Next weeks 2009 election predictions.

[oreo]

Here is a list of the races to watch next Tuesday. Anyone care to make predictions on the outcomes:

1. Virginia Governor's race (Deeds-D; McDonnell-R)

2. New Jersey Governor's race (Corzine-D; Christie-R; Dagget-I)

3. New York 23rd House race (Owens-D; Hoffman-C) Scozzafava-R has dropped out.

4. California 10th House race (Tauscher-D; Harmer-R)

My predictions:

1. Virginia, Deeds is a goner, McDonnell by 10+

2. New Jersey, this race has tightened tremendously in the last month, but I think Corzine peaked just about a week too early, Christie is starting to move back up slowly and the independent candidate Dagget's support appears to be softening as people realize it is a choice between voting for Christie, or having four more years under Corzine. I give this to Christie by 2-4 points. To add--Barack Obama has been all over the state campaigning for Corzine--Bill Clinton has joined him. The problem--New Jersey is one of the highest taxed states in the nation. Citizens are complaining that they can no longer afford to live in N.J. & they & business are leaving the state in hoards. Is it possible that citizens in N.J are starting to think a little more conservative?

(If after all this campaigning from Obama--& Christie wins over Corzine or even loses in close election--this will shake the democrat party to it's core--as N.J. is the bluest of blue states.)

3. New York 23rd. Since rino republican Scozzafava has dropped out, Hoffman supported by Sarah Palin & other heavyweights in the Republican party is a sure win over Owens.

4. California 10th. This is a little watched race, the republican Harmer R against Tauscher D. Harmer according to the polls is within striking distance. I'll go out on a limb here & say Harmer--simply because Californian's like New Jerseyan's are sick & tired of a big spending high taxing liberal government. To add--Californians recently overwhelmingly voted down a tax increase. So they too may be thinking a little more conservative.

So--I'll go out on a limb & call this 4 for 4 for the GOP.

Your thoughts?

 

[Terry]

Here is a list of the races to watch next Tuesday. Anyone care to make predictions on the outcomes:

1. Virginia Governor's race (Deeds-D; McDonnell-R)

2. New Jersey Governor's race (Corzine-D; Christie-R; Dagget-I)

3. New York 23rd House race (Owens-D; Hoffman-C) Scozzafava-R has dropped out.

4. California 10th House race (Tauscher-D; Harmer-R)

My predictions:

1. Virginia, Deeds is a goner, McDonnell by 10+

2. New Jersey, this race has tightened tremendously in the last month, but I think Corzine peaked just about a week too early, Christie is starting to move back up slowly and the independent candidate Dagget's support appears to be softening as people realize it is a choice between voting for Christie, or having four more years under Corzine. I give this to Christie by 2-4 points. To add--Barack Obama has been all over the state campaigning for Corzine--Bill Clinton has joined him. The problem--New Jersey is one of the highest taxed states in the nation. Citizens are complaining that they can no longer afford to live in N.J. & they & business are leaving the state in hoards. Is it possible that citizens in N.J are starting to think a little more conservative?

(If after all this campaigning from Obama--& Christie wins over Corzine or even loses in close election--this will shake the democrat party to it's core--as N.J. is the bluest of blue states.)

3. New York 23rd. Since rino republican Scozzafava has dropped out, Owens supported by Sarah Palin & other heavyweights in the Republican party is a sure win over Hoffman.

4. California 10th. This is a little watched race, the republican Harmer R against Tauscher D. Harmer according to the polls is within striking distance. I'll go out on a limb here & say Harmer--simply because Californian's like New Jerseyan's are sick & tired of a big spending high taxing liberal government. To add--Californians recently overwhelmingly voted down a tax increase. So they too may be thinking a little more conservative.

So--I'll go out on a limb & call this 4 for 4 for the GOP.

Your thoughts?

