to be able to use it here, and even though Mexico had that issue a few years back about stolen Nuclear waste the chances of a nuclear attack on our soil by ISIL is almost impossible.

North Korea would have to deliver them a rocket that they could use to fire it at this country and even then a transport of that rocket would be impossible.

Now could North Korea fire off a rocket for ISIL?

I believe they would if the right amount of money was given, but once it happen China along with North Korea and maybe even Russia will need to clinch their ass cheeks because hell will be unleashed on this Earth and when it done there will be nothing left of North Korea and most likely China!

We know NK already has mid-range rockets. What's to stop NK from selling not only the warhead, but also a boat or airplane that can launch a mid-range, short range, or long range missile? Heck, with a plane, KJ could allow ISIS' own pilots to take off from an airstrip in NK. From KJ's standpoint, it's just more money in his treasury; from ISIS' standpoint, it's money they have.

In many ways, the issue with nuclear proliferation is no different than the domestic issue we have with guns. The darn things just aren't that hard to obtain or build for a nation state. Heck, it doesn't even need to be an H-bomb. For ISIS' purposes, for anyone's really, a "basic" atom bomb will do just fine. There's no meaningful difference between destroying a target once over or ten times over.

The issue with your scenario is Japan, South Korea, and United States of America is watching North Korea all the time, and the chances of them launching a plane with a nuclear device aboard is impossible because we will know about it before it take flight.

So no chance of it happening.

The U.S. now says it's possible that North Korea (NK) have tested an H-bomb. They are thought to be working on a long range delivery system as well.

As I consider this, I have the same concern that I've had re: NK for years. I doubt the clown leading that nation intends to use a nuclear weapon himself. Far more troublesome in mind is that given the extreme poverty his country faces, Kim Jong-un (KJ) will sell them to the highest bidder(s), perhaps just any buyer. I have no doubt in my mind that ISIS would be happy to buy a few.

I don't generally like to get into conversations that have a doomsday and "if this and if that" tone, but the motivations involved -- NK --> money + KJ's sheer craziness; ISIS --> hatred -- that nut's selling a or several nuclear weapons to ISIS strikes me a both plausible and possible. A few million dollars goes a very long way in NK, and ISIS would love to have a nuclear weapon, and most especially one or a few it can lob at the U.S. (I suspect for them, it really doesn't even matter where it explodes over the U.S., so long as it does, although any Western local would do, even if not the in the U.S. proper.)

I do not believe ISIL could deliver a Nuclear device to the U.S. or anywhere in North America, but would most likely use one against Israel or Saudi Arabia or even Iran.

They would have to obtain a device in North America for them to be able to use it here, and even though Mexico had that issue a few years back about stolen Nuclear waste the chances of a nuclear attack on our soil by ISIL is almost impossible.

North Korea would have to deliver them a rocket that they could use to fire it at this country and even then a transport of that rocket would be impossible.

Now could North Korea fire off a rocket for ISIL?

I believe they would if the right amount of money was given, but once it happen China along with North Korea and maybe even Russia will need to clinch their ass cheeks because hell will be unleashed on this Earth and when it done there will be nothing left of North Korea and most likely China!

We know NK already has mid-range rockets. What's to stop NK from selling not only the warhead, but also a boat or airplane that can launch a mid-range, short range, or long range missile? Heck, with a plane, KJ could allow ISIS' own pilots to take off from an airstrip in NK. From KJ's standpoint, it's just more money in his treasury; from ISIS' standpoint, it's money they have.

In many ways, the issue with nuclear proliferation is no different than the domestic issue we have with guns. The darn things just aren't that hard to obtain or build for a nation state. Heck, it doesn't even need to be an H-bomb. For ISIS' purposes, for anyone's really, a "basic" atom bomb will do just fine. There's no meaningful difference between destroying a target once over or ten times over.

Well think this through- plane takes off from North Korea- flies towards the United States- fires missle at the United States.

What action does the United States take?
a) None- assumes plane was flown by ISIS so won't take any action
b) Assume plane was North Korean and turns North Korea into radioactive dust?

