Neubarth
At the Ballpark July 30th
This time it is about Existing Home Sales. The claim that came from the Government this morning was that Existing Home sales were up 5%, as if things are getting better.
Yet, if you follow the Trend from October and November and drew a line through the decline, we are still headed down. What they should have said was that the rate of decline is fairly consistent over the last half of a year, but since January was abnormally low, a return to the normal rate of decline is not so bad.
I watched the stock messages boards this morning after the misleading Federal Release (just like after the misleading retail sales release and the insane claim that Housing Starts were up 22% a week ago.) and people everywhere were parroting the Administration release and believing that house sales were climbing back to normal. A week ago they were claiming that new housing starts were skyrocketing when they were actually continuing their downward plunge. Lie after lie after lie after lie.
There is nothing normal about it. Everything is still going to hell.
Take advantage of bounces like this one as I have told you I try to do, but do not be totally lured into a market that can crash at any minute.
All the economic indicators are down. This "NEW" play by Geitner looks exactly like Paulson's plan that he scrapped. The only difference is that Geitner is trying to lure private investors into the market while the Gov still picks up the tab..
Why could Paulson give up on buying toxic assets and GEitner still wants to try the plan? I firmly believe that GEitner is in denial about how REALLY BIG the problem is.
There are 100 TRILLION out there in derivatives that can go bad. It looks like most of them are BAD BETS, and they are going to destroy all of our major banks and the European ones as well. GE is beginning to open up about their exposure and the ratings agencises are consequently lowering the rating on GE debt. The whole friggin world is in serious trouble and 500 Billion of Toxic asset purchases is just a drop of water in Niagra Falls. GEitner's plan is of little significance other than it made a bunch of fools buy into the market today.
I will only stop day trading the market when I see something that would indicate to me that the economy is starting to turn. So far it is all downhill.
Yet, if you follow the Trend from October and November and drew a line through the decline, we are still headed down. What they should have said was that the rate of decline is fairly consistent over the last half of a year, but since January was abnormally low, a return to the normal rate of decline is not so bad.
I watched the stock messages boards this morning after the misleading Federal Release (just like after the misleading retail sales release and the insane claim that Housing Starts were up 22% a week ago.) and people everywhere were parroting the Administration release and believing that house sales were climbing back to normal. A week ago they were claiming that new housing starts were skyrocketing when they were actually continuing their downward plunge. Lie after lie after lie after lie.
There is nothing normal about it. Everything is still going to hell.
Take advantage of bounces like this one as I have told you I try to do, but do not be totally lured into a market that can crash at any minute.
All the economic indicators are down. This "NEW" play by Geitner looks exactly like Paulson's plan that he scrapped. The only difference is that Geitner is trying to lure private investors into the market while the Gov still picks up the tab..
Why could Paulson give up on buying toxic assets and GEitner still wants to try the plan? I firmly believe that GEitner is in denial about how REALLY BIG the problem is.
There are 100 TRILLION out there in derivatives that can go bad. It looks like most of them are BAD BETS, and they are going to destroy all of our major banks and the European ones as well. GE is beginning to open up about their exposure and the ratings agencises are consequently lowering the rating on GE debt. The whole friggin world is in serious trouble and 500 Billion of Toxic asset purchases is just a drop of water in Niagra Falls. GEitner's plan is of little significance other than it made a bunch of fools buy into the market today.
I will only stop day trading the market when I see something that would indicate to me that the economy is starting to turn. So far it is all downhill.