Mcdonnell
Corizine +I think the ballots will be stuffed. lol
Hoffman but by a nose and it will be contested
Harmer the upset nobody saw coming.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Stranger things have happened, and I agree with Terry.

 

[oreo]

Stranger things have happened, and I agree with Terry.

Obama will be blitzing N.J. tommorrow --guess we'll have to see how many of the disgruntled with Corzine--he can persuade to vote for him again---

If ACORN is involved in this election it's a sure win for Corzine. But, it's Saturday night & Corzine & Christie are neck & neck or tied according to real clear politics.

 

[Terry]

Stranger things have happened, and I agree with Terry.

Obama will be blitzing N.J. tommorrow --guess we'll have to see how many of the disgruntled with Corzine--he can persuade to vote for him again---

If ACORN is involved in this election it's a sure win for Corzine. But, it's Saturday night & Corzine & Christie are neck & neck or tied according to real clear politics.

Some may think I'm crazy but I'm going to say it anyway. The purpose of having polls close is so that the ballots can be stuffed without attention. This is why every politician dem/rep strong hold state pay so much for those polls.

 

[oreo]

Stranger things have happened, and I agree with Terry.

Obama will be blitzing N.J. tommorrow --guess we'll have to see how many of the disgruntled with Corzine--he can persuade to vote for him again---

If ACORN is involved in this election it's a sure win for Corzine. But, it's Saturday night & Corzine & Christie are neck & neck or tied according to real clear politics.

Some may think I'm crazy but I'm going to say it anyway. The purpose of having polls close is so that the ballots can be stuffed without attention. This is why every politician dem/rep strong hold state pay so much for those polls.

I remember one poll very clearly. It was between Reagan & Carter. Polling data showed that race very close up until two days prior to the election. As you know Reagan won in a 49 state landslide.

But if you look at realclearpolitics---there are a ton of different N.J. polling data. I don't see how parties could buy all of them off.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Not quite 49 states, but a nice landslide the same.

1980 Electoral Map

 

[Meister]

I smell recounts coming.

 

[Sinatra]

Hoffman will win by 3-5 points - he has all the momentum now.

Corzine/Christie - too damn close to call. I will say Christie by a smidge - if she actually wins by more than a couple points, it will be a direct slap against Obama.

McDonnel has Virginia wrapped up. 7-10 point victory. It it ends up higher than 10 - it will be as much a denouncement against Obama as a state victory for McDonnel.

 

[Zander]

Not quite 49 states, but a nice landslide the same.

1980 Electoral Map

yeah, he was off by one election.....Reagan crushed Mondale in 84 - won 49 states and 58.8% of the popular vote.

 

[Mike458877]

I'm not willing to make any predictions.

However, I fear if we do not see a decisive shift away from the liberal monopoly in Washington, then we will be in trouble. More so than we may imagine!

Mike

 

[garyd]

I don't even know which district harmers running in so it would amn difficualt for me to make a sound Judgement. the New York one is an upstate district and upstate has always been more conservative than down state The conservative winds going away.

Corsine will win in a recount much the same way franken did when some asshole pulls a bunch of fraudulent ballots out of the trunk of his car.

McDonell wins handily.

 

[RonaldusMagnus]

Item 3.....Palin endorsed Hoffman. I believe you meant to say that Hoffman would win...

 

[oreo]

Item 3.....Palin endorsed Hoffman. I believe you meant to say that Hoffman would win...

Thanks--that's what I meant.

 

[oreo]

I'm not willing to make any predictions.

However, I fear if we do not see a decisive shift away from the liberal monopoly in Washington, then we will be in trouble. More so than we may imagine!

Mike

I think we're going to see it. Never before in my over 50 years have I seen Americans so ticked off at the government. Bail-outs--massive government spending & the ridiculous things they spend our money on--has put a thorn under most Americans saddles.

This is their chance to say no more. To add--Conservatives always show up for off year elections while democrats & liberals stay home.

This will come down to the "likely voters."