The 'darn things' are hard to obtain and build- which is why very few nation states own them. And fewer of those nations states are capable of launching a missile capable of carrying a warhead.

We watch ships that leave North Korea- pretty easy to do- since so few ships call in North Korea- so once again- a ship which leaves North Korea and fires a missile- will once again be identified as a North Korean atomic attack- again a cloud of radioactive dust where NK used to be.

Yes- NK is a loose cannon- but if you assume that they are suicidal enough to sell to ISIS then you might as well assume that they are suicidal enough to just launch their missiles at the United States.

From what I understand now, we do have the capability of shooting down now what NK could launch at us.

Overall, your post's theme is one of preemption and reaction. The bombings of the past decade show that preemption is not a 100% successful approach, and clearly we are dissatisfied with its overall success as shown by our reaction to each and every terrorist bombing that occurs. The specific reaction you identified -- turning NK to dust -- would likely prevent the sale of an additional warhead/missile, and that's certainly a good thing; however, it's not going to do much about the one's sold before doing so. And we know that preemptive measures must succeed all the time, but terrorist ones only need to succeed one time.

NK is a "piece of cake" for the U.S. to clobber. KJ and the rest of the world know that. ISIS and groups like it, on the other hand, are not nation states, and don't exist in just one place. The difficulty in defeating ISIS is very much like that of trying to combat mosquitoes or roaches; they are a nuisance wherever they exist, but they don't have a key place that can be attacked and expected to eradicate them as a whole. Their ability to annoy us is also much like that of annoying insects and spiders.

The better possibility is delivering a dirty bomb than a actual nuclear warhead that could wipe a nation out.

Moving a actual nuclear warhead without the Asian nations not knowing is almost impossible.

I would worry more about dirty bombs where it will kill a decent amount of people, but would also enrage the society into a panic mode causing a massive backlash or the possibility of a biological weapon...

You are assuming a large weapon that requires a delivery system which is not the real threat. Smaller warheads are more difficult to produce but they are quite possible:
http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/this-is-what-it-looks-like-when-the-worlds-smallest-nuk-1684923814

That warhead, developed decades ago, can fit in a large duffle bag. ISIS is not going to look for a warhead with a large delivery system or some other type of missile - those are difficult to deploy, use and come with a rather large amount of risk. They are MUCH more inclined to utilize a portable device.

320 Years of History
I think that the real question here would be why? What purpose would it serve for Korea to sell such a device to a group of people as unpredictable as ISIS? What do they gain?

There just is not enough money to justify such an action particularly considering the enormous investment required to attain the weapon in the first place. Nuclear devices are first and foremost a deterrence device - something that marks you as one of the big boys. The chief reason I see nations wanting one is that other nations will no longer screw with a nuclear nation. What do you think the odds of Iraq going the way it did had they possessed an active nuclear arsenal? I say virtually zero. That is how nations like N. Korea justify the expense and drain of their nuclear programs in my opinion. Selling them just does not have any real gain.

 

[320 Years of History]

The U.S. now says it's possible that North Korea (NK) have tested an H-bomb. They are thought to be working on a long range delivery system as well.

As I consider this, I have the same concern that I've had re: NK for years. I doubt the clown leading that nation intends to use a nuclear weapon himself. Far more troublesome in mind is that given the extreme poverty his country faces, Kim Jong-un (KJ) will sell them to the highest bidder(s), perhaps just any buyer. I have no doubt in my mind that ISIS would be happy to buy a few.

I don't generally like to get into conversations that have a doomsday and "if this and if that" tone, but the motivations involved -- NK --> money + KJ's sheer craziness; ISIS --> hatred -- that nut's selling a or several nuclear weapons to ISIS strikes me a both plausible and possible. A few million dollars goes a very long way in NK, and ISIS would love to have a nuclear weapon, and most especially one or a few it can lob at the U.S. (I suspect for them, it really doesn't even matter where it explodes over the U.S., so long as it does, although any Western local would do, even if not the in the U.S. proper.)

I do not believe ISIL could deliver a Nuclear device to the U.S. or anywhere in North America, but would most likely use one against Israel or Saudi Arabia or even Iran.

They would have to obtain a device in North America for them to be able to use it here, and even though Mexico had that issue a few years back about stolen Nuclear waste the chances of a nuclear attack on our soil by ISIL is almost impossible.

North Korea would have to deliver them a rocket that they could use to fire it at this country and even then a transport of that rocket would be impossible.

Now could North Korea fire off a rocket for ISIL?

I believe they would if the right amount of money was given, but once it happen China along with North Korea and maybe even Russia will need to clinch their ass cheeks because hell will be unleashed on this Earth and when it done there will be nothing left of North Korea and most likely China!

Consider this senario:
NK sells a small nuke to ISIS, for arguement's sake we'll assume that it could be small enough to fit in a "small" pleasure craft. Said craft leaves NK with nuke, travels to Alaska, via various small islands for fuel/diversionary action. Craft then travels down coast to Mexico as tourists. In a remote area of Mexico, nuke is off-loaded onto a small aircraft(a Cesna (sp) would work well), aircraft flies at low altitude through remote areas into U.S., then manuvers toward a large metro area, such as San Diego, gains altitude and detonates nuke.
Think it's outside of the capabilities of ISIS? Think again.

And of course- there are so many 'small pleasure' craft leaving North Korea that we would never notice it.

And of course U.S. Customs and the Coast Guard- and Canadian Customs and their Coast Guard- and Mexican Customs and their Coast Guard- would not notice- and would be certain not to carry their geiger counters on board.

Anything is possible- if you really, really want to worry about it. Russia could launch a nuclear attack against us- North Korea could- Pakistan could sell a nuke to ISIS(frankly a far more likely scenario).

What could be done to prevent every single possibility?

I certainly don't know.

Red:
At the end of the day, there probably is no way to eliminate all potential outcomes; however, there are two basic approaches to achieving the desired outcome of preventing folks from doing one harm:

• Being so powerful that they fear doing one harm. This approach is the bully's way and, yes, it works, but only until one's potential opponents decide "f*ck it, we don't care if they destroy us; living this way is equally unacceptable to us."
• Not pissing off folks to the extent that they want to make you be a target. This is the collaborative approach and there isn't a definable limit to its effectiveness, but it does mean that neither one nor one's opponents will always get all that s/he wants.

The second approach has one advantage that the former cannot ever surpass: it more effectively de-incentivizes one's opponents from banding together, which sooner or later will happen under the first approach.

 

[320 Years of History]

320 Years of History
I think that the real question here would be why? What purpose would it serve for Korea to sell such a device to a group of people as unpredictable as ISIS? What do they gain?

There just is not enough money to justify such an action particularly considering the enormous investment required to attain the weapon in the first place. Nuclear devices are first and foremost a deterrence device - something that marks you as one of the big boys. The chief reason I see nations wanting one is that other nations will no longer screw with a nuclear nation. What do you think the odds of Iraq going the way it did had they possessed an active nuclear arsenal? I say virtually zero. That is how nations like N. Korea justify the expense and drain of their nuclear programs in my opinion. Selling them just does not have any real gain.[/QUOTE]

Hypothetical example:

Cost to develop 10 nuclear warheads and the related deployment vehicles: $1B
Revenue gained from the sale of four devices and deployment vehicles: $60M
Net cost: $940M

I call the example above hypothetical because NK's GDP is but ~$15B. It may be that their costs, particularly the labor component of them, aren't anything near what it'd cost the U.S. to do the same thing.

Exchange rate: 1 USD = 900 NKW....While $60M can go a long way in the U.S. if it's yours or my pocket, it goes a very long way in NK, a country having a GDP of ~$12B. The "distance" $60M will go in his country is more than adequate motivation. That it would conceivably be used against the U.S., which is the main thing standing between him and Seoul, is all the more so.