 

[Sinatra]

I'm not willing to make any predictions.

However, I fear if we do not see a decisive shift away from the liberal monopoly in Washington, then we will be in trouble. More so than we may imagine!

Mike

I think we're going to see it. Never before in my over 50 years have I seen Americans so ticked off at the government. Bail-outs--massive government spending & the ridiculous things they spend our money on--has put a thorn under most Americans saddles.

This is their chance to say no more. To add--Conservatives always show up for off year elections while democrats & liberals stay home.

This will come down to the "likely voters."

There is definitely some across the nation agitation at the present condition of Washington DC - more than we have seen since the late 1970s.

Big changes are coming folks...

 

[Modbert]

Corzine will win in NJ by a squeaker.

The Democrat in California will win.

Sadly, the sexist (McDonnell) will win in Virginia.

As for NY23, it will come down to whether those who were supporting the Republican candidate support Hoffman. Personally? I don't think he will win, especially since she hasn't endorsed Hoffman. Hoffman only had a 15% favorable rating with those who were voting for the Republican.

So I'll say Owens by 3-5 points. Though at this point, you might as well just call Hoffman a Republican since he's a neocon and not a Conservative.

 

[Annie]

I'm not willing to make any predictions.

However, I fear if we do not see a decisive shift away from the liberal monopoly in Washington, then we will be in trouble. More so than we may imagine!

Mike

I think we're going to see it. Never before in my over 50 years have I seen Americans so ticked off at the government. Bail-outs--massive government spending & the ridiculous things they spend our money on--has put a thorn under most Americans saddles.

This is their chance to say no more. To add--Conservatives always show up for off year elections while democrats & liberals stay home.

This will come down to the "likely voters."

I don't think we've ever seen anything like how people are feeling today, perhaps in the early 1930's? Noonan too addressed this last week:

Peggy Noonan: We're Governed by Callous Children - WSJ.com

OCTOBER 30, 2009, 4:27 P.M. ET
We're Governed by Callous Children
Americans feel increasingly disheartened, and our leaders don't even notice.
By PEGGY NOONAN

The new economic statistics put growth at a healthy 3.5% for the third quarter. We should be dancing in the streets. No one is, because no one has any faith in these numbers. Waves of money are sloshing through the system, creating a false rising tide that lifts all boats for the moment. The tide will recede. The boats aren't rising, they're bobbing, and will settle. No one believes the bad time is over. No one thinks we're entering a new age of abundance. No one thinks it will ever be the same as before 2008. Economists, statisticians, forecasters and market specialists will argue about what the new numbers mean, but no one believes them, either. Among the things swept away in 2008 was public confidence in the experts. The experts missed the crash. They'll miss the meaning of this moment, too.

The biggest threat to America right now is not government spending, huge deficits, foreign ownership of our debt, world terrorism, two wars, potential epidemics or nuts with nukes. The biggest long-term threat is that people are becoming and have become disheartened, that this condition is reaching critical mass, and that it afflicts most broadly and deeply those members of the American leadership class who are not in Washington, most especially those in business.

It is a story in two parts. The first: "They do not think they can make it better."...

 

[JenyEliza]

I predict Atlanta will have its first WHITE, CONSERVATIVE, REPUBLICAN Mayor since 1973, when Maynard (fatass) Jackson began the series of incompetent boobs elected Mayor because they were black, and ONLY because they were black.

Finally, FINALLY, the people of Atlanta are beginning to see the light.

You rock Mary Norwood!

 

[Modbert]

I predict Atlanta will have its first WHITE, CONSERVATIVE, REPUBLICAN Mayor since 1973, when Maynard (fatass) Jackson began the series of incompetent boobs elected Mayor because they were black, and ONLY because they were black.

Finally, FINALLY, the people of Atlanta are beginning to see the light.

You rock Mary Norwood!

Way to go out and call the African Americans in Atlanta racist.