Sidebar:

KJ may spend 1/15th of his GDP on a nuclear program, but doing so is quite likely among the major things keeping his people largely impoverished. I mean really, the country wouldn't even have a need for nuclear weapons, or even a standing army but for KJ and his father's raving lunacy. All the clown has to do is recognize that the Korean War has ended and call it a day....There'd be no point to his even having developed a weapons program, much less a nuclear one; the nation could undertake free trade with the rest of the world and so on.​

End of sidebar.

Blue:
Yes, they are that, but nuclear weapons or not, NK is not seen as a "big boy" by anyone other than KJ and his lackeys.

Yes, nuclearly weapons serve as a deterrent for nation states. But a nation need only have one or four, along with the means to deliver them, to achieve that end. After that, a small nation that largely has no practical need, that is, real cause to use one, in the first place may was well sell them to "allies of convenience" to generate capital for the country. That's all the more so for a nation like NK that has a dictator, thus making his money the nation's money. Again, our democratic paradigm just can be applied to the way things will work for a nation like NK; NK and KJ's modus operandi is more akin to that of a feudal lord than of a constitutional monarch or popularly elected democratic leader.

 

[oldsoul]

The U.S. now says it's possible that North Korea (NK) have tested an H-bomb. They are thought to be working on a long range delivery system as well.

As I consider this, I have the same concern that I've had re: NK for years. I doubt the clown leading that nation intends to use a nuclear weapon himself. Far more troublesome in mind is that given the extreme poverty his country faces, Kim Jong-un (KJ) will sell them to the highest bidder(s), perhaps just any buyer. I have no doubt in my mind that ISIS would be happy to buy a few.

I don't generally like to get into conversations that have a doomsday and "if this and if that" tone, but the motivations involved -- NK --> money + KJ's sheer craziness; ISIS --> hatred -- that nut's selling a or several nuclear weapons to ISIS strikes me a both plausible and possible. A few million dollars goes a very long way in NK, and ISIS would love to have a nuclear weapon, and most especially one or a few it can lob at the U.S. (I suspect for them, it really doesn't even matter where it explodes over the U.S., so long as it does, although any Western local would do, even if not the in the U.S. proper.)

I do not believe ISIL could deliver a Nuclear device to the U.S. or anywhere in North America, but would most likely use one against Israel or Saudi Arabia or even Iran.

They would have to obtain a device in North America for them to be able to use it here, and even though Mexico had that issue a few years back about stolen Nuclear waste the chances of a nuclear attack on our soil by ISIL is almost impossible.

North Korea would have to deliver them a rocket that they could use to fire it at this country and even then a transport of that rocket would be impossible.

Now could North Korea fire off a rocket for ISIL?

I believe they would if the right amount of money was given, but once it happen China along with North Korea and maybe even Russia will need to clinch their ass cheeks because hell will be unleashed on this Earth and when it done there will be nothing left of North Korea and most likely China!

Consider this senario:
NK sells a small nuke to ISIS, for arguement's sake we'll assume that it could be small enough to fit in a "small" pleasure craft. Said craft leaves NK with nuke, travels to Alaska, via various small islands for fuel/diversionary action. Craft then travels down coast to Mexico as tourists. In a remote area of Mexico, nuke is off-loaded onto a small aircraft(a Cesna (sp) would work well), aircraft flies at low altitude through remote areas into U.S., then manuvers toward a large metro area, such as San Diego, gains altitude and detonates nuke.
Think it's outside of the capabilities of ISIS? Think again.

And of course- there are so many 'small pleasure' craft leaving North Korea that we would never notice it.

And of course U.S. Customs and the Coast Guard- and Canadian Customs and their Coast Guard- and Mexican Customs and their Coast Guard- would not notice- and would be certain not to carry their geiger counters on board.

Anything is possible- if you really, really want to worry about it. Russia could launch a nuclear attack against us- North Korea could- Pakistan could sell a nuke to ISIS(frankly a far more likely scenario).

What could be done to prevent every single possibility?

I certainly don't know.

What makes you soooo sure anyone would notice? We didn't notice when a bunch of Saudis went to commercial pilot school and had no interest in learning take-offs, and landings.... Just sayin'....

 

[Syriusly]

The U.S. now says it's possible that North Korea (NK) have tested an H-bomb. They are thought to be working on a long range delivery system as well.

As I consider this, I have the same concern that I've had re: NK for years. I doubt the clown leading that nation intends to use a nuclear weapon himself. Far more troublesome in mind is that given the extreme poverty his country faces, Kim Jong-un (KJ) will sell them to the highest bidder(s), perhaps just any buyer. I have no doubt in my mind that ISIS would be happy to buy a few.

I don't generally like to get into conversations that have a doomsday and "if this and if that" tone, but the motivations involved -- NK --> money + KJ's sheer craziness; ISIS --> hatred -- that nut's selling a or several nuclear weapons to ISIS strikes me a both plausible and possible. A few million dollars goes a very long way in NK, and ISIS would love to have a nuclear weapon, and most especially one or a few it can lob at the U.S. (I suspect for them, it really doesn't even matter where it explodes over the U.S., so long as it does, although any Western local would do, even if not the in the U.S. proper.)

I do not believe ISIL could deliver a Nuclear device to the U.S. or anywhere in North America, but would most likely use one against Israel or Saudi Arabia or even Iran.

They would have to obtain a device in North America for them to be able to use it here, and even though Mexico had that issue a few years back about stolen Nuclear waste the chances of a nuclear attack on our soil by ISIL is almost impossible.

North Korea would have to deliver them a rocket that they could use to fire it at this country and even then a transport of that rocket would be impossible.

Now could North Korea fire off a rocket for ISIL?

I believe they would if the right amount of money was given, but once it happen China along with North Korea and maybe even Russia will need to clinch their ass cheeks because hell will be unleashed on this Earth and when it done there will be nothing left of North Korea and most likely China!

Consider this senario:
NK sells a small nuke to ISIS, for arguement's sake we'll assume that it could be small enough to fit in a "small" pleasure craft. Said craft leaves NK with nuke, travels to Alaska, via various small islands for fuel/diversionary action. Craft then travels down coast to Mexico as tourists. In a remote area of Mexico, nuke is off-loaded onto a small aircraft(a Cesna (sp) would work well), aircraft flies at low altitude through remote areas into U.S., then manuvers toward a large metro area, such as San Diego, gains altitude and detonates nuke.
Think it's outside of the capabilities of ISIS? Think again.

And of course- there are so many 'small pleasure' craft leaving North Korea that we would never notice it.

And of course U.S. Customs and the Coast Guard- and Canadian Customs and their Coast Guard- and Mexican Customs and their Coast Guard- would not notice- and would be certain not to carry their geiger counters on board.

Anything is possible- if you really, really want to worry about it. Russia could launch a nuclear attack against us- North Korea could- Pakistan could sell a nuke to ISIS(frankly a far more likely scenario).

What could be done to prevent every single possibility?

I certainly don't know.

What makes you soooo sure anyone would notice? We didn't notice when a bunch of Saudis went to commercial pilot school and had no interest in learning take-offs, and landings.... Just sayin'....

Of course we could miss something- but unlike within the United States, we do watch North Korea closely.

And yes- Customs and Coast Guard in Alaska, Canada and in Mexico do stop pleasure craft and at least in Canada and the U.S. do carry radiation detection equipment.

 

[Syriusly]

The U.S. now says it's possible that North Korea (NK) have tested an H-bomb. They are thought to be working on a long range delivery system as well.

As I consider this, I have the same concern that I've had re: NK for years. I doubt the clown leading that nation intends to use a nuclear weapon himself. Far more troublesome in mind is that given the extreme poverty his country faces, Kim Jong-un (KJ) will sell them to the highest bidder(s), perhaps just any buyer. I have no doubt in my mind that ISIS would be happy to buy a few.

I don't generally like to get into conversations that have a doomsday and "if this and if that" tone, but the motivations involved -- NK --> money + KJ's sheer craziness; ISIS --> hatred -- that nut's selling a or several nuclear weapons to ISIS strikes me a both plausible and possible. A few million dollars goes a very long way in NK, and ISIS would love to have a nuclear weapon, and most especially one or a few it can lob at the U.S. (I suspect for them, it really doesn't even matter where it explodes over the U.S., so long as it does, although any Western local would do, even if not the in the U.S. proper.)

I do not believe ISIL could deliver a Nuclear device to the U.S. or anywhere in North America, but would most likely use one against Israel or Saudi Arabia or even Iran.

They would have to obtain a device in North America for them to be able to use it here, and even though Mexico had that issue a few years back about stolen Nuclear waste the chances of a nuclear attack on our soil by ISIL is almost impossible.

North Korea would have to deliver them a rocket that they could use to fire it at this country and even then a transport of that rocket would be impossible.

Now could North Korea fire off a rocket for ISIL?

I believe they would if the right amount of money was given, but once it happen China along with North Korea and maybe even Russia will need to clinch their ass cheeks because hell will be unleashed on this Earth and when it done there will be nothing left of North Korea and most likely China!

Consider this senario:
NK sells a small nuke to ISIS, for arguement's sake we'll assume that it could be small enough to fit in a "small" pleasure craft. Said craft leaves NK with nuke, travels to Alaska, via various small islands for fuel/diversionary action. Craft then travels down coast to Mexico as tourists. In a remote area of Mexico, nuke is off-loaded onto a small aircraft(a Cesna (sp) would work well), aircraft flies at low altitude through remote areas into U.S., then manuvers toward a large metro area, such as San Diego, gains altitude and detonates nuke.
Think it's outside of the capabilities of ISIS? Think again.

And of course- there are so many 'small pleasure' craft leaving North Korea that we would never notice it.

And of course U.S. Customs and the Coast Guard- and Canadian Customs and their Coast Guard- and Mexican Customs and their Coast Guard- would not notice- and would be certain not to carry their geiger counters on board.

Anything is possible- if you really, really want to worry about it. Russia could launch a nuclear attack against us- North Korea could- Pakistan could sell a nuke to ISIS(frankly a far more likely scenario).

What could be done to prevent every single possibility?

I certainly don't know.

Red:
At the end of the day, there probably is no way to eliminate all potential outcomes; however, there are two basic approaches to achieving the desired outcome of preventing folks from doing one harm:

• Being so powerful that they fear doing one harm. This approach is the bully's way and, yes, it works, but only until one's potential opponents decide "f*ck it, we don't care if they destroy us; living this way is equally unacceptable to us."
• Not pissing off folks to the extent that they want to make you be a target. This is the collaborative approach and there isn't a definable limit to its effectiveness, but it does mean that neither one nor one's opponents will always get all that s/he wants.

The second approach has one advantage that the former cannot ever surpass: it more effectively de-incentivizes one's opponents from banding together, which sooner or later will happen under the first approach.

Exactly how would you suggest a collaborative approach with ISIS- whose goal is encouraging the final holy battle between true Islam and the rest of the world?

Frankly deterence works better than any other approach we have had so far. Your second approach assumes that if we just 'collaborate' with people, they won't ever want to harm us. Certainly I don't think we should go out of our way to antagonize anyone- but ISIS and NK are two of the most repressive and frankly evil entities on earth. NK is motivated by the concept of keeping its leader alive and in power- and that motivation I believe will motivate him from wanting to be blamed for selling a nuke to ISIS.

A bigger risk in my opinion is a corrupt official in Pakistan selling a nuke to a terrorist group.

 

[oldsoul]

The U.S. now says it's possible that North Korea (NK) have tested an H-bomb. They are thought to be working on a long range delivery system as well.

As I consider this, I have the same concern that I've had re: NK for years. I doubt the clown leading that nation intends to use a nuclear weapon himself. Far more troublesome in mind is that given the extreme poverty his country faces, Kim Jong-un (KJ) will sell them to the highest bidder(s), perhaps just any buyer. I have no doubt in my mind that ISIS would be happy to buy a few.

I don't generally like to get into conversations that have a doomsday and "if this and if that" tone, but the motivations involved -- NK --> money + KJ's sheer craziness; ISIS --> hatred -- that nut's selling a or several nuclear weapons to ISIS strikes me a both plausible and possible. A few million dollars goes a very long way in NK, and ISIS would love to have a nuclear weapon, and most especially one or a few it can lob at the U.S. (I suspect for them, it really doesn't even matter where it explodes over the U.S., so long as it does, although any Western local would do, even if not the in the U.S. proper.)

I do not believe ISIL could deliver a Nuclear device to the U.S. or anywhere in North America, but would most likely use one against Israel or Saudi Arabia or even Iran.

They would have to obtain a device in North America for them to be able to use it here, and even though Mexico had that issue a few years back about stolen Nuclear waste the chances of a nuclear attack on our soil by ISIL is almost impossible.

North Korea would have to deliver them a rocket that they could use to fire it at this country and even then a transport of that rocket would be impossible.

Now could North Korea fire off a rocket for ISIL?

I believe they would if the right amount of money was given, but once it happen China along with North Korea and maybe even Russia will need to clinch their ass cheeks because hell will be unleashed on this Earth and when it done there will be nothing left of North Korea and most likely China!

Consider this senario:
NK sells a small nuke to ISIS, for arguement's sake we'll assume that it could be small enough to fit in a "small" pleasure craft. Said craft leaves NK with nuke, travels to Alaska, via various small islands for fuel/diversionary action. Craft then travels down coast to Mexico as tourists. In a remote area of Mexico, nuke is off-loaded onto a small aircraft(a Cesna (sp) would work well), aircraft flies at low altitude through remote areas into U.S., then manuvers toward a large metro area, such as San Diego, gains altitude and detonates nuke.
Think it's outside of the capabilities of ISIS? Think again.

And of course- there are so many 'small pleasure' craft leaving North Korea that we would never notice it.

And of course U.S. Customs and the Coast Guard- and Canadian Customs and their Coast Guard- and Mexican Customs and their Coast Guard- would not notice- and would be certain not to carry their geiger counters on board.

Anything is possible- if you really, really want to worry about it. Russia could launch a nuclear attack against us- North Korea could- Pakistan could sell a nuke to ISIS(frankly a far more likely scenario).

What could be done to prevent every single possibility?

I certainly don't know.

What makes you soooo sure anyone would notice? We didn't notice when a bunch of Saudis went to commercial pilot school and had no interest in learning take-offs, and landings.... Just sayin'....

Of course we could miss something- but unlike within the United States, we do watch North Korea closely.

And yes- Customs and Coast Guard in Alaska, Canada and in Mexico do stop pleasure craft and at least in Canada and the U.S. do carry radiation detection equipment.

Maybe so, but that does not mean that we would find, let alone stop the craft in my senario. Besides, it was mearly one possible senario, there is no way that we could account for all possibilities. Therefore, stopping nuclear proliferation is the best course of action. If NK doesn't have one, they can't sell it to anyone, now can they?

 

[Syriusly]

I do not believe ISIL could deliver a Nuclear device to the U.S. or anywhere in North America, but would most likely use one against Israel or Saudi Arabia or even Iran.

They would have to obtain a device in North America for them to be able to use it here, and even though Mexico had that issue a few years back about stolen Nuclear waste the chances of a nuclear attack on our soil by ISIL is almost impossible.

North Korea would have to deliver them a rocket that they could use to fire it at this country and even then a transport of that rocket would be impossible.

Now could North Korea fire off a rocket for ISIL?

I believe they would if the right amount of money was given, but once it happen China along with North Korea and maybe even Russia will need to clinch their ass cheeks because hell will be unleashed on this Earth and when it done there will be nothing left of North Korea and most likely China!

Consider this senario:
NK sells a small nuke to ISIS, for arguement's sake we'll assume that it could be small enough to fit in a "small" pleasure craft. Said craft leaves NK with nuke, travels to Alaska, via various small islands for fuel/diversionary action. Craft then travels down coast to Mexico as tourists. In a remote area of Mexico, nuke is off-loaded onto a small aircraft(a Cesna (sp) would work well), aircraft flies at low altitude through remote areas into U.S., then manuvers toward a large metro area, such as San Diego, gains altitude and detonates nuke.
Think it's outside of the capabilities of ISIS? Think again.

And of course- there are so many 'small pleasure' craft leaving North Korea that we would never notice it.

And of course U.S. Customs and the Coast Guard- and Canadian Customs and their Coast Guard- and Mexican Customs and their Coast Guard- would not notice- and would be certain not to carry their geiger counters on board.

Anything is possible- if you really, really want to worry about it. Russia could launch a nuclear attack against us- North Korea could- Pakistan could sell a nuke to ISIS(frankly a far more likely scenario).

What could be done to prevent every single possibility?

I certainly don't know.

What makes you soooo sure anyone would notice? We didn't notice when a bunch of Saudis went to commercial pilot school and had no interest in learning take-offs, and landings.... Just sayin'....

Of course we could miss something- but unlike within the United States, we do watch North Korea closely.

And yes- Customs and Coast Guard in Alaska, Canada and in Mexico do stop pleasure craft and at least in Canada and the U.S. do carry radiation detection equipment.

Maybe so, but that does not mean that we would find, let alone stop the craft in my senario. Besides, it was mearly one possible senario, there is no way that we could account for all possibilities. Therefore, stopping nuclear proliferation is the best course of action. If NK doesn't have one, they can't sell it to anyone, now can they?

Absolutely true- but that horse has already left the barn in the case of NK

 

[oldsoul]

Consider this senario:
NK sells a small nuke to ISIS, for arguement's sake we'll assume that it could be small enough to fit in a "small" pleasure craft. Said craft leaves NK with nuke, travels to Alaska, via various small islands for fuel/diversionary action. Craft then travels down coast to Mexico as tourists. In a remote area of Mexico, nuke is off-loaded onto a small aircraft(a Cesna (sp) would work well), aircraft flies at low altitude through remote areas into U.S., then manuvers toward a large metro area, such as San Diego, gains altitude and detonates nuke.
Think it's outside of the capabilities of ISIS? Think again.

And of course- there are so many 'small pleasure' craft leaving North Korea that we would never notice it.

And of course U.S. Customs and the Coast Guard- and Canadian Customs and their Coast Guard- and Mexican Customs and their Coast Guard- would not notice- and would be certain not to carry their geiger counters on board.

Anything is possible- if you really, really want to worry about it. Russia could launch a nuclear attack against us- North Korea could- Pakistan could sell a nuke to ISIS(frankly a far more likely scenario).

What could be done to prevent every single possibility?

I certainly don't know.

What makes you soooo sure anyone would notice? We didn't notice when a bunch of Saudis went to commercial pilot school and had no interest in learning take-offs, and landings.... Just sayin'....

Of course we could miss something- but unlike within the United States, we do watch North Korea closely.

And yes- Customs and Coast Guard in Alaska, Canada and in Mexico do stop pleasure craft and at least in Canada and the U.S. do carry radiation detection equipment.

Maybe so, but that does not mean that we would find, let alone stop the craft in my senario. Besides, it was mearly one possible senario, there is no way that we could account for all possibilities. Therefore, stopping nuclear proliferation is the best course of action. If NK doesn't have one, they can't sell it to anyone, now can they?

Absolutely true- but that horse has already left the barn in the case of NK

True. So, in reality, the only thing we can do is attempt to make the potential consequences such that NK would rather not continue down a path undesirable to us. IMHO. In short, make it clear our retaliation for undesirable action on NK's part would be so devastating to them, that they would not take said action. Short of that, we can only prepair for the inevitable. If we can't/ are unwilling to stop them, we must be ready for as many contingancies as possible. This could include direct action against NK. I, personally, would see this option as a last resort, so I would rather put deterents in place. However distasteful they are, they would surely be better that the possible alternatives